Here's an updated list:
QBs to appear in the AFC Championship Game since 2001 when Brady entered the league
Brady: 13
Manning: 5
Roethlisberger: 5
Flacco: 3
Mahomes: 2
Sanchez: 2
Tannehill: 1
Stewart: 1
Gannon: 1
McNair: 1
Plummer: 1
Rivers: 1
Luck: 1
Bortles: 1
So right away pretty cool that Mahomes already has a better resume than Rivers. Although Rivers was never MVP, so I guess Mahomes already had him beat. But this list is a little unwieldy and not that helpful when trying to project the future. So let's narrow our focus to QBs that have been born since 1990.
QBs to appear in the AFC Championship Game that were born since 1990
Mahomes: 2
Bortles: 1
Jackson: 0
Watson: 0
Others that are also on zero but don't even merit being included: Allen, Mayfield, Lock, Brissett, Minshew, Darnold, Carr.
Also, Blake Bortles is no longer a starting quarterback nor in the AFC, so you could remove him but it's kinda funny to leave him in. And he does satisfy all the requirements.
So even if next year is Jackson vs Watson, they're still chasing Mahomes.
Monday, January 13, 2020
Which was most accurate?
Obviously Ravens had a great regular season. But I thought people were going a bit overboard in November. To quote Bill Simmons who is paraphrasing Winston Wolf, let's not start sucking each other's popsicles yet.
Road to Super Bowl LIV: One Home Game Away
The winner would host the AFC Championship. The Chiefs came in as 10-point favorites at home. And the first quarter was the worst you could imagine. Offense, defense, special teams, just horrifically awful.
Give up an opening drive TD to a wide open Kenny Stills.
Drop the ball on 3rd down. Get the punt blocked for a TD.
Drop the ball on 3rd down. Get a stop on D and then muff the punt on your own 6. TD.
It's 21-0 in the first quarter. The crowd is silent. I mean the Chiefs can't catch a single pass. They can't catch a punt. They can't even punt. It's a disaster in every phase.
Mark and I are texting. At 21-0, I remind him that last year in the AFC Championship Game, Chiefs were down 14-0 at the half and got it to overtime. At that point, I'm hoping to cut it to a 14 point deficit by halftime. I texted Mark, "Need this quarter to end so we can start going the good way."
In early 2nd quarter, Texans have a 3rd and 9. Sorenson makes the tackle a foot short of the first down. Texans line up to go for it but aren't ready and call timeout. This was the turning point of the game. The Chiefs needed some momentum. I was hoping Texans would go for it and get stopped and they would be the spark the Chiefs needed. Mark (also rooting for the Chiefs) wanted them to kick because he didn't think Chiefs could get the stop. After the timeout, O'Brien decides to kick on 4th and 1 and make it 24-0.
Mecole Hardman catches the ensuing kickoff at the goal line. He's a rookie. He's also in the Pro Bowl as a returner.
He takes it 58 yards and everything changes. The crowd is into it.
Next play: Mahomes to Kelce is the first good offensive play.
Next play: Mahomes to Williams for the score. It took less than a minute once Hardman touched the ball.
Chiefs force a 3 and out. And you can feel that the momentum has shifted.
On 4th and 4 from the Texans 31, they call a fake punt. As soon as it's snapped, my heart sinks. They only needed 4. It looks like the runner has the edge easily. But Dirty Dan Sorensen makes the tackle of his life.
With a short field, Mahomes goes to Kelce twice in a row and finds the sweet nectar of the end zone.
At 24-14 I said now it's a normal game again. We don't have to panic, just play our game, try to get stops.
Ensuing kickoff...Sorensen pops the ball out of the returners' hands. The ball did something that you never see happen. It pops up. And floats directly into the hands of Darwin Thompson. Like out of a movie.
On 3rd and goal, Mahomes rolled out and found Kelce again.
In less than 5 minutes, the Chiefs scored 3 touchdowns and turned a blowout into anybody's game.
Chiefs D forces a punt and KC takes over on their own 10. Most of the time in the NFL, that's a recipe for a punt. But most of the league doesn't have Patrick Mahomes.
90-yard drive before the half ends with Mahomes dragging his toe across the line of scrimmage for a legal pass.
21 points was the largest deficit Mahomes had faced in his career. He erased it one quarter.
Halftime: 28-24 Chiefs. The most first half points in playoff history.
Oh yeah, the Chiefs would open the 2nd half with an 85-yard TD drive.
On 3rd and 5, Frank Clark was down on the ground after missing Watson, but then got up and still sacked him.
Chiefs come back and score another TD. That's 41 in a row.
The Texans finally score. So the Chiefs score again to make it 48-31. That's seven straight touchdowns. Yeah, that's never happened in the playoffs.
So what happens when Mahomes faces a huge deficit? He reels off more TD drives than anyone in playoff history. This is something I've noted before. Like at the end of the Pats game last year, the Titans game this year, when he's in a hole and desperately needs to manufacture something...he delivers. We just don't noticed how incredibly clutch he is because they've often built a huge lead early.
The Chiefs close the game out by stopping them on 4th down and adding a field goal to hang a 50-burger on them.
