holy shit, is it 5780 already?

What's an Average Quarterback in 2019?

It started with an innocent comment on the Ringer NFL Show podcast. "If Jacoby Brissett is an above-average quarterback, and I think he is, then the Colts can make the playoffs."

That got me thinking lots of things.

What is an average quarterback these days?
Is Brissett above-average?
I'm assuming average today is better than average from a generation ago, but is that true?
Is 3 weeks enough of a sample size to determine who's average?

That's lots of questions. Let's get some answers.

- - -

I'm going to use two metrics, Passer Rating (a metric I grew up with) and ANY/A (a new-school advanced stat). [I don't like and won't use QBR, which is a ESPN-owned stat with a secret formula.] I'll be using median as my average both for ease of use and to best capture the idea of a middle of the pack QB. Here's what ANY/A is, by the way:

Here are the current stats for 2019, through week 3:

Passer Rating

ANY/A

By Passer Rating, the most middle of the pack QB is Derek Carr. Here are the 5 most average QBs by passer rating, currently:

By ANY/A, the most middle of the pack QB is Bridgewater. (The sample grew by two up to 37, that's why 19th place is median here.)

So the answer to the most average QBs through 3 weeks include Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater and Andy Dalton by both metrics. That's our model of average QB play (again, using a small sample size so far.) Incidentally, Brees fared a lot better in ANY/A, Carr a lot worse. Keenum and Mariota are both top 10 QBs in passer rating. 

As for Jacoby Brissett, he's 6th and 14th in both stats, above-average so far. 

To answer if 3 weeks is enough of a sample size, I'll have to return later in the year and do it again to see if we still come up with Ryan, Bridgewater and Dalton and to see if the numbers went up or down. 

To compare full seasons across the history of the league, I'm going to find the averages for passing rating for full seasons for 2018, 2008, etc. until 1968, the early years of the Super Bowl era. 

2018: Cam Newton 94.2

2008: Jay Cutler 86.0

1998: Steve McNair 80.1

1988: Doug Williams 77.4

1978: Jim Hart 66.7

1968: Roman Gabriel 70.0

So my hypothesis that the average QB play has gone up was confirmed, but holy shit. Kind of crazy, that the football I grew up watching from 88-98, the average passer rating was between 77 and 80. Last year only 3 QBs had that low of a passer rating, all rookies: Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen. 

Even though we know how it will go, let's go ahead and do the same with the ANY/A numbers. 

2018: Kirk Cousins 6.48

2008: Eli Manning 6.00

1998: Steve McNair 5.53

1988: Steve DeBerg 5.16

1978: Gary Danielson 4.39

1968: no ANY/A stats available

Yep, QB numbers continue to improve and show no signs of stopping. The 70's and 80's were rough to watch.

"it's not nerves. it's adrenaline."

Simmons actually said something I found insightful. "It's not nerves. It's adrenaline." So the next time I have a big presentation or performance review or anything like that, I'll just remind myself that that feeling of growing excitement is not negative, nervous energy. It's positive, adrenaline energy that will carry myself through the moment.

Chiefs vs Broncos: Left-handed Pass Attempts

Calcutta Update

We're only three weeks in but I can't help looking ahead. I'm going to go through the standings to see which are the teams you'd want to own

AFC
1a. Patriots - The champs have an ever better defense and are blowing everybody out. (Kirat)
1b. Chiefs - Mahomes and Co. have picked up right where they left off. (Mark)
3. Ravens - They lost yesterday but it sure seems like they are the best team in the North, likely the 3 seed in the AFC. (Dave)
4a/b. Texans/Colts - Good starts for both, these could both be playoff teams. (Matt/Burnsy)
6. Bills - A 3-0 start has them in good position for a wild-card spot. (Dave)


NFC
1. Rams - No Super Bowl hangover here. They look dominant again. (Mark)
2. Packers - They now have a great defense to pair with Rodgers? Uh oh. (Burnsy)
3. Cowboys - 3-0 start is always good. (Burnsy)

After here, there's a drop-off with a bunch of teams in the mix that will be fighting for spots. Hard to know what to make of the South with the Brees injury, despite the win on the road. 49ers started 3-0 but being in the Rams division lowers their ceiling. Here are the teams with at least a .500 record:

49ers (Dave)
Seahawks (Burnsy)
Saints (Kirat)
Lions (Kirat)
Vikings (Dave)
Bears (Matt)


LOSER MONEY

1. Dolphins - They look like not just the worst team in the league, but an active tank job with 1-15 as a ceiling. (Burnsy)
2. Bengals - Why wouldn't they decide to tank the rest of the way to get a new QB? Maybe they already have? (Dave)
3. Jets - Hope just left town. (Dave)
Lots of other bad teams but they will probably win at least a few games.


