Clearing Out My Saved Memes Folder

Here's a low-effort end of the year post for you. I went through my images saved from Reddit folder. Here you go. 

Chiefs WR Room

Ever since Tyreek left, the Chiefs haven't had a WR1. For the last two years, it's been WR by committee. In training camp I thought it felt like we had five WR2s. But that's not the case. 

Here's where the room stands right now, in Week 15 2023:

Rashee Rice is WR1

Justin Watson is WR2

Toney is WR3

MVS is WR4

Skyy Moore is WR5

That's their position on the team as of this moment. But where do those players actually fit on a decent offense?

Rashee Rice should be a WR3. The exciting rookie emerging, learning from 2 established guys.

Justin Watson should be a WR4. He can come up with a big play on 3rd down once or twice a game, but he's not a go-to guy.

Toney should be off the team. I'm not joking.

MVS should be a WR5. He's basically Justin Watson with worse hands. Send him deep to keep them honest, should only be used as a decoy.

Skyy Moore should be inactive. If there was an injury above, sure next man up. Otherwise, healthy scratch.

So there you go. Rice is good enough to see consistent snaps. If your WR2, has a hamstring injury, Rice could fill that role for a few weeks. 

Basically we're nicely filling out the WR3, WR4, and WR5 positions. 

Just have two open slots at the top of the room. No biggie. 

- - -

Look, obviously every fan would want a top 10 receiver on their team. Let's name some guys.

Hill, Jefferson, Kupp, AJ Brown, Amon Ra, Keenan Allen, Diggs, Chase, Deebo, Evans. There's 10 names. 

I'm not even asking for a top 10 guy. 

But an average WR1, someone like Garrett Wilson or Michael Pittman.

And then a WR2 like Tee Higgins or Tyler Lockett.

Two guys would be the difference between getting the bye and not. 

Week 15 Playoff Picture

There are 5 teams with a point differential above 100+. And the defending champions are not one of them. 

If you sort by winning percentage instead, here are the top teams:

So the Cowboys are frauds who can't beat good teams or win on the road. 

Look at the Eagles and Lions point differential. Red flag. Not to mention the Lions playoff history doesn't inspire confidence.

So the actual good teams are:

49ers

Ravens

Dolphins

Bills

Except the Bills are 9th in the AFC. So they're essentially a top-5 team in the NFL but they have work to do to make the playoffs. 

Here's the live look at Super Bowl odds:

So if you believe them, we're headed for a rematch of Super Bowl 47, the Blackout Bowl, featuring 49ers and Ravens.

- - -

There's only 3 weeks left in the regular season. Which means only two more times after today to be thinking about cross-offs and hopefuls. So let's get into it.

AFC

Actually eliminated: Patriots, Jets, Titans

Cross-Offs: Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Steelers

Playoff Teams: Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, AFC South Winner

The next most likely playoff team according to the NYTimes is the Browns, who are on their 4th QB of the year. And it's Joe Flacco. Real football analysis is really hard. So I tend to focus on the quarterback first and foremost and I tend to be right more than I'm wrong on my NFL predictions. So to see this Browns team winning despite the QB room, it shows that sometimes you have to consider more than one position. 

NYT gives the Bills a 71% chance to make the playoffs, which is good, but not as high as you would think for a team that might be the scariest in the league. 

So beyond Ravens/Dolphins/Chiefs, there are 4 AFC spots up for grabs for 6 teams. Here they are in order of NYT percentages:

Browns. Jaguars. Bills. Texans. Colts. Bengals. 

Looking at the schedule, it still looks like Jaguars division to lose. 

Okay, so I just did a quick ESPN Playoff Machine just to see. I see the Broncos winning out over Patriots, Chargers, Raiders. If that happens, the Bills would have to beat the Dolphins, 2-1 does not get Bills in over Broncos. 

So if I have the Broncos lose their last game to the Raiders, and Bills lose to Dolphins, then the Colts grab the 7th seed. 

