You gotta be kidding me

In our Eliminator league, Mark had won the first 4 weeks in a row.

In week 5, I had good games from Breece Hall, De'Von Achane and Sam LaPorta. Entering Monday Night Football, I only trailed Mark by 5 points. And I had Jordan Love at QB facing the Raiders, a bottom 5 defense. 

Here's Jordan Love so far this season:

If Love put up 25 or more, it would push my team to the 2nd highest score of the season and into bonus money territory. 

But all I really need is 5.5 out of him to win the week. 

Long story, short, he's struggling. He gets to 7 points late in the 4th quarter and I think it's sealed up. But then he throws his 2nd pick of the night. Back to 5. 

We don't even have rules for a tie because it's never happened. 

With 2 minutes left, the Raiders have a 4th and 2. If they go for and pick it up, that ends the game and Mark and I tie. I'm desperately hoping they kick, so Love can get the ball back. I only need a few passing or rushing yards. 

They kick. They miss. 

Love gets his 5 passing yards and is up to 6 points. 

There's 44 seconds left. All I need him to do is not fumble or throw an interception. I don't even need a touchdown. Like a turnover on downs is fine. 

You already know what happens.

Chucks it deep, interception in the end zone. 

I lose week 5 by 1 point.

Niraj KC Visit - 2023

Niraj got in late Thursday so the only thing we did that night was play a 1am game of Camel Up with Mrs. Hoagie Central. 

Friday we started with lunch at Chicken n Pickle. Tasty food and cornhole too.

They let me play in the Gameyard just fine.

From there we headed to the brand new Black Hoof Disc Golf in Lenexa.

I took each of the first 5 holes and seemed like it might be a blowout. But Burnsy shook off the rust and we tied the next 5 holes. And then on 11, he wins the hole and is now up 6-5 despite winning just one hole. Now it's a ballgame.

After 15 holes, Niraj was still up 8-7. We tied on 16. On 17, we both had putts that were about 10 footers. His hit the front rim, and mine found the chains. So I'm up 9-8 heading into the final hole.

On 18, there was minimal drama and we tied the hole, so that left the final score as 9-8. 

Closest disc golf game I've ever had.

From there we went to Alma Mader brewing and we met up with one of Niraj's friends, Chris. We had a few beers and then had burgers at Green Room for dinner. 

Saturday, Niraj and I took the boys to BRKthrough. This is the place with 30-40 challenge rooms and you're competing to get the high scores.

And sure enough, the four of us earned First Place on the leaderboard.

From there we went to Meat Mitch to load up on KC barbecue.

Seriously fun day out with the kids.

We came back home and regrouped a bit, board games, etc. 

Then for the evening portion, we ventured downtown. We started at Taps on Main, which had a self-service beer wall that we were very into. I got to try 5 different beers and we had some good wings and nachos.

From there we made our way on foot to the Green Lady Lounge, a jazz club I'd always wanted to visit. It was pretty rad.

After two hours of jazz, we went to Tom's Town for a high-end night cap. Kansas City nightlife at its best.

By Sunday, we had done almost everything on our list. 

We started with a little RedZone and a video call with Mark.

Then we went out on what ended up being a sportsbar bar crawl. 

Maloney's was a bust because they didn't have Sunday Ticket (wtf) so we audibled to a nearby Buffalo Wild Wings. 

We saw the end of the Noon games there and the start of the Chiefs game. But in the 2nd quarter we went looking for something a bit livelier. 

We tried Westport Ale House but it was both crowded and charging $15 cover. So then we tried Fountain Haus because we saw a sign promoting a 200" screen which both of us read as 200-foot screen. We go inside and realize it's 200 inches. 

So then we tried Tin Roof and even though it was packed, we secured a table right in front of a giant screen and had the best vibes, no cover. Win.

We watched the 2nd half of Chiefs-Vikings and it was a good game down to the wire, plus a Chiefs win. Not much more you can ask for.

And then we went across the street, to one of my favorite restaurants, and now a Niraj staple, Beer Kitchen. I got the Hogtied sandwich.

Another jam-packed fun visit. Great times!

Week 4 Favorites

Let's take an updated look at the best teams in each conference. Starting in the AFC.

I was sitting in a sportsbook yesterday and saw this graphic:

So it's kinda funny right? Last week, the Dolphins were 3-0 and had just scored 70. So they had a 45% chance of going to the Super Bowl? But after one road game, they're down to 20%. And the Bills took all those odds from them. 

Look, I get it. The Bills were dominant this week, and beat the Dolphins so sure, they're ahead of them. But they also lost Tre White for the year. 

