Week 12: Home Stretch

If the Bills had won, the headline would have been about how important it is to make mid-season changes. 

The Steelers fire Matt Canada and beat the Bengals. 

The Bills fire Ken Dorsey and beat the Eagles. 

That's how easy it is. Switch OC in the middle of the season and your season is saved. 

But instead Jake Elliot made a 59-yard field goal in the rain. 

So that's not the headline. The story is that the Bengals without Burrow suck and the Bills are in danger of missing the playoffs just like Cincinnati. 

- - -

7 of our 8 division winners are essentially decided, confirmed by being heavy favorites on FanDuel. 

The one race that's not is Falcons-Saints. 

Of the other 7, the two that are the most up for grabs are Lions being -550 to win the NFC North and Ravens being -270 to win the AFC North. (Compared with lines like Chiefs -4000 and 49ers -3000)

Quick update of the division winners with Calcutta owners:

Dolphins - Kirat

Ravens - Kirat

Jaguars - Dave

Chiefs - Kirat

Eagles - Matt

Lions - Mark

49ers - Dave

Falcons - Dave or Saints - Mark

Kirat is in a pretty good spot to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. 

If I had to pick 3 AFC wild-card teams today, I would pick Steelers, Texans and ... Colts based on their schedule down the stretch. 

If I had to pick 3 NFC wild-card teams today, I would pick Cowboys, Vikings and ... Packers based on their schedule. The Seahawks are better than the Packers but Seattle's schedule is so, so difficult. 

If Falcons win their division and my wild-card teams are correct, then I'll have 6 of my 8 Calcutta teams in the playoffs, owning 43% of the playoff field in a 4-man competition. Of course, the Packers are a big stretch right now, the Steelers could easily miss, the Saints could overtake the Falcons, and just like that I've got 3 teams, 21% of the field. So who knows. 

I don't love that the Eagles keep winning and have the track to own the bye and homefield, a huge advantage over my 49ers. This week they play each other, so if SF wants to fight for the bye, this is a must-win.

Thanks, Big Red

It was at the very start of 2013 that the Chiefs hired Andy Reid to be their 13th head coach. 

I wrote this on January 3 and this on January 4.

Here we are at the end of 2023 and Andy Reid just became the winningest head coach in Chiefs history.

- - -

The Cowboys franchise peaked in the early 90s, winning 3 Super Bowls in 4 years. 

The high point of the Dolphins franchise was 1972-1973. 

The franchise peak of the Detroit Lions was 1952-1957. 

The story is similar for basically every team in the league. The Patriots is more recent, the Bears 1985, etc. 

For all these NFL fans, even when something good happens, they'll look back and wonder how their team could get back to their glory days. When they can get back. If they can get back. 

That is if they can even remember the glory days. 

Think about the Bucs. They won a title in 2002. In 2017 and 2018 they finished last in the division. Fans were sitting there hoping they get back to the 2002 championship ways. And then in 2020, they got Tom Brady and won another title. Just how you draw it up. 

So for 90% of the NFL fans, they're out there thinking about getting back to the high point of the franchise. 

And then there's the Chiefs. These are the glory days. 

The winningest coach is at the helm. Fresh off two Super Bowl wins in the last 4 years. And in the prime of easily the best QB in franchise history, a guy in the conversation for best QB in league history. 

Andy Reid inherited a team at the franchise low in 2012 and took them to the franchise high. 

- - -

With Reid, the Chiefs finished 2nd in the division the first three seasons. Then have won the division 7 years in a row and counting. 

When he was hired, I said if Reid wins a playoff game it will be worth it. I had never seen one. 

Now I've seen 12. 

He's the only coach to be #1 in wins for TWO different franchises. It's actually an insane stat. 

Reid and Mahomes turned everything around and I can never say enough about it.

40th Birthday

Just so I don't forget, I had a pretty great year-long celebration of turning 40.

It started with the vacation of a lifetime, visiting Hawaii for the first time.

This summer, my big ticket physical item came early when I got a PS5. 

I took to Mom to Vegas which wasn't associated with birthdays in my mind, but to her she thought it was to celebrate her 75th and my 40th, so I guess it counts. 

On Saturday, we went out for a super delicious dinner at the Brass Onion. On the birthday night, I wanted something low-key so I picked Torchy's Tacos.

And then I picked up Assassin's Creed Mirage for the PS5 on a Amazon Black Friday sale. 

So yeah, pretty good run of celebration.

