Week 13: Post-Thanksgiving Stretch

Well, the AFC playoff picture hasn't changed in two weeks.

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans

Likely In: Chargers, Broncos

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: Colts

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals

The NFC is both easy and complicated.

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, NFC West winner, NFC South Winner

Likely In: 

Up In The Air: Seahawks/Cardinals/Rams, Falcons/Bucs

Likely Out: 

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, 49ers

We don't have a race for the wild-card teams. We have a race for two division winners. 

In the South, we have the Falcons and Bucs, both 6-6. The Falcons have a -34 point differential, while the Bucs are +39. The Falcons have lost three in a row while the Bucs have won two in a row. The metrics favor the Bucs. I remember rooting for the Falcons last year and it was awful. So let's say the Bucs win this division. 

In the West, the Seahawks are 7-5 but the Cardinals and Rams are lurking at 6-6. This whole division is a crapshoot. We'll have to put a pin in this one. 

- - -

Just for the hell of it...let's check in on the Burrowhead crew. The Bengals secondary coined that in January 2023.

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Bengals are 0-1 in the playoffs, missed the playoffs following the 2023 season, and are currently 4-8. 

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Chiefs are 6-0 in the playoffs, including two Super Bowl wins, and are 11-1 this year. 

Since Burrowhead was coined, the Bengals are 0-3 vs the Chiefs, including this year where the secondary committed pass interference on 4th and 16.

If you come for the King, you best not miss.

Week 12: On the Road

Huge win for the Chiefs. Anytime you can go toe to toe with a great team on the road, you've got to like your chances come playoff time.

Predicting Conference Championship Sunday

Sunday, January 26, 2025

2pm Central

Eagles at Lions

5:30pm Central

Bills at Chiefs

Week 11: Crunch Time

Let's just go straight to the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans

Likely In: Chargers, Broncos

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: Colts

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Falcons

Likely In: Vikings, Packers

Up In The Air: The NFC West

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, Bucs

The teams that are crossed off are shit. The only thing that gives me pause is that it's hard to have 3 playoff teams from the same division. Chiefs/Chargers/Broncos all look like playoff teams but because they play each other, does that give breathing room to a team like the Colts?

Same story in the NFC. Lions/Vikings/Packers should all make it, but will they? Could the NFC West sneak two teams in?

- - -

Here's a thing. The media, podcasters and fans all judge a team by their offense. 

A team like the Bengals have scored the 5th most points. Everyone thinks this must be a playoff team!

The Chiefs have only scored the 13th most points. This team must not be a serious contender!

But the Chiefs have allowed the 8th least points. Bengals have the 30th best defense.

Let's check in on some other teams, all just going on points scored, points allowed.

Ravens: 2nd on offense, 27th on defense.

Bills: 3rd on offense, 10th on defense.

Lions: 1st on offense, 4th on defense. 

Now that's a championship caliber team. Here's the top ten teams sorted by point differential.

Lions and Bills fans, book your tickets to New Orleans. 

- - - 

For the fourth year in a row, the Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season. Devastating really.

We just can't beat the Bills when it doesn't matter.

- - -

Listen, all of these things I think are true:

The Bills could absolutely beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. 

Losing this game does take the pressure off the Chiefs from having to go undefeated and can focus on winning in the playoffs. 

I still think the Chiefs get the #1 seed. 

If the Chiefs get the #1 seed and the Bills come to Arrowhead, the Chiefs will be favored by 2.5.

- - -

Betting the Lions to make it to the Super Bowl is the best future bet you can make right now. 

That fact is nuts.

 

Even Chiefs Fans are Villains Now

One thing was different from this week in Vegas compared to the last two years. The treatment I got wearing my Chiefs shirt around.

Someone bumped into me, apologized, then turned saw what I was wearing, then said "You're a Chiefs fan, I'm not sorry."

It wasn't a one off. Other NFL fans were making comments and faces throughout the day. 