POWER RANKINGS

Based on the above projections:
1. Mark
2. Kirat
3. Burnsy
4. Dave
(gaping chasm)
5. Matt

The Bucs Blow It

It doesn't matter to me, but this is too egregious not to dive into.

Trailing by 1, the Bucs drove down the field in the final minute and had a 1st and goal at the 9. They spiked the ball to stop the clock with 13 seconds left, preserving their last timeout.

Seems obvious that you would move the ball to where your kicker wants it and call the time out. They would do that. But first they would take an intentional delay of game penalty.

Yep.

That moves it to the 14. Winston's dive to the middle pushes it to the 16. Obviously, this is still a very makable kick. Extra points are snapped from the 15, so it's essentially that. But kickers miss more from this distance than they used to when they were snapped from the 2.

When you're in the middle of the field aiming at uprights, there's a cone of success. The closer you are, the wider that cone gets. That's your margin of error.

Bruce Arians, a very good football coach disagrees. He said "Yeah, that field goal's easier back five yards."

The kick didn't miss by much and his kicker could have used all the margin of error in the world.

frame this in the guggenheim

that's the good stuff

The Return of All Things Right

Edit: This post was originally written September 5, 2008 in Chicago. It was updated for the first time since then on September 8, 2017. I still own the grill pan that I reference in 2006 but have not used it since then. I have transferred from an apartment to a condo to an apartment to a house to an apartment to an apartment to a house.

This morning I woke up and felt the instinctive urge to be in Kansas City. The weather was rainy, and a bit chilly, and as if the weather was taking it's cues from the NFL, fall had arrived. And nothing seemed more perfect than getting some barbecue and walking into Arrowhead.

Alas, I'm not in Kansas City. In fact, neither are the Chiefs. And I won't be eating any barbecue. But, like birds migrating south, I can feel it inside me: football is back.

I have fond memories of every Chief's opening day since senior year (the dovetail of the Chiefs being good, fantasy football's introduction to our lives, and our football rituals in our apartment.)

2004 at Broncos

Priest Holmes was still tearing it up. LJ had just been drafted and didn't get to see any action. This was a Sunday night game and I remember being pumped all day. Plummer even threw a left handed interception. Good times. Except for Quentin Griffin went for 156 and 3 tds. This season he tore his ACL and is now in the CFL. ESPN Highlights. Denver 34-24.

2005 vs Jets

This was the first Chief's game I saw in Chicago, and I remember watching it at what was then Brittany's apartment, which is now our apartment. The Jets fumbled like 7 times, and both Holmes and Johnson had monster games. The Chief's should have had a shutout, but allowed a garbage time TD. Good game. Chiefs 27-7.

2006 vs Bengals

Ah, the beginning of the Herm Edwards era. This was the first football game post-wedding. I was trying out, for the first time, grilling a raw burger on my cast-iron grill pan. And I had the Chiefs game on Tivo. Well, my cast-iron pan burned the outside of the meat, and left the inside raw. Our apartment filled with smoke, and it was about the worst burger I've ever tried to eat. When the apartment got smoky, I paused the game. Then later, on fast forward I see that Trent Green just got knocked out. It was not a good day. And I haven't used the grill pan since. Bengals 23-10.

2007 at Texans

This had another ominous start. I knew the game wasn't going to be on tv in Chicago, so I went to the sports bar a few blocks away (The Hunt Club) to watch it on Sunday Ticket. I get there a couple minutes before noon, order a soda, and peruse the menu. Then at noon the games come on, and I can't find the Chiefs/Texans. They have about 10 tv's, and that is the only game not on. I go up to the bar to ask if they can change one, and they said that it's all pre-set. So I pay for the soda and leave. It was probably better off not watching. The freaking Texans beat the Chiefs and it wasn't close. This was not a good day either. Texans 20-3.

2008 at Patriots

So over the last 4 years, the Chiefs are 1-3 in opening day games. And now they get to play on the road at a team that was 10 seconds away from being 19-0. Um...great. Oh well. At least I won't fill the apartment with smoke. Update: Down goes Brady. Down goes Croyle. And still the Chiefs almost won. But not quite. Chiefs lose to Cassel's Pats 17-10.