40 Reasons Why Dave is one of my Best Friends

 

1. He enables my gambling addiction

2. Best commissioner

3. Created Calcutta

4. Co-founder of the Eliminator fantasy football league

5. Co-founder of the Ironman fantasy football league

6. Occasionally funny

7. Creative

8. Replies to Whatsapp messages

9. March Madness Calcutta

10. March Madness bracket challenge

11. Hockey playoff Calcutta

12. Stopped doing NBA Calcutta

13. Incredible Michael Ian Black Cameo

14. Great host in Chicago

15. Great host in Denver

16. Great host in Kansas City

17. Uhhhh, this is starting to get hard

18. Even a great host when visiting St. Louis

19. Forgot that he beat me 18-0 in disc golf

20. Was happy for me when I won NFL Calcutta

21. Creates content on Hoagie Central

22. Also creates entertaining content on Hoagie Central

23. I can brag that my friend was #1 on Medium

24. Writes books

25. Keeps things spicy with new looks

26. Codenames

27. Euchre

28. Poker

29. Touch football

30. Ultimate Frisbee

31. Married a good friend of mine… twice!

32. Gives me space to criticize his parenting by not raising Chiefs fans

33. Canceled the burger bet

34. Shuffleboard

35. Tsuro gang warfare

36. Podcasts and YouTube shorts

37. Finally starting to acknowledge my highly refined sense of humor

38. Humors me with my advertising skills

39. Pays his debts quickly

40. Still alive!

I'm a man. I'm 40.

thoughts on chiefs-eagles + more

Some quick thoughts on MNF: 

Obviously the drops are a concern. The Wide Receiver room is holding back the offense, without question. But let's go a bit deeper. 

The deep ball to MVS was 2nd and 10 from the KC 49 with 1:50 to go. People are reacting like that was going to win the game. First of all, the Eagles would have had 1:45 and only been down 3. That was not at all a game-clinching play. Second, that's not the right play/throw to make there. Chiefs needed to score a TD with under 30 seconds to play. They needed to focus on getting first downs. A 7-yard pass would have been better than a touchdown on that play. 

People like Bill Simmons have been writing off the Chiefs saying that they're not as good as the Chiefs that we're used to. That's entirely focused on the offense. What's being missed is the defense is the best it's been in the Mahomes era. Allowing only 21 points to the Eagles and holding A.J. Brown to nothing is impressive. And Mahomes is playing well and healthy so far. So you give me a good defense and a healthy Mahomes, they can hang with anyone. 

Going back to last night, the Chiefs were up 17-14 with 13 minutes to go. 1st and 10 at the Eagles 14, Kelce catches a 5-yard pass. He gets the ball knocked out of his arms. If the Chiefs score a TD there and make it 24-14, we're having a different conversation. It was raining. Kelce doesn't have a huge fumbling problem. 

The Chiefs also showed they have no way to stop the tush push which is honestly just as concerning to me regarding a potential Super Bowl rematch as the WR issues. 

Here's how I rank the best teams in the NFL right now:

1. 49ers

2. Eagles

3. Chiefs

4. Ravens

5. Lions

Jaguars, Dolphins and Cowboys are in the next tier and beyond these eight, the only team I can see making the Super Bowl is the Bills if they were able to get right and get hot going into the playoffs.

So if you were drafting Super Bowl predictions right now, I think 49ers over Chiefs should be the first choice and Eagles over Chiefs should be the second choice. 

But if you go back to last night, the Chiefs had a 10 point lead at the half over the Eagles. It was raining and Kelce fumbled and there were some WR drops. It doesn't mean the sky is falling, but I think it's absolutely fair to have the Chiefs as an underdog vs Eagles or 49ers. 

And as for #TankWatch, it really seems like the Panthers are gonna go back to back #1 picks. Respect the commitment to the bit.

Week 11: Motor City Comeback

Today's top story?

The Lions are 8-2 for the first time in the Super Bowl era. As a reminder, we've had 57 Super Bowls. 

Let's zoom in on the 4th quarter. The Bears are up 9 and go on a 14-play scoring drive that eats up almost 9 minutes of clock. The Lions will only have 4:15 left. 

But it was already a 9-point game. Kicking a field goal and making it a 12-point game, takes it from a two-possession game to a two-possession game. The difference it takes two touchdowns instead of a touchdown and field goal. But if you really wanted to win this game, that's not a meaningful difference. 

At 26-14, I thought to myself, the Lions are going to win 28-26. 

The Lions score in one minute. Then the Bears go run, run, incomplete. Detroit used two timeouts. The Bears ran 15 seconds off the clock. The Lions take over down 5 with 2:33 to play. Game over. 