I had a waiter at a restaurant tell me he's a 49ers fan and jokingly said that my meal was going to cost triple the price. 

And then throughout the entire Chiefs game, there was a fan who was rooting SO loudly for the Broncos. He kept telling his group how the league is rigged for the Chiefs, how the league wants Mahomes to be undefeated, how every call is bullshit. He was a few feet behind me the whole game.

When the Chiefs turned and blocked the kick to win, I finally turned around to see the guy. In the moment, I didn't know what to say, so I gestured that we should high five to celebrate the Chiefs win. 

The funny thing was that I assumed he was a Broncos fan for 3 hours. But he wasn't. He was wearing Bills clothing. 

And look, I get it. If I was a Bills fan, I would fucking hate the Chiefs too.

Vegas Sportsbook Recap 2024

So I did go to Vegas last weekend and basically came out even. Had some good winners (Jaguars under 17.5 points, Worthy under 2.5 receptions, Chargers -6.5, Bills -4, Eagles -6.5) some bad losers (Saquon over 120 rushing yards, my five team parlays) and some devastating close calls (Lions-3.5 and I would have won $92 if Hopkins had gotten one more reception. He had 3 catches in the first half and only 1 in the second half.)

The DOs and DONTs I wrote last year were pretty spot on, I just chose to do some parlays anyway and of course they didn't pan out.

But it was a ton of fun and coming out even is better than having a terrible day. Here are my pictures from the rest of the weekend.

16oz ribeye at Lago

Quad sevens on a 12x multiplier, winning $75 on a $1.50 machine.

Week 10: Chiefs and Lions are Teams of Destiny

Winners win. Even when they're not having a great day. 

Last year the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with a top defense allowing 17 ppg and an offense scoring 22 ppg. 

This year the Chiefs defense is allowing 17 ppg and the offense is scoring 24 ppg. 

Now KC is really playing with house money. If they lose to the Bills, they're still 9-1 and on track to get the 1 seed. And honestly, it's probably better to get a loss out of the way, let the undefeated season conversation go out the window, and lock in for December and January. 

(Now any other year I would love for KC to go undefeated as it's one of the three ways to do something historic. But this year is all about getting that three-peat.)

Meanwhile in the NFC, the Lions are winning in regulation despite throwing 5 picks. 

National media is running graphics like this:

Of course nothing is guaranteed. 

Ravens and Bills are good. Eagles and Vikings are good. A Ravens-Eagles Super Bowl would not shock anyone. 

But here are the odds to get to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans:

Here are the odds to be the #1 seed:

And here are the odds to win the whole enchilada:

So the Chiefs are slightly more likely than the Lions, but take a look at the teams with shorter odds than 10-1. Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Bills. Three teams in the AFC. Only one team in the NFC. 

HOPKINS

Week 9: Halfway Home

I got to listen to a podcast this morning hyping up the Ravens and Lions as the best teams in the NFL, talking about how it's going to be a Ravens-Lions Super Bowl. 

And listen, it makes sense. 

Any time you can crown a team based on September and October, it's going to work out! Especially if you can put all your money on a guy like Lamar Jackson who never gets hurt late in the season and always shows up in the playoffs. 💪

And that goes for the Lions too. This team is known for playoff consistency!

- - -

But for real, I do think Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl is really on the table. If it is Lions-Ravens, I will be fucking fired up rooting 100% for the DETROIT LIONS to win their first Super Bowl.

- - -

We're halfway through the season. Let's check out the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans

Likely In: Steelers

Up In The Air: Colts, Broncos, Chargers, Bengals

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Falcons

Likely In: Vikings, Packers

Up In The Air: The NFC West, Bucs

Likely Out: Bears, Cowboys

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints

So many teams seem crossed off. In the AFC, really just down to 4 teams looking for two wild-card spots. 

In the NFC There are 6 good teams, 5 bad teams, and the NFC West is totally up for grabs. Then you have the Bucs who were good but have been decimated by injuries. They need Mike Evans back if they have a chance of getting a wild-card spot.

