Bills-Chiefs: AFC Championship Recap

Let's talk about the actual game. 

Bills open the game looking real nervous, Allen almost has two picks, 3 and out.

Then Chiefs go 90 yards on 9 plays, without even seeing 3rd down. Kareem Hunt TD and it's a perfect start for the Chiefs. 

Bills answer back, kicking a field goal on 4th and 5. 

Chiefs drive again but fumble at the Bills 23. 

Bills overcome a 2nd and 20 to score a TD, take the lead 10-7. First lead change. 

Ensuing drive, Chiefs have a 4th and 1 on their own 39. Bad options include punting away, not getting it and setting up Bills in great position. But Chiefs convert the first 4th down of the game. Leads to another TD. Second lead change, Chiefs up 14-10. 

Bills answer with a 3 and out, their second of the game. They had 4th and 10 from the Bills 30. Remigio returns it to the Bills 34. 45 yard punt, 41 yard return, 4 yard net. 

Chiefs score a TD and extend their lead to 21-10. They started the drive with 3:39 on the clock. They scored with 1:55 left. I would have loved to see the Chiefs burn more clock. (Incidentally this was the sequence with the "controversial" pass that was a simultaneous catch plus the ball hit the ground. How it was ruled actually helps the Bills, preserving more clock.)

Bills come out and have their best drive. 7 plays, 73 yards for the TD, in 1:32, didn't see a 3rd down. It's 16-21, pending the conversion. The PAT is good, but there's a penalty. Huge conversion attempt. Chiefs stuff the QB run, and the improvised lateral (that if not caught, could have been a pick-2.) 

Chiefs take a 21-16 lead into the half. 

Could have been 17-10 if the Chiefs slow played and settled for a field goal right before the half. 

Could have been 21-10 if that pass got overturned and they got a TD right before the half. 

Could have been 21-18 if the Bills convert 2pts from the 1. 

Could have been 21-17 if the Bills say we're not taking points off the board. 

Halftime.

Chiefs start with the ball and the Bills defense forces the first punt. 

Then the Bills go on a 12-play 80-yard TD drive. Two 4th down conversions, including an incredible run by Cook on 4th and goal. Super impressive play. Third lead change. The TD makes it 22-21, pending the point after. At this point there are 18 minutes left. All the charts say go for two. But 18 minutes in a Chiefs-Bills game is an eternity. And there is a key advantage of going up two...another 7 points and you're up 9, a comfortable two-score margin. The key advantage of going up three is assuming that the next score is a Chiefs FG and you'll be tied, not losing. I also don't love chasing 4th down conversions when you don't have to. But anyways. they go for two again, and they don't get it. It would be 24-21 if the Bills had just kicked both PATs but I'm sure that won't matter. 

Bills at this point are 2 for 2 on 4th down, 0 for 2 on 2pt conversions.

The Chiefs 2nd drive of the 2nd half is a 3 and out, their first. 

KC in the first half: 

TD

long drive then fumble

TD

TD

KC to open the second half:

Punt

Punt

As a Chiefs fan, you're watching the Bills with the lead and the ball, and it appears that the Bills defense has made some halftime adjustments. It doesn't look or feel GREAT. 

Bills driving and they convert another 4th down. Now 3 for 3 on 4th down. Literally, 4 plays later it's 4th down again. The Bills go for it again and don't get it. Since it's a turnover the replay official looked at it and confirmed the call, so at least they did their due diligence and got it right. 

Anyways, moving on...

Okay, fine, I'll talk about the biggest play of the game. It was 4th and 1. The ref on the far side was going to spot that he got 1 yard. The ref on the near side was going to spot that he got 2/3 of a yard. I heard one NFL official say that he thought the Bills got the first down by a 1/3 of a football. A football is 11 inches. 

We're talking about a very narrow window. Two refs saw it differently and the Bills got a bad spot and the Chiefs got a good spot. 

It happens. 

Circa 2015-2017, people referred to Foxboro as the place where the headsets don't work. To go in their house, you had to outplay the Pats, the elements, and their homefield advantage. 

