Week 1 Overreactions

A year ago, after week 1 I picked Chiefs and Eagles to be in the conference championship games. Let's get it right again.

NFC Championship will be Cowboys at 49ers. 

AFC Championship will be ... Jaguars at Dolphins? No that can't be right. I'd still lean towards Bengals/Chiefs this year, but I don't really think the Chiefs are going to have a great season...so could be a Bills or Bengals or Jaguars random breakthrough year. Too early to say on the AFC side. 

new banner, who dis

bad vibes

Man, between how hard it is to repeat plus the Chris Jones contract situation plus the Kelce injury situation, it's real bad vibes to start the year for the Chiefs. 

At this point, I would not expect KC to be hosting the AFC Championship this year. If I was Kirat, I'd regret spending $13.30 on them. 

NFL Calcutta Auction Thoughts

With only 4 of us, we each got roughly 8 teams. I've color coded them by division for a moment.

I was able to get one team from every division.

Meanwhile, Kirat got 2 AFC West and 3 in the NFC West, meaning he has no coverage in the NFC East, NFC North, or AFC South. 

Mark and Matt are each covering 6 of 8 divisions. 

- - -

Let's compare each roster against Hoagie Central's official predictions. I'll just do a rundown of my position finish in each division, sorted by most expensive to least expensive:

Mark: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 4th

Matt: 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 4th, 4th

Kirat: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 3rd

Dave: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st

I think Chiefs, Bills and Bengals all win their divisions but I didn't draft them because they were too expensive. 

But I got the 4 teams I picked to win NFC divisions and my four AFC comprise 1 division winner and the three-wild card teams according to Hoagie Central projections. Basically, I did as good as I possibly could based on auctioning according to my NFL Preview. 

There were teams that I wanted in the moment like Saints, Ravens, Bengals, Seahawks, but I'm very happy with the roster I've built. 

2023 NFL Preview

The only NFL preview that has nailed the Super Bowl winner twice in the last four years!*

AFC West

We start with the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. 

(Pause for 10 minutes to bask in the glory of that sentence.)

I'm back. Mahomes, Kelce and Reid. We're still in Phase 1 of Mahomes' career. One day Kelce won't be here anymore and Reid should retire before Mahomes too. In 2033, Mahomes will be making a playoff run as a 37-year-old quarterback with literally zero players from today's team. And that's fine. But for now, he's got Reid and Kelce and life is good.

It was January of 2023 the last time we saw the Chargers play football. They were up 27-0 in the playoffs and lost. 

Russ Wilson will be better this year because he has to be. He couldn't be any worse than dogshit, which is what he was last year. Sean Payton will help. 

The Raiders swap Derek Carr for Jimmy G. 

It seems too easy, but I think Chiefs win the division, Chargers are a wild-card team, Broncos 3rd and Raiders 4th but it's close.

AFC North

Bengals are still the class of the division, but the Burrow injury makes me nervous. I kinda thought Cinci would fall back to earth last year (saying they were a 10 win team that overachieved in 2021 and predicted them to win 6-9 games. They won 12.) I'll stick with them to win the division and win 11-12 games but if they fall back to earth this year and fail to make the playoffs, I'll still count that as being correct for not believing in them as a concept. 

Steelers are on the rise. I think Kenny Pickett outperforms expectations and Steelers make the wild-card.

Seems kinda clear that Lamar's MVP season back in 2019 was the outlier. They've won between 8 and 11 games every year for the last three, going 11, 8, 10. Let's pencil them in for 9 wins this year to complete the set. 

I'm still skeptical on Watson on the Browns. If he stinks again, it wouldn't surprise anybody.  

Bengals, Steelers, Ravens, Browns. 

AFC South

All aboard the Trevor Lawrence hype train. If they get blown out 27-0 in the playoffs, this hype train might not leave the station. But they didn't. They've got Lawrence ascending and Ridley is going to bet on himself this year and finish as a top 10 receiver. 

Titans have Derrick Henry and D Hop. If this was 4 years ago, this could be really exciting. 

Anthony Richardson will produce some highlight reel plays, but also plenty of picks. Colts will still be bad this year. 

Same story for the Texans but without a ton of hope on the horizon. 

