Raiders - Chiefs Win Probability

I wanted to get my Chiefs post up yesterday and this chart wasn't ready at the time. But now that's it up, I think my post did a pretty good job of covering the game.

The big spike for the Raiders at the end of the first half was the Kelce fumble. The fumble and return play increased the Raiders chances of winning by 21.8%. Interestingly, actually scoring a touchdown from the 25 yard line only increased their chances by 10.4%.

When Janikowski misses the extra point at 20-14, their chances dropped 4.5%.

Their peak chance of winning was 91.9%. That's when I said I was feeling pretty low. Right before the Mauga pick that dropped them down to a 41.2% chance of winning.

When Santos didn't get to kick the XP at 20-20, Raiders chances went from 46.2% to 53%.

You can even see in the chart the three "here we go again" waves where the Raiders had chances to win in the 4th.