So I went to the store and looked at the bread options. Even the most organic, whole-grain sliced bread is undeniably man-made and not from the earth. This doesn't mean I'm swearing off bread for forever, but for the 4-week challenge: it's off the list. So that really is going to be the hardest challenge, what to eat for lunch without bringing bread to work.
And to answer Niraj's question from the comments...I was referring specifically to Tyson breaded nuggets/patties/dinosaur shapes in the frozen section. Grinding and forming the meat into shapes, even circles is not respectful, and the artificial breading is off the charts.
As for a homemade version, chicken breasts are fine, cage-free eggs would be fine, but the bread crumbs would be a problem. I suppose maybe you could use cornmeal under these rules, but I'm not worried about it. I like grilled chicken and peppers or whatever without needing a breading.
And I'm thinking about doing some eggs for breakfast and I like hot sauce on my eggs. While of course, bottled hot sauce doesn't come from the earth, since it's basically cayenne peppers, I'm thinking a few drops isn't breaking the rules.
(I do read and appreciate any and all comments, so don't be shy.)
Friday, January 08, 2010
playing out the bcs playoffs
What a terribly disappointing BCS postseason. The Humanitarian Bowl was awesome, as was Penn State's win in the Capital One bowl. But the premiere 5 BCS games fell flat. The best was a 17-10 win for Boise State.
But it didn't have to be like that. Here's what could have happened with an 8-team playoff.
- - -
January 1st, Friday
Sugar: #1 Alabama (SEC) vs #8 Ohio State (Big Ten)
These teams both won, but I don't think there's any doubt that Alabama would roll OSU.
Fiesta: #2 Texas (Big 12) vs #7 Oregon (Pac-10)
This one might be closer than you think, but assuming Colt McCoy was healthy coming into this game, it's most likely going to be Texas.
Orange: #3 Cincinnati (Big East) vs #6 Boise State (At-Large)
A round one face-off of undefeated teams. Based on their bowl performances, you'd think Boise State advances.
Rose: #4 TCU (non-BCS automatic) vs #5 Florida (At-Large)
TCU is a great team, but Florida had the most dominating bowl performance.
January 9th, Saturday
Semifinal #1: Sugar winner vs Rose winner (likely Alabama vs Florida)
After the way Florida showed up for the postseason, who is turning this game down? Who wins? Who knows.
Semifinal #2: Fiesta winner vs Orange winner (likely Texas vs Boise State)
Boise State already proved they can beat Oklahoma and a team from Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, I wouldn't doubt they could win this game. Look at this Final Four. It's got great storylines, a rematch, a non-BCS underdog. (Since Alabama is apparently the undisputed national champion, you could pencil them in. But which undefeated team would they play? For Boise to win the national championship, they would have to knock off 3 undefeated teams (Cincinatti, Texas and Alabama).
January 18th, Monday: BCS Championship
Even if we would end up with Alabama-Texas, it would be great. The system would have worked. All the contenders got a fair shot and you'd end up with #1 vs #2.
- - -
The way this season ended, yes we got #1 vs #2, but two teams finished undefeated, Alabama and Boise State.
Can you really say that Alabama is the clear champion? Because Boise is from the WAC? Their 07 Fiesta Bowl performance (against Adrian Peterson, mind you) showed that they can play with anyone. So let Alabama raise their crown. It's not their fault. But they haven't outlasted everyone.
But it didn't have to be like that. Here's what could have happened with an 8-team playoff.
- - -
January 1st, Friday
Sugar: #1 Alabama (SEC) vs #8 Ohio State (Big Ten)
These teams both won, but I don't think there's any doubt that Alabama would roll OSU.
Fiesta: #2 Texas (Big 12) vs #7 Oregon (Pac-10)
This one might be closer than you think, but assuming Colt McCoy was healthy coming into this game, it's most likely going to be Texas.
Orange: #3 Cincinnati (Big East) vs #6 Boise State (At-Large)
A round one face-off of undefeated teams. Based on their bowl performances, you'd think Boise State advances.
Rose: #4 TCU (non-BCS automatic) vs #5 Florida (At-Large)
TCU is a great team, but Florida had the most dominating bowl performance.
January 9th, Saturday
Semifinal #1: Sugar winner vs Rose winner (likely Alabama vs Florida)
After the way Florida showed up for the postseason, who is turning this game down? Who wins? Who knows.
Semifinal #2: Fiesta winner vs Orange winner (likely Texas vs Boise State)
Boise State already proved they can beat Oklahoma and a team from Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, I wouldn't doubt they could win this game. Look at this Final Four. It's got great storylines, a rematch, a non-BCS underdog. (Since Alabama is apparently the undisputed national champion, you could pencil them in. But which undefeated team would they play? For Boise to win the national championship, they would have to knock off 3 undefeated teams (Cincinatti, Texas and Alabama).
January 18th, Monday: BCS Championship
Even if we would end up with Alabama-Texas, it would be great. The system would have worked. All the contenders got a fair shot and you'd end up with #1 vs #2.
- - -
The way this season ended, yes we got #1 vs #2, but two teams finished undefeated, Alabama and Boise State.
Can you really say that Alabama is the clear champion? Because Boise is from the WAC? Their 07 Fiesta Bowl performance (against Adrian Peterson, mind you) showed that they can play with anyone. So let Alabama raise their crown. It's not their fault. But they haven't outlasted everyone.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
Playoffs?!?! (round one)
Saturday, 3:30 (all times central) Jets at Bengals
First up is the game that no one wants to see. Not to mention we already got this game last week. The Jets dominated but that game was in Jersey and the Bengals didn't need to win that game and rested some players.
You can't feel confident with either team. The Bengals are not as good as their record. If a team like the Steelers or Texans was playing them you would jump on them. But it's the Jets with a rookie quarterback on the road. You can't win either way. Classic stay away game.