I came into the year thinking that the Chiefs might have a down year, and didn't think they were worth taking in Calcutta factoring in the price tag. But I think the Bills at 40% right now is just as artificial as the Dolphins at 45% last week. Prisoner of the moment. 

Here's the current Vegas odds:

So it's Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins and then a big drop to the Chargers. The Bengals are cooked this year, sorry. Same for Browns without Chubb. I would put the Jaguars above the Bengals, but they haven't looked good yet either. 

If you look at the top 4, we're saying the Chiefs and winner of the AFC East are the top two teams. So we could be headed toward another Bills vs Chiefs playoff game. I don't believe in the Ravens as a real playoff threat. Chargers or Jaguars could win a game but that's about it. 

It will really come down to the health of the Chiefs, Bills and Dolphins. Plus, homefield advantage. Hypothetically, if the Chiefs secure the 1 seed, and the Bills win the East, then the Dolphins would have to go through Buffalo in the cold/snow to reach Arrowhead in the cold. The track meet Dolphins wouldn't be as favored there as they would be if they could secure homefield throughout and make the winner of Chiefs/Bills come to Miami. 

Chiefs play Dolphins on Nov 5. Chiefs play Bills on Dec 10. Bills end the season in Miami.

My take: It's not about which one of these teams is the best, but who gets the #1 seed. (Also, entirely possible the Dolphins just become mediocre, or Chiefs or Bills for that matter.)

NFC

I don't have any ESPN analytics numbers for the NFC, but here's the Vegas odds:

49ers, Eagles and Cowboys all look elite. And look who's the only other team in the mix at less than 10 to 1...the Lions. As much as we all love the Lions, I don't think we can put them on the same level as the other three. 

So it's an eerily similar story in the NFC as the AFC. The 49ers are the best team, also in the West, and the two next best teams are in the East, fighting for the division. 

At this point, I trust the Eagles a lot more than the Cowboys. The Super Bowl Loss Hangover, which used to be my most reliable metric, now doesn't appear to be a thing. 

I think 49ers and Eagles are fighting for the 1 seed but ALSO that either team could win on the road. Cowboys flaming out in the playoffs seems likely. 

At this point, I think the biggest question is where will the 49ers-Eagles NFC Championship game get played.

First-Place Lions

As everyone knows, this has always been a Chiefs and Lions blog. And just 17 short years after founding it, the Lions are favored to win their division.

The Lions are 3-1. 

2-0 on the road, picking up wins at Arrowhead Stadium against the defending champs and Lambeau Field, their main competition for the division. 

1-1 at home, with their only loss coming in overtime. 

Here's their schedule leading up to Thanksgiving:

Very realistic to be 4-2 or better after that stretch, with 3-3 being the floor. 

They host the Packers on Thanksgiving and that game could basically clinch the division. A coronation on national TV.

It's been a long time coming for Detroit. But it looks like a good time coming.

Bears vs Chiefs

One image tells a whole story. 

1. Chiefs scored on 7 straight possessions. 

2. It's 41-0 in the 3rd. 

3. Blaine Gabbert is in for Mahomes. In the 3rd quarter. 

4. Jawaan Taylor is in the game and didn't get a penalty. 

I'm not sure which is the hardest to believe. 

Week 3 Blowouts

Let's start with something you don't see every day. Or ever. 

The Dolphins just put up the most points in the Super Bowl era. A 70 burger. 

They could have tied the 73-point record from 1940 if they had kicked a field goal, but they kneeled it out. Could have gone for 77 and the all-time-record. 

Among teams that have scored 70+, this was the 2nd best margin of victory. 

There were seven teams who accrued a point differential of -50 across 17 games last year. The Broncos did it in one game. 

Which is worse? Going 0-11 vs Patrick Mahomes or losing 20-70? Doesn't matter, the Broncos did both. 

Elsewhere, the Bills beat Washington 37-3 at Fedex Field and the Chiefs beat the Bears 41-10 at Taylor Swift Stadium.

- - -

You would think the most painful loss at the day would be the 70-20 in Miami, but nope, it was in Green Bay. 

The Saints entered the 4th quarter up 17-0 at Lambeau Field. 

But Derek Carr injured his throwing shoulder in the 3rd quarter. Here were the next four drives for the Saints: Punt. Punt. Punt. Punt. 

The Packers come alive in the 4th, scoring 18 on three possessions, doing the analytics thing of going for two when down 14 and it works. 

