Sunday Bracket Update

Grant's path to Victory: SDSU wins 2 more games and Texas doesn't win any or SDSU wins it all. 

Harrison's path to Victory: Texas must lose tomorrow. SDSU must not win 2 more games. 

Brit's path to Victory: Texas must win tomorrow. SDSU must not win it all. 

New Merch

I'm in Skyy Moore's Video

So do you remember a little over a month ago when I took this picture of Patrick Mahomes and JuJu Smith-Schuster?

Well that moment was captured in Skyy Moore's behind the scenes video at 18:10.

In fact, you can see me in his video. I'm the guy in red.

chess history

Just for posterity, I got into a phase of playing human opponents on Chess.com from April–June 2022. 

I played 71 games, going 42-24 with 5 draws. 

Counterintuitively, I was 18-16 with white, but 24-8 with the black pieces. Apparently, I played better when responding to attacks than forming my own.

My best win was against a 878. My best ever rating was a 879 and my current rating of 865 puts me in the 70th percentile among all chess.com players. My goal was to say I was better than 2 out of 3 players, and I achieved that. 

Bracket Contest Breakdown

My bracket is currently in 1st out of 19, 94th percentile in the country, with 430 points. 

In the Elite 8, I can get four teams right: Alabama, Houston, Texas, Gonzaga.

Final 4, I have three alive: Alabama, Houston, Gonzaga. 

And the title game of Houston vs Alabama is still alive. 

So good position, but still only four teams alive.

Niraj trails me by 40 points, but he has a chance to get an extra 40 points because in addition to the exact bracket I have, he also has UConn advancing to the Elite 8. If UConn beats Arkansas, Niraj and I will end up with the same score.

Despite having tiebreakers, ESPN does not calculate the tiebreaker. Instead saying that it total score relative to the actual total score. My tiebreaker total was 150. Niraj put 146. If the national championship scores 148 points, I guess we're still tied. 

But that's just Niraj. 

Harrison has 5 teams alive: SDSU, Houston, Texas, Arkansas, Gonzaga. He also has Gonzaga winning it all. So he has a path to victory.

Brit has the same 5 teams alive as Niraj but with Texas winning it all. So she has a path to victory. 

Adam's wife KC has Xavier beating Texas but has no teams in the championship alive. Her path is very slim and relies on Xavier and chaos. Seems almost impossible. 

Savan is the highest score that has Alabama winning it all. So he has a path.

Mark can pass Savan as Mark has Kansas State in the Final Four. Savan has Gonzaga so Mark needs Kansas State to keep winning, root against Gonzaga, and wants Alabama to win it all. But it's possible. 

Eve has some unique teams alive, so it seems like she also has a path. Her Elite 8 teams alive are Alabama, Miami, Xavier and Tennessee. With Tennessee in the Championship game. So it's possible. 

Adam has Xavier and UConn alive, along with Alabama, Houston, Gonzaga and Houston winning it all. So if everything fell his way, probably has a path.

Jonah could possibly tie or pass Brit with Tennessee and UCLA wins and then be in prime position if Texas wins it all. So still alive I think.

Grant despite intentionally making a bunch of bozo picks, has San Diego State beating Gonzaga in the championship. Still alive. 

Matt despite being at the bottom, has UCLA winning it all with Xavier also in the Final Four. Still a chance.

Cora, Leela, Missy, Jay, Bridget, Kirat, and Sid cannot pass people ahead of them. 

The 11 people with a path to victory are in bold.

March Madness Calcutta Thoughts

1st Round

I wanted Houston. Would have taken the 2 spot and Alabama but both were taken. So I went for slot 4. Didn’t want Purdue or Kansas. Could have moved down to 6, but I was thinking about the 3rd round. Calculated that my 2nd pick would be good enough at 9 and didn’t want to drop below 16 for my 3rd pick.

2nd Round 

I had eye on Marquette or Gonzaga (but didn’t want Gonzaga after I got UCLA) so I was happy Savan took Gonzaga and not Arizona.

3rd Round 

I was debating between Tennessee and 8 seeds, but Burnsy took Tennessee. Was happy to get the 8 seeds. If I didn’t take the 8, I would have taken Creighton.

4th Round

I thought I would end up with 10 seeds, because I didn’t think Kentucky would be on the board. Once I took Kentucky, I offered Burnsy my last two picks for his 22nd pick so I could take the 10 seeds but he declined. But if he wanted Texas A&M, I think he should have taken it. They would have been there at 28. I think best for Burnsy would have been to take the 10 seeds, second best would have been to trade down, and distant last is take Texas A&M at 22. 