But then you let the Bills win out and all of a sudden they're the 4th seed and Miami is a wild-card team. 

Then I switched the Ravens losing to the Dolphins in week 17, going along with Ravens losing to the 49ers next week. 

That's all it took to get this:

Chiefs get the bye and Ravens are a wild-card. The work for the Ravens is not done yet.

For now, I'd say yes to Browns, Jags, Bills. Quiet yes to Texans assuming they get Stroud back. Bengals would not surprise me at all.

- - -

NFC

Actually eliminated: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders

Cross-Offs: Bears, Giants, Packers, Falcons, Seahawks

Playoff Teams: 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Bucs, Rams

1 spot left for Vikings, Saints

Vikings schedule is harder. So Saints and Bucs make the playoffs? Wild.

HC Curse?

Monday I post that Dolphins are winning the East and Packers are a wild-card team. And then both go out and lose on MNF, making the whole playoff picture that much murkier. 

Week 14 Mess

Let's start with the Chiefs. They're not just not a very good team right now. 

By point differential they are 6th in the league, by record 7th in the league. But they've lost 3 of their last 4 since returning from Germany. Here's how many points the Chiefs have put up in their last 6 games: 9, 21, 17, 31, 19, 17.

It's penalties, it's drops, it's losing the turnover battle. Poor execution in general. Last week they started losing players on defense to injury, and the WR room is so bad you would think it's been decimated by injuries, but nope, these are the starters. They can hang with anyone, but can also lose to anyone. If they were playing the 49ers right now on a neutral field, I think the line should be 49ers -7.5 or something like that. 

They're going to win the AFC West, but could easily be the 3-seed, even if they win out. 

The silver lining? The teams ahead of them don't inspire playoff confidence. The Ravens simply do not seem that strong and Lamar is 1-3 in the playoffs and has the history of blowing the 1-seed. The Dolphins might have the talent to get to the Super Bowl, but they still have to stay healthy and put it together. I'm still more scared of the Bills. (I would very much like to avoid them in the wild-card round. There are so many dogshit AFC teams, please avoid playing Buffalo again.)

- - -

The playoff picture is a mess. The only way to sort it out? Let's start with some Cross-Offs. 

AFC

Cross-Offs: Patriots, Titans, Jets, Raiders, Chargers

Division Winners: Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, Jaguars

Wild-Card Hopefuls: That leaves 7 teams fighting for 3 wild-card spots. 

And it really is a mess. Here are the teams in order of my judgement of quality:

Bills, Texans, Browns, Bengals, Broncos, Colts, Steelers

The Steelers just shit the bed twice in a row against gimme teams. I know the Texans had a bad game yesterday, but they also beat the Broncos head to head. Bills, Texans, Browns seem likely but Flacco? The Bengals seemed fine without Burrow yesterday, so maybe them. Who knows?

Does any AFC team seem like they can win the Super Bowl?

NFC

Cross-Offs: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders, Giants, Bears

Playoff Teams: 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, NFC South winner

Wild-Card Teams: Packers, Rams

I don't think the Vikings with Jefferson hurt again and Nick Mullens at QB can do it. 

I think the Falcons/Saints/Bucs are fighting for the division spot but not for a wild-card spot. Still holding out hope for the Falcons like an idiot. 

- - -

Here's how Vegas ranks the only 6 teams with less than 10-1 odds:

SF

Baltimore

Miami

3-way tie: Philly, Dallas, KC

Here's my takeaway. The NFC is top heavy. The AFC is wide open. Could be the year with a 5th seed Bills, 7th seed Bengals or 4th seed Chiefs sneak in to the Super Bowl to face the 49ers/Eagles/Cowboys in the Super Bowl.

Work Trip to Cleveland

Top tier pizza at Market Garden Brewery.