So now the Saints need Jameis to go down the field and get points in the final three minutes. And he does. Gets them down to the Green Bay 28. It's a 46-yard field goal attempt for rookie kicker Blake Grupe. Who picked a bad time to miss his first NFL kick. 

- - -

Also the Cowboys must be confused about how spreads work. The line was Cowboys -12. And they sort of nailed it exactly, losing to the Cardinals by exactly 12. 

- - -

Unrelated, but the two most famous NFL players are both on the Kansas City Chiefs and have won 2 Super Bowls. Things that in 2017 wouldn't have made any sense. 

- - -

Division Check-In

NFC North

Both the Lions and Packers are 2-1. Vikings and Bears are 0-3. Bears are a lost cause. Vikings seem to have dug too deep a hole. Like they'll be 2-4 after week 6, on track for a 6 or 7 win season. 

So uh, Lions at Packers is pretty big game. And DETROIT is favored at Lambeau. Wild stuff. 

NFC East

That sound you heard was the Cowboys bandwagon crashing into a cactus. Eagles remain class of the division. 

NFC West

49ers are the best team in the NFC. Seahawks look like a wild-card team. I still don't believe in the Rams as a playoff team, despite starting better than expected. 

NFC South

This will be a cluster all year. But Carr injury and yesterday's loss stings for New Orleans. Atlanta and Tampa will stay in the mix. 

Playoff Teams: 49ers, Eagles.

(9 teams in the middle)

Cross Offs: Bears, Giants, Cardinals, Panthers, Vikings. 

AFC West

Normalcy is restored. Chiefs are good. Raiders and Broncos are bad. Chargers have signs of promise but won't actually win in the playoffs. Chiefs play Dolphins in Germany on November 5 and play Bills in Kansas City on December 10. 

AFC East

This is a two team division. The Jets and Patriots stink. The Bills and Dolphins are two of the top 3 AFC teams. They play this week in Buffalo and in the season playing in Miami in January, avoiding both heat and snow related games. The Dolphins have been better but are one Tua injury away from irrelevance. The most competitive division race (because both teams are good) right now. 

AFC North

Do the Steelers feel like a 2-1 team? They do not. 

The Browns have limited two teams to 3 points each. 

The Ravens will regret not beating the Colts. 

Somehow three teams are 2-1 and the team in 4th place is the Bengals. 

This is the most interesting division race involving all four teams. Can't cross off any of these teams. 

AFC South

This division sucks. They're all bad and don't deserve our attention, time or energy. 

Playoff Teams: Bills, Dolphins, Chiefs. 

(9 teams in the middle)

Cross Offs: Broncos, Jets, Patriots, Raiders.

The six teams that are 10-1 or better to win the Super Bowl, sorted by conference are:

Chiefs

Bills 

Dolphins

49ers 

Eagles 

Cowboys

My preseason Super Bowl pick was 49ers over Chiefs and I would like to cash out the value of that ticket before it goes downhill.

Chiefs D

The story for the Chiefs this year has been their defense. Let's take a look at the Jaguars drives yesterday. 

1. Reached KC territory, punt

2. 3 and out punt

3. Started on own 2, punt

4. Takeover at KC 17 after muffed punt, only gain 3 yards, field goal

5. Takeover at KC 37 after fumble, fumble themselves on first play (botched screen pass that went backwards)

6. Reach KC 45, sacked on 4th and 5

7. Go 44 yards in 23 seconds to get a field goal before halftime

Halftime

8. Punt

9. 3 and out punt

10. Reached 1st and goal from KC 1, settled for field goal from KC 4

11. Reached 1st and 10 from KC 14, turnover on downs

- - -

Jaguars reached red zone three times. Zero touchdowns allowed. Two field goals and a turnover on downs. 

Here were the yards gained on the three Jaguars scoring drives: 3, 44, 73. So Jacksonville only went down the field and got points on 2 out of 11 drives. (One was gifted by a muffed punt, not the KC defense's fault.)

5 punts

1 turnover

2 turnover on downs

3 field goals

And last week, similar story for the Chiefs defense. One of the touchdowns was a pick 6. The other came after a fake punt from the Lions 17. Without the fake punt, the Lions have one 75-yard scoring drive the whole game. 

Promising start if the KC offense/special teams can stop turning the ball over.

Week 2 Projections

This will be an every week feature. I'm still riding high on the new football season and it's fun to think about it. Let's take it conference by conference.

AFC

The only 2-0 teams are the Dolphins and the Ravens.

The Dolphins went on the road to beat the Chargers and the Patriots. They get Broncos at home and then Bills on the road. I do think they're good but I also doubt that Tua plays all 17 games. 