2009 at Ravens

This was my first Chiefs season in Oak Park. Cassel was on the team but was injured. I had hope. The Chiefs lost 38-24. Croyle fell to 0-9 as a starter. They would finish 4-12 this year.

2010 vs Chargers

This was incredible. I was living in Oak Park but didn't get ESPN, so I came over to Burnsy's apartment on Milwaukee and we watched it together. Awesome game, win 21-14. And as it turns out, the game did ignite a run to the playoffs! I'll always remember this one.

2011 vs Bills

I don't remember this one. This was my first season living in Denver and I had just become a father about 10 days before. I had to look it up. The Bills beat the Chiefs 41-7 and Eric Berry tore his ACL and was out for the year. This is my only recollection. 

2012 vs Falcons

I don't remember this one either. Man. Parenting. This was the first game in our Denver house. Also the Chiefs were real bad. They went 2-14 this year and got beat by the Falcons 40-24 on opening day.

2013 at Jaguars

This one was fun. I remember this one. I was watching at home in Denver with 2 babies. The Chiefs rolled the Jags 28-2. I wrote down these thoughts. This was the start of the Andy Reid/Alex Smith era. Funny how the Chiefs instantly got a whole lot better.

2014 vs Titans

I actually don't remember this one either. A shitty loss to the Titans where Alex Smith was throwing picks and Derrick Johnson was lost for the year. 26-10 Titans.

2015 at Texans

This one I remember! This one was awesome. We were living in Denver and I watched this game over at the Verrettes house on Salford. It featured one of my favorite Kelce highlights ever. Fun fact: I was very high on the Chiefs this year. They proceeded to go on a 5 game losing streak after this, then win all their games and their first playoff game in 22 years. Weird year. Chiefs 27-20.

2016 vs Chargers

Another great one! I was really pissed that the Broncos had lucked into a win on opening night. I have really high hopes for the Chiefs following their playoff win. And they're down 24-3 against the shitty Chargers, a division rival, at home. Christ. And then Alex Smith leads the biggest Chiefs comeback in franchise history. I remember this was the first NFL Sunday in the group Whatsapp chat and it was the last one that I was watching in Denver (thought I didn't know it at the time). Another big win that would lead to a playoff berth. Chiefs 33-27 in OT.

2017 at Patriots

Oh man. This is the best one you could ever hope to have. Three good starts in a row. 4 out of 5 in the Reid/Smith era. This was my first game living in Kansas City, first in the new man cave in the new house. To go into Foxboro and beat the champs on primetime national TV? Chiefs 42-27. Holy shit.

2018 at Chargers

This is not just another big win to start the season. This was the start of the Pat Mahomes era. It's fun watching the Chiefs win in KC. Chiefs 38-28.

2019 at Jaguars

Watched this one at home in KC. Mahomes is the MVP and the Chiefs have Super Bowl aspirations. It was 120 degrees on the sidelines and the Chiefs put up a 40-burger. Andy Reid on a 5-game winning streak in season openers. Chiefs 40, Jaguars 26.

2020 vs Texans

Three years prior, I said this is the best one you could ever hope to have. And then I got to watch the Chiefs kickoff the 2020 season at home because they're the defending Super Bowl Champions. And they kicked ass too. Chiefs 34, Texans 20.

2021 vs Browns

Not sure if you know this but Mahomes is pretty good. Watched this at Brit's parents in KC. Chiefs comeback to win and start this season right. Chiefs 33, Browns 29.

2022 vs Cardinals

Watched the Chiefs roll over Arizona pretty easily at home. Chiefs with Andy Reid are now 9-1 on opening day. Chiefs 44, Cardinals 21.

Derren Brown!!

Although I discovered him around 2008 or 2009, I didn't write about him until 2016. Here's that post where I shared some of my favorite videos. (I just went back and made sure all the links are still active.)

In the last few years, I started accepting that I might never get to see him live. His shows are usually in the UK and who knows how long he'll continue to do stage shows.

In July this year, I went to his site and saw that he was doing a new tour in 2020 called Showman. "Derren is back with first brand-new UK theatre show in five years." I looked at the UK tour sites hoping for a Dublin or London. I figured it would be feasible to fly in for a three-day weekend kind of thing. No Dublin or London though, just smaller cities. So I set up a Google Alert for 2020 derren brown tour, hoping that he would add the big cities.