How rare is a 50-burger in the playoffs? Since the merger, there have been 8.
All winners by the way. So that's a surefire way to win a playoff game. Just score 50.
Where does this rank on playoff comebacks?
1. Bills 41, Oilers 38, OT, in AFC Wild Card (Jan. 3, 1993)
Biggest deficit: 32 points. Houston led 35-3 with 8:53 remaining in the third quarter.
2. Colts 45, Chiefs 44 in AFC Wild Card (Jan. 4, 2014)
Biggest deficit: 28 points. Kansas City led 38-10 with 11:48 remaining in the third quarter.
3. Patriots 34, Falcons 28, OT, in Super Bowl 51 (Feb. 5, 2017)
Biggest deficit: 25 points. Atlanta led 28-3 with 2:07 remaining in the third quarter.
t-4. 49ers 39, Giants 38 in NFC Wild Card Round (Jan. 5, 2003)
Biggest deficit: 24 points. New York led 38-14 with 2:08 remaining in the third quarter.
t-4. Chiefs 51, Texans 31 in AFC Divisional Round (Jan. 12, 2020)
Biggest deficit: 24 points. Houston led 24-0 with 9:56 remaining in the second quarter.
Now we're on the list of top 5 playoff comebacks in a good way. Just one point behind 28-3.
Oh yeah, it was also the best comeback in Chiefs franchise history. Previous record was 21 points set by the 2016 Chiefs vs the Chargers on opening day.
The other cool record is only team to ever win by 20 in the playoffs after trailing by 20. Turned a blowout into a blowout for them.
When it's phrased like this, it really sinks in how improbable that game was. To trail by 24 in the first half and have the lead at halftime you have to be horrendously bad for a solid stretch and then flip it completely to be even better than the other team was just beating you. There's a reason this has never happened. It's just that crazy.
In the first half, I had a flashback to the feeling I had on March 26, 2005. All of that season I had been expecting Illinois to go to the Final Four. And then Illinois was losing by 15 late in the second half and I had to come to terms with the fact that Illinois was not going to the Final Four.
When the Chiefs were down 21-0 and Brittany is asking me what is happening, I had no answers. I thought this team could go to the Super Bowl and they're getting their doors blown off, just like the Ravens had the night before. I felt dumb for making a big deal of taking a picture of my kids in our Chiefs gear. I felt dumb for thinking this team was special.
My mental flashback wasn't related to the comeback. It was about processing disappointment.
And then all of a sudden, I was right back there on Bash Court Apartment 3 for a different reason. Watching the best comeback in my team's history. For both games, Mark and I were rooting for the same team, watching each play together. Just this time he was on the other side of the world.
- - -
On Sunday, January 19th, the 50th AFC Championship Game will be played.
In the 48 seasons without Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs made the game 1 out of 48 times.
In the 2 seasons with Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs are 2 for 2.
(Also, the one without him was on the road. Both with him are home games. Just neat.)
He becomes first player under 25 to throw 5 TDs in the playoffs.
- - -
Fun Frank Clark Facts: He set the Chiefs playoff record for three sacks. And makes it to the Conference Championship round, something he never did with the Seahawks. Seeing them get eliminated last night, he probably felt pretty good about signing with KC.
- - -
The Chiefs are one game away from the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are one home game away from the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are one home game vs the 6-seed away from the Super Bowl.
Oh my God.
Breathe.
- - -
And now we're on to the AFC Championship Game.
Win and you advance to a Super Bowl. A chance for Reid to secure his legacy. A chance for Mahomes to make the ultimate mark on his resume.
Lose and people start to talk. They'll bring up Reid's string of losses in the NFC Championship Game as Eagles coach. That Reid and Mahomes can't win the big one, ignoring how difficult it is to reach the Championship Game in the first place.
No pressure.
- - -
The Chiefs went from a team that couldn't catch a pass, catch a punt, or even punt the ball to a team that rewrote the history books.
Hardman with the return.
Sorensen with the fake punt tackle and forced fumble.
Travis Kelce couldn't be stopped.
Frank Clark got pressure by himself.
Mathieu making plays in the secondary.
Damien Williams scored three times.
And Patrick Mahomes played perfectly from start to finish. Didn't force a pass when trailing big. Made plays with his feet when they took away the receivers. Played lights out.
Last year when previewing the Colts playoff game, my confidence was founded in the fact that we have Patrick Mahomes and you don't. And that is even truer today.
Give up an opening drive TD to a wide open Kenny Stills.
Drop the ball on 3rd down. Get the punt blocked for a TD.
Drop the ball on 3rd down. Get a stop on D and then muff the punt on your own 6. TD.
It's 21-0 in the first quarter. The crowd is silent. I mean the Chiefs can't catch a single pass. They can't catch a punt. They can't even punt. It's a disaster in every phase.
Mark and I are texting. At 21-0, I remind him that last year in the AFC Championship Game, Chiefs were down 14-0 at the half and got it to overtime. At that point, I'm hoping to cut it to a 14 point deficit by halftime. I texted Mark, "Need this quarter to end so we can start going the good way."