5th Round

Because he didn't take the trade, I got the 11 seeds at 28. I was happy with that. 

6th Round

Had a choice between MSU and 13 seeds for the last pick. Thought even if MSU wins one game, it's more fun to have the 13 seeds and hope they win one.

FIFA does something good

Loyal readers will remember this 2018 post about the 2026 World Cup in which I pointed out the flaws of the proposed 3-team groups.

Luckily, FIFA reads Hoagie Central and they have decided to adopt my plan of the 4-team groups. 

Shreveport Work Trip

Went down to Shreveport Bossier for a work trip.

Jake Williams was playing music and taking our requests.

Got to go axe throwing and do a rage room, both for the first time.

Had some great food. My favorite was this gumbo from Orlandeaux's. And the au gratin potatoes from Silver Star Smokehouse were the best I've ever had.

Mahomes vs AFC QBS

The AFC is loaded with young talented quarterbacks. 

Let's take a look at how they stack up.  

Here's the competition:

Burrow (3 years, 1 SB appearance, 5-2 in the playoffs)
Allen (5 years, 4-4 in the playoffs)
Lamar (5 years, 1 MVP, 1-3 in the playoffs)
Herbert (3 years, 0-1 in the playoffs)

So far, that's 16 combined years with 1 MVP season, 1 Super Bowl appearance and a 10-10 record in the playoffs. Not bad. The comp for these combined output is Matt Ryan who did win MVP and make a Super Bowl. 

And then there's Mahomes.

(5 years, 2 MVPs, 3 SB appearances, 2 Super Bowl wins, 2 Super Bowl MVPs, 11-3 in the playoffs)

Super Bowl LVII: Advanced Stats

So I noticed something. 

This video shows touchdowns and only touchdowns from all Super Bowls.

In Super Bowl LVII, only looking at touchdowns, the Chiefs scored three in a row. One in the third quarter, two in the fourth.

In Super Bowl LIV, the Chiefs scored three in a row. All in the fourth. 

Based upon this research, I have come to the finding that scoring three second-half touchdowns in a row is a good way to win the Super Bowl.

- - -

Just for fun, I learned that the play that Toney scored on is called Corn Dog because it's a Corner + Drag and that sounds like corn dog.

Also, when the Chiefs try not to score by kneeling before the goal line they call it Church Mode. 

And when the Eagles defense for letting them score is called Olé.

- - -

So here's another good stat. 

The Chiefs have completed 63 seasons of football. The first six were in the pre-Super Bowl era, so I'm just going to ignore them for the purposes of this. 

The Chiefs have played 57 seasons in the Super Bowl era. In that era, they have won 20 playoff games. 

Seasons 1-4: 4 playoff wins

Seasons 5-52: 5 playoff wins

Seasons 53-57: 11 playoff wins

So yeah, 5 seasons of Mahomes and he has 55% of the franchise's playoff wins, more than the previous 52 seasons. 

During the stretch from seasons 5-52, the Chiefs averaged .1 playoff win a year. With Mahomes, they are averaging 2.2. 

- - -

So Mahomes has 11 playoff wins. That's pretty good. Would you believe that he has more than some NFL franchises?

How many franchises do you think?

Eight.

That's 1/4 of the NFL. 

The Arizona Cardinals franchise has played 103 seasons and has 7 playoff wins. 

This kid from Texas Tech has 11 playoff wins in 5 seasons. 

Super Bowl LVII: Mic'd Up

Always the best video. Been waiting and waiting for it, they just posted it, haven't even watched it yet. 

They won't let me embed it, so here's the link.

Wild stuff in here:

1. The Skyy Moore TD. It's coming on 3rd and goal from the 4. Andy Reid tries to call timeout right before the ball is snapped. This could have gone so wrong. IF they snap the ball as it's being whistled and Philly gets to see the route, then the Chiefs have to switch plays and they burn a timeout. IF that gets stopped then it's 4th and goal from the 4 and we might see a field goal instead of the td. But the reason he tries to call the timeout is because...

2. Chiefs are in the wrong formation. From watching the broadcast and listening to pundit podcasts, you think Reid gets all the credit for being a genius playcaller and dialing everything up perfectly. And then you find out they lined up in the wrong formation, and Reid is trying to call timeout. 

After watching some other clips I figured out what was wrong. Skyy Moore was supposed to be on the right side. Mahomes turns to his right and signals for motion, but Toney is over there. Toney points to the other side of the field. So Mahomes turns to his left, and is like, let's send him in motion from the left then.