But hey, it's not my money. Bengals opened as 2.5 point favorites. It's settled at around -3. So perhaps the public isn't sold on the rookie QB. The nfl.com poll is split 50/50.
Since it's like that, I'll split my picks as well.
Bengals straight up for the win. Jets +3. Cinci wins 17-15.
Saturday, 7:00 Eagles at Cowboys
Another rematch from last week. But with good teams! The line started at Dallas -4 and has stayed there. The nfl.com is in favor of Dallas 62/38.
I think divisional games are always close and homefield doesn't matter. I still don't trust Romo in the playoffs.
I'm taking Eagles +4 and for the win. Eagles 30, Cowboys 20
Sunday, noon Ravens at Patriots
Hey look, these teams didn't play last week. Last time they played it was close and the Ravens outrushed the Pats. The Ravens are a good team, and did well last year, but I'm not ready to give up on New England, even sans Welker.
But the betting public might be. It opened at NE -3.5 and settled at -3. Even after 60,000+ votes, the nfl.com is split 50/50 too.
I'm taking the Patriots to cover the three. Pats 31-24.
Sunday, 3:40 Packers at Cardinals
Yet another rematch from week 17. The Packers crushed the Cardinals who didn't try. Will Green Bay be overconfident?
Well the line opened at Cardinals -2.5 and is now at -1. That's a pretty big shift. And the poll is Packers 73/27. That should be a red flag. But I've bought in too.
I like the Packers to win and at +1. Packers 28-13
First up is the game that no one wants to see. Not to mention we already got this game last week. The Jets dominated but that game was in Jersey and the Bengals didn't need to win that game and rested some players.
You can't feel confident with either team. The Bengals are not as good as their record. If a team like the Steelers or Texans was playing them you would jump on them. But it's the Jets with a rookie quarterback on the road. You can't win either way. Classic stay away game.
But hey, it's not my money. Bengals opened as 2.5 point favorites. It's settled at around -3. So perhaps the public isn't sold on the rookie QB. The nfl.com poll is split 50/50.
Since it's like that, I'll split my picks as well.
Bengals straight up for the win. Jets +3. Cinci wins 17-15.
Saturday, 7:00 Eagles at Cowboys
Another rematch from last week. But with good teams! The line started at Dallas -4 and has stayed there. The nfl.com is in favor of Dallas 62/38.
I think divisional games are always close and homefield doesn't matter. I still don't trust Romo in the playoffs.
I'm taking Eagles +4 and for the win. Eagles 30, Cowboys 20
Sunday, noon Ravens at Patriots
Hey look, these teams didn't play last week. Last time they played it was close and the Ravens outrushed the Pats. The Ravens are a good team, and did well last year, but I'm not ready to give up on New England, even sans Welker.
But the betting public might be. It opened at NE -3.5 and settled at -3. Even after 60,000+ votes, the nfl.com is split 50/50 too.
I'm taking the Patriots to cover the three. Pats 31-24.
Sunday, 3:40 Packers at Cardinals
Yet another rematch from week 17. The Packers crushed the Cardinals who didn't try. Will Green Bay be overconfident?
Well the line opened at Cardinals -2.5 and is now at -1. That's a pretty big shift. And the poll is Packers 73/27. That should be a red flag. But I've bought in too.
I like the Packers to win and at +1. Packers 28-13
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
foods from the earth
This post is going to be about as contrary to the previous post as possible.
- - -
The problem with words is that we have all these associations with them. So if I want to describe what's going on with me, and I know that religious is not the right word at all, then I'm left with words like spiritual awakening or enlightened or something like that. And by now, just saying one of the phrases conjures up mental imagery that isn't what I want to convey. The best phrase that I've found is the title of a book that I'm reading right now: Wisdom Walk. So that's what I've tagged this post as, and there might be more of these in the future.
I'd rather keep my actual "creator/afterlife" belief system personal, as it's not anything needs to be shared. But what I can share is some of the tangible changes and action items that I'm taking as part of this wisdom walk. (As a background, I'm currently being positively influenced by Native American/Eastern wisdom/beliefs, and meditation is a key part of both of those systems).
The first idea is based on the idea that we get energy from nature, specifically from walking the earth. It wasn't until it was pointed out to me, that I wake indoors, then walk on cement, to ride a steel train, to walk on more cement to work in a concrete building and then repeat the process home. In my everyday life, my feet never touch the earth.
And even when I do, it's in rubber-soled shoes. So one of my favorite new things are these moccasins with the soft, all-leather exterior. It's just about impossible to find moccasins without outer soles, so these were a nice find. Of course, right now in 20 degree, snowy Chicago, I'm not exactly ready to walk the earth just yet.
- - -
So the other action item is: eating foods that come from the earth. Another thing I didn't realize is how much food I eat is man-made, processed, and something people on a historical timeline aren't used to eating.
Side note: one thing that clicked for me was that eating meat is okay. Inspired by indigenous people, they ate the meat of animals, but did so in a respectful way. They always acknowledged the sacrifice of the animal's life that enabled them to survive. In short, being respectful and eating a chicken breast is okay, breaded chicken nuggets not okay.
So what does come from the earth? And what do I like, of that limited set?
Plants and animals. Plants including vegetables, fruits, and nuts. The less processing the better.
The most reasonable thing to do would be to incorporate these foods into my diet as best as I can. But that's not interesting. So I'm going to jump in with a 4-week challenge starting January 10 (which ends on Super Bowl Sunday) to eat nothing but foods from the earth. So I really need to make a list and draw the lines.
When it comes to grains, corn tortillas are fine. Pasta is too man-made. But what about bread? This straddles the line. Yes, it's from flour, which is made from earthly grains, but is it too far removed from the natural state? I think I'll have to look at the ingredients and judge it on a case by case basis.
