Board Games by Year Acquired

Sometimes people ask "What was your gateway game?" I didn't really have an answer so I went back and labeled when I got every game in my collection.

Childhood: Scrabble, Monopoly, Clue, Scotland Yard,

2009: Ticket To Ride, Pandemic

2010: Lost Cities, Cleopatra

2012: Settlers of Catan

2013: Clue: The Great Museum Caper, Zombie Dice, Forbidden Island

2015: A Duel Betwixt Us, Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective, Roll For It, Police Precinct, Flash Point, Carcassonne, Splendor, New York 1901, Labyrinth, Escape, Love Letter, Tsuro, Sushi Go, Burgle Bros, Codenames, Pandemic Legacy

2016: Onirim, Hostage Negotiator, Dead of Winter, CV, Deception: Murder in Hong Kong, Friday, Castle Panic, Eldritch Horror

- - -

So 2015 was sort of a turning point. I'm going to break it down by months:

January: A Duel Betwixt Us
May: Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective
June: Tsuro
July: Roll For It, Carcassonne, Love Letter
September: Codenames
October: New York 1901, Pandemic Legacy, Burgle Bros, Escape
December: Police Precinct, Flash Point, Labyrinth, Sushi Go, Splendor

- - -

So the first board games that I purchased were Ticket To Ride and Pandemic on the same day. They were Christmas presents for Brit--I was looking for something that we could do together besides watch TV.

Over the next few years, I got a game or two here or there, but it was very much a minor hobby. After getting Tsuro for Father's Day (which was on a list for years but I never pulled the trigger) I got deeper into reading about games over the summer. At this point almost everything I had gotten I'd heard about via Tabletop, but now I was learning about games from all sorts of places.

Codenames was the first game that I pre-ordered and first time I got a game through a niche board game site instead of Amazon.

So, Ticket to Ride and Pandemic were my gateway games. And it wasn't really a certain game that triggered my resurgence in 2015, but Codenames was the first game I picked up after it became a more serious hobby.

Looks like I'll be dabbing during the Super Bowl. Let's go Panthers!

Classic

Roy's Avs are always outshot, but are currently sitting in a playoff spot.

Pull That Goalie!

Avs have scored more goals with their goalie pulled than Sharks, Bruins, Ducks, Flyers, Jets, Lightning, Islanders and Blues combined.

Avs are tied with Maple Leafs for 7 goals scored with the extra attacker, leading the league.

West Playoff Odds on Jan 21

Still 31 games to be played. Let's see how this compares to the final results, eh?

Lies

Clearly over the net. Come on.

Habs' Playoff Chances

Can you actually have a 99+% chance of making the playoffs in the NHL in December?

Passer Rating is Almost Always King

In 3 out of this weekend's 4 games, the team with the better passer rating won. The exception? The Broncos.

Once again, here is the regular season ranking of the remaining quarterbacks by passer rating.

3. Palmer
4. Brady
8. Newton
34. Manning 

Best Season of My Life Comes To A Close

The Patriots just played better. I think they're a better team and they executed better.

I said to win the Chiefs would need to win the turnover battle and the sack battle. They did neither. They had no pass rush and couldn't stop the Pats from scoring. They had a couple of chances for picks but couldn't hang on to it. And Knile Davis who was a star last week, fumbled and lost the ball.

I am more than satisfied with this season. Even if we lose the next playoff game we're in, we don't have to hear about a 23 year losing streak. As of this morning we had the best winning streak in the league and finally won a playoff game. Can't complain too much about any of that.

Injury Report for Today's Game

Dave P (stomach bug)
Kids Q (attention span)
Brit OUT (apathy)

The Helpful Eight

Going into the playoffs, I was actually confident in Alex Smith. Over the last three years, he's been good--solid, limits turnovers, usually in that range of top 10-15 quarterbacks, maybe just outside the top ten.

But during this winning streak, something changed. He was actually attempting throws into tight windows down the field. And completing them. See more here. To the point where I didn't think he was as good as Rodgers or Brady, but that he might be an excellent playoff quarterback. When you need to limit turnovers, make plays with your feet and make clutch throws.

Then I saw this article: Ranking The Playoff QBs

Before I read it, I was thinking Smith would be in the top 4. Then I read it. And I was almost surprised they had him that high at #5. What I didn't factor in, is how many good quarterbacks there are left in the playoffs. (The Helpful Eight)

We all know there's a lot more to a team than just their quarterback. But seeing that ranking got me thinking: you really need to have a great quarterback to get here. So let's test that out.

Here's the list of the teams based on 2015 regular season passer rating: (playoff teams in italics, active playoff teams in bold, )

1. Seahawks
2. Bengals
3. Cardinals
4. Patriots
5. Washington
6. Saints
7. Bills
8. Panthers
9. Lions
10. Chiefs
11. Steelers
12. Chargers
13. Giants
14. Browns (McCown)
15. Packers
16. Bears
17. Titans
18. Texans (Hoyer)
...
22. Vikings
25. Broncos (Osweiler)
34. Broncos (Manning)



8 of the top 11 QBs made the playoffs.
6 of the top 11 QBs are still alive.

4 playoff teams had QBs outside the top 11.
2 playoff teams are still alive with QBs outside the top 11.

One of them is Aaron Rodgers, who many would say is the best quarterback in the game, just had a down year.
The other is a true outlier. The Denver Broncos who earned the top seed despite poor quarterback play.

The Saints, Bills and Lions got good quarterback play but I guess didn't have a strong enough team around them to make the playoffs.