In early 2nd quarter, Texans have a 3rd and 9. Sorenson makes the tackle a foot short of the first down. Texans line up to go for it but aren't ready and call timeout. This was the turning point of the game. The Chiefs needed some momentum. I was hoping Texans would go for it and get stopped and they would be the spark the Chiefs needed. Mark (also rooting for the Chiefs) wanted them to kick because he didn't think Chiefs could get the stop. After the timeout, O'Brien decides to kick on 4th and 1 and make it 24-0.
Mecole Hardman catches the ensuing kickoff at the goal line. He's a rookie. He's also in the Pro Bowl as a returner.
He takes it 58 yards and everything changes. The crowd is into it.
Next play: Mahomes to Kelce is the first good offensive play.
Next play: Mahomes to Williams for the score. It took less than a minute once Hardman touched the ball.
Chiefs force a 3 and out. And you can feel that the momentum has shifted.
On 4th and 4 from the Texans 31, they call a fake punt. As soon as it's snapped, my heart sinks. They only needed 4. It looks like the runner has the edge easily. But Dirty Dan Sorensen makes the tackle of his life.
With a short field, Mahomes goes to Kelce twice in a row and finds the sweet nectar of the end zone.
At 24-14 I said now it's a normal game again. We don't have to panic, just play our game, try to get stops.
Ensuing kickoff...Sorensen pops the ball out of the returners' hands. The ball did something that you never see happen. It pops up. And floats directly into the hands of Darwin Thompson. Like out of a movie.
On 3rd and goal, Mahomes rolled out and found Kelce again.
In less than 5 minutes, the Chiefs scored 3 touchdowns and turned a blowout into anybody's game.
Chiefs D forces a punt and KC takes over on their own 10. Most of the time in the NFL, that's a recipe for a punt. But most of the league doesn't have Patrick Mahomes.
90-yard drive before the half ends with Mahomes dragging his toe across the line of scrimmage for a legal pass.
21 points was the largest deficit Mahomes had faced in his career. He erased it one quarter.
Halftime: 28-24 Chiefs. The most first half points in playoff history.
Oh yeah, the Chiefs would open the 2nd half with an 85-yard TD drive.
On 3rd and 5, Frank Clark was down on the ground after missing Watson, but then got up and still sacked him.
Chiefs come back and score another TD. That's 41 in a row.
The Texans finally score. So the Chiefs score again to make it 48-31. That's seven straight touchdowns. Yeah, that's never happened in the playoffs.
So what happens when Mahomes faces a huge deficit? He reels off more TD drives than anyone in playoff history. This is something I've noted before. Like at the end of the Pats game last year, the Titans game this year, when he's in a hole and desperately needs to manufacture something...he delivers. We just don't noticed how incredibly clutch he is because they've often built a huge lead early.
The Chiefs close the game out by stopping them on 4th down and adding a field goal to hang a 50-burger on them.
How rare is a 50-burger in the playoffs? Since the merger, there have been 8.
All winners by the way. So that's a surefire way to win a playoff game. Just score 50.
Where does this rank on playoff comebacks?
1. Bills 41, Oilers 38, OT, in AFC Wild Card (Jan. 3, 1993)
Biggest deficit: 32 points. Houston led 35-3 with 8:53 remaining in the third quarter.
2. Colts 45, Chiefs 44 in AFC Wild Card (Jan. 4, 2014)
Biggest deficit: 28 points. Kansas City led 38-10 with 11:48 remaining in the third quarter.
3. Patriots 34, Falcons 28, OT, in Super Bowl 51 (Feb. 5, 2017)
Biggest deficit: 25 points. Atlanta led 28-3 with 2:07 remaining in the third quarter.
t-4. 49ers 39, Giants 38 in NFC Wild Card Round (Jan. 5, 2003)
Biggest deficit: 24 points. New York led 38-14 with 2:08 remaining in the third quarter.
t-4. Chiefs 51, Texans 31 in AFC Divisional Round (Jan. 12, 2020)
Biggest deficit: 24 points. Houston led 24-0 with 9:56 remaining in the second quarter.
Now we're on the list of top 5 playoff comebacks in a good way. Just one point behind 28-3.
Oh yeah, it was also the best comeback in Chiefs franchise history. Previous record was 21 points set by the 2016 Chiefs vs the Chargers on opening day.
The other cool record is only team to ever win by 20 in the playoffs after trailing by 20. Turned a blowout into a blowout for them.
In the first half, I had a flashback to the feeling I had on March 26, 2005. All of that season I had been expecting Illinois to go to the Final Four. And then Illinois was losing by 15 late in the second half and I had to come to terms with the fact that Illinois was not going to the Final Four.
When the Chiefs were down 21-0 and Brittany is asking me what is happening, I had no answers. I thought this team could go to the Super Bowl and they're getting their doors blown off, just like the Ravens had the night before. I felt dumb for making a big deal of taking a picture of my kids in our Chiefs gear. I felt dumb for thinking this team was special.
My mental flashback wasn't related to the comeback. It was about processing disappointment.
And then all of a sudden, I was right back there on Bash Court Apartment 3 for a different reason. Watching the best comeback in my team's history. For both games, Mark and I were rooting for the same team, watching each play together. Just this time he was on the other side of the world.
