Clearing Out My Saved Memes Folder

Here's a low-effort end of the year post for you. I went through my images saved from Reddit folder. Here you go. 

Chiefs WR Room

Ever since Tyreek left, the Chiefs haven't had a WR1. For the last two years, it's been WR by committee. In training camp I thought it felt like we had five WR2s. But that's not the case. 

Here's where the room stands right now, in Week 15 2023:

Rashee Rice is WR1

Justin Watson is WR2

Toney is WR3

MVS is WR4

Skyy Moore is WR5

That's their position on the team as of this moment. But where do those players actually fit on a decent offense?

Rashee Rice should be a WR3. The exciting rookie emerging, learning from 2 established guys.

Justin Watson should be a WR4. He can come up with a big play on 3rd down once or twice a game, but he's not a go-to guy.

Toney should be off the team. I'm not joking.

MVS should be a WR5. He's basically Justin Watson with worse hands. Send him deep to keep them honest, should only be used as a decoy.

Skyy Moore should be inactive. If there was an injury above, sure next man up. Otherwise, healthy scratch.

So there you go. Rice is good enough to see consistent snaps. If your WR2, has a hamstring injury, Rice could fill that role for a few weeks. 

Basically we're nicely filling out the WR3, WR4, and WR5 positions. 

Just have two open slots at the top of the room. No biggie. 

- - -

Look, obviously every fan would want a top 10 receiver on their team. Let's name some guys.

Hill, Jefferson, Kupp, AJ Brown, Amon Ra, Keenan Allen, Diggs, Chase, Deebo, Evans. There's 10 names. 

I'm not even asking for a top 10 guy. 

But an average WR1, someone like Garrett Wilson or Michael Pittman.

And then a WR2 like Tee Higgins or Tyler Lockett.

Two guys would be the difference between getting the bye and not. 

Week 15 Playoff Picture

There are 5 teams with a point differential above 100+. And the defending champions are not one of them. 

If you sort by winning percentage instead, here are the top teams:

So the Cowboys are frauds who can't beat good teams or win on the road. 

Look at the Eagles and Lions point differential. Red flag. Not to mention the Lions playoff history doesn't inspire confidence.

So the actual good teams are:

49ers

Ravens

Dolphins

Bills

Except the Bills are 9th in the AFC. So they're essentially a top-5 team in the NFL but they have work to do to make the playoffs. 

Here's the live look at Super Bowl odds:

So if you believe them, we're headed for a rematch of Super Bowl 47, the Blackout Bowl, featuring 49ers and Ravens.

- - -

There's only 3 weeks left in the regular season. Which means only two more times after today to be thinking about cross-offs and hopefuls. So let's get into it.

AFC

Actually eliminated: Patriots, Jets, Titans

Cross-Offs: Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Steelers

Playoff Teams: Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, AFC South Winner

The next most likely playoff team according to the NYTimes is the Browns, who are on their 4th QB of the year. And it's Joe Flacco. Real football analysis is really hard. So I tend to focus on the quarterback first and foremost and I tend to be right more than I'm wrong on my NFL predictions. So to see this Browns team winning despite the QB room, it shows that sometimes you have to consider more than one position. 

NYT gives the Bills a 71% chance to make the playoffs, which is good, but not as high as you would think for a team that might be the scariest in the league. 

So beyond Ravens/Dolphins/Chiefs, there are 4 AFC spots up for grabs for 6 teams. Here they are in order of NYT percentages:

Browns. Jaguars. Bills. Texans. Colts. Bengals. 

Looking at the schedule, it still looks like Jaguars division to lose. 

Okay, so I just did a quick ESPN Playoff Machine just to see. I see the Broncos winning out over Patriots, Chargers, Raiders. If that happens, the Bills would have to beat the Dolphins, 2-1 does not get Bills in over Broncos. 

So if I have the Broncos lose their last game to the Raiders, and Bills lose to Dolphins, then the Colts grab the 7th seed. 

But then you let the Bills win out and all of a sudden they're the 4th seed and Miami is a wild-card team. 

Then I switched the Ravens losing to the Dolphins in week 17, going along with Ravens losing to the 49ers next week. 

That's all it took to get this:

Chiefs get the bye and Ravens are a wild-card. The work for the Ravens is not done yet.

For now, I'd say yes to Browns, Jags, Bills. Quiet yes to Texans assuming they get Stroud back. Bengals would not surprise me at all.

- - -

NFC

Actually eliminated: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders

Cross-Offs: Bears, Giants, Packers, Falcons, Seahawks

Playoff Teams: 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Bucs, Rams

1 spot left for Vikings, Saints

Vikings schedule is harder. So Saints and Bucs make the playoffs? Wild.