If the Chiefs win tomorrow, then the Lions will be tied for best record in the league. 

- - -

The Chargers have a +21 point differential. They're 4-6. That's not supposed to happen. Here's the standings for teams .500 to .400:

Take a peek at the point differential column on the right. If you've scored more points than you've given up at this point, it should translate to wins. The Chargers are the king of blowing close games. 

There are all these teams who are dying to find a franchise QB, teams with good defenses like Browns and Jets who would kill to have someone like Herbert, and the Chargers are just wasting him.

FYI, The Bills are in a similar situation, currently $29M over the 2024 cap. 

- - -

Tommy DeVito now has more passing touchdowns (6) this season than Zach Wilson (5). 

- - -

Let's do some Cross-offs!

AFC

Cross-Offs: Patriots, Titans, Jets, Chargers Bengals, Raiders

Playoff Teams: Chiefs, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins

The Browns have the defense and the record but I'm not ready to count them as a playoff team given their QB room and their history. Losing Burrow took the Bengals from a Playoff Team to a Cross-Off just like that. Sucks for whoever bought them in Calcutta. 

In the Hunt: Browns, Bills, Steelers, Texans, Colts, Broncos

These 5 are fighting for three spots. Bills, Texans and Browns are the best teams. Texans have 7th seed written all over them. Broncos winning SNF keeps their winning streak alive and keeps them from being a cross off.

NFC

Cross-Offs: Panthers, Cardinals, Bears, Giants, Commanders

Playoff Teams: Eagles, Lions, 49ers, Cowboys

The NFC is kinda dogshit. All these 4-6 teams that should be cross-offs but there are so many that I can't cross them all off.

In The Hunt: Vikings, Seahawks, Saints, Falcons, Bucs, Rams, Packers

When it looked like Vikes would win SNF, I had them as a playoff team. The loss knocks them just to in the hunt. The Seahawks are sitting in a spot, but with their loss today I'm not 100% convinced they won't keep losing down the stretch. 

Honestly, the #2 seed in the NFC is pretty tasty. The 7th seed is going to be terrible. So you get a home playoff game where you're a 7-point favorite, build some momentum, get a playoff win under your belt.

- - -

Quick Calcutta Check-in:

Here are the teams sorted by Super Bowl odds, under 20-1:

Chiefs - Kirat

Eagles - Matt

49ers - Dave

Ravens - Kirat

Dolphins - Kirat

Cowboys - Dave

Lions - Mark

Jaguars - Dave

AFC QB Wins - Current Generation

Hey, remember a month ago when I figured out when the Patriots dynasty ended? I was curious, so I wanted to see which QBs have won playoff games since then.

Who are the AFC guys with more than 1 playoff win in this time span?

Mahomes is 10-3 in the playoffs.

Burrow is 5-2.

Allen is 4-4. 

Minshew appearing in games only as the Eagles backup so he's 2-0 but that doesn't count. 

Lawrence is 1-1 and Lamar is 1-2. 

Another way of looking at it: Who has represented the AFC in the Super Bowl?

2019-2020: Chiefs

2020-2021: Chiefs

2021-2022: Bengals

2022-2023: Chiefs

- - -

At this point, it looks like Burrow's season could be over and the Bengals will likely not make the Super Bowl. 

So either:

a) Mahomes goes back to his 4th Super Bowl in 5 seasons

b) Someone else makes their first. Somebody like Lamar has a chance to change their story.

Week 10: Worst and Best

I've spent a decent amount of time looking at the best NFL teams. Let's start this week by looking at the worst. 

The Panthers are 1-8. Their only victory was by 2 points over the Texans. And looking at their schedule, they don't have any dogshit teams remaining. They seem to have a strangehold on the worst record...except for the crazy fact that they don't own their 1st round pick. So they have no motivations to keep losing. They lost to the Bears and Saints by 3 points each. It's not impossible to think they can get to 3 wins, possibly 4 if they're playing harder at the end of the year than some other teams. 

The Cardinals are 2-8 but on a one-game winning streak with Kyler back. The team wants to see what Kyler can do and he has stuff to prove, so I think they'll win at least 3 more and not be vying for the #1 pick. 

The other two teams with only 2 wins are the Patriots and Giants. If there ever was a team who could successfully tank, it would be the Patriots right? Belichick knows he needs a QB and knows this season is over. The Giants on the other hand are legitimately terrible, top to bottom. Pats and Giants play each other on 11/26 and the winner will be the loser. The Pats should crush the Giants, so Belichick is going to need to gameplan some sneaky stuff to lose. 