Also I love Mahomes making sure that Skyy Moore's TD ball gets saved for him. 

3. Also...a bit of foreshadowing. When the Chiefs take their first lead at 28-27 after the Toney TD, Kelce comes to the sideline and has one message for the offense: More, more, more! What he doesn't realize is that the Chiefs final touchdown was going to be coming from Moore, Moore, Moore.

I Was There: Super Bowl LVII Parade

What's wild is that I haven't been to a game since the last parade, so the last post on this tag was the previous parade. Last time I didn't have to label which Super Bowl parade it was, but now I do. 

I parked near The Roasterie and walked straight to KC Live. Was able to sit inside No Other Pub for a bit until I got hungry and set off to look for food. Got some Meshuggah Bagels before finding a spot on Grand for the parade.

Here's my spot, right in front of McFadden's. You can see I was only 1-2 people away from the front railing, which I thought was pretty good considering I got this spot less than an hour before the parade started. Better than my spot for the LIV parade.

Here's Clark Hunt and Andy Reid.

Here's the Lombardi. I think Mark Donovan the President was holding it at this point, so no big loss that his face is blocked by the trophy.

Here's Buttkicker.

Here's Juan Thornhill and Andrew Wylie. It's hard to read but Wylie's shirt says: 0 sacks, put it on a fucking t-shirt!!!!

Here's Chris Jones

Okay, here's Chris Jones a second later. Turns out there is a difference between in front of the railing and 1-2 people away from the railing. 

Here's Khalen Saunders asking for a selfie with me. Or at least that's what it looks like.

So this was the wildest part of the whole day. I hear people start yelling "Juju! Juju!." I can't see him yet, so I'm lifting my phone above my head and trying to see what I can get. And then from out of nowhere, before anyone has a chance to shout out that they see Mahomes, all of a sudden the MVP is right in front of me. 

I snap as many as I can and the one above was the best of that burst. The one below could have been great, but those pesky hands got in the way again.

The next bus has Skyy Moore so I got a nice shot of him.

And then, to my right, I see Patrick Mahomes is coming back! Literally the only guy I saw moving against the flow of the parade all day. He's posing with more people.

He's walking by the railing, standing literally only 4 feet away from me. All the people in my vicinity push forward and stick their hands out trying to get a high-five. I didn't get one, but the fact that it was even a possibility showed how close I actually was to him.

Then he climbed on the bus behind Moore's and passed us again. So I get this cool shot.

Absolutely electric to see the man who is responsible for all of this, that close up. 

It was right around this time that Travis Kelce passed by. I was so focused on the Mahomes photos/handshake that I didn't get a good shot of Kelce, just in case you were wondering.

From there, I had to hightail it on a two-mile walk to get to the rally portion.

I'll be honest. This was kind of a dud for me. The guys didn't say all that much and it's so crowded that you end up watching it on a monitor. Today, the parade really outclassed the rally. 

All the pictures above were taken by me. Below are some supplemental pictures I found online.

Legendary

I was just in a meeting, letting my mind wander. 

And I was reflecting on all the quarterbacks that I was jealous of growing up, seeing what they meant to their cities. What Peyton Manning meant to the Colts, or Brett Favre to the Packers. Steve Young to the 49ers, Drew Brees to the Saints or Aaron Rodgers to Packers again.

All of those guys are Hall of Famers. Legends that a whole city rallied around. 

All of them won one Super Bowl for those cities. 

(I'm being careful with my words because Peyton did win a second Super Bowl for Denver, but he made his mark as a Colt. He won 4 NFL MVPs in Indianapolis.)

But yeah, one Super Bowl win for those legends. 

Then there are the quarterbacks like Dan Marino and Jim Kelly (Fouts, Tarkenton, Moon, McNair, McNabb, Cunningham, depending how deep you want to go) that were Pro Bowlers, franchise quarterbacks that never one a single Super Bowl. 

It's hard to win one. Typically a crowning achievement. 

And this kid comes along and wins two rings in five years. 