- - -
On Sunday, January 19th, the 50th AFC Championship Game will be played.
In the 48 seasons without Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs made the game 1 out of 48 times.
In the 2 seasons with Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs are 2 for 2.
(Also, the one without him was on the road. Both with him are home games. Just neat.)
He becomes first player under 25 to throw 5 TDs in the playoffs.
- - -
Fun Frank Clark Facts: He set the Chiefs playoff record for three sacks. And makes it to the Conference Championship round, something he never did with the Seahawks. Seeing them get eliminated last night, he probably felt pretty good about signing with KC.
- - -
The Chiefs are one game away from the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are one home game away from the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are one home game vs the 6-seed away from the Super Bowl.
Oh my God.
Breathe.
- - -
And now we're on to the AFC Championship Game.
Win and you advance to a Super Bowl. A chance for Reid to secure his legacy. A chance for Mahomes to make the ultimate mark on his resume.
Lose and people start to talk. They'll bring up Reid's string of losses in the NFC Championship Game as Eagles coach. That Reid and Mahomes can't win the big one, ignoring how difficult it is to reach the Championship Game in the first place.
No pressure.
- - -
The Chiefs went from a team that couldn't catch a pass, catch a punt, or even punt the ball to a team that rewrote the history books.
Hardman with the return.
Sorensen with the fake punt tackle and forced fumble.
Travis Kelce couldn't be stopped.
Frank Clark got pressure by himself.
Mathieu making plays in the secondary.
Damien Williams scored three times.
And Patrick Mahomes played perfectly from start to finish. Didn't force a pass when trailing big. Made plays with his feet when they took away the receivers. Played lights out.
Last year when previewing the Colts playoff game, my confidence was founded in the fact that we have Patrick Mahomes and you don't. And that is even truer today.
Friday, January 10, 2020
Divisional Sportsbook
If I was in Vegas this weekend, I'd put $50 on both of these bets
2 team teaser: 49ers -1 AND Chiefs -4
Titans +10
2 team teaser: 49ers -1 AND Chiefs -4
Titans +10
Thursday, January 09, 2020
Top Three Teams Left are in the AFC
Baltimore earned the 1-seed with a 14-2 record and their reward is getting to face the Titans. Chiefs are hosting the Texans.
Tuesday, January 07, 2020
Monday, January 06, 2020
The Future of the AFC Is Here
Let's start with one of my favorite lists: QBs to appear in the AFC Championship Game since 2001 when Brady entered the league.
Brady: 13
Manning: 5
Roethlisberger: 5
Flacco: 3
Sanchez: 2
Mahomes: 1
Stewart: 1
Gannon: 1
McNair: 1
Plummer: 1
Rivers: 1
Luck: 1
Bortles: 1
Trent Green/Matt Cassel/Alex Smith: 0
Every year only 2 out of 16 QBs make it. So even the greats don't make it all that often. Peyton Manning played 17 seasons and made it 5 times.
Rivers has made it to 8 Pro Bowls in 14 seasons as a starter. 1 appearance in the AFC title game. It's hard to do.
The last time that the AFC Championship Game didn't feature Brady, Manning or Big Ben was in the 2002-03 playoffs. The Raiders hosted the Titans. Jerry Rice played in the game.
That's 16 straight games featuring at least one of Brady/Manning/Big Ben. Often more than one. In the last 16 games/32 slots, there have been 22 appearances by the big three.
But that streak is over.
This year's two slots will be divvied up among Mahomes, Watson, and Jackson. (And possibly Tannehill. Which doesn't fit the clean narrative that I'm building, but whatever.)
It's possible that Mahomes, Watson and Jackson are the next big three. Or it's possible that the AFC will be more like the NFC with more parity. (If I had to pick, I'd bet on the former.)
Oh and by the way, they happen to be the three AFC Pro Bowl QBs as well. Mahomes and Watson are 24. Jackson is 22.
We don't know if we're in a post-Brady world yet. But let's say that it is. This weekend, two people will claim the first QB appearances in a post-Brady world.
Oh and the streak for Mahomes/Watson/Jackson is already at two years. Mahomes was in the game last year.
Brady: 13
Manning: 5
Roethlisberger: 5
Flacco: 3
Sanchez: 2
Mahomes: 1
Stewart: 1
Gannon: 1
McNair: 1
Plummer: 1
Rivers: 1
Luck: 1
Bortles: 1
Trent Green/Matt Cassel/Alex Smith: 0
Every year only 2 out of 16 QBs make it. So even the greats don't make it all that often. Peyton Manning played 17 seasons and made it 5 times.
Rivers has made it to 8 Pro Bowls in 14 seasons as a starter. 1 appearance in the AFC title game. It's hard to do.
The last time that the AFC Championship Game didn't feature Brady, Manning or Big Ben was in the 2002-03 playoffs. The Raiders hosted the Titans. Jerry Rice played in the game.
That's 16 straight games featuring at least one of Brady/Manning/Big Ben. Often more than one. In the last 16 games/32 slots, there have been 22 appearances by the big three.
But that streak is over.