Week 13 Clusterfuck

Let's start with the Jags. Entering the 4th quarter, they had the ball, up 7, going against Jake Browning and the Bengals. Hold on for 15 minutes to win the game and they'd be sitting in the #1 seed in the AFC and control their destiny. ESPN's model gives them an 80% chance to win at this point. 

What happens? Bengals get a stop. They score a TD. Jags are driving with a tie game and with less than 6 minutes to play, the franchise QB gets his ankle crushed by his own lineman. The Jags miss a 48-yard field goal at home. And then the Bengals make a 54-yarder and a 48-yarder in OT to win. 

So the Jags lose the game. They don't get to sit in the top spot. And now Lawrence is going to miss time. That's the margin for error in the NFL. Everything can go to shit in one play. 

- - -

Meanwhile the team with the best odds to win the Super Bowl (49ers) is not the team with the best record (Eagles). SF is clearly the best team right now and it doesn't seem particularly close. And yet, they're only good when all their players are healthy. So in light of how many injuries we've seen around the league this year, to the 49ers this year, and to Purdy last year in the playoffs, I wouldn't exactly say that it's a lock for SF to stay healthy through February. 

- - -

And yes the Chiefs blew it on Sunday night. Their next game is hosting the Bills who are always scary. But after that, its the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals without Burrow, and Chargers who will be eliminated. So 12-5 is in play even with a loss to the Bills this week. But uh, if you want the #1 seed, I recommend winning out, getting to 13-4. 

The playoff picture is a mess. I'm skipping cross-offs until next week. Hopefully this week will help sort things out. 

Pictures from Vegas

Sportsbook DOs and DONTs

There's really no better feeling than sitting in a sportsbook eating buffalo wings and going 7 for 7 on your bets. You feel like you really know ball. 

So while it's fresh, I wanted to make my notes to future Dave, what lessons I've learned. 

DOs and DON'Ts

DO focus on the quarterbacks

I made money going against Tim Boyle and Joe Flacco. 

DO some fantasy bets

I pay more attention to fantasy throughout the year than anything, so I had a pretty good feeling that Stroud would throw for yards and that Tyreek would get 100 yards and a score. 

DON'T try to be a hero with too many +400 bets

The big moneyline parlay ticket was fun, but in general, combining too many things looking for a home run ticket is a waste of money. 

DO check the weather

The Cards/Steelers under was helped by a rainstorm. 

DON'T be afraid to adjust the line a little

I'd rather take a team minus -2.5 than -3, or +7.5 than +6.5. The vig doesn't change that much. I had good luck with it. 

DO go against the worst teams

This seems obvious. But this doesn't mean take the best teams. The Eagles, Chiefs and Jaguars all lost this weekend. The best teams are not locks. But going against the worst teams are a good way to make money.

DON'T parlay spread bets

I learned this the hard way two months ago. There's too many times where teams make decisions based on winning the game and don't care about the spread. (Often a heavy favorite (like -11.5) up 17 will give up a late touchdown because they don't care. This weekend the Broncos were a field goal away from covering and in field goal range, but they didn't take it because they trailed by 5.)

DON'T try to be a hero. again.

I thought my 3-team moneyline parlays looked good. Both tickets went 2-1 which is worthless. It would have been better to have 2-team parlays. Winning tickets is fun. In the moment, you don't really care if it's a -140 or a +130. It's just fun to have winning tickets.

Best Sportsbook Day Ever

I ended up making lots of bets. 17 in the end. Let's break it down. 

1st Wave

I had marked some games all week. As soon as I got to Vegas, I was ready to make these:

-110 Falcons -2

-110 Chiefs -6

-139 Cardinals +7.5

-105 Eagles +3

-117 Stroud over 269 passing yards

+158 Dolphins/Bucs/Chiefs to win

The Cardinals line was either 5.5 or 6.5, so I paid a little extra vig to slide that number up to 7.5. I didn't think the Steelers could win by more than a touchdown.