What have we been hearing about the Chiefs all season? They get all the calls, right? So when you need 36 inches on a play, you might want to get more than 40, because someone might see it as only 30. 

Anyways, moving on.

It's at this point that I got a vision of the future. The Chiefs had the ball down 21-22 and I saw that it was going to be 29-29. 

5 plays, 59 yards, no 3rd downs. Mahomes runs it in again. Chiefs go for two. Get it. Lead 29-22. Fourth lead change.

A couple things. 

1. What I was afraid of: when the Bills were up 22-21, I was worried they would score and go for two, going up 30-21. Whenever Andy Reid scores to go up 7, he always kicks the PAT and I always want him to go for two to make it nine. 

2. If the Bills had just converted their PATs in the first place they would have been up 24-21. The Chiefs don't go for two in this situation, so it should have been 28-24, a 4-point Chiefs lead. Instead, it's 29-22, a 7-point lead. 

The Bills need a touchdown and they get one. They convert another 4th and goal. They're now 4 out of 5 on 4th down. And the one they didn't get, they maybe sorta should have gotten. 

29-29. Tie game. 

Chiefs get down to the 10 with passes to Hunt, Kelce and Worthy. But can't cash in to the end zone. Here's the shot when Butker makes the field goal:

32-29. 

The Bills take over. They could make the last score. TD to win. FG to go to OT. Josh Allen Legacy Drive. 

3rd and 10, sick WR screen, caught 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Sets up 4th and 5. 

Take a look at the left side of this frame. That's Dalton Kincaid, #86 running a deep slant. He just broke past the linebackers and there is nobody back there. He's in the clear. 

This is the same camera that just zoomed out with the pass in the air just a few frames later, 

So this second frame shows just how open Kincaid is.

Go back to the first frame. Kincaid is on the 39 when Allen releases the ball. Kincaid makes it as far as the 34 before he has to turn around come back to the ball. The ball lands at the 36. 

This angle shows how close Kincaid comes to catching it. He makes a great effort.

If the ball is thrown 1-5 yards farther, Kincaid not only has an easy catch, he probably gets it inside the red zone. 

But this isn't on Allen either. He makes a heck of play and salvages an incredible throw. Spags just surprised with the corner blitz and made it impossible to put enough into the throw. 

That's coaching.

Of course, the Chiefs still had to close the game out with two first downs. This has been an area of struggle over the last two years, not always able to clinch the game on offense. 

But Andy had some special plays locked and loaded. 

Victory formation. Kneel down. Kneel down. 

- - -

Last year the Bills lost the Chiefs in the playoffs with a field goal missed wide right. 

This time, the Bills have now lost FOUR IN A ROW to the Chiefs in the playoffs. 

“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain allegedly

- - -

As I wrote before the game, I do feel bad for Buffalo fans. Loyal, passionate fans deserve to be rewarded with joy at some point. In so many ways, I identify with them. 

- - -

Go back and look at the first image I posted. 

It was the final score of the game. Chiefs +3 at 3:33 remaining. To advance for a shot at a Threepeat.™

Chiefs to Super Bowl LIX

Look, I thought it was neat when the Chiefs made the AFC Championship in both 2018 and 2019. There were so many "wow this is incredible but we know it's unsustainable, but that's so cool" stats. And then the Chiefs have just...sustained them?

Like I made this same post last year, assuming that given how parity is the norm, injuries are unpredictable, it's so damn hard to repeat, etc. that Mahomes & Co. can't just keep doing this. As any other fan would tell you: "They can't keep getting away with it!" And instead of having a down year, they just continue to roll, building this resume:

Super Bowl Teams (AFC, NFC) Since 2019:

2019: Chiefs, 49ers

2020: Chiefs, Bucs

2021: Bengals, Rams

2022: Chiefs, Eagles

2023: Chiefs, 49ers

2024: Chiefs, Eagles

(The 2018 and 2021 Chiefs lost the AFC Championship game in overtime.)