This year's two slots will be divvied up among Mahomes, Watson, and Jackson. (And possibly Tannehill. Which doesn't fit the clean narrative that I'm building, but whatever.)
It's possible that Mahomes, Watson and Jackson are the next big three. Or it's possible that the AFC will be more like the NFC with more parity. (If I had to pick, I'd bet on the former.)
Oh and by the way, they happen to be the three AFC Pro Bowl QBs as well. Mahomes and Watson are 24. Jackson is 22.
We don't know if we're in a post-Brady world yet. But let's say that it is. This weekend, two people will claim the first QB appearances in a post-Brady world.
Oh and the streak for Mahomes/Watson/Jackson is already at two years. Mahomes was in the game last year.
Sunday, January 05, 2020
What a perfect football day
It finally happened. For the first time in 10 years, the Patriots didn't make the AFC Championship. They didn't even make it to the Divisional Round.
They lost to Ryan Tannehill and the Titans at home.
In a game they were playing because they lost to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins at home.
And it couldn't have worked out better for the Chiefs.
I'd rather play the Texans than any of Patriots/Titans/Ravens. Which means we'll only have to play one of Patriots/Titans/Ravens to make the Super Bowl. And if it's Titans, that game is at Arrowhead. I'll say it again. Chiefs only have to beat one of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson to make the Super Bowl. I'm sure I'll get into it more, but the Texans are not intimidating. Deshaun Watson is, but the Texans are very beatable. Can't wait.
They lost to Ryan Tannehill and the Titans at home.
In a game they were playing because they lost to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins at home.
And it couldn't have worked out better for the Chiefs.
I'd rather play the Texans than any of Patriots/Titans/Ravens. Which means we'll only have to play one of Patriots/Titans/Ravens to make the Super Bowl. And if it's Titans, that game is at Arrowhead. I'll say it again. Chiefs only have to beat one of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson to make the Super Bowl. I'm sure I'll get into it more, but the Texans are not intimidating. Deshaun Watson is, but the Texans are very beatable. Can't wait.
Friday, January 03, 2020
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
The Top Ten of 2019
A year ago, I was suddenly unemployed. It was hard to reflect upon 2018 and be appreciative in the midst of financial instability and uncertainty. But once again, having gone through a difficult situation and come out the other side, I have an ever greater appreciation for my life and everyone and everything in it.
I'm quite confident that one day we will look back on this era with great fondness.
Honorable Mentions
Harrison Had a Killer Bracket
The Fight in Fighting Illini
Championship Cities
Avs Win a Playoff Series
Sportsbook Success
10. Chiefs-Colts Game
This one made it mainly for the joke about the run defense.
9. Squad Goals
Found some new aspirations.
8. Guide to Keeping Sports Trophies
When someone dents a Lombardi, I wanted to get to the bottom of it.
7. Chiefs Host the AFC Championship
This was incredible, the farthest I've seen them go.
6. White Whales
Writing this post unfolded a twist in real-time.
5. Defining My Wheelhouse
I got self-reflective and figured out what I'm into.
4. Derren Brown
Got to see Derren Brown in person for the first time...and go on stage.
3. The Ultimate Movie Calendar
Who else is doing posts like these?
2. Ranking the NFL Fan Experiences
This was a fun one to think about.
and my favorite post of the year: Number One
I'm quite confident that one day we will look back on this era with great fondness.
Honorable Mentions
Harrison Had a Killer Bracket
The Fight in Fighting Illini
Championship Cities
Avs Win a Playoff Series
Sportsbook Success
10. Chiefs-Colts Game
This one made it mainly for the joke about the run defense.
9. Squad Goals
Found some new aspirations.
8. Guide to Keeping Sports Trophies
When someone dents a Lombardi, I wanted to get to the bottom of it.
7. Chiefs Host the AFC Championship
This was incredible, the farthest I've seen them go.
6. White Whales
Writing this post unfolded a twist in real-time.
5. Defining My Wheelhouse
I got self-reflective and figured out what I'm into.
4. Derren Brown
Got to see Derren Brown in person for the first time...and go on stage.
3. The Ultimate Movie Calendar
Who else is doing posts like these?
2. Ranking the NFL Fan Experiences
This was a fun one to think about.
and my favorite post of the year: Number One
Monday, December 30, 2019
Road to Super Bowl LIV: Two Games Away
Before the season started, my eyes were focused on homefield advantage. I assumed it was a two-team race between Patriots and Chiefs.
Through 4 games here were the AFC Standings:
Everything started according to plan.
The Chiefs then lost their next two games with their defense becoming exposed. Then Mahomes got injured in the first half at Denver. At that point, it seemed like a lost season, expecting to hear that QB1 was out for the year or most of it.
But the defense lifted the team up and the Chiefs went 2-1 without Mahomes.
He came back for the game vs the Titans. Before the game, Nick Wright predicted that the 6-3 Chiefs would run the table and win the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs had a 98% chance of winning that Titans game late. Then they botched a field goal and choked defensively. Mahomes still led the team down in the final seconds but the last field goal was blocked.
The Chiefs were now 6-4 and in danger of missing the playoffs. Nick Wright had egg on his face. There was talk of the Raiders or Chargers winning the division.