2nd Wave

I sat around watching Georgia/Alabama and trying to research if I should bet anything on the Michigan/Iowa or the Florida State game. The two bets I was going to make: Under 30 in Michigan/Iowa and Florida State -2.5. I talked myself out of the first one because I didn't think I knew enough, and the 2nd one I went as far as hitting confirm bet...but it told me the line shifted to FSU -3.5. I took that as a sign that I shouldn't do it. Both would have won. 

But I added some more NFL action. Four $10 parlay bets. 

+230 Dolphins win, Tyreek TD, Tyreek 100 yards

+225 Purdy 2+ pass TDs, Aiyuk TD

+490 Kyler TD, Frymouth over 34 receiving yards

+1100 Chiefs -6, Over 43, Rice TD, Over 43 Rice yards, 2+ Mahomes pass TDs

The Kyler/Frymouth was one that I found on Twitter and both seemed reasonable. And then I wanted something fun to watch for in the Chiefs game so I did the last one.

3rd Wave

Then I went to talk bets with Aunt Paula. We both liked the Colts so talking to her confirmed that one for me. We talked about how we liked the Texans offense this year, so she talked me into that one. Instead of taking them at -3, I moved it to -2.5. I never pay attention to unders, but Paula brought up a few over/unders and I thought that Cards/Steelers would be a 16-10 game so under 41 sounded good. And then we started talking about Flacco, and I was like, you know I gotta bet against Flacco. The Rams line was -3.5 and I actually bumped it up to -6.5. 

-133 Texans -2.5 

-110 Colts PK

-110 Under 41 in Cardinals/Steelers

+114 Rams -6.5 

+232 Steelers, Rams, Texans to win

+2972 Falcons, Texans, Colts, Chargers, Dolphins, Bucs, Rams, Chiefs to win

She liked the Steelers quite a bit to win. I knew I already had Cardinals +7.5. And I kinda thought Pittsburgh was going to win by 3...so I thought either as a hedge or perhaps a middle, that I could do the Steelers moneyline in a parlay with Rams and Texans. 

And then just for fun, the very last bet of Saturday night, I put the 8 teams that I felt the best about winning together. $20 bet to win $594, collect $614. 

- - - 

Okay, so I show up at the sportsbook, 10am Vegas time. 

Early Games

I write all my bets for the early games, ignoring the longshots. 

So I had a paper with:

Falcons -2

Colts PK

Cardinals +7.5

Stroud 269 pass yards

Cards/Steelers under

Texans -2.5

I'm watching and things are going pretty well. Stroud has 149 passing yards in the 1st quarter. Cardinals are winning but it's still low scoring. Texans are winning big. Falcons were actually up 2, right on the number, and the Colts were trailing by 7, but still in it. So at halftime, I think I was on pace for 4-1-1. 

And then my +230 Dolphins bet comes through. Tyreek has his yards and TD and the Dolphins are up 20. So I go ahead and write that one on my paper. 

And then there are moments where things turn for the worse.

Stroud gets to 260 pass yards and then gets hurt. Davis Mills is in at QB. 

Titans who were down 6, score a TD with 5 minutes left.

The Broncos are driving down the field to win. 

The Jets keep getting the ball back down only 5. 

Things are dicey. 

And then Stroud comes back in and throws a 14-yard pass. Cashing my over.

The Titans miss the XP and we're going to overtime.

The Broncos throw an interception and they lose by 5. Cashing my Texans bet.

The Falcons defense hangs on. Cashes. 

The Colts go on to win in OT. Cash.

And then the Cardinals win but don't go over. Double cash.

I look down at my paper from the early game. 7 bets. 7 winners. 

Unbelievable. I'm sending money bag emojis to my wife. By my rough calculations those 7 bets have already won my entire budget back. Any wins from here on out are pure profit. 

And then I check on the longshots. 

So the Steelers moneyline bet is dead. And the Kyler/Frymouth bet didn't hit. So I'm really 7-2 at this point. And then I look at my ridiculous 8-leg parlay. Falcons, Colts, Texans, Chargers, Dolphins all won. The $600 bet only needs Bucs, Rams and Chiefs to win. Ummmm...

