Chiefs vs Patriots

The Patriots are favored by 5 and that feels right. Maybe a little high? Pats by 4 or 3.5 would also make sense to me.

The Pats started 6-0. The Chiefs 1-5.
The Pats finished. 6-4. The Chiefs 10-0.
At this point, both teams have won 12 games this year.

Pats are 7-1 at home. Chiefs are 6-3 on the road counting the playoff game.

The Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles for the season and Maclin is banged up. The Patriots had a number of players injured, some or most may be seeing their first action in a while.

The weather looks to be rainy, cold, possibly snowy. The Chiefs played 3 games in a row in the rain during in their winning streak.

What The Chiefs Need To Do To Win

They need to play their best football in all phases.

Marcus Peters has racked up the interceptions but he's still a rookie who can get beat for big plays. The pass rush needs to be consistently strong and the defense will need to create takeaways. I'd say at least two for a good chance of winning.

The offense needs to do a better job than they did last week. They need to protect the ball but also generate big plays to Kelce and Maclin?/Conley/Wilson. If the Patriots focus on Kelce/Maclin, the other guys will have to step up. Alex Smith has generated big plays by scrambling and that will need to continue. West and Ware will need to be able to get yards and first down and pick up 3rd down conversions.

Special teams has been a strength. So yeah, it would be good for Santos to keep making field goals and Colquitt to pin them deep.

The Chiefs path to winning definitely includes winning the turnover battle and sustaining long drives.

What The Patriots Need To Do To Win

If their offense is healthy, they need to execute. It starts with protecting Brady to give their receivers time to get open. I don't expect them to run much even in the rain. I think the most important battle in the game will be Pats O-line vs Chiefs pass rush.

On defense, they'll look to take away big plays forcing the Chiefs to pick up first down after first down, where one incomplete or sack can stall a drive.

Gronk and Edelman will get their yards and scores, so the Chiefs have their work cut out for them.

Conclusion

If the Chiefs win the turnover battle by +2 and win the sack battle by +3, I'd expect them to win. If they can't do both of those, I'd expect the Patriots to win.