Jags, Titans, Texans, Colts. 

AFC East

This is a fun division now. 

Rodgers and Dalvin Cook to the Jets. A ton of young talent there already. But they're still the Jets, you know?

The Bills have gone from Super Bowl darling to not even the most hyped in their division. 

The Dolphins are fun and if Tua could stay healthy would be a force to be reckoned with. 

Which leaves Bill B in charge of the worst team in the division?

Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Pats.

AFC Playoff Picks

1 Chiefs

2 Bills

3 Jags

4 Bengals

5 Jets

6 Chargers

7 Steelers

NFC West

Cardinals suck. 

49ers have a great team and are rolling with Brock Purdy. 

Seahawks found a way to cook without Russ. 

Rams still have memories of the Super Bowl win, that's something.

49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals.

NFC North

One of my favorite bits on Hoagie Central is that in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 I just didn't mention the Lions at all. Even last year, I picked the Bears to finish last and didn't consider the Lions worth mentioning. Starting in 2019, I predicted the Lions to finish 4th, 4th, 4th, 3rd. They actually finished 4th, 4th, 4th, 2nd. But all that has changed. 

Goff is a new man with the OC in Detroit and they've got the Sun God. Just figure out a way to block the gambling sites from the hotel wi-fi and this team could sniff the playoffs. 

The Packers finally move on from Rodgers and will still probably be good. 

The Bears have Fields. Now they just need to figure out how to win games. 

The Vikings are always going to be good not great with this Cousins-Jefferson combo. 

This is the closest division in my eyes. All four teams have a path to finishing first or last. 

Since I have to guess, I think Bears finish last. If the Lions had less injuries/suspensions I might have them winning the division, but I'll guess 3rd this year, narrowly behind the Vikings. I've got a good feeling about Love. Packers 1st.

NFC South

This is the first year in a looooooong time that Tom Brady is not in the NFL. Wow. 

Are any of these teams good?

Saints have Derek Carr, Falcons have Bijan. Panthers and Bucs have???

Let's go Falcons first, Saints second, Panthers third, Bucs last.

NFC East

I'm a huge believer in Super Bowl hangovers. The Eagles were great last year but they had an easy schedule and they've lost a ton of their defense. My Hurts stock has mooned and that's great, but Philly won't be winning 14 games this year. 

Let Tony Pollard cook. Last year Cowboys were consensus favorite and I zagged thinking they couldn't win the division two years in a row. Now, I'm assuming Eagles are the favorite, so I'll go back to believing in Dallas. 

I just saw the Giants win a playoff game and yet I refuse to believe in Danny Dimes and this team. 

Commanders are starting the Sam Howell era. Good luck. 

Cowboys first, Eagles, Giants, Commanders. 

Still seems like there aren't any good teams in the NFC. 

NFC Playoff Picks

1 49ers 

2 Packers

3 Cowboys

4 Falcons

5 Eagles

6 Saints

7 Seahawks

Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas:

49ers over Chiefs

*This probably isn't true, but I'm not going to check. Also turns out just picking the Chiefs 4 years in a row once we found out Mahomes is great is a pretty good strategy.

2023 Ironman Projections

Here's Mark's starters:

And his bench:

Note that Kamara starts the year on a 3-game suspension, but will likely join the starters once back. 

Here's my starters:

And my bench:

My starters are projected to outscore Mark's by 3 points a game. The whole Kamara suspension issue makes the projections a little cloudy. Also, it's not about points on paper, so it doesn't matter anyways. 

ps5 skateboarding: session

After revisiting the timeless Tony Hawk most recently on the ps4, I checked out a realistic skateboarding simulator called Session: Skate Sim on the ps5. Instead of pressing a button to grind, you actually have to line up your board up with the rail. Forget about pulling together combos of 10x+, just completing a successful grind or a specific flip trick feels like an accomplishment.

Ironman Draft Strategy + Thoughts

Now that Mark and I have completed our 2023 Ironman draft, I wanted to peel back the curtain and reveal my thoughts on certain players, get stuff on the record before the season started. 

This was the very first roster I put together for the year. 

I considered not taking Mahomes, but it seemed too risky. 