- - -

This chart is going to be outdated in 2 weeks:

LIX brings the Chiefs to 7 appearances. It brings Mahomes to 5 appearances. 

Chiefs are 6th out of 32 NFL teams in SB appearances. 

Mahomes by himself is tied for 7th out of 32 NFL teams. 

Four teams have 0 SB appearances. We don't have to name names. 

- - -

Here's the list of QBs with more Super Bowl appearances than Patrick Mahomes:

Tom Brady

Here's the list of QBs with more playoff wins than Patrick Mahomes:

Tom Brady

- - -

Joe Montana was the Gold Standard unquestioned top quarterback of the 20th century. 

In 2010, Joe Montana was the highest ranked QB on the list of All-Time Greatest Players. 

At the age of 29, Patrick Mahomes has surpassed Joe Montana in both Super Bowl appearances and playoff wins. 

- - -

Reid is up to 28 playoff wins with one more playoff game this year.

Belichick is out of the NFL with 31. 

Reid already has the record for most seasons making the playoffs. 

- - -

Just last week, I looked at a post by a Bills fan that intentionally omitted 4 of Mahomes playoff wins and one of Allen's losses by starting the timeframe at 2020...but in that post, it showed that 4 QBs in the AFC were 16-0 against any other QB. 

So let's see the Super Bowl records of this Big 4:

Mahomes: 3-1, with one pending

Burrow: 0-1

Allen: n/a

Lamar: n/a

This is the Big 4. Mahomes with 5 SB appearances, and the other 3 have one combined.

- - -

There's all this talk about the three-peat and rightfully so... but it's kind of funny that Mahomes/Kelce/Reid/Jones/Spags already have 3 rings. They're going for their 4th. 

- - -

Super Bowl LIV changed my life. 

Super Bowl LIX would be history.  

Mahomes: 7 for 7 AFC Championships + Chiefs-Bills 4th Playoff Game

This was my reaction to the last Chiefs playoff game in the pre-Mahomes era:

No insight, no thoughts, not even a post title. Just utter defeat. 

At this point the Chiefs were 1-10 in the playoffs from 1994–2017, their one win being a Wild-Card win over the Texans. 

That stretch included 5 appearances in the Divisional Round, 4 from byes. All 5 ended in defeats. 

When the 2018 NFL Season kicked off, I never knew what it was like to watch the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. 

Since then, the Chiefs have NEVER not been there. 

- - -

I made this post about AFC Championship QBs in November 2018. 

Let's update the list through January 2025:

Brady: 13 (plus 1 in NFC)

Mahomes: 7

Manning: 5

Roethlisberger: 5

Flacco: 3

Sanchez: 2

Burrow: 2

Allen: 2

Stewart: 1

Gannon: 1

McNair: 1

Plummer: 1

Rivers: 1

Luck: 1

Bortles: 1

Tannehill: 1

Lamar: 1

Peyton Manning played 17 seasons, all in the AFC. He made the AFC title games 5 times, never back to back. 

So going 7 for 7 is insane.

The rest of the AFC "Big 4" has 5 combined. 

- - -

There's really only one play to talk about in the Chiefs divisional win over the Texans.

The ball was released from Mahomes hand .13 seconds ago. His left hand will hit the ground in .1 second bracing for impact. A quarter of a second between getting sacked and getting this ball off. 

Just getting this ball off for a completion is a wildly impressive play. This goes for a touchdown. 

But it's not just about the play itself. It's about the context.

It's 3rd and goal. The Chiefs have a one-point lead. With under 12 minutes to play. If he takes the sack, the Chiefs kick a field goal and have to protect a 4-point lead in the final minutes. If he throws an interception, the Texans take over down 1 point. The game can absolutely turn on this play. There are three Texans defenders in the end zone, within a few yards of Kelce. If this throw is off-target, it could lose the game for Kansas City. 

That's the context that makes this play so incredible. 