The Ravens beat the Texans at home and the Bengals on the road. They get Colts next week with possibly Gardener Minshew. I'm not convinced they're an AFC title contender, but they could for sure win the AFC North at 11-6 or something. 

The good/decent 1-1 teams are Chiefs, Bills, Jags, Titans. 

The 0-2 surprises are really just the Bengals...and Burrow aggravated his calf injury today. 

If I was picking 7 playoff teams right now...Dolphins, Bills, Chiefs, Ravens seem in strong position. I'd give the nod to Jags over Titans but not super confident. If we say Jags, there's room for two more of Titans, Browns, Steelers, Bengals, Chargers.

Cross Off: Jets, Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Raiders, Colts. Now if the Jets were able to get a new QB in the building maybe they could be a wild-card. 

NFC

Meanwhile there are 6 2-0 teams in the NFC. Cowboys, 49ers, Falcons, Bucs, Eagles, Commanders.

The class of the conference so far is 49ers, Cowboys, Eagles. Let's pencil all three as playoff teams. 

Cross Off: Giants, Bears, Panthers, Cardinals. I've seen enough. 

So that leaves four spots for: Bucs, Commanders, Falcons, Packers, Lions, Vikings, Rams, Seahawks, Saints. Still pretty crowded. 

Just for fun, let's see who owns the teams I'm penciling in to the playoffs:

Dolphins - Kirat

Bills - Matt

Chiefs - Kirat 

Ravens - Kirat

49ers - Dave

Cowboys - Dave

Eagles - Matt

hmmmmm

holy shit, is it 5784 already?

For years and years, Hoagie Central has been a big supporter of all the important jobs and rituals associated with blowing shofars and anything else. It turns out I was ahead of my time. 

I encourage all followers of Hoagie Central around the world, to pass on the essential belief to their loved ones that "your mouth opens the door."

Week 1 Overreactions

A year ago, after week 1 I picked Chiefs and Eagles to be in the conference championship games. Let's get it right again.

NFC Championship will be Cowboys at 49ers. 

AFC Championship will be ... Jaguars at Dolphins? No that can't be right. I'd still lean towards Bengals/Chiefs this year, but I don't really think the Chiefs are going to have a great season...so could be a Bills or Bengals or Jaguars random breakthrough year. Too early to say on the AFC side. 

new banner, who dis

bad vibes

Man, between how hard it is to repeat plus the Chris Jones contract situation plus the Kelce injury situation, it's real bad vibes to start the year for the Chiefs. 

At this point, I would not expect KC to be hosting the AFC Championship this year. If I was Kirat, I'd regret spending $13.30 on them. 

NFL Calcutta Auction Thoughts

With only 4 of us, we each got roughly 8 teams. I've color coded them by division for a moment.

I was able to get one team from every division.

Meanwhile, Kirat got 2 AFC West and 3 in the NFC West, meaning he has no coverage in the NFC East, NFC North, or AFC South. 

Mark and Matt are each covering 6 of 8 divisions. 

- - -

Let's compare each roster against Hoagie Central's official predictions. I'll just do a rundown of my position finish in each division, sorted by most expensive to least expensive:

Mark: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 4th

Matt: 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 4th, 4th

Kirat: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 3rd

Dave: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st

I think Chiefs, Bills and Bengals all win their divisions but I didn't draft them because they were too expensive. 

But I got the 4 teams I picked to win NFC divisions and my four AFC comprise 1 division winner and the three-wild card teams according to Hoagie Central projections. Basically, I did as good as I possibly could based on auctioning according to my NFL Preview. 

There were teams that I wanted in the moment like Saints, Ravens, Bengals, Seahawks, but I'm very happy with the roster I've built. 

2023 NFL Preview

The only NFL preview that has nailed the Super Bowl winner twice in the last four years!*

AFC West

We start with the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. 

(Pause for 10 minutes to bask in the glory of that sentence.)

I'm back. Mahomes, Kelce and Reid. We're still in Phase 1 of Mahomes' career. One day Kelce won't be here anymore and Reid should retire before Mahomes too. In 2033, Mahomes will be making a playoff run as a 37-year-old quarterback with literally zero players from today's team. And that's fine. But for now, he's got Reid and Kelce and life is good.

It was January of 2023 the last time we saw the Chargers play football. They were up 27-0 in the playoffs and lost. 

Russ Wilson will be better this year because he has to be. He couldn't be any worse than dogshit, which is what he was last year. Sean Payton will help. 

The Raiders swap Derek Carr for Jimmy G. 