At RB1, I debated back and forth between Chubb and Bijan all week. Liked both, was going to handcuff either one. 

RB2 was Pollard all the way. 

Flex spot originally was going to be Dameon Pierce. At one point I was leaning towards him as my #1 overall pick because I thought as a lead back he was great value at only costing 23. But the more I read, the more it seemed like he was going to be in a committee and not a true lead back. So he went from #1 overall to off my board. 

AJ Brown and Amon Ra stayed on my boards throughout the process. 

I bought into Evan Engram hype and so I upgraded Frymouth to Engram, hopefully.

Goff was my go-to backup QB. 

Dalvin Cook seemed like great value, but I got worried about him getting older, and being injured, and being on a new team...he wasn't awesome on my team last year, so I ended up dumping him. 

And I considered MVS, and Toney and Skyy. Eventually landed on Skyy. 

Here's the team I ended up with:

Ended up going Ridley as Flex instead of a Pierce.

Swapped Goff for Lawrence at the last minute, in an effort to block a starter from Mark's team.

Other big change was my Bench RB was supposed to be James Cook on the Bills. But going for Lawrence, meant switching to Herbert.

Instead of Chubb/Ford, I wanted Bijan/Allgeier because I thought I could potentially start both in a crunch, which wouldn't be the case with Chubb/Ford.

Here's Mark's team.

I looked at Jefferson and Kelce, but while they're great, I couldn't justify the cost, especially for Kelce.

Chubb was on my almost final big board and Goff was on my final board, but I moved off both before Mark took them, so he didn't actually block any. 

I glanced at Lockett and Kamara but not a serious look.

I thought Toney was interesting but too injured to take seriously. 

Didn't look at Conklin or Wilson.

- - -

In the end, happy with my roster. If James Cook outperforms Khalil Herbert by a significant margin, that will be one I'll kick myself over. 

I wonder, if I had taken Goff as scheduled, who Mark would have pivoted to. He says maybe Tua. So that would be something to watch, Goff vs Tua.

Other players I considered but didn't end up taking: Etienne, Saquon, Waddle.

At one point I had Davante Adams + Dameon Pierce, but I just never was excited about Davante. 

NYT Connections: Archive + Custom Puzzles

Following on their acquisition of Wordle, The New York Times has a new word game called Connections.

It's fun. But the official site is missing the archive. To find that you need to go here: Connections Archive

In addition, this site allows users to make their own puzzles. So far, I've made four:

Volume 1

Volume 2

Volume 3

Volume 4

And Kirat has made one so far as well: 

Episode 1

Soundscapes

The OG "time to get classy recipe" (open all 3 tabs below)

    Crackling Fire: https://endlessvideo.com/watch?v=DIx3aMRDUL4

    Rainy Mood https://endlessvideo.com/watch?v=aDfZ6STAfqA&start=

    Godot - The Fragrance of Dark Coffee https://endlessvideo.com/watch?v=HMnrl0tmd3k

The nice thing about making soundscapes with multiple youtube tabs, is that youtube has an audio slider so you can season to taste. Something like 100% fire, 75% rain, 50% music is a good starting point.

Someone made this mix of the same song with just the rain if you're a one tab kind of person:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chhksy7wmWY&ab_channel=Chiyo-chichi

Or maybe you just want fire and rain in one tab:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWLUJHtlYyM&ab_channel=CaveSound

    

If you wanted to mix it up you could go:

    Charlie Parker: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9IMBcZaEyY&ab_channel=SaxophoneMusic

    Cozy Fireplace: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVgLKoPsK3c&ab_channel=FOBOSPLANET

    Light Rain: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPNvMeP8mQI&ab_channel=Sleep%26Relaxation

Or maybe you want more of a true noir soundscape, so you pick one of these:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEI2zet48Uc&ab_channel=Dr.SaxLove

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CudYgvGGcgY&ab_channel=NochesdeInsomnio

and for variety, instead of rain, you pair it with some ocean waves:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btmjDyff6E8&ab_channel=NaturalezaViva-SonidosyPaisajesIncre%C3%ADbles

If you're into lo-fi, I recommend Tokyo Tones:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0CVUCO1g8I&ab_channel=TOKYOTONES