As for sauces, olive oil is fine. Which means that I could make my own mayo, since eggs are fine too. I can use honey. And when it comes to mustard or anything else, it's just a matter of checking the label to gauge the level of processing.
Most minimally processed meats should be okay--sausage would be off limits.
Starting in January 07, I've started every day with a high protein bar for breakfast. Completely processed. I think I'll switch to nuts, cashews, peanuts, etc.
Of course the best things would be straight up plants: lettuce, peppers, apples, clementines, potatoes, sweet potatoes. And I'm sure that I'll discover new things in the next four weeks.
I'll check back and let you know how it's going.
- - -
The problem with words is that we have all these associations with them. So if I want to describe what's going on with me, and I know that religious is not the right word at all, then I'm left with words like spiritual awakening or enlightened or something like that. And by now, just saying one of the phrases conjures up mental imagery that isn't what I want to convey. The best phrase that I've found is the title of a book that I'm reading right now: Wisdom Walk. So that's what I've tagged this post as, and there might be more of these in the future.
I'd rather keep my actual "creator/afterlife" belief system personal, as it's not anything needs to be shared. But what I can share is some of the tangible changes and action items that I'm taking as part of this wisdom walk. (As a background, I'm currently being positively influenced by Native American/Eastern wisdom/beliefs, and meditation is a key part of both of those systems).
The first idea is based on the idea that we get energy from nature, specifically from walking the earth. It wasn't until it was pointed out to me, that I wake indoors, then walk on cement, to ride a steel train, to walk on more cement to work in a concrete building and then repeat the process home. In my everyday life, my feet never touch the earth.
And even when I do, it's in rubber-soled shoes. So one of my favorite new things are these moccasins with the soft, all-leather exterior. It's just about impossible to find moccasins without outer soles, so these were a nice find. Of course, right now in 20 degree, snowy Chicago, I'm not exactly ready to walk the earth just yet.
- - -
So the other action item is: eating foods that come from the earth. Another thing I didn't realize is how much food I eat is man-made, processed, and something people on a historical timeline aren't used to eating.
Side note: one thing that clicked for me was that eating meat is okay. Inspired by indigenous people, they ate the meat of animals, but did so in a respectful way. They always acknowledged the sacrifice of the animal's life that enabled them to survive. In short, being respectful and eating a chicken breast is okay, breaded chicken nuggets not okay.
So what does come from the earth? And what do I like, of that limited set?
Plants and animals. Plants including vegetables, fruits, and nuts. The less processing the better.
The most reasonable thing to do would be to incorporate these foods into my diet as best as I can. But that's not interesting. So I'm going to jump in with a 4-week challenge starting January 10 (which ends on Super Bowl Sunday) to eat nothing but foods from the earth. So I really need to make a list and draw the lines.
When it comes to grains, corn tortillas are fine. Pasta is too man-made. But what about bread? This straddles the line. Yes, it's from flour, which is made from earthly grains, but is it too far removed from the natural state? I think I'll have to look at the ingredients and judge it on a case by case basis.
As for sauces, olive oil is fine. Which means that I could make my own mayo, since eggs are fine too. I can use honey. And when it comes to mustard or anything else, it's just a matter of checking the label to gauge the level of processing.
Most minimally processed meats should be okay--sausage would be off limits.
Starting in January 07, I've started every day with a high protein bar for breakfast. Completely processed. I think I'll switch to nuts, cashews, peanuts, etc.
Of course the best things would be straight up plants: lettuce, peppers, apples, clementines, potatoes, sweet potatoes. And I'm sure that I'll discover new things in the next four weeks.
I'll check back and let you know how it's going.
Review: Pepper Jack Cheez-It
It goes without saying that Cheez-It crackers are superior to Cheese Nips or whatever other stupid name wants to compete with them. And Cheez-It already has a wide assortment of flavors: Hot & Spicy, White Cheddar, Cheddar Jack, Parmesan Garlic and two Duoz boxes, with two flavors in one.
But that didn't stop them from coming out with Pepper Jack!
As soon as I saw them I threw a box in my cart. But later I was thinking, wouldn't Hot & Spicy already taste like spicy cheese? how will this be different?
As you can see in this review, the crackers do contain little flecks of peppers (or whatever they really are). I started eating them and right away I was disappointed. The flavor was okay. It was sort of generically spicy, it didn't scream pepper jack but it wasn't bad. No, the dealbreaker was the texture. These crackers were significantly harder, and the "stamped" border was very pronounced. I felt like these were even a smidge smaller than they should be. The end result was a hard, brittle unsatisfactory Cheez-It.
Or is this all in my head?
Basically since my spicy Cheez-It craving had only been teased and not satisfied, I went back and got a box of Hot & Spicy. Right away this box seemed like the crackers were bigger, and the perfect flaky texture. Of course it was crispy and not soft, but you felt like it would be easy to smash with your fingers. The Pepper Jack were so solid that they didn't have any flaky goodness.
So my verdict is if you want a spicy Cheez-It, go with the classic. Even if Pepper Jack is a more appetizing name.
But that didn't stop them from coming out with Pepper Jack!
As soon as I saw them I threw a box in my cart. But later I was thinking, wouldn't Hot & Spicy already taste like spicy cheese? how will this be different?
As you can see in this review, the crackers do contain little flecks of peppers (or whatever they really are). I started eating them and right away I was disappointed. The flavor was okay. It was sort of generically spicy, it didn't scream pepper jack but it wasn't bad. No, the dealbreaker was the texture. These crackers were significantly harder, and the "stamped" border was very pronounced. I felt like these were even a smidge smaller than they should be. The end result was a hard, brittle unsatisfactory Cheez-It.
Or is this all in my head?