Late Games

Here's what I write down for the late games. 

Eagles +3

Rams -6.5

Purdy 2tds, Aiuyk td

Bucs/Rams/Chiefs (remaining on the 8-leg)

Bucs/Chiefs (remaining on the 3-leg)

I mean, I'm watching all of them, but I'm really watching the Bucs and Rams. If they can win, I'm a Chiefs win away from collecting $1000 today. 

The Eagles bet goes south in the 2nd quarter, but the Purdy bet hits. That one was +225 so that's all good with me. 

And long story short, the Rams cover the -6.5 and the Bucs beat the Panthers too. 

So in the late window: 2 winners, 1 loser, but the moneyline parlays are still alive. 

I'm 9-3. I've got two Chiefs bets yet to come. But most importantly, I'm a Chiefs win away from cashing both of these:

On the board, the Chiefs are a -250 moneyline to win before kickoff. And I'm holding a $40 +158 ticket and a $20 +2972 ticket for them to win. 

I've never been in this situation. I make the call to hedge. 

4th Wave

The Packers are a +200 moneyline. I still had $40 cash in my pocket. I figure if I cash those two tickets above, I won't sweat a $40 loss. But if the Packers win and ruin both tickets, then I'll at least collect $120 and profit $80. 

Sunday Night Football

I've had the best gambling day ever at this point. 9-3 including two bets over +200. 

And now I get to watch my team. They're a 6-point favorite but all I need them to do is win and I'll be collecting an additional $717. 

- - -

Everything to this point has been really fun to type out. 

Woof. 

The first half was ugly. The Chiefs score a td in the 3rd quarter but can't get the two-point conversion and remain trailing by 2, 12-14. It's a really awful number to be trailing by, as any Packers TD makes it a two-possession game. Packers make it 21-12 by converting a ridiculous 4th down deep pass. Chiefs answer back 19-21. With 6 minutes left, GB gets a field goal. They're up 24-19. Chiefs have the ball. They can drive down the field and score with little time left. 

I'm shouting to run the ball, get some yards, bleed some clock. 

Pass.

Pass.

Pass. Intercepted. 

That's the ball game. 

There was plenty of game to play out, but that was it. 

Chiefs lose. My two Chiefs bets lose. And it ruins both parlay tickets. No $717 to collect. This game brought me to 9-7. 

Except that I did hedge. 

So I'm actually 10-7. 

I collected $120 at the Bellagio.

I collected $367 at Paris. 

So that's $487 in my pocket after betting $360. A sportsbook profit of $127 on a $360 budget. 

If the Chiefs had pulled it out, I would have collected $0 at Bellagio but $1084 at Paris. For a profit of $724 on a $360 budget. Would have tripled my stack. 

- - -

Of course, there's the alternate scenario where I didn't hedge. I would have been 9-7. Takeaway that last $120 win and my profit would have only been $7 for going 9-7. 

- - -

What can you say? It was my own Super Bowl Champion team that ruined a $1000 day. What could have been. But in the end, it's hard to come out even a little ahead. So to come out over $100 ahead betting $10 and $20 at a time, a 35% profit, that's pretty great. 

And the only reason I was in the position to make the hedge, was that those first 7 legs came through. I lost $60 on those two big moneyline tickets, but the hedge profited $80. So all in all, I still made money on those three tickets combined. If the Colts hadn't won in OT (or any of the other first seven) I couldn't have hedged and it would have been a break even day. 

If you go back and look, I was 3-3 in the first wave.

I was 2-2 on the 2nd wave going for longshots.

Ignoring the big parlay for a second, I went 4-1 in the third wave after talking to Paula. 

And then the big parlay + the hedge, was how I made all my profit. So the third wave is really where I made my money.

Here's my follow-up post with lessons learned.