Week 11: Chiefs and Lions are Teams of Destiny

Winners win. Even when they're not having a great day. 

Last year the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with a top defense allowing 17 ppg and an offense scoring 22 ppg. 

This year the Chiefs defense is allowing 17 ppg and the offense is scoring 24 ppg. 

Now KC is really playing with house money. If they lose to the Bills, they're still 9-1 and on track to get the 1 seed. And honestly, it's probably better to get a loss out of the way, let the undefeated season conversation go out the window, and lock in for December and January. 

(Now any other year I would love for KC to go undefeated as it's one of the three ways to do something historic. But this year is all about getting that three-peat.)

Meanwhile in the NFC, the Lions are winning in regulation despite throwing 5 picks. 

National media is running graphics like this:

Of course nothing is guaranteed. 

Ravens and Bills are good. Eagles and Vikings are good. A Ravens-Eagles Super Bowl would not shock anyone. 

But here are the odds to get to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans:

Here are the odds to be the #1 seed:

And here are the odds to win the whole enchilada:

So the Chiefs are slightly more likely than the Lions, but take a look at the teams with shorter odds than 10-1. Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Bills. Three teams in the AFC. Only one team in the NFC.