HC Sportsbook Recap

 Week 1 Bet Recap:

$50 on 49ers PK AND Bills -.5 AND Bengals +3.5 at -110 WIN

$100 on Bills -10.5 LOSS

$100 on Bengals -6.5 WIN

Invested: $250

Outcome: $286.36

Week 2 Bet Recap

$100 on 49ers -4 WIN

$100 on Bengals +5.5 WIN

$50 on Jags +8.5 WIN

Invested: $250

Outcome: $477.27

Week 3 Bets

$100 on Under 46.5 in Eagles/49ers WIN

$50 on all players to score TD: CMC, Chase, Kelce, AJ Brown at +1640 LOSS

Invested: $150

Outcome: $190.91

Super Bowl Bets

$50 on MVP Mahomes +130 WIN

$50 on MVP Hurts +130 LOSS

$150 Mahomes Passing Yards Under 294.5 WIN

$5o on exactly 2 Mahomes passing TDs +230 LOSS

$50 on exactly 3 Mahomes passing TDs +360 WIN

Invested: $350

Outcome: $631.36

I had my best week yet in the Super Bowl. Those odds for Mahomes to throw 2-3 touchdowns seemed way too easy before the game and they seem way too easy in hindsight. My big bet was on under passing yards and it wasn't close. And betting the QB to win MVP is pretty easy money.

FINAL TOTAL

Invested: $1000

Final Balance: $1585.90

Profit: $585.90

RINGS

The Chiefs won Super Bowl IV in January 1970. 

Here was their playoff history over the next 23 years:

LOSS in 1971

LOSS in 1986

LOSS in 1990

WIN, LOSS in 1991

LOSS in 1992

WIN, WIN, LOSS in 1993

So a pretty brutal 20 year stretch of futility building up to a loss in the divisional round and a loss in the conference championship round. (For what it's worth, I have no memories from those three playoff wins.)

Here's the next 20 years:

LOSS in 1994

LOSS in 1995

LOSS in 1997

LOSS in 2003

LOSS in 2006

LOSS in 2010

LOSS in 2013

The 2003 game was the no punt game. The 2013 was the choke up 38-10 where Andrew Luck recovered a fumble and scored. 

In 2015 I got to see the Chiefs win a playoff game for the first time. It was a wild-card win over the Texans starting Brian Hoyer. I acted like it was manna from heaven. The Chiefs would then lose their next three playoff games. I'll spell it out to keep the formatting. 

WIN, LOSS in 2015

LOSS in 2016

LOSS in 2017

The loss in 2017 was to the Titans where Mariota completed a touchdown pass to himself. Mahomes was on the sideline as a rookie. 

To recap, in the stretch from 1971 to 2017, the Chiefs won 4 playoff games. They lost 16. 

4-16 in the playoffs over 46 years. That includes 30 years where they didn't make the playoffs. 

They weren't on the level of Bills Super Bowl heartbreak or Browns/Lions 0-16 futility, but they weren't that much better. 

It was very easy to go on Twitter or Reddit pre-Mahomes and see Raiders and Broncos fans shitting on the Chiefs. And when someone posts how the Chiefs have lost 7 playoff games in a row, or has never won the Lamar Hunt trophy, there's no comeback. It's #facts.

That was the world I was living in. 

And then one dude changed everything. 

As good as Reid is, he didn't turn the tide. Pre-Mahomes, Reid was 1-4 in the playoffs, presiding over the Luck choke and Mariota disaster.

Mahomes is 11-3 in the playoffs. It's so hard for players to amass winning playoff records, because unless you win the Super Bowl you're guaranteed a loss. So even getting a bye, winning the divisional round and losing in the conference championship, which is objectively pretty good, is still not a winning playoff record. 

Mahomes shifted the conversation from playoff wins to Super Bowl rings. 

The Chiefs now own THREE Lombardi Trophies. 

IV

LIV

LVII

They are now tied with the Broncos and Raiders at 3 Super Bowl wins.

The Chiefs have passed the Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Bucs, Ravens and Eagles. 

Still on zero, by the way, the Chargers, Bengals and Bills among others.

As of today, KC is tied for 7th-most rings. Here are the 6 teams that have more than 3 Lombardi Trophies: Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys, 49ers, Packers, Giants

Win one more and you tie the Packers and Giants. And you pass the Broncos and Raiders and rise to the top of the AFC West Super Bowl standings.

And yes, the Chiefs now own the Championship Belt for most recent multiple titles. To lose the belt, the Bucs or Rams would need to win before the Chiefs. Or some other team would need to win two. 

Bonus little nugget: Chiefs are currently 8th on the list of all-time win-loss records. I calculated what 10 seasons of going 12-5 would do to their win percentage. It would rise it from .546 to .570. It's not crazy to think that when Mahomes hangs it up, KC is at or near the top of that list. 

Funny thing, I haven't heard a lot of trash talk from Broncos or Raiders fans. Wonder what happened to them?