- - -

Here are the 3 teams with the best records in the NFL:

The Lions were a hot preseason pick and it's actually happening. Their offense has scored more points than the Chiefs. They're 4-1 on the road. Wild stuff. 

- - -

I am once again reminded of the razor-thin margins in the NFL. 

Let's look at the Bills. If you were a Bills fan and had a magic wand, it wouldn't take that much to turn the season around. 

Week 1: They were beating the Jets in the Aaron Rodgers injury game. They lose on a punt return in OT. 

Week 7: They were up late over the Pats, and Mac Jones comes down the field to win at the buzzer.

Week 10: Denver misses the kick at the buzzer. All the Bills needed was to have 11 men on the field. 

If those 3 games go the Bills way, they would be 8-2 in 1st place in the AFC. Ken Dorsey would have a job. 

Of course, they really should have lost to the Giants in Week 6. 

And who knows how the last two years play out differently if they do a squib kick against the Chiefs with 13 seconds left.

Spielzug des Jahres

Unfassbar gut!

Week 9: Halfway Home

Let's start here: The last bye week in the AFC is Week 13. 

Here is the Chiefs schedule through week 13:

home vs Eagles on MNF

at Raiders

at Packers on SNF

Let's assume Chiefs win 2 out of those three. That means after week 13, KC will be 9-3. 

Chiefs own the tiebreaker over the Jaguars and Dolphins. And they currently have a better AFC record than the Ravens, 5-1 vs 4-2, which is the first tiebreaker. 

For the Ravens to be in 1st place over a 9-3 KC, they would need to go 3-0 over Browns, Bengals, Chargers. 

For the Jaguars to be in 1st place over a 9-3 KC, they would need to go 4-0 over 49ers, Titans, Texans, Bengals.

The point here is that the tiebreakers are huge. The Chiefs still have to play the Bills and Bengals so nothing is locked up by any means, but it's still a great spot to be in. 

- - -

The Bengals are back. They've won 4 in a row.

The Ravens are strong. They've won 4 in a row.

You know what, let's just do the AFC Playoff Picture now. 

Cross-Offs: Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, Titans

Playoff Teams: Chiefs, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins, Bengals. 

That leaves two wild-card spots for Bills, Browns, Steelers, Texans, Chargers.  (Colts and Jets live in the nether space between In The Hunt and Cross-Offs at the moment.)

I still think the Bills can rally for a wild-card spot. Browns/Steelers/Texans/Chargers for one spot is pretty interesting. I might go Browns right now thinking that their defense is the best unit of any on these four teams.

- - -

NFC

Cross-Offs: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Bears, Rams, Packers, Bucs.

Playoff Teams: Eagles, Lions, 49ers, Cowboys.

That leaves three spots for five teams. 

Saints are leading the South.

Commanders were sellers of their D-line at the deadline.

Bad loss for the Seahawks.

The Vikings should miss the playoffs without a QB that's been there for a week.

And the Falcons just loss to the Vikings without a QB that's been there for a week.

Saints and Seahawks still seem like safest bets. Vikings-Falcons is up for grabs I guess and Vikings just grabbed the tiebreaker. So Dobbs is going to carry the Vikes to a 7-seed?

- - -

If we're talking pure contenders, there's not a lot of teams I trust. I still don't trust the Ravens despite their good performances. Something about Lamar getting hurt in December, something about lack of playoff success. I'm just not ready to believe in them as a legit contender. This could be the year where Lamar writes a new narrative but it's going to be hard for me to believe without seeing it.

As of right now, if I had to predict the AFC/NFC Championship games, I would pick Bengals at Chiefs and 49ers at Eagles...which was exactly what we got in January 2023.

Red Robin Trivia Champion

At Red Robin, they have a little screen at every table so people can play games while they're waiting for their food. We only go to Red Robin once a year, but I like the trivia game. It's set up so you play against every one playing trivia in every Red Robin across the country. You get points for being correct but also being fast. It counts down from 1000 points instantly. Even if you know the answer for certain about the fastest you can put it in is 920.

The first thing you do is pick a username by picking from their pool of adjectives and nouns. I was Dorky Bear. 

The first game I played, I was in 1st place through 9 questions, got the 10th question correct, but was too slow. I missed 1st place by 90 points. 

I had time for one more game. Once again I was in contention at the end. The last question was crazy hard. I had no idea. I guessed. Nailed it.

So now I can add this to my resume:

Chess.com Legend

2006 Time Person of the Year

Red Robin Trivia Champion