At that point the banged up Chiefs reeled off 6 in a row.
Chargers. Raiders. Patriots. Broncos. Bears. Chargers.
4 divisional games that are supposed to be anybody's game but are actually only Andy Reid's. Beat the Broncos in the snow. Blew out the Bears. And shut down the Patriots in Foxboro.
12-4. Last year that was good enough for the #1 seed. But this year would only be good enough for the #3 seed. What's that...let's go to the moment after the Chiefs scored to secure their Week 17 win...
That was the best moment of the 2019 Chiefs regular season. To be sitting there watching the Chiefs on TV and have the announcer take over and start calling a second game. Just a perfect moment. And then the crowd finds out and everyone starts jumping up and down. I'M CALLING BOTH GAMES!
So after all that worrying about that Titans choke job, it didn't matter. (Whispers: In fact, it helped us get Suggs on the waiver wire, however much that might help, we'll see.)
So the Chiefs get the bye. That's an extra week to get healthy. An extra week to study the Patriots. A week that the Patriots won't have to get healthy or study the Chiefs. And the Chiefs next game is at home.
A Chiefs appearance in the AFC Championship will either be Chiefs at Baltimore or Titans/Texans/Bills at Kansas City.
So first good news, it's not going to end the same way as last year against the Patriots in the AFC Championship.
- - -
Not too much more to say since we don't even know our next opponent. There will be more to write about in the coming weeks. So for now let's pause and just take this moment to enjoy this song.
Oh and by the way, so far everything in this video has come true.
✅Won the division
✅Beat Phil Rivers twice
✅Beat Tom Brady
❓ Headed to Miami
Through 4 games here were the AFC Standings:
Everything started according to plan.
The Chiefs then lost their next two games with their defense becoming exposed. Then Mahomes got injured in the first half at Denver. At that point, it seemed like a lost season, expecting to hear that QB1 was out for the year or most of it.
But the defense lifted the team up and the Chiefs went 2-1 without Mahomes.
He came back for the game vs the Titans. Before the game, Nick Wright predicted that the 6-3 Chiefs would run the table and win the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs had a 98% chance of winning that Titans game late. Then they botched a field goal and choked defensively. Mahomes still led the team down in the final seconds but the last field goal was blocked.
The Chiefs were now 6-4 and in danger of missing the playoffs. Nick Wright had egg on his face. There was talk of the Raiders or Chargers winning the division.
At that point the banged up Chiefs reeled off 6 in a row.
Chargers. Raiders. Patriots. Broncos. Bears. Chargers.
4 divisional games that are supposed to be anybody's game but are actually only Andy Reid's. Beat the Broncos in the snow. Blew out the Bears. And shut down the Patriots in Foxboro.
12-4. Last year that was good enough for the #1 seed. But this year would only be good enough for the #3 seed. What's that...let's go to the moment after the Chiefs scored to secure their Week 17 win...
Kevin Harlan is OUTSTANDING.— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) December 29, 2019
Announcing the Chiefs game, he gives play-by-play of the Dolphins taking the lead over the Patriots to secure a bye for KC.
This call is amazing, the crowd reaction is tremendous, the Chiefs player reaction is incredible. I love EVERYTHING about it. pic.twitter.com/imVO3B9IkJ
That was the best moment of the 2019 Chiefs regular season. To be sitting there watching the Chiefs on TV and have the announcer take over and start calling a second game. Just a perfect moment. And then the crowd finds out and everyone starts jumping up and down. I'M CALLING BOTH GAMES!
So after all that worrying about that Titans choke job, it didn't matter. (Whispers: In fact, it helped us get Suggs on the waiver wire, however much that might help, we'll see.)
So the Chiefs get the bye. That's an extra week to get healthy. An extra week to study the Patriots. A week that the Patriots won't have to get healthy or study the Chiefs. And the Chiefs next game is at home.
A Chiefs appearance in the AFC Championship will either be Chiefs at Baltimore or Titans/Texans/Bills at Kansas City.
So first good news, it's not going to end the same way as last year against the Patriots in the AFC Championship.
- - -
Not too much more to say since we don't even know our next opponent. There will be more to write about in the coming weeks. So for now let's pause and just take this moment to enjoy this song.
Kansas City, this one's for you.@PatrickMahomes: A Special Live Music Video pic.twitter.com/a1k4rVd9HX— The Ringer (@ringer) September 22, 2019
Oh and by the way, so far everything in this video has come true.
✅Won the division
✅Beat Phil Rivers twice
✅Beat Tom Brady
❓ Headed to Miami
Making the Case for NFL Playoff Teams
The list of teams that can win Super Bowl LIV has been narrowed from 32 to 12. Here's the case for and against all of them.
Baltimore Ravens
FOR
They've been the best, hottest and most consistent team in the league.
They've won 12 in a row.
They have the 2019 MVP, Lamar Jackson.
They'll have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
They have an electric offense, strong defense and elite special teams too.
Even playing 2nd string, they can crush a wild-card level team.
On paper, they don't really have any weaknesses.
They're the Vegas favorite to win the damn thing for a reason.
They've beat excellent teams this year.