Basically since my spicy Cheez-It craving had only been teased and not satisfied, I went back and got a box of Hot & Spicy. Right away this box seemed like the crackers were bigger, and the perfect flaky texture. Of course it was crispy and not soft, but you felt like it would be easy to smash with your fingers. The Pepper Jack were so solid that they didn't have any flaky goodness.
So my verdict is if you want a spicy Cheez-It, go with the classic. Even if Pepper Jack is a more appetizing name.
Tuesday, January 05, 2010
The Top Ten of 2009
312 posts for 260 weekdays. Someone must have been putting in some overtime. Anyways, here's a trip down memory lane of the best I had to offer in 2009:
Honorable Mentions:
Route 26 to Portland Videos
NFL Interconference Rivalries
I felt like this was a solid idea that got lost in the shuffle.
Tweet of the Year
A $19 Burger
Chiefs Beat Steelers
10. Sonic's Jr. Candy Sundae Is Deceiving
What made this so funny was getting all the anonymous comments from people googling sonic's jr. candy sundae.
9. An Asinine Dream
I had completely forgotten about this. Absolutley bat-shit insane.
8. Supersonic ESPY Voting
I love making and watching this videos.
7. Beach Volleyball Championship
Team USA vs. the Soviets.
6. Autopilot's Release
Not a great post, but symbolic of my self-publishing my first novel.
5. Three Sandwich Posts
Mmm...sandwiches.
4. Da Colbert Code 2009
These crack me up, and they're fun to future-blog while we're in Europe.
3. How To Series
The ribs post alone could have made it up here, but combined with roasting a chicken and homemade pizza? Wow.
2. Softball Tournament Championship
What an amazing day. Best athletic achievement of my life.
1. I love this. Can't get enough. Quoting and imitating to this day.
Honorable Mentions:
Route 26 to Portland Videos
NFL Interconference Rivalries
I felt like this was a solid idea that got lost in the shuffle.
Tweet of the Year
A $19 Burger
Chiefs Beat Steelers
10. Sonic's Jr. Candy Sundae Is Deceiving
What made this so funny was getting all the anonymous comments from people googling sonic's jr. candy sundae.
9. An Asinine Dream
I had completely forgotten about this. Absolutley bat-shit insane.
8. Supersonic ESPY Voting
I love making and watching this videos.
7. Beach Volleyball Championship
Team USA vs. the Soviets.
6. Autopilot's Release
Not a great post, but symbolic of my self-publishing my first novel.
5. Three Sandwich Posts
Mmm...sandwiches.
4. Da Colbert Code 2009
These crack me up, and they're fun to future-blog while we're in Europe.
3. How To Series
The ribs post alone could have made it up here, but combined with roasting a chicken and homemade pizza? Wow.
2. Softball Tournament Championship
What an amazing day. Best athletic achievement of my life.
1. I love this. Can't get enough. Quoting and imitating to this day.
CHIEFS BLOW OUT BRONCOS
or CHIEFS KNOCK BRONCOS OUT OF PLAYOFFS
or WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!
With two games to go in the 2009 Campaign, Jamaal Charles had gained 759 rushing yards. To be fair, he only had 145 attempts at that point, averaging over 5 yards a carry. There was talk of him getting to 1,000 yards. It seemed like a nice goal, but something that was a little too ambitious.
And then he went out and got 102 rushing yards against the Bengals. He needed 139 against Denver. He got 259.
The best day a Chiefs running back has ever had.
He didn't just get a 1,000-yard season. He got a 1,100-yard season. The first RB to ever get that many on less than 200 carries. In the history of the NFL.
So good for Charles...but what about the game itself. The Broncos started 6-0 and needed to beat the Chiefs to keep their playoff hopes alive.
At halftime it was 10-10. After a few back and forth drives, up 20-17, Derrick Johnson broke the game open with a 45-yard pick six.
Then when it was 30-24, he did it again, a interception return for touchdown, this time from 60 yards. And for good measure, Charles ran a 56-yard touchdown, his second of the day.
He finished with 259 rushing, and 2 tds, for 37 fantasy points. 4.5 more if you play with bonuses and .5 ppr.
So who gets the game balls?
Well I can't give one to Cassel because of his zero scores and the bad pick. I can't give it to the defense as they gave up tons of yards, and I won't credit Haley for having a linebacker getting two pick-sixes.
So...
#3: Offensive Line
They've been criticized over the past few years, but they showed up today. They wanted to get a 1,000 yard rusher and they did just that. You don't have a running back set a franchise record without having a good day.
#2: Derrick Johnson
The draft pick from Texas who started the year on the bench has been making big plays all year. I don't know what Haley doesn't like about him, because he always seems to come up big. Without him, this defense could have squandered and soured the career day by Charles.
#1: Jamaal Charles
The draft pick from Texas who started the year on the bench...just had his coming out party. This guy is a star. Here are just his highlights from today. Go watch them now.
At least just to see if he can dance at the end.
Eric Dickerson set the single-season rushing mark (in a 16-game season) with 2105, coming on 379 carries. That's a tremendous average of 5.554.
Charles got 1120 yards on 190 carries: 5.895/carry.
- - -
I will give Coach credit for braving the elements on a cold day in Denver. Herm would have been in Constanza's Gore-Tex parka.
- - -
This was a nice way to end the season--to make sure that the Broncos don't make the playoffs, spoiling their good start.
(I hate the Raiders a 10, the Broncos a 9, and the Chargers about a 4. The Raiders is a nasty, bitter rivalry. The Broncos is a mutual respect but solid animosity. And the Chargers, they have nice weather and don't get to riled. They're only mildly annoying compared to the other two.)