I've been getting lots of alerts for the UK show so I had kinda stopped paying attention to them. And then yesterday I got this:

I almost deleted it without thinking about it, but I made a connection...Broadway. We have a family vacation already scheduled to NYC in October...

Sure enough, Derren has a short run NYC show called Secret. So what did I do?

I bought a ticket on the floor for October 18. In less than a month I'm going to see Derren Brown on Broadway. Expect a full review.

a truly great entrance

Imagine being in the crowd at the :31 mark. You hear the opening notes. Your brain recognizes the song. You're processing what's about to happen. You know the Beastie Boys should start rapping in about six seconds but the stage is empty. Just a few moments of anticipation before they take the stage in a blur.

And as always, make no mistake, nothing sounds quite like an 8 0 8.

White Whales

Certainly one of the great things about the internet for me is being able to find things that I used to love, and relive those memories. For example, I can easily google "tornado board game" and up comes the 1991 board game Tornado Rex, with commercials, video playthroughs and even ebay listings.

But there have been three things that I was unable to find for a long time. One, I was able to find in 2013. The other two remain elusive.

- - -

1. Blade Warriors

This post is still one of my favorites.

The email response from Fred Tallaksen is incredible, as is the youtube comment from Nick Yukon. What I love about this is that it was a show from 1994. In say, 1997, there would have been no way to track it down. In 2006, I was able to find a bit of info and emailed someone but wasn't sure I had the name right. But someone uploaded video to Youtube in 2009 and I was able to track it down in 2013. Somehow the farther away from something pretty forgettable, the easier it became to find it.

2. A punk-pop violin band I saw in Champaign in 2002

Here's what I emailed to the Champaign radio station in 2006:

No reply. I also emailed Polyvinyl Records, the local music label thinking they would know the scene. No reply. 

But now it's 2019. We have Spotify, YouTube. It should be easy to find, right? At one point, I thought maybe their name was Mitchum, but turns out that's a deodorant.

So now I'm left with two conclusions. Either they were named Mitchell and were so small that there's no trace on the internet. Or I can't remember their name at all, and I'm left searching for a band that played at a party with a violin in a few songs. 

3. a picture find book featuring a family

Niraj was my go-to in 2005 for google help and still in 2018. 

So today, without even re-reading the emails, I searched "scholastic fenders picture find book". Nothing. I go to google images. Here are the results:

Do you see it? 

Do you know what it's like to catch a white whale on your hook? 

Holy shit. I'm not crazy. This did exist. There's even a sequel. 

Just incredible. Now to get eBay copies! Now if only I could track down that stupid band.

Want to see what blows Derek Carr's mind?

Wow. Strong words. This play must have been pretty egregious. Can't believe the refs in Oakland would swing a game like that. Terrible. But let's see the clip in question, shall we?

https://t.co/l4uxAazQev pic.twitter.com/nNM90lS4MP

— Nick Jacobs (@Jacobs71) September 16, 2019

Huh. Turns out the Chiefs defender was reading the quarterback, trying to play the ball, and doesn't initiate any contact. In fact, the Chiefs defender gets runover by the Raider receiver. So when it was called offensive pass interference, it was actually (checks notes) a good call?

Look, the play is whatever, it happens. But don't get high and mighty when you're completely in the wrong.

Also...that's the exact coverage you wanted? lol

Road to Super Bowl LIV: Chapter 1

They are two favorites to win the AFC and both are 2-0. Beyond the Chiefs and Patriots, the Ravens and Bills are also undefeated.

This is the first time being a Super Bowl favorite for me, and there's something I didn't expect. When you have a superior team, you're wary of wonky. What I mean by wonky is mostly weather-related. Like you don't want to play a fog game, or a snow game, when you're a stronger team. 

In their first two games here are the wonky elements they faced:

• 120+ degrees on the sidelines in Jacksonville
• playing without your #1 receiver
• your MVP quarterback sprains his ankle
• surprise facing against Gardener Minshew
• playing football on a baseball diamond
• your starting LT suffers a injury in Friday's practice and misses a game
• two straight games on the road

Bottom line: the Chiefs are 2-0 and already knocked out two road games. They will get a harder test against the Ravens in week 3, but this season is already shaping up like we expected: the regular season is going to be a race between the Patriots and Chiefs to see who can have homefield advantage for the AFC Championship on January 19, 2020. 

The Patriots proved last year they could go on the road to win that game. The Chiefs have a lot more to prove. 