AGAINST
Lamar Jackson is 0-1 in the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson's Ravens are 0-2 vs the Chiefs.
If you're making parallels to last year, this year's Ravens are last year's Chiefs. Young QB takes the league by storm and gets crowned the MVP. A team that had so much success and didn't have to face that much adversity. And last year the MVP came up one defensive stop short of getting to the Super Bowl.
Perhaps they peaked in November?
Kansas City Chiefs
FOR
They were one play away from the Super Bowl with a crappy defense and over the last month, their defense has been a top 5 unit.
They're peaking at the right time, entering the postseason with a 6-game winning streak.
They beat the Ravens and Patriots this year.
They've won in heat, snow and at altitude.
They have the reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes.
Earning the bye and a week to rest + prepare, plus getting a home game is a big boost.
They've seemed like the only team that can handle Lamar Jackson.
Damien Williams has fresh legs.
AGAINST
The offense hasn't put up numbers like they did last year.
The defense has had moments of weakness, at the end of the Titans game and the Colts stampede come to mind.
Although mostly healthy now, the team has battled injuries all year. Their chemistry with each other is probably not at it's peak.
The injury to Juan Thornhill (safety) could prove costly.
There might be some history of playoff collapses but that was pre-Mahomes so we're not going to even bring that up.
New England Patriots
FOR
At times this defense has looked like a historically great unit.
They still have Brady and Belichick and that's usually been more than enough.
This team started 8-0.
They still have their first game at home and have shown they can win in Arrowhead in the playoffs.
Betting against the Patriots has historically been a bad call.
AGAINST
They finished 4-4.
This team lost at home to Miami when they really wanted to win.
Brady really doesn't have anyone to throw to.
Brady's numbers from this year are average to below average.
The Chiefs and Texans and Ravens all beat the Patriots.
Houston Texans
FOR
Their QB is Deshaun Watson. In 2016 he lost in the National Championship Game. In 2017 he came back and won the National Championship. Would not surprise me at all if he puts the team on his back.
They beat the Chiefs, Patriots and Titans when it mattered.
They basically used week 17 as a bye and get to play at home in a dome their first game.
AGAINST
Their coaching is suspect.
JJ Watt was injured and even if he comes back is unlikely to be at full strength.
Got blown out by the Ravens.
Doesn't seem to be on same level as the three teams above them.
Buffalo Bills
FOR
They're a tough out.
They played the Ravens close.
They beat the Dolphins twice, which is more than the Patriots can say.
Crazier things have happened.
AGAINST
They're not ready yet.
Winning one game would be a success.
Tennessee Titans
FOR
With Tannehill, this team has been as good as anyone.
Derrick Henry can run through anything.
Vrabel has them playing and believing.
They beat good teams.
AGAINST
Their path is brutal. On the road at New England. On the road at Baltimore. On the road at Kansas City.
At some point, everyone's going to see that he's still Tannehill.
They couldn't beat the Texans in week 15 when they had a chance to win the division.
NFC
San Francisco 49ers
FOR
They have an incredibly strong resume of wins.
They're both battle tested/coming in hot + get a bye to recover.
Kittle is a monster that can take a game over.
Their defense can keep them in any game.
Homefield matters. Won't have to go to Superdome or Lambeau. In fact, won't have to play both Packers and Saints.
AGAINST
They lack playoff experience.
Their QB isn't a top-5 QB.
A lot of their games were close and could have swung either way. Only takes one fluky play to knock a team out of the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers
FOR
Haven't seemed that impressive but still got a bye. If they turn it on more, watch out.
Never had the lead in both Lions games but won both. They find a way to win.
Aaron Rodgers winning his second Super Bowl seems like it should happen one of these years.
No longer coached by Mike McCarthy.
AGAINST
Haven't seemed that impressive.
Never had the lead in both Lions games.
Got blown out by 49ers.
New Orleans Saints
FOR
Have been on the doorstep 3 years in a row.
Playing well on both sides of the ball.
Coaching advantage.
Drew Brees + Michael Thomas is a winning combination.
First opponent is a Minnesota Miracle revenge game.
AGAINST
Calls and breaks seem to go against them.
Philadelphia Eagles
FOR
Nobody believes in them which they rode to a SB win two years ago.
Wentz wants his time to shine.
AGAINST
They've played like dogshit most of the year.
Seattle Seahawks
FOR
Played the most crazy games of the year and won a ton of them.
Russell Hustle and Bustle can pull off crazy stuff.
Beast Mode is apparently a thing again and would be a fun story.
Have a better record than their first opponent.
Know they can beat the 49ers.
AGAINST
Still a tough road to win four games.
Seemed like they lost a bit of their magic.
Minnesota Vikings
FOR
Anything can happen?
If Dalvin Cook is healthy, they've got a chance.
AGAINST
Minnesota Miracle revenge game likely to be one and done.
Tough draw.
Kirk Cousins.
I've technically made 24 cases. 12 will be correct.
Baltimore Ravens
FOR
They've been the best, hottest and most consistent team in the league.
They've won 12 in a row.
They have the 2019 MVP, Lamar Jackson.
They'll have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
They have an electric offense, strong defense and elite special teams too.