If you look at the wild-card games, the team with the better quarterback play won in 3 out of 4 games. The exception? Bridgewater had a better game than Wilson, but Walsh shanked the kick.

So yes, it's a team game. But quarterback is still the most important position. We'll see if better quarterback play means wins through the rest of the playoffs.

Chiefs vs Patriots

The Patriots are favored by 5 and that feels right. Maybe a little high? Pats by 4 or 3.5 would also make sense to me.

The Pats started 6-0. The Chiefs 1-5.
The Pats finished. 6-4. The Chiefs 10-0.
At this point, both teams have won 12 games this year.

Pats are 7-1 at home. Chiefs are 6-3 on the road counting the playoff game.

The Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles for the season and Maclin is banged up. The Patriots had a number of players injured, some or most may be seeing their first action in a while.

The weather looks to be rainy, cold, possibly snowy. The Chiefs played 3 games in a row in the rain during in their winning streak.

What The Chiefs Need To Do To Win

They need to play their best football in all phases.

Marcus Peters has racked up the interceptions but he's still a rookie who can get beat for big plays. The pass rush needs to be consistently strong and the defense will need to create takeaways. I'd say at least two for a good chance of winning.

The offense needs to do a better job than they did last week. They need to protect the ball but also generate big plays to Kelce and Maclin?/Conley/Wilson. If the Patriots focus on Kelce/Maclin, the other guys will have to step up. Alex Smith has generated big plays by scrambling and that will need to continue. West and Ware will need to be able to get yards and first down and pick up 3rd down conversions.

Special teams has been a strength. So yeah, it would be good for Santos to keep making field goals and Colquitt to pin them deep.

The Chiefs path to winning definitely includes winning the turnover battle and sustaining long drives.

What The Patriots Need To Do To Win

If their offense is healthy, they need to execute. It starts with protecting Brady to give their receivers time to get open. I don't expect them to run much even in the rain. I think the most important battle in the game will be Pats O-line vs Chiefs pass rush.

On defense, they'll look to take away big plays forcing the Chiefs to pick up first down after first down, where one incomplete or sack can stall a drive.

Gronk and Edelman will get their yards and scores, so the Chiefs have their work cut out for them.

Conclusion

If the Chiefs win the turnover battle by +2 and win the sack battle by +3, I'd expect them to win. If they can't do both of those, I'd expect the Patriots to win.

2016 NFL Cities

Using this list of most populated metro areas, I thought it would be interesting to cross-reference with the 2016 NFL teams, counting Raiders as Oakland, and Chargers as LA.

1. Giants and Jets
2. Rams and Chargers
3. Bears
4. Cowboys
5. Texans
6. Eagles
7. Washington
8. Dolphins
9. Falcons
10. Patriots
11. 49ers and Raiders
12. Cardinals
13. (none - Riverside, CA)
14. Lions
15. Seahawks
16. Vikings
17. (none - San Diego, CA)
18. Bucs
19. (none - St. Louis, MO)
20. Ravens
21. Broncos
22. Panthers
23. Steelers
24. (none - Portland, OR)
25. (none - San Antonio, TX)
26. (none - Orlando, FL)
27. (none - Sacramento, CA)
28. Bengals
29. Chiefs
30. (none - Las Vegas, NV)
31. Browns
32. (none - Columbus, OH)
33. Colts
...
36. Titans
40. Jaguars
45. Saints
50. Bills
...
157. Packers

- - -

With Riverside being so close to LA, it really seems like St. Louis and San Diego are now the top two cities deserving of a NFL franchise. Hmmm.

Portland, San Antonio, and Las Vegas all seem at least as viable as Nashville and Jacksonville.

Hope

I was afraid of something over the last couple years. That once the Chiefs finally won a playoff game that I wouldn't be content. That I would be greedy. After years of saying "just win a damn game" that I'd be longing for more.

And yes, of course, I'd like the Chiefs to win this weekend. If they actually win this weekend, I'd actually start thinking about the Super Bowl and that's more than I can even handle right now. But you know what? I'm genuinely content. They won a damn game. They won a game and made it to the divisional round. And there's something special about that.

Because now we're in the final 8 teams. All 8 teams are playing. There aren't better teams sitting out. Everyone is on the line. And sure some teams are home teams and some are favored by the spread. But once you get on that field, anybody has a chance.

The other thing that's special? There are playoff teams eliminated. The Texans, Bengals, Vikings, and Washington all won their divisions, which means they had a good season. And they're already done. They never had a chance to hope.

This whole week is joy. It's 7 days where your team is a winner, still alive, while others are not. Your team has hope. You're on the front pages of NFL.com.

You're in the discussion. I get to talk to the Broncos, Patriots, Steelers and Packers fans at work. And that's something.

The 2003 Chiefs had a better regular season record (13-3) but were one and done in the divisional round. These Chiefs won a postseason game which means this is the best Chiefs season I've ever seen.

It's really hard to wrap my head around, that the best Chiefs season I've ever seen was one where they started 1-5.

Divisional Round

Since 2003, this is the second time the Chiefs have been playing in the divisional round. If that was determined by random, you'd expect one of those every four years, or between 3 and 4 for any time since that time. But of course, it's not random.

The Patriots have been to the divisional round 11 times out of 13. 

The Jaguars have been once. 

None of the Browns, Lions, Bengals, Bills, Dolphins, Bucs, and Raiders have been once since 2003. 

So twice since 2003 isn't ideal, but it's better than nothing.