This ensured that the Chiefs have made the playoffs more recently (2006) than either the Broncos (2005) or the Raiders (2002). And not only did we knock out Denver, we also prevented the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers from advancing to the playoffs, with an overtime win on my birthday. And the Chiefs won the burget bet fair and clear. For a 4-12 season, not too bad.
or WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!
With two games to go in the 2009 Campaign, Jamaal Charles had gained 759 rushing yards. To be fair, he only had 145 attempts at that point, averaging over 5 yards a carry. There was talk of him getting to 1,000 yards. It seemed like a nice goal, but something that was a little too ambitious.
And then he went out and got 102 rushing yards against the Bengals. He needed 139 against Denver. He got 259.
The best day a Chiefs running back has ever had.
He didn't just get a 1,000-yard season. He got a 1,100-yard season. The first RB to ever get that many on less than 200 carries. In the history of the NFL.
So good for Charles...but what about the game itself. The Broncos started 6-0 and needed to beat the Chiefs to keep their playoff hopes alive.
At halftime it was 10-10. After a few back and forth drives, up 20-17, Derrick Johnson broke the game open with a 45-yard pick six.
Then when it was 30-24, he did it again, a interception return for touchdown, this time from 60 yards. And for good measure, Charles ran a 56-yard touchdown, his second of the day.
He finished with 259 rushing, and 2 tds, for 37 fantasy points. 4.5 more if you play with bonuses and .5 ppr.
So who gets the game balls?
Well I can't give one to Cassel because of his zero scores and the bad pick. I can't give it to the defense as they gave up tons of yards, and I won't credit Haley for having a linebacker getting two pick-sixes.
So...
#3: Offensive Line
They've been criticized over the past few years, but they showed up today. They wanted to get a 1,000 yard rusher and they did just that. You don't have a running back set a franchise record without having a good day.
#2: Derrick Johnson
The draft pick from Texas who started the year on the bench has been making big plays all year. I don't know what Haley doesn't like about him, because he always seems to come up big. Without him, this defense could have squandered and soured the career day by Charles.
#1: Jamaal Charles
The draft pick from Texas who started the year on the bench...just had his coming out party. This guy is a star. Here are just his highlights from today. Go watch them now.
At least just to see if he can dance at the end.
Eric Dickerson set the single-season rushing mark (in a 16-game season) with 2105, coming on 379 carries. That's a tremendous average of 5.554.
Charles got 1120 yards on 190 carries: 5.895/carry.
- - -
I will give Coach credit for braving the elements on a cold day in Denver. Herm would have been in Constanza's Gore-Tex parka.
- - -
This was a nice way to end the season--to make sure that the Broncos don't make the playoffs, spoiling their good start.
(I hate the Raiders a 10, the Broncos a 9, and the Chargers about a 4. The Raiders is a nasty, bitter rivalry. The Broncos is a mutual respect but solid animosity. And the Chargers, they have nice weather and don't get to riled. They're only mildly annoying compared to the other two.)
This ensured that the Chiefs have made the playoffs more recently (2006) than either the Broncos (2005) or the Raiders (2002). And not only did we knock out Denver, we also prevented the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers from advancing to the playoffs, with an overtime win on my birthday. And the Chiefs won the burget bet fair and clear. For a 4-12 season, not too bad.
4th annual nfl picks recap
Well I've studied the effectiveness of in-season NFL predictions, now it's time to check on my preseason picks. Playoff teams in italics. My picks in black, actual standings in blue.
AFC East
Patriots 12-4
Dolphins 7-9
Bills 6-10
Jets 5-11
Patriots 10-6
Jets 9-7
Dolphins 7-9
Bills 6-10
AFC North
Steelers 12-4
Ravens 11-5
Bengals 7-9
Browns 3-13
Bengals 10-6
Ravens 9-7
Steelers 9-7
Browns 5-11
AFC South
Jaguars 10-6
Colts 9-7
Titans 9-7
Texans 8-8
Colts 14-2
Texans 9-7
Titans 8-8
Jaguars 7-9
AFC West
Chargers 13-3
Broncos 6-10
Chiefs 5-11
Raiders 4-12
Chargers 13-3
Broncos 8-8
Raiders 5-11
Chiefs 4-12
NFC East
Giants 11-5
Eagles 9-7
Redskins 7-9
Cowboys 7-9
Cowboys 11-5
Eagles 11-5
Giants 8-8
Redskins 4-12
NFC North
Bears 12-4
Packers 11-5
Vikings 8-8
Lions 3-13
Vikings 12-4
Packers 11-5
Bears 7-9
Lions 2-14
NFC South
Falcons 11-5
Saints 9-7
Bucs 8-8
Panthers 5-11
Saints 13-3
Falcons 9-7
Panthers 8-8
Bucs 3-13
NFC West
Seahawks 9-7
49ers 8-8
Cardinals 6-10
Rams 5-11
Cardinals 10-6
49ers 8-8
Seahawks 5-11
Rams 1-15
- - -
Where to start...
Division Winners: 2/8. crap.
Playoff Teams: 6/12. this is harder than it looks.
Division Losers: 3/8. hmmm.
Prediction Placement in Division 12/32 (7 in afc, 5 in nfc) The AFC West is the only division I had a good handle on, again not a surprise.
Worst Calls: Colts finished 5 better than I thought, Bears and Bucs finished 5 worse than I thought.
Predicted Records Exactly: Dolphins, Bills, Chargers, Packers, 49ers. better than I did last time
AFC East: Pretty good, didn't see the Sanchize coming.
AFC North: Not too terrible, the Bengals didn't come out of nowhere on these picks.
AFC South: I knew that all the teams would have good records, just figured this was the year the Colts can't keep it up.
AFC West: My best picks. If the Chiefs don't blow the game against Oakland in week 2, my picks are right on the money.
NFC East: Didn't know what to make of this division. Cowboys really surprised me.