- - -

As a whole, I respect Bills Mafia so much. They stuck by their team when they weren't good, are as passionate as anybody, and deserve to see a Championship in their city. This fact is inarguable: A Bills Championship would mean more to them than any of the other teams still alive. 

As a fan of sports in general, it would be cool to see. 

But I'm a Chiefs fan who grew up in Kansas City. I never thought this day would come. To actually be in the middle of a Chiefs dynasty is insane. 

To want more rings and trophies is without question, greedy. 

Here's where I've landed. 

I wrote after Super Bowl LVIII: "I am never allowed to complain about anything in sports for the rest of my life."

I stand by that. 

If it was up to me to decide the winners, it would be very selfish of me to pick the Chiefs to win yet again, when it would mean so much to Bills fans. 

But it's not up to me. 

So on Sunday I'll be rooting for my team, and if the Chiefs win a historic three-peat, then I'll be here to celebrate that too.

The Big 4 AFC Quarterbacks

So this post was made by a Bills fan.

First thing I'll point out is carefully choosing the time frame. 

Actual Playoff Record

Josh Allen: 7-5

Mahomes: 16-3

In the post, it looks like Allen is only 5 wins behind Mahomes, when he's 9. But whatever. 

What I did find interesting is that Mahomes/Allen/Burrow/Lamar are 16-0 in AFC playoff games vs anyone else since 2020. Tough time to be Herbert or Stroud or Nix or anyone else in the AFC trying to break into the club.

So Close

 

Ravens Drop the Ball Again

I don't build narratives based on feelings.

I build them on cold, hard facts. 

Baltimore Ravens Playoff History with Lamar Jackson

2018: Loss in Wild-Card Round to Chargers

2019: Loss in Divisional Round to Titans (choked as 1-seed)

2020: Win in Wild-Card Round over Titans, Loss in Divisional Round to Bills (17-3)

2021: Missed playoffs, finished last in division

2022: Loss in Wild-Card Round to Bengals (Lamar missed game to injury)

2023: Win in Divisional Round over Texans, Loss in AFC Championship to Chiefs in Baltimore

2024: Win in Wild-Card Round over Steelers, Loss in Divisional Round to Bills

So Lamar has played 7 seasons. 

He's made the AFC Championship game one time. 

He's also missed the playoffs twice, once to injury, once to finishing last. 

He's got a 3-6 record in the playoffs. 

Let's go deeper. 

Playoff Wins for Lamar: Titans, Texans, Steelers

Playoff Losses for Lamar: Chargers, Titans, Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Bills

Against the trio of Bills/Bengals/Chiefs, Lamar is 0-4. 

He did drive down the field and make a pass that should have been caught to tie the game. Mark Androps didn't reel it in. 

A few points. 

1. The Ravens scored their TD with 1:33 left. The two-point conversion attempt was going to TIE, not take the lead. 

2. 1:33 was absolutely enough time for the Bills to get into field goal range. Plain and simple, the Ravens scored too early. 

3. The Ravens went for 2 with over 16 minutes left in the game and didn't convert. If they had gone for one there, or converted, they wouldn't have needed to go for 2 at the end of the game. 

4. The Lamar interception and fumble in the first half led to a 11-point halftime deficit. 

5. This is on the play-calling as much as it is Lamar, but both two-point conversions that failed were pass attempts. Maybe give Henry a chance to pick up two yards instead of relying on sliding catches in the snow.

Seems like Lamar will get his 3rd NFL MVP this month, passing Mahomes. 

Mahomes only has two regular season MVPs and 3 Super Bowl MVPs. Damn. Sucks. 

(2.11.25 EDIT: Lamar did not get his 3rd NFL MVP.) 

The Ravens season started with an incomplete pass to a TE on a two-point conversion attempt that would have tied the game. 

The Ravens season ended with an incomplete pass to a TE on a two-point conversion attempt that would have tied the game. 

“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain allegedly

- - -

- - -

Hey, remember this guy? The Ravens fan who assaulted other fans? 

The fans he assaulted, were Commanders fans. Nice bit of karma there.

