Monday, January 18, 2021

One Game Away from Super Bowl LV

In the 4th quarter, I turned to Brit and said "this is why you go to the parade when you have the chance."

11 months ago, I stood downtown as red and gold confetti fluttered around me and took a picture of Patrick Mahomes as he rode by on a victory bus. An hour ago, he got knocked out of a playoff game that was comfortably over and an entire city held their breath. 

- - -

At halftime, the Chiefs led 19-3, having scored on all four possessions. They opened the 2nd half by intercepting Baker Mayfield. KC started that drive inside the red zone. I expected the score to be 26-3 in a matter of moments. Instead the Browns defense held and Butker's 33-yd kick doinked off the left upright. Always a bad omen. 

Just off the top of my head, the Colts doinked one against the Chiefs two years ago in Mahomes first playoff game, Tucker doinked two in Saturday's loss vs the Bills. Obviously there's the Bears double doink, but that was the end of the game. I'm talking about doinks that doom a team with plenty of time left. 

After the missed field goal, the Browns respond with their best possession so far, a 77-yard TD drive. The Browns smartly kicked the xp. Way too early to start chasing points. 

It's midway through the 3rd, 19-10. Time to secure the game. 

Chiefs have 3rd and 1 near midfield. On the previous drive, Mayfield ran a qb sneak to convert 3rd and 1. But Andy Reid hasn't called a sneak since Mahomes got injured on one last year. I was literally thinking about that before this play. That it would be nice to pick this yard up, but it's not worth the risk. And then what happens...

Mahomes keeps it on an option play to the right and isn't able to stand up after the tackle. 

All of a sudden, 19-10 doesn't seem like a safe lead any more. All of a sudden, you don't know if Mahomes can come back in the game, come back next week, or if his season is over. All you know is Chad Henne is in the ball game. 

Chiefs add a field goal. 

Browns get a touchdown. 

There's 11 minutes left in a playoff game. No Mahomes. Chiefs up 5. 

One Henne pick-six and the season is over. One Henne sack-fumble and the season is over. 

Henne makes a few big plays to Hill and Kelce. Drives them down to the Browns 23. In position to run a few plays, bleed some clock, even a field goal makes it an 8-point game. But KC gets called for a crack back block and now it is 1st and 25. Henne throws deep and it's an easy interception. 

Browns have the ball, down 5, 8 minutes to go. 80 yards to glory. If you're the Browns, everything has fallen into place. The best player in the game is in the locker room, you're one drive away from knocking out the Champs. 

On the first series, the Browns get a 4th and 1 and sneak it. It burns. Mayfield can do that anytime he wants, getting easy pickups. They can go down the field and win like this. 

Two plays later, it's 3rd and 11. Game on the line. Let's take a closer look. The play starts at 4:31.


At 4:30, Clark is beating his man around the left edge, Jones #95 is pushing his man back up the middle.


A few frames later, still at 4:30, Clark and Jones are closing in. 


At 4:29, the ball is coming out of Mayfield's hands. He is about to be hit by Chris Jones. The pressure has forced Mayfield to dump the ball off to Kareem Hunt instead of waiting for a receiver to get open.


Hunt makes the catch and barely gets to the line of scrimmage before the defender meets him and makes a tackle. Gain of two for the Browns. They punt on 4th and 9. 


But there's still 4:09 to go. Chiefs need at least two first downs with Henne at QB. Which is more than the Browns could get with Mayfield with the game on the line. 

- - -

This was the best regular season in Chiefs history. Mahomes was 23-1 in his last 24 games. And it was all on the verge of slipping away. But because the Chiefs were so good this year...because they got to 14-1 and clinched the #1 seed in Week 16, Chad Henne started Week 17. 

- - -

3rd and 4 with 3:21 to go. Henne dumps it to Darrel Williams in the flat. It's a sprint to the sideline. On a play where the Chiefs need 4, they get 5. 

On 2nd and 8, the Chiefs need to keep the clock moving. But instead of running, Henne is back to pass in the shotgun. Almost fires it to Kelce, but pumps instead, and takes a sack. There was a second where I thought the ball came loose, but he held on. 

So now it's the 2-minute warning. 3rd and 14. You'd love to pick this up but you need to keep the clock running. Also, Mahomes is not an option. 

Reid sends 4 receivers deep, with an RB leaking slowly into the flat on the right. Henne scans and looks for someone to throw it to. Here he is at 1:58, standing on the 26 yard line in the middle of the field.


And here he is five seconds later, diving at the 48 near the sideline. 


It's hard to explain what happened in that gap. The least expected thing possible? Chad Henne turned into Lamar Jackson? 




And then on 4th and 1, Andy Reid dials up a fake draw them offsides, Tyreek speed out. Henne is on the money and it's game over. 

- - -

The absolute wildest stat?

Next Sunday, the 51st AFC Championship Game will be played.

In the 48 seasons without Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs made the game 1 out of 48 times.

In the 3 seasons with Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs are 3 for 3.

Before Mahomes, the Chiefs never hosted an AFC title game. With him, they've never not. 

It's insane. 

I spent so many years wondering if I'd ever see one. Mahomes changed everything. 

- - -

ALSO, having won a Super Bowl changes everything. I was much more at peace on Sunday than I would have been otherwise. There is easily a scenario where the Chiefs lose to the 49ers or even the Texans last year, and then lose to the Browns yesterday. Everyone would say Andy Reid can't win the big one. That Mahomes is overrated and can't stay healthy. I'd have witnessed 3 MVP caliber seasons of Mahomes wondering what it would take to get over the hump. 

We think legacies are carved in stone, but they are fragile as glass. 

- - -

Andy Reid is the only coach to host three consecutive conference title games. And he's done it twice now. 

Chiefs vs Bills, the two best teams in the AFC.
Mahomes vs Allen, the two biggest arms in the league. 

At least, we think it's going to be Mahomes. If he's ruled out for Sunday, then everything changes. Instead of KC being favored by 3, Buffalo would be favored by 4. I mean, Mahomes is worth more than 7 points. Anyways, I'll have to assume he's playing because otherwise, what is the point?

Should be a good game. As long as Mahomes plays the whole game, we'll have a good chance. 

Get past Buffalo and it's either Mahomes vs Rodgers or Mahomes vs Brady.

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