NFC North: Knew the Packers would be a solid wild-card team, but I kept waiting for the Favre collapse. Apparently 3-13 was too generous for the Lions.
NFC South: I think I wanted to pick the Saints, but figured they didn't have the defense. Watching Carolina, it didn't seem like they were a 8-8 team this year, and I don't know what the hell I was thinking about the Bucs.
NFC West: Wasn't bad. I swapped Cardinals and Seahawks predicting a post Super Bowl swoon.
AFC East
Patriots 12-4
Dolphins 7-9
Bills 6-10
Jets 5-11
Patriots 10-6
Jets 9-7
Dolphins 7-9
Bills 6-10
AFC North
Steelers 12-4
Ravens 11-5
Bengals 7-9
Browns 3-13
Bengals 10-6
Ravens 9-7
Steelers 9-7
Browns 5-11
AFC South
Jaguars 10-6
Colts 9-7
Titans 9-7
Texans 8-8
Colts 14-2
Texans 9-7
Titans 8-8
Jaguars 7-9
AFC West
Chargers 13-3
Broncos 6-10
Chiefs 5-11
Raiders 4-12
Chargers 13-3
Broncos 8-8
Raiders 5-11
Chiefs 4-12
NFC East
Giants 11-5
Eagles 9-7
Redskins 7-9
Cowboys 7-9
Cowboys 11-5
Eagles 11-5
Giants 8-8
Redskins 4-12
NFC North
Bears 12-4
Packers 11-5
Vikings 8-8
Lions 3-13
Vikings 12-4
Packers 11-5
Bears 7-9
Lions 2-14
NFC South
Falcons 11-5
Saints 9-7
Bucs 8-8
Panthers 5-11
Saints 13-3
Falcons 9-7
Panthers 8-8
Bucs 3-13
NFC West
Seahawks 9-7
49ers 8-8
Cardinals 6-10
Rams 5-11
Cardinals 10-6
49ers 8-8
Seahawks 5-11
Rams 1-15
- - -
Where to start...
Division Winners: 2/8. crap.
Playoff Teams: 6/12. this is harder than it looks.
Division Losers: 3/8. hmmm.
Prediction Placement in Division 12/32 (7 in afc, 5 in nfc) The AFC West is the only division I had a good handle on, again not a surprise.
Worst Calls: Colts finished 5 better than I thought, Bears and Bucs finished 5 worse than I thought.
Predicted Records Exactly: Dolphins, Bills, Chargers, Packers, 49ers. better than I did last time
AFC East: Pretty good, didn't see the Sanchize coming.
AFC North: Not too terrible, the Bengals didn't come out of nowhere on these picks.
AFC South: I knew that all the teams would have good records, just figured this was the year the Colts can't keep it up.
AFC West: My best picks. If the Chiefs don't blow the game against Oakland in week 2, my picks are right on the money.
NFC East: Didn't know what to make of this division. Cowboys really surprised me.
NFC North: Knew the Packers would be a solid wild-card team, but I kept waiting for the Favre collapse. Apparently 3-13 was too generous for the Lions.
NFC South: I think I wanted to pick the Saints, but figured they didn't have the defense. Watching Carolina, it didn't seem like they were a 8-8 team this year, and I don't know what the hell I was thinking about the Bucs.
NFC West: Wasn't bad. I swapped Cardinals and Seahawks predicting a post Super Bowl swoon.
analyzing playoff predictions: afc
The AFC field is set:
Colts
Chargers
Patriots
Bengals
Jets
Ravens
- - -
After week 1, I had 4/6 right. I thought the Steelers were clearly in, and I projected the Jaguars as likely. The most interesting story is that I only thought 2 teams had no shot of making the playoffs after week 1: the Browns and the Bengals. If you remember week one, the Bengals lost 7-12 to the Broncos on the flukiest play ever. I figured that if you can only score 7 against the Broncos and then lose in a heart wrenching way that your season was over. Clearly that was not the case.
In week 2, I marked the Colts and Ravens as clearly in, and the Jets, Pats and Chargers as likely. That's 5/6. I also had the Steelers as likely. Bengals were still clearly out in my book.
Still 5/6 in week 3, Bengals moved up to likely out. (Similar to Bluth stock being upgraded to don't buy.)
By week 5, the only team clearly in was the Colts. I was down to 4/6 as the Broncos seemed like they had to get in.
At week 7, I thought that the Steelers were clearly in along with the Colts and Pats. Finally saw the Bengals as a playoff team. Had 4/6 missing the Chargers and Ravens.
Week 9: 4/6. The Jets and Ravens had moved down the list to the bottom of likely out. Steelers were still clearly in.
Week 11: First time had all the clearly in correct: Colts, Pats, Chargers. 4/6 with Jags and Steelers over Ravens/Jets.
Week 13: Still 4/6 without Ravens/Jets.
At week 14, 5/6 with the Broncos in, and the Jets at the bottom of the wild-card fight.
With only one week to go, I was only 5/6, backing the Steelers instead of the Jets.
- - -
The situation didn't get progressively clearer as it did in the NFC. Instead, at every point 4 playoff teams were apparent (although not the same 4 all year) and even early on, 5/6 were known.
Doing a little cumulative math:
After 2 weeks, we know 8/12 NFL playoff teams.
After 7 weeks, we know 9/12.
After 11 week, we know 10/12.
This surprises me a little. This tells me that right out of the gate, we know more than we think we do. Conventional wisdom is that two weeks is too early to judge your season, but not really. After 2 weeks, I identified 9 teams as out of the playoff race, and only 1 of those made it. I picked the 12 I thought would make it, and 8 of them did. And I picked 11 that I thought likely wouldn't make it, but had a shot, 3 of those teams did.
So of those groupings, this was my error rate: 1/9 (11%), 4/12 (33%), 3/11 (27%).