For a Coffee Shop vibe you can combine the music:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwol3Y9ivns

with the ambiance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjiODnEYKzM&ab_channel=RainRiderAmbience

For chill + focus, here's a nice mix of beats:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx5N2TeDqNM&list=PLawU8_LLwsoaKjnv6dNUx4SOh1hCHH7uC&index=35&ab_channel=ChrisRamsay

For sleepy times, this one has some ambient music and rain mixed in one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8GrqUSdzi0&ab_channel=SoothingRelaxation

This is my 432 hz focus for work writing track:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWLVBP3VrO4&ab_channel=MeditationandHealing

But if 432 hz isn't enough hertz, you can always go up to 528 hz:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeMAzOqN7jY&list=PLawU8_LLwsoaKjnv6dNUx4SOh1hCHH7uC&index=25&ab_channel=SpiritTribeAwakening

This one's good for massages:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZbuj3RJcjI&list=PLawU8_LLwsoaKjnv6dNUx4SOh1hCHH7uC&index=37&ab_channel=MeditationRelaxMusic

Or perhaps, you're more into Native American flute music:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST56ATKfgfs&list=PLawU8_LLwsoaKjnv6dNUx4SOh1hCHH7uC&index=27&ab_channel=NuMeditationMusic

Finally, if you're ready for some tropical tranquil waves, here you go:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnGbwEO8ezY&ab_channel=MyTranquilitee

(this pairs nicely with the 432 hz track, for example)

thps vibes only

Tony Hawk Pro Skater videos normally look like this, with big combos and points and special bars and there's just generally a lot going on visually on the screen.

So I thought, what if I did a different kind of video. No points or trick names on the screen. Just go for stuff that feels fun. The original intent was trying to make an realistic skate video where jumping over one stairset is a cool trick, but then I started doing less realistic stuff too. But still this isn't about points. It's just skating. 

 

Chiefs Thoughts in the Year of our Lord 2023

So I found this a while back:

Lots of thoughts here.

First, 2019 was my personal favorite season of all time and it seems impossible to break as it was the first time seeing Chiefs in the Super Bowl, win the Super Bowl. And as it turns out, it was the greatest Chiefs season of all time too.

So the Chiefs made the Super Bowl in 2020 and that team doesn't crack the top 8. But the 2018 team is #2. That was the 50-td, 5000-yard, Mahomes MVP in his first season as a starter year. Which means that in 2018, Mahomes comes into the league and in his first season, leads the team to the greatest year in their 60-year history. Then tops it the next year. 

It also confirms that 2018 team was Super Bowl caliber, but all it takes is not executing for one half of the AFC Championship to end your season. (Also, Dee Ford lining up one step backwards would have helped.)

But it's wild that the 2020 Chiefs made it to Super Bowl LV and weren't a top-8 season in franchise history. They were a 1-seed and rolled to the Super Bowl, beating Buffalo by 14 in the AFC title game.

Equally wild: There are 3 non-Mahomes seasons that were allegedly better than the 2022 winners of Super Bowl LVII. 

1997: Chiefs went 13-3 and earned the #1 seed but lost in the divisional round at home, with a Grbac/Gannon qb controversy. This team was better than the 2022 Chiefs???

2003: I've written a lot about this team, this team was very important to my life. Nice to see them represented, but still...

2015: This team won the first playoff game of my life, so I'm grateful for that...but this team started the year 1-5. They're better than a 14-3 Mahomes Super Bowl winning team? Um....no.

- - -

If you're a fan of the Bills or Bengals, you've gotta be so pissed watching Netflix's Quarterback reflecting on what happened last year. You see Mahomes have an ankle injury aggravated in all three playoff games and the Chiefs still win it all.

Mahomes doesn't get enough credit for that playoff run, playing through that injury. He turned in the best QB regular season of all time and then wins the Super Bowl despite being injured in all three games.

- - - 

We've seen 5 seasons of Mahomes and gotten 3 Super Bowl appearances, 2 rings. This will never not be insane.

quick chess update

After not playing competitively in a long time, I fired it up, got paired with a 935 and won. Raised my rating to 915, which is now better than 3 out of 4 players on chess.com. 

Chiefs Super Bowl LVII Ring