HC Curse?

Monday I post that Dolphins are winning the East and Packers are a wild-card team. And then both go out and lose on MNF, making the whole playoff picture that much murkier. 

Week 14 Mess

Let's start with the Chiefs. They're not just not a very good team right now. 

By point differential they are 6th in the league, by record 7th in the league. But they've lost 3 of their last 4 since returning from Germany. Here's how many points the Chiefs have put up in their last 6 games: 9, 21, 17, 31, 19, 17.

It's penalties, it's drops, it's losing the turnover battle. Poor execution in general. Last week they started losing players on defense to injury, and the WR room is so bad you would think it's been decimated by injuries, but nope, these are the starters. They can hang with anyone, but can also lose to anyone. If they were playing the 49ers right now on a neutral field, I think the line should be 49ers -7.5 or something like that. 

They're going to win the AFC West, but could easily be the 3-seed, even if they win out. 

The silver lining? The teams ahead of them don't inspire playoff confidence. The Ravens simply do not seem that strong and Lamar is 1-3 in the playoffs and has the history of blowing the 1-seed. The Dolphins might have the talent to get to the Super Bowl, but they still have to stay healthy and put it together. I'm still more scared of the Bills. (I would very much like to avoid them in the wild-card round. There are so many dogshit AFC teams, please avoid playing Buffalo again.)

- - -

The playoff picture is a mess. The only way to sort it out? Let's start with some Cross-Offs. 

AFC

Cross-Offs: Patriots, Titans, Jets, Raiders, Chargers

Division Winners: Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, Jaguars

Wild-Card Hopefuls: That leaves 7 teams fighting for 3 wild-card spots. 

And it really is a mess. Here are the teams in order of my judgement of quality:

Bills, Texans, Browns, Bengals, Broncos, Colts, Steelers

The Steelers just shit the bed twice in a row against gimme teams. I know the Texans had a bad game yesterday, but they also beat the Broncos head to head. Bills, Texans, Browns seem likely but Flacco? The Bengals seemed fine without Burrow yesterday, so maybe them. Who knows?

Does any AFC team seem like they can win the Super Bowl?

NFC

Cross-Offs: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders, Giants, Bears

Playoff Teams: 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, NFC South winner

Wild-Card Teams: Packers, Rams

I don't think the Vikings with Jefferson hurt again and Nick Mullens at QB can do it. 

I think the Falcons/Saints/Bucs are fighting for the division spot but not for a wild-card spot. Still holding out hope for the Falcons like an idiot. 

- - -

Here's how Vegas ranks the only 6 teams with less than 10-1 odds:

SF

Baltimore

Miami

3-way tie: Philly, Dallas, KC

Here's my takeaway. The NFC is top heavy. The AFC is wide open. Could be the year with a 5th seed Bills, 7th seed Bengals or 4th seed Chiefs sneak in to the Super Bowl to face the 49ers/Eagles/Cowboys in the Super Bowl.

Work Trip to Cleveland

Top tier pizza at Market Garden Brewery.

Week 13 Clusterfuck

Let's start with the Jags. Entering the 4th quarter, they had the ball, up 7, going against Jake Browning and the Bengals. Hold on for 15 minutes to win the game and they'd be sitting in the #1 seed in the AFC and control their destiny. ESPN's model gives them an 80% chance to win at this point. 

What happens? Bengals get a stop. They score a TD. Jags are driving with a tie game and with less than 6 minutes to play, the franchise QB gets his ankle crushed by his own lineman. The Jags miss a 48-yard field goal at home. And then the Bengals make a 54-yarder and a 48-yarder in OT to win. 

So the Jags lose the game. They don't get to sit in the top spot. And now Lawrence is going to miss time. That's the margin for error in the NFL. Everything can go to shit in one play. 

- - -

Meanwhile the team with the best odds to win the Super Bowl (49ers) is not the team with the best record (Eagles). SF is clearly the best team right now and it doesn't seem particularly close. And yet, they're only good when all their players are healthy. So in light of how many injuries we've seen around the league this year, to the 49ers this year, and to Purdy last year in the playoffs, I wouldn't exactly say that it's a lock for SF to stay healthy through February. 

- - -

And yes the Chiefs blew it on Sunday night. Their next game is hosting the Bills who are always scary. But after that, its the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals without Burrow, and Chargers who will be eliminated. So 12-5 is in play even with a loss to the Bills this week. But uh, if you want the #1 seed, I recommend winning out, getting to 13-4. 

The playoff picture is a mess. I'm skipping cross-offs until next week. Hopefully this week will help sort things out. 

Pictures from Vegas