It seems too easy, but I think Chiefs win the division, Chargers are a wild-card team, Broncos 3rd and Raiders 4th but it's close.

AFC North

Bengals are still the class of the division, but the Burrow injury makes me nervous. I kinda thought Cinci would fall back to earth last year (saying they were a 10 win team that overachieved in 2021 and predicted them to win 6-9 games. They won 12.) I'll stick with them to win the division and win 11-12 games but if they fall back to earth this year and fail to make the playoffs, I'll still count that as being correct for not believing in them as a concept. 

Steelers are on the rise. I think Kenny Pickett outperforms expectations and Steelers make the wild-card.

Seems kinda clear that Lamar's MVP season back in 2019 was the outlier. They've won between 8 and 11 games every year for the last three, going 11, 8, 10. Let's pencil them in for 9 wins this year to complete the set. 

I'm still skeptical on Watson on the Browns. If he stinks again, it wouldn't surprise anybody.  

Bengals, Steelers, Ravens, Browns. 

AFC South

All aboard the Trevor Lawrence hype train. If they get blown out 27-0 in the playoffs, this hype train might not leave the station. But they didn't. They've got Lawrence ascending and Ridley is going to bet on himself this year and finish as a top 10 receiver. 

Titans have Derrick Henry and D Hop. If this was 4 years ago, this could be really exciting. 

Anthony Richardson will produce some highlight reel plays, but also plenty of picks. Colts will still be bad this year. 

Same story for the Texans but without a ton of hope on the horizon. 

Jags, Titans, Texans, Colts. 

AFC East

This is a fun division now. 

Rodgers and Dalvin Cook to the Jets. A ton of young talent there already. But they're still the Jets, you know?

The Bills have gone from Super Bowl darling to not even the most hyped in their division. 

The Dolphins are fun and if Tua could stay healthy would be a force to be reckoned with. 

Which leaves Bill B in charge of the worst team in the division?

Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Pats.

AFC Playoff Picks

1 Chiefs

2 Bills

3 Jags

4 Bengals

5 Jets

6 Chargers

7 Steelers

NFC West

Cardinals suck. 

49ers have a great team and are rolling with Brock Purdy. 

Seahawks found a way to cook without Russ. 

Rams still have memories of the Super Bowl win, that's something.

49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals.

NFC North

One of my favorite bits on Hoagie Central is that in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 I just didn't mention the Lions at all. Even last year, I picked the Bears to finish last and didn't consider the Lions worth mentioning. Starting in 2019, I predicted the Lions to finish 4th, 4th, 4th, 3rd. They actually finished 4th, 4th, 4th, 2nd. But all that has changed. 

Goff is a new man with the OC in Detroit and they've got the Sun God. Just figure out a way to block the gambling sites from the hotel wi-fi and this team could sniff the playoffs. 

The Packers finally move on from Rodgers and will still probably be good. 

The Bears have Fields. Now they just need to figure out how to win games. 

The Vikings are always going to be good not great with this Cousins-Jefferson combo. 

This is the closest division in my eyes. All four teams have a path to finishing first or last. 

Since I have to guess, I think Bears finish last. If the Lions had less injuries/suspensions I might have them winning the division, but I'll guess 3rd this year, narrowly behind the Vikings. I've got a good feeling about Love. Packers 1st.

NFC South

This is the first year in a looooooong time that Tom Brady is not in the NFL. Wow. 

Are any of these teams good?

Saints have Derek Carr, Falcons have Bijan. Panthers and Bucs have???

Let's go Falcons first, Saints second, Panthers third, Bucs last.

NFC East

I'm a huge believer in Super Bowl hangovers. The Eagles were great last year but they had an easy schedule and they've lost a ton of their defense. My Hurts stock has mooned and that's great, but Philly won't be winning 14 games this year. 

Let Tony Pollard cook. Last year Cowboys were consensus favorite and I zagged thinking they couldn't win the division two years in a row. Now, I'm assuming Eagles are the favorite, so I'll go back to believing in Dallas. 

I just saw the Giants win a playoff game and yet I refuse to believe in Danny Dimes and this team. 

Commanders are starting the Sam Howell era. Good luck. 

Cowboys first, Eagles, Giants, Commanders. 

Still seems like there aren't any good teams in the NFC. 

NFC Playoff Picks

1 49ers 

2 Packers

3 Cowboys

4 Falcons

5 Eagles

6 Saints

7 Seahawks

Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas:

49ers over Chiefs

*This probably isn't true, but I'm not going to check. Also turns out just picking the Chiefs 4 years in a row once we found out Mahomes is great is a pretty good strategy.