Even playing 2nd string, they can crush a wild-card level team.
On paper, they don't really have any weaknesses.
They're the Vegas favorite to win the damn thing for a reason.
They've beat excellent teams this year.
AGAINST
Lamar Jackson is 0-1 in the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson's Ravens are 0-2 vs the Chiefs.
If you're making parallels to last year, this year's Ravens are last year's Chiefs. Young QB takes the league by storm and gets crowned the MVP. A team that had so much success and didn't have to face that much adversity. And last year the MVP came up one defensive stop short of getting to the Super Bowl.
Perhaps they peaked in November?
Kansas City Chiefs
FOR
They were one play away from the Super Bowl with a crappy defense and over the last month, their defense has been a top 5 unit.
They're peaking at the right time, entering the postseason with a 6-game winning streak.
They beat the Ravens and Patriots this year.
They've won in heat, snow and at altitude.
They have the reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes.
Earning the bye and a week to rest + prepare, plus getting a home game is a big boost.
They've seemed like the only team that can handle Lamar Jackson.
Damien Williams has fresh legs.
AGAINST
The offense hasn't put up numbers like they did last year.
The defense has had moments of weakness, at the end of the Titans game and the Colts stampede come to mind.
Although mostly healthy now, the team has battled injuries all year. Their chemistry with each other is probably not at it's peak.
The injury to Juan Thornhill (safety) could prove costly.
There might be some history of playoff collapses but that was pre-Mahomes so we're not going to even bring that up.
New England Patriots
FOR
At times this defense has looked like a historically great unit.
They still have Brady and Belichick and that's usually been more than enough.
This team started 8-0.
They still have their first game at home and have shown they can win in Arrowhead in the playoffs.
Betting against the Patriots has historically been a bad call.
AGAINST
They finished 4-4.
This team lost at home to Miami when they really wanted to win.
Brady really doesn't have anyone to throw to.
Brady's numbers from this year are average to below average.
The Chiefs and Texans and Ravens all beat the Patriots.
Houston Texans
FOR
Their QB is Deshaun Watson. In 2016 he lost in the National Championship Game. In 2017 he came back and won the National Championship. Would not surprise me at all if he puts the team on his back.
They beat the Chiefs, Patriots and Titans when it mattered.
They basically used week 17 as a bye and get to play at home in a dome their first game.
AGAINST
Their coaching is suspect.
JJ Watt was injured and even if he comes back is unlikely to be at full strength.
Got blown out by the Ravens.
Doesn't seem to be on same level as the three teams above them.
Buffalo Bills
FOR
They're a tough out.
They played the Ravens close.
They beat the Dolphins twice, which is more than the Patriots can say.
Crazier things have happened.
AGAINST
They're not ready yet.
Winning one game would be a success.
Tennessee Titans
FOR
With Tannehill, this team has been as good as anyone.
Derrick Henry can run through anything.
Vrabel has them playing and believing.
They beat good teams.
AGAINST
Their path is brutal. On the road at New England. On the road at Baltimore. On the road at Kansas City.
At some point, everyone's going to see that he's still Tannehill.
They couldn't beat the Texans in week 15 when they had a chance to win the division.
NFC
San Francisco 49ers
FOR
They have an incredibly strong resume of wins.
They're both battle tested/coming in hot + get a bye to recover.
Kittle is a monster that can take a game over.
Their defense can keep them in any game.
Homefield matters. Won't have to go to Superdome or Lambeau. In fact, won't have to play both Packers and Saints.
AGAINST
They lack playoff experience.
Their QB isn't a top-5 QB.
A lot of their games were close and could have swung either way. Only takes one fluky play to knock a team out of the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers
FOR
Haven't seemed that impressive but still got a bye. If they turn it on more, watch out.
Never had the lead in both Lions games but won both. They find a way to win.
Aaron Rodgers winning his second Super Bowl seems like it should happen one of these years.
No longer coached by Mike McCarthy.
AGAINST
Haven't seemed that impressive.
Never had the lead in both Lions games.
Got blown out by 49ers.
New Orleans Saints
FOR
Have been on the doorstep 3 years in a row.
Playing well on both sides of the ball.
Coaching advantage.
Drew Brees + Michael Thomas is a winning combination.
First opponent is a Minnesota Miracle revenge game.
AGAINST
Calls and breaks seem to go against them.
Philadelphia Eagles
FOR
Nobody believes in them which they rode to a SB win two years ago.
Wentz wants his time to shine.
AGAINST
They've played like dogshit most of the year.
Seattle Seahawks
FOR
Played the most crazy games of the year and won a ton of them.
Russell Hustle and Bustle can pull off crazy stuff.
Beast Mode is apparently a thing again and would be a fun story.
Have a better record than their first opponent.
Know they can beat the 49ers.
AGAINST
Still a tough road to win four games.
Seemed like they lost a bit of their magic.
Minnesota Vikings
FOR
Anything can happen?
If Dalvin Cook is healthy, they've got a chance.
AGAINST
Minnesota Miracle revenge game likely to be one and done.
Tough draw.
Kirk Cousins.
I've technically made 24 cases. 12 will be correct.
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