Week 8: Undefeated

If you watched a single Chiefs game by itself with no context, you might think this team should finish 9-8. 

If you watched a single Chiefs game and throw in the context of Mahomes and Reid, Spags, the track record that includes younger players getting better as the year goes along, you might think this team feels like a 12-5 team. 

Right now they're 7-0. Every other AFC team has two losses. 

Next up they get a Bucs team without Godwin and Evans. After that it's Nix vs Mahomes in Arrowhead. Feels like Chiefs will be 9-0 when they go to Buffalo.

Bills should be 8-2 so it's a big game...but even if Buffalo wins, they'll be 9-2 and Chiefs should be 9-1. 

Bills have four in a row of Chiefs-49ers-Rams-Lions. Tough. 

So even though this Chiefs team doesn't look very good any given Sunday, I still think they're going to get the #1 seed. 

(They're not going to go undefeated and I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped a few games they should win, but still feels like they're on pace for 14-3 and the top spot.)

At this point, it's all about getting ready to play your best football in January and February. What a world to be in.

DHop to the Chiefs

I know everyone is supposed to have big hot takes these days, but I think this is pretty simple. 

We needed receivers and we got a good one. Past his prime, but only 3 years removed from being recognized as a top 10 player in the league. Three years ago I had him as the best WR in the game.

Always liked the guy and now he's going to be wearing red and gold, trying to do something historic:

Hoagie Central from February 2024:

Week 7: Byes Matter

The league added a 7th playoff team in each conference starting in the 2021 playoffs. 

Here are the Super Bowl teams by seed:

2021: AFC 1-seed, NFC 5-seed

2022: AFC 4-seed, NFC 4-seed

2023: AFC 1-seed, NFC 1-seed

2024: AFC 3-seed, NFC 1-seed

In this new era, here are your odds of going to the Super Bowl based on 4 years of data:

1-seed: 50%

2-seed: 0%

3-seed: 13%

4-seed: 25%

5-seed: 13%

6-seed: 0%

7-seed: 0%

Now some of this is noise and some of this is small-sample size. 

Some of this is more easily explained by narratives. 

But the fact remains that the 1-seed is far more valuable than it was in the 6-teams per conference era, and the 2-seed is far less valuable. 

- - -

Through 7 weeks, the teams sitting in the 1-seed spot are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions.

- - -

Ravens are now on a 5-game winning streak. Only 3 teams have a better record. That 0-2 start is a distant memory, and yet like some distant memories, it could easily haunt them if they don't get the 1-seed. The loss to the Raiders is ridiculous. 

The inevitable Jayden Daniels injury has arrived and now he's week-to-week. His absence threatens to derail the best turnaround story in the NFL.

Steelers swap the 4-2 Fields for the 1-0 Russ. I want to go on the record now, that everyone is praising the move because they beat up on the Jets, but I would have kept starting Fields and I don't think Russ will continue to impress.

The Saints fell off hard. The Panthers are awful. And now the Bucs receivers are injured. Maybe Simmons will hit his under 30 wins bet.

Key injuries are happening all over the place. The Texans need Nico Collins back.

Everyone acts like the Eagles suck, but I still think they're good. (shrug)

My hot take that the 49ers would miss the playoffs is looking pretty good so far.

The Bills have the easiest division I've ever seen.

- - -

Let's take a look at the playoff picture. 

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans

Likely In: Steelers

Up In The Air: Colts, Broncos, Chargers, Bengals

Likely Out: Dolphins

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets

NFC

In: Vikings, Lions

Likely In: Packers

Up In The Air: 10 teams

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints

The AFC feels very settled with four strong division leaders and 6 truly awful teams. 

Meanwhile, the NFC is very wide open. If Jayden was healthy I'd have the Commanders as In but he's not. And even the Rams could go on a run if they get healthy. All the good teams are in one division. So weird.

Ranked Illinois Beats Ranked Michigan

And look good doing it.

Week 6 Bye Week