- - -

Do you know Patrick Mahomes? He's the guy that I wrote this about, a year before he became the starter: "The Chiefs best chance to win a Super Bowl in my lifetime is the next 4 years."

Anyways, he's pretty good.

He's already the Chiefs franchise leader in games with 400 passing yards. (He's played 19 games by the way.)

- - -

Here's a list of longest streaks of road games with 3 passing TDs:

Mahomes 7
Brady 6
Favre 5 (hall of fame)
Marino 5 (hall of fame)
Blanda 5 (hall of fame)

Mahomes' streak is active by the way. His next road game is against the Lions.

- - -

With the win, the Chiefs secured a winning record against the Raiders at the Oakland Coliseum...forever.

- - -

Here's a list of most games with 300 pass yards and 3 TDs in first 40 games:

Mahomes 6
Marino 5 (hall of fame)
Warner 5 (hall of fame)

This one is especially funny because Mahomes has only played 19. Even Hall of Famers aren't this good this early.

- - -

Here's a list of most yards in a quarter:

Brees 294 (2008)
Mahomes 278 (today)

- - -

Mahomes is currently on pace for 6,592 yards and 56 touchdowns.

As a reminder, Patrick Mahomes in his first season as a starting quarterback, became the 2nd QB in NFL History to throw 50 touchdowns and 5000 passing yards. Peyton Manning did it once in 2013. Brady, Brees, Marino, Rodgers have never done it. Mahomes is 1 for 1 on the 50/5000 club.

- - -

So this started as a post about the Chiefs and in turned into a list of facts showing how incredible Mahomes is. (Which I'm not apologizing for.) But back to this season...

The Patriots have a soft schedule. They should go 8-0 without too much trouble. And then they just added Antonio Brown who will know the playbook and have chemistry with Brady by the end of the season. They have five tough games and then close with 3 easier ones. So despite a perfect Chiefs start, the Pats are still the favorites to have homefield advantage. It's a long road to glory, but Kansas City is on their way.

Defining my Candy Bar Palate

I know it's super lame to write about candy bars. But I've decided to embrace that. So much so that at one point I considered naming this post "Candy Bars I'm Grooving On" as that was the lamest thing I could think of. I also originally titled it "Candy barssss" which was a text that Brit sent me after I texted it was a rough day at work.

First off, there is a distinction between Halloween fun size candies and every day candy bars. While there is plenty of overlap, there's also some differences. For example, I made this list last year on Twitter, specifically ranking candies on Halloween:

That's a good list. But here's the thing. I'm not going to walk into a gas station and buy a KitKat. Literally never done that and never will. But on Halloween, it's fun to get Snickers, Twix, KitKat, Skittles, the classics. 

But on a random Tuesday in August, when I need a candy bar, what are my options?

Here's what I'm into lately (which makes it sound like I'm an audiophile talking about albums)

Top 4 In Some Order, Depending on Mood
Milky Way Midnight
Take 5
Mounds
Peanut Butter M&M's

Next 2 Up
Nutrageous
York

First, a quick note on Mounds/Almond Joy. Some people mistakenly believe that a Mounds is just an Almond Joy without the almond. Mounds has dark chocolate and Almond Joy has milk chocolate. The difference in chocolate is so great that even though I like the almond, Mounds is a top 4 for me and I don't even consider Almond Joy.

But back to my current favorite 6, here's what I've noticed. My favorites fall into two camps:
Dark Chocolate  (Milky Way Midnight, Mounds, York)
Peanut Butter/Milk Chocolate (Take Five, PB M&M's, Nutrageous)

If you don't have one of those things, I'm not buying you.

(If I'm at a high-end candy store, I would be excited to get some dark chocolate covered toffee or fudge. But the mass market toffee bars (Heath, Skor, etc) don't scratch that same itch.)

The last time I really posted about candy bars was back in 2006, and there are some great comments too.

My tastes haven't really changed that much. And I agree with Niraj that the seasonal Reeses's (eggs, pumpkins, trees, are where it's at). At any rate, this is still my primary plan:

Week 1 Snap Judgments

Obviously 1 game doesn't tell us much about a whole season, but let's ignore that because it's too fun not to jump to conclusions.

Sure looks like AFC Championship will be Chiefs at Patriots, right?

Ravens will win the North.
Chargers are a wild-card.

And Dolphins really are a shoe-in for the #1 pick.

In the NFC, not a ton of surprises. But that's a tough loss for the Bears. And a tough tie for the Lions.

Good to have you back, football.