I just watched that entire game. Fuck.

Comparing Football Nerds

Both Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight have published their probabilities this week, I thought I would compare them.

Chiefs Winning the AFC West
FO: 47.4%
FTE: 29.9%

Chiefs Making the Playoffs
FO: 87.6%
FTE: 83.5%

Chiefs Getting #1 Seed
FO: 21.8%
FTE: 14.4%

They are close enough on making the playoffs, but clearly Football Outsiders is higher on the Chiefs than FiveThirtyEight. Hmm

This Hurts My Head

Here are this week's odds from Football Outsiders...

The Chiefs have a 17.6% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. This is the same team that hasn't won a playoff game in 20 years.

Isn't Indy really low for a team that's a 87% chance of winning their division and thus getting a home playoff game?

Current possibility of a Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl? 2.34%

Winning the AFC West probabilities:
Broncos 51%
Chiefs 47%

State of Sports

Things have changed since the last time I did this...

The Chiefs have won all 5 games since last time and are now 7-3, same as the Broncos. They should make the playoffs and if they can beat the Broncos on November 30th, have a shot of taking the division.

The Avs are 25th in the NHL. They are 12th in the West. The seasons's basically 1/4 over. There's certainly time to turn it around. I'm going to the Hurricanes game Saturday (my birthday). I don't have a ton of faith. They have the roster and the coaching...but they just haven't been playing well enough.

Illinois Basketball is kicking off. Scored 114 points, more than they ever scored during the great teams we saw from 2001-05. Key games against Miami, Villanova, Oregon and Missouri highlight the non-conference schedule.

Illinois Football doesn't warrant mention.

Tasty Salted Pig Parts is going to the playoffs for the first time in the 6-year history of Burnsy Sucks. Law of averages says that I would have made it twice in 6 years. Maybe I'll get the #1 seed. I like my team. We'll see.

Super Bowl Choke Job is also going to the playoffs in the first year of the work league. I'll most likely be the #2 seed. 2-week playoffs in weeks 14/15 and 16/17. I feel better about my chances over 2 weeks. I've got Josh Gordon. I don't have Peterson.

I'm crushing it in Calcutta. Packers, Cardinals, Cowboys are all legit contenders in the NFC. Patriots and Chiefs are contenders in the AFC.

The only other update from last time...the Royals finished their season one base away. I want to write about their run at some point. It was fun while it lasted.

Breaking Down Melvin Gordon's Historic Day

On Saturday, Melvin Gordon broke LaDainian Tomlinson's record for rushing yards in a game. But there's more to it that meets the eye. This is the play by play for Gordon's runs. Each number is number of rushing yards.

First Quarter
NEB 0 WIS 0
-1
NEB 3 WIS 0
3
NEB 10 WIS 0
5
42
NEB 10 WIS 3
1
-1 (lost fumble)
Second Quarter
NEB 17 WIS 3
2
2
62 (touchdown)
NEB 17 WIS 10
8
3
16 (lost fumble)
39
NEB 17 WIS 17
44
9
4
Third Quarter
NEB 17 WIS 24
9
4
43
1 (touchdown)
NEB 17 WIS 31
68
6 (touchdown)
NEB 17 WIS 38
7
6
NEB 17 WIS 45
26 (touchdown)


There it is. That's how you have the greatest game for a college running back ever.
A couple things to look at.

1. Two lost fumbles. Against a ranked opponent that's enough to lose you the game or get you benched. Not here.

2. Nebraska was up 17-3 in the 2nd quarter. On 3rd and 6, the Badger QB converts a first down. If that doesn't happen, the drive is over and Gordon can't run for 62 on the next play. If they give the ball back to the Huskers there and they go up 24-3, maybe there's not as many rushing opportunities...it's a bit of a stretch to say that Wisconsin would abandon the run considering their identity, but down big most teams don't run as much as they do normally.

3. He had two carries, and then they were down 10-0. There's often a lot of out of one player's hands.

4. He had exactly one run that gained between 10-25 yards and he lost a fumble on it. He had 7 carries for 25+. If you let him get 10, he was gone.

5. 2nd and 3rd string running backs averaged 6 and 9 yards per carry, bringing the team average per carry down to 11 yards.

6. His 1-yard touchdown and 6-yard touchdown brought down his average. Without those touchdown, he averaged 17.4 yards per carry.