Another way of looking at, is that after 2 weeks, I could be 67% confident of a team making the playoffs (8/12), but I could be 80% confident of a team not making the playoffs (16/20). With 80 percent certainty I could have told 20 teams to stop caring about the NFL after just two games.
I won't chart each team's status but basically the Bengals were the one surprise team this year, the Jets and Ravens were the winners of the wild-card fight, and the Broncos and Steelers collapsed pretty hard.
I think the Jets are really a 7-7 team that doesn't belong there. They got to play the Colts and Bengals in their last two games, teams that had already clinched their playoff spots. If I were the Colts or Chargers I would much rather play the Jets than the Titans, Steelers or even the Texans. But now the Jets are in, and have momentum and have just of good of shot of advancing.
- - -
I won't ever do this again for the whole season, because it's fairly tedious and you don't know the point until the season's over. But it does tell me that two weeks is not too early to make snap judgments, and that mid-way through the season, you pretty much know how a team will finish. (The Titans were an exception this year, but they still couldn't make the playoffs, so what's the point?)
Colts
Chargers
Patriots
Bengals
Jets
Ravens
- - -
After week 1, I had 4/6 right. I thought the Steelers were clearly in, and I projected the Jaguars as likely. The most interesting story is that I only thought 2 teams had no shot of making the playoffs after week 1: the Browns and the Bengals. If you remember week one, the Bengals lost 7-12 to the Broncos on the flukiest play ever. I figured that if you can only score 7 against the Broncos and then lose in a heart wrenching way that your season was over. Clearly that was not the case.
In week 2, I marked the Colts and Ravens as clearly in, and the Jets, Pats and Chargers as likely. That's 5/6. I also had the Steelers as likely. Bengals were still clearly out in my book.
Still 5/6 in week 3, Bengals moved up to likely out. (Similar to Bluth stock being upgraded to don't buy.)
By week 5, the only team clearly in was the Colts. I was down to 4/6 as the Broncos seemed like they had to get in.
At week 7, I thought that the Steelers were clearly in along with the Colts and Pats. Finally saw the Bengals as a playoff team. Had 4/6 missing the Chargers and Ravens.
Week 9: 4/6. The Jets and Ravens had moved down the list to the bottom of likely out. Steelers were still clearly in.
Week 11: First time had all the clearly in correct: Colts, Pats, Chargers. 4/6 with Jags and Steelers over Ravens/Jets.
Week 13: Still 4/6 without Ravens/Jets.
At week 14, 5/6 with the Broncos in, and the Jets at the bottom of the wild-card fight.
With only one week to go, I was only 5/6, backing the Steelers instead of the Jets.
- - -
The situation didn't get progressively clearer as it did in the NFC. Instead, at every point 4 playoff teams were apparent (although not the same 4 all year) and even early on, 5/6 were known.
Doing a little cumulative math:
After 2 weeks, we know 8/12 NFL playoff teams.
After 7 weeks, we know 9/12.
After 11 week, we know 10/12.
This surprises me a little. This tells me that right out of the gate, we know more than we think we do. Conventional wisdom is that two weeks is too early to judge your season, but not really. After 2 weeks, I identified 9 teams as out of the playoff race, and only 1 of those made it. I picked the 12 I thought would make it, and 8 of them did. And I picked 11 that I thought likely wouldn't make it, but had a shot, 3 of those teams did.
So of those groupings, this was my error rate: 1/9 (11%), 4/12 (33%), 3/11 (27%).
Another way of looking at, is that after 2 weeks, I could be 67% confident of a team making the playoffs (8/12), but I could be 80% confident of a team not making the playoffs (16/20). With 80 percent certainty I could have told 20 teams to stop caring about the NFL after just two games.
I won't chart each team's status but basically the Bengals were the one surprise team this year, the Jets and Ravens were the winners of the wild-card fight, and the Broncos and Steelers collapsed pretty hard.
I think the Jets are really a 7-7 team that doesn't belong there. They got to play the Colts and Bengals in their last two games, teams that had already clinched their playoff spots. If I were the Colts or Chargers I would much rather play the Jets than the Titans, Steelers or even the Texans. But now the Jets are in, and have momentum and have just of good of shot of advancing.
- - -
I won't ever do this again for the whole season, because it's fairly tedious and you don't know the point until the season's over. But it does tell me that two weeks is not too early to make snap judgments, and that mid-way through the season, you pretty much know how a team will finish. (The Titans were an exception this year, but they still couldn't make the playoffs, so what's the point?)
Monday, January 04, 2010
Pigskin Pick'em 09 Wrap
Niraj and I cleverly didn't pick all the games, making this harder than it should be.
Here's what it looks like to me:
Dave: 120/212 = Up 28 games
Matthew Berry: 134/256 = Up 12 games
Niraj: 78/151 = Up 5 games
Simmons: 125/256 = Down 6 games
Mark: 123/256 = Down 10 games
Cousin Sal: 120/256 = Down 16 games
- - -
ESPN Leader: 156/256 = Up 56 games
- - -
So the two guys who do a podcast every week about NFL gambling do worse than a coin flip? Really?
- - -
So under the $20 on every game theory, here's how it would have finished:
2009 Season
Dave = Up $560
Niraj = Up $100
Simmons = Down $120
Mark = Down $200
- - -
2008 Season
Sports Guy: 132-116-8 = Up $320
Sports Gal: 128-120-8 = Up $160
Mark 113-105 = Up $160
Dave 111-110 = Up $20
2007 Season
Sports Gal: 135-111-9 = Up $480
Dave: 116-127-11 = Down $220
Sports Guy: 117-129-10 = Down $240
Mark: 100-114-10 = Down $280
2006 Season
Sports Gal: 129-120-7 = Up $180
Sports Guy: 128-121-7 = Up $140
Dave: 129-126 = Up $60
Mark: 90-103 = Down $260
- - -
I crushed it. Best anyone's ever finished in 4 years. How good?
