Friday, December 13, 2024

Winningest NFL Coaches

Bill Belichick appears to be done coaching in the NFL. This opens the door for Andy Reid. 


Regular Season Only


Andy is averaging around 13 regular season wins a year. On pace to pass Belichick in 2027. Would take 5 more seasons at that clip to pass Shula. Reid is currently 66. 

Playoffs Only


Reid is 5 behind Belichick. Reid has added 14 wins in the last 5 years, minimum of 2 every year. Hard to count on playoff wins, but technically on pace to pass Belichick in 2026 or 2027.

Regular Season + Playoff Wins Combined

1. Don Shula, 347 wins
2. Bill Belichick, 333 wins
3. George Halas, 324 wins
4. Andy Reid, 296 wins

Averaging 15 combined wins a year, Reid is on track to become number one in 2028.

Monday, December 09, 2024

I figured out Super Bowl 59

Ten years ago, I had perhaps my best prediction ever. 


I've done it again. I've seen the future. I know how Super Bowl 59 will unfold.

- - - 

This season has been dominated by two teams of destiny, one in each conference. Two 12-1 teams on the verge of clinching the first round bye and home field advantage, who couldn't be different in how they're winning.

The Kansas City Chiefs are winning ugly and close. After two straight years of winning the Super Bowl, it's almost as if the NFL script writers got bored and desperate. Instead of just having the Chiefs win normal games, someone decided it would be more interesting if every week the Chiefs found a new way to win on a last second play, most of which might happen every couple of years or so in the entire league. 

The Likely toe on the game-tying TD
Getting pass interference on 4th and 16
Overtime vs Tampa
Blocked field goal to win
Botched snap by Raiders
Doink and in vs Chargers

Some call it Tayvoodoo. Some call it black magic or dark magic. Some say that the Chiefs have sold their soul to the Devil. 

I don't care what you call it. But you'd be a fool to ignore it at this point. 

On the other hand, you have the Detroit Lions. They are winning pretty and big. Point differential of +183 through 13 games, best in the league. Next closest is Buffalo at +129. (The Chiefs are down at +56. Which is third in the AFC West behind two teams with only 8 wins.)

Detroit is a breakthrough. Aesthetically pleasing and with the best motivational coach in the league, aggressive and tough. They are looking to go to the Super Bowl for the first time. And they're doing it in style. 

These two teams are destined to meet in the Super Bowl this year. And where is it being held? No other city than New Orleans, the epicenter of voodoo magic and the dark arts.

Here's how it will unfold:

We already know it's going to be a close game. The Chiefs don't know how to be in anything else. But every time, it hinges upon a new element. So there won't be any repeats. No toes on the line or botched snaps. No it will be something we haven't seen yet. 

I was running though a mental list of possibilities of unusual ways to win...when it hit me. The inverse of what we just saw. 

We were given foreshadowing a month ago. Bates, the kicker for Detroit, has a knack of kicking it just inside the uprights. 

Here's a composite of two kicks narrowly sneaking by the upright.



So imagine you take a kicker that does THAT, but instead they are kicking in the voodoo capital of the universe against a team that has mastered the dark arts?

The Detroit Lions will lose the Super Bowl by doinking a kick to the Kansas City Chiefs. 

You might assume it's a field goal, and it might be. But it came to me in my vision as a doinked extra point. The most aggressive team in the Lions will lose by going for one.

Tuesday, December 03, 2024

Week 13: Post-Thanksgiving Stretch

Well, the AFC playoff picture hasn't changed in two weeks.

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans

Likely In: Chargers, Broncos

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: Colts

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals




The NFC is both easy and complicated.

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, NFC West winner, NFC South Winner

Likely In: 

Up In The Air: Seahawks/Cardinals/Rams, Falcons/Bucs

Likely Out: 

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, 49ers


We don't have a race for the wild-card teams. We have a race for two division winners. 

In the South, we have the Falcons and Bucs, both 6-6. The Falcons have a -34 point differential, while the Bucs are +39. The Falcons have lost three in a row while the Bucs have won two in a row. The metrics favor the Bucs. I remember rooting for the Falcons last year and it was awful. So let's say the Bucs win this division. 

In the West, the Seahawks are 7-5 but the Cardinals and Rams are lurking at 6-6. This whole division is a crapshoot. We'll have to put a pin in this one. 

- - -

Just for the hell of it...let's check in on the Burrowhead crew. The Bengals secondary coined that in January 2023.

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Bengals are 0-1 in the playoffs, missed the playoffs following the 2023 season, and are currently 4-8. 

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Chiefs are 6-0 in the playoffs, including two Super Bowl wins, and are 11-1 this year. 

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Bengals are 0-3 vs the Chiefs, including this year where the secondary committed pass interference on 4th and 16.

If you come for the King, you best not miss.