7. Oh yeah, and Nebraska has a good run defense (well, had) and Gordon only played three quarters. Truly historic.

Blast from the Past

The following video was recorded on October 19, 2005. It was captured via a digital camera pointed at my TV in my studio apartment. It was then emailed to Mark.

It actually predates what is now Hoagie Central. That was launched on November 14, 2005 and backfilled with posts gathered from emails.

Anyways, I fucked up in the voiceover. I'm Ohio State who has the ball on the Penn State 38. I'm up 7-0 in the 2nd quarter but facing 4th and 17. Too long for a field goal. But punting doesn't gain that much field position...

Going Streaking

6 teams in the NFL have a winning streak of more than 1 game. 

Arizona and New England own the rights to the "hottest team in the league" but the Chiefs are right behind them.

On the other end of the spectrum, 8 teams have a losing streak of more than one game. The Raiders...Christ.

For Fuck's Sake

Get your shit together, Indy.

That is the last team I want to play. The Chiefs are on a 0-7 playoff streak dating back to 1994. 4 of those 7 have been against the Colts. In my modern era,  I've seen 4 playoff games. 3 against the Colts. After last year, I could go Luck's entire career without playing them and be happy.

If Indy falls to the 4th, the Chiefs should absolutely do what they can to drop to the 6th spot.

1.53% Chance of Apocalypse

So these numbers are five days old, calculated before the Chiefs beat the Seahawks and the current Lions-Cardinals game, but I don't want to wait 2 days for more numbers.

According to Football Outsiders on 11/11/14, Detroit had a riduculous 18.6% chance of getting to the Super Bowl. Detroit!

And the Chiefs had a 8.2% chance. That will go up.

If the Cardinals hang on to their 8-point lead, the Lions numbers will go down. But still...

You combine those numbers and you see that there is a 1.53% chance of a Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl.

Drinking the Goddamn Kool-Aid

The last year with Romeo Crennel and Scott Pioli and Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn...the Chiefs were 2-14, the worst team in the league.

Since then, with Andy Reid and John Dorsey and Alex Smith...the Chiefs are 16-8, finished 8th in the league last year, 6th in the league currently.

I was wrong about Smith. Here's to a Alex Smith-Drew Stanton Super Bowl.

Chiefs Beat Champs, Broncos Fall To Rams

Ho Ho Ho Motherfuckers

I don't know why that's what popped into my head, but I'm going with it. The Chiefs just knocked off the defending champs. The Broncos have lost to the Patriots, Rams and Seahawks--the Chiefs have beaten all of them.

The Chiefs and Broncos both have 3 home games and 3 road games left.

Worse case scenario at 7-3 with a 5-2 conference record and a win over Miami and New England, plus two games agains the Raiders, the Chiefs should absolutely make the playoffs. The 5-seed looks very much in grasp. I would love, love, love to play the AFC North Champ this year, even if it is on the road.

But...say the Chiefs beat the Broncos on November 30th. That puts them 1 game ahead in the standings. If the Chiefs win their other divisional games (2 vs Raiders, home vs Chargers)...they would own the tiebreaker over the Broncos. Which means they could drop 1 of Cardinals/Steelers and still take the division. Or if the Broncos slip up again, the Chiefs could drop 2. If the Broncos lose to San Diego, then the Chiefs could do the same.

So there it is. Win vs Oakland, get to 8-3 and then a game for first place in the division against the Broncos. Seriously. This is happening.

Orange Hush

Yes, Orange Hush is cool. But what happens after is even better.

The Broncos have NEVER beaten the Chiefs three times in the same year. So if Denver wins in a couple weeks, you know they don't want any part of Kansas City.

Seriously, if the Chiefs can hold onto the 5 seed and get to play an AFC North team in the opening playoff game, I would be really happy. I don't want any part of the Colts.

playoff standings

I would sign up for Chiefs @ Browns in a heartbeat.

Also, are the Lions actually going to get a first-round bye?

The burger bet is very much in play. Although hosting any of the Eagles, Saints, Cowboys or Seahawks is not that enticing of a playoff matchup. I guess they Lions would be a favorite against the Saints, but that might be it.

First Look at Illini Basketball Uniforms

The zigzag...looks better than expected? Kind of snazzy, no?