I got 120 right and 92 wrong. At $20 on every game I would have lost $1840 on the year. After Vegas takes their -110 commission out of my projected $2400, I would be given $2181.82.
For a real life profit of $341.82 in the first year of Brittany's new job. Coincidence?
Here's what it looks like to me:
Dave: 120/212 = Up 28 games
Matthew Berry: 134/256 = Up 12 games
Niraj: 78/151 = Up 5 games
Simmons: 125/256 = Down 6 games
Mark: 123/256 = Down 10 games
Cousin Sal: 120/256 = Down 16 games
- - -
ESPN Leader: 156/256 = Up 56 games
- - -
So the two guys who do a podcast every week about NFL gambling do worse than a coin flip? Really?
- - -
So under the $20 on every game theory, here's how it would have finished:
2009 Season
Dave = Up $560
Niraj = Up $100
Simmons = Down $120
Mark = Down $200
- - -
2008 Season
Sports Guy: 132-116-8 = Up $320
Sports Gal: 128-120-8 = Up $160
Mark 113-105 = Up $160
Dave 111-110 = Up $20
2007 Season
Sports Gal: 135-111-9 = Up $480
Dave: 116-127-11 = Down $220
Sports Guy: 117-129-10 = Down $240
Mark: 100-114-10 = Down $280
2006 Season
Sports Gal: 129-120-7 = Up $180
Sports Guy: 128-121-7 = Up $140
Dave: 129-126 = Up $60
Mark: 90-103 = Down $260
- - -
I crushed it. Best anyone's ever finished in 4 years. How good?
I got 120 right and 92 wrong. At $20 on every game I would have lost $1840 on the year. After Vegas takes their -110 commission out of my projected $2400, I would be given $2181.82.
For a real life profit of $341.82 in the first year of Brittany's new job. Coincidence?
preseason lines
Way back in July I noticed that had posted NFL lines, so I thought I would see how I would bet based on those preseason lines. I will post my in-season picks in parens, and then the Chiefs' result after that.
Chiefs +8 over Ravens (Chiefs +8.5) lost by 14
Chiefs -4 over Raiders (Raiders +3.5) lost by 3
Eagles -10 over Chiefs (Eagles -9.5) lost by 20
Giants -5 over Chiefs (Giants -9.5) lost by 11
Cowboys -4 over Chiefs (Cowboys -8.5) lost by 6
Redskins -6 over Chiefs (Chiefs +6.5) won by 8
Chargers -4 over Chiefs (Chargers -4.5) lost by 30
Chiefs +6 over Jaguars (Chiefs +6.5) lost by 3
Chiefs +1 over Raiders (Chiefs +1.5) won by 6
Steelers -6 over Chiefs (Steelers -9.5) won by 3
Chiefs +9 over Chargers (did not pick) lost by 29
Chiefs -2 over Broncos (Chiefs +4.5) lost by 31
Bills PK over Chiefs (Chiefs -.5) lost by 6
Chiefs -2 over Browns (Chiefs -2.5) lost by 7
Chiefs +3.5 over Cincinnati (did not pick) lost by 7
Broncos -3.5 over Chiefs (did not pick) won by 20
- - -
So the most important number would be how I do in-season, and I only went 7-6. Not great considering I should know this team better than the average bettor. Using the preseason pick, I was 7-9. Which makes sense. Vegas is bound to be better then me at forecasting teams months away.
What surprises me is how little the lines shifted. Even when the Chiefs were 2-7 going into the Steelers game, it only shifted 3.5 points. In other cases it moved less than a point. Basically if you had been betting against the Chiefs all year, you would have made some money.
Chiefs +8 over Ravens (Chiefs +8.5) lost by 14
Chiefs -4 over Raiders (Raiders +3.5) lost by 3
Eagles -10 over Chiefs (Eagles -9.5) lost by 20
Giants -5 over Chiefs (Giants -9.5) lost by 11
Cowboys -4 over Chiefs (Cowboys -8.5) lost by 6
Redskins -6 over Chiefs (Chiefs +6.5) won by 8
Chargers -4 over Chiefs (Chargers -4.5) lost by 30
Chiefs +6 over Jaguars (Chiefs +6.5) lost by 3
Chiefs +1 over Raiders (Chiefs +1.5) won by 6
Steelers -6 over Chiefs (Steelers -9.5) won by 3
Chiefs +9 over Chargers (did not pick) lost by 29
Chiefs -2 over Broncos (Chiefs +4.5) lost by 31
Bills PK over Chiefs (Chiefs -.5) lost by 6
Chiefs -2 over Browns (Chiefs -2.5) lost by 7
Chiefs +3.5 over Cincinnati (did not pick) lost by 7
Broncos -3.5 over Chiefs (did not pick) won by 20
- - -
So the most important number would be how I do in-season, and I only went 7-6. Not great considering I should know this team better than the average bettor. Using the preseason pick, I was 7-9. Which makes sense. Vegas is bound to be better then me at forecasting teams months away.
What surprises me is how little the lines shifted. Even when the Chiefs were 2-7 going into the Steelers game, it only shifted 3.5 points. In other cases it moved less than a point. Basically if you had been betting against the Chiefs all year, you would have made some money.
eliminator recap
I went 15/17 in Eliminator, losing when my Chiefs upset the Steelers in week 11. At that point I had already made tentative picks for the rest of the season. Since I was eliminated, I didn't bother changing my picks once it came time for that week's matchup.The only one that I missed the rest of the way was picking the Broncos over the Raiders. Pretty good, but there were at least 50 people that got all 17, so 15/17 isn't worth celebrating too much.
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