Bracket Philosophy: Sweet 16 Upsets

I've studied this at length and here's the long and short of it: I think people rely too much on chalk when making their Sweet 16.

As defined for Hoagie Central, an upset in the Sweet 16 is any team not seeded 1-4. Here's the history dating back to when we started college for number of total upsets, as well as times that a region went by chalk 1-4.

Sweet 16 History
2001: 6 upsets, 1 perfect region
2002: 6 upsets, 0 perfect regions
2003: 7 upsets, 0 perfect regions
2004: 7 upsets, 1 perfect region
2005: 8 upsets, 0 perfect regions
2006: 6 upsets, 0 perfect regions
2007: 5 upsets, 1 perfect region
2008: 5 upsets, 1 perfect region

It would seem recent history would suggest that you should have between 5 and 8 upsets in your Sweet 16, with either 1 or 0 perfect regions. So let's look at how we've picked this year.

2009 Group Summary
Brittany: 0 upsets, 4 perfect regions
Savan: 2 upsets, 2 perfect regions
Mark: 2 upsets, 2 perfect regions
Obama: 2 upsets, 2 perfect regions
Laura: 3 upsets, 1 perfect regions
Matt: 4 upsets, 2 perfect regions
Steve-O: 4 upsets, 1 perfect region
Niraj: 4 upsets, 1 perfect region
Me: 4 upsets, 0 perfect regions
Bobby: 5 upsets, 0 perfect regions


I admire Bobby as he was able to do what I couldn't. Although he always sucks at brackets. I mean, Ohio State to knock off Louisville? They won't get past Siena.

Of course, even if you anticipate 5 or 6 upsets, it only counts if you pick the right ones. So I understand the argument that if you're not sure where the upset will be, not to pick it. But come on, this is March Madness. Not March play it safe and hope everyone else screws up. Of course, my wife was the one who went all chalk. Whatever.