- - -

What was the thing that Likely said after the Chiefs beat the Ravens in Week 1?

Ah there it is. 

Which was the worst game the Ravens played all season? 

Was it the Week 1 loss to the Chiefs or the Week 2 loss to the Raiders or the Week 8 loss to the Browns or the Week 11 loss to the Steelers or the Week 13 loss to the Eagles or the Divisional loss to the Bills? 

Honestly, it's hard to compare all of these losses at once. Maybe instead of wishing the Chiefs luck in the postseason, the Ravens should have won a few more games and could have faced a team like the Texans instead of the Bills. 

Besides, according to NFL fans everywhere, the Chiefs are lucky enough. 

New Era of NFL Playoff Win Droughts

Hop in a time machine to the 2015 NFL Season. This was the reality. 

There were 5 teams with 20+ year playoff win droughts. 

Bengals, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Bills.  

These were the dregs of the league. 

Since then, they've all won a playoff game. 

Browns: 1

Lions: 2

Bengals: 5

Bills: 5

Chiefs: 16

Some more than others. 

But now there's a new era of droughts. Look at the chart above from 2000-2009. 

Three teams have yet to win a playoff game: Dolphins, Raiders, Commanders.

It's now been 24 years for the Dolphins, 22 for the Raiders, 19 for the Commanders. 

After that, it's been 14 years for the Jets and Bears. 

Those are the five teams with a 10+ year drought. 

When that chart above was made, the Jets and Bears were on the right side of history. But time marches on. 

Not only are the Dolphins, Raiders and Commanders holding on to winless droughts, but they also carry the weight of 3-game, 5-game, 6-game playoff losing streaks. 

For the Dolphins and Raiders, not much I can say. 

But the Commanders have a chance to break this drought this weekend. Eyeball emoji eyeball emoji.

NFL Playoff Preview

First I have to just look at things from a Chiefs point of view for a bit, bear with me. 

We actually have to rewind to last week. 

This Bengals fan went on and on about the Chiefs and made quite a stir:

1. Without the very last post, it does not read like a bit. It reads like a butthurt Bengals fan. 

2. I don't care about any of this. What I do care about is that the logo and name seemed familiar. 

I went searching and I found this post, that I've referenced many times:

The same style logo, the same name, it's all so weird. So I poked around. These guys are BROTHERS. Joe is a Bengals fan, Glenn is a Bills fan. They both run websites for their teams. And Mahomes and the Chiefs are ruining both of their lives. 

It's so weird to me, because I identify with Bills fans. For decades I was a fan of the cursed team that couldn't win a single playoff game, pain and suffering were synonymous with playoff football and I kept coming back for more. 

SO I GET IT. 

I'm just ALSO going to laugh about it and toast my glass to my team and how they are now are destroyers of worlds. 

- - - 

Okay, now we're ready to look at the Chiefs playoff run. And how beautiful it is. 

It seems obvious that the Bills and Ravens will win their home playoff games this week. And then their reward is a grudgematch in Buffalo. Then the winner has to go to Arrowhead. Woof. 

There is mathematically no way for the Bills-Ravens game to be the AFC Championship. That guarantees that either Lamar or Allen gets to be labeled a playoff fraud for yet another year. Glorious. 

Assuming the Bills/Ravens win this week, the Chiefs will be hosting the winner of Texans/Chargers. Both are warm weather teams coming to play outside in Arctic Arrowhead against a very healthy and rested Chiefs team. Didn't work out very well for the Dolphins last year. 

If by chance, the Bills or Ravens lose this week, that's even better. Getting the Broncos or Steelers after an emotional win.

So we're penciling in the Chiefs for the AFC Championship in Arrowhead. Will it be the Bills or Ravens? I find it hard to believe that Playoff Lamar is going to go into cold Buffalo and win, but we'll see. 

Seems like the Bills will be coming back for a KC rematch which should be a good game. KC will be favored but not by that much. 

The path for Bills/Ravens to make it to the Super Bowl involves winning three in a row, which is a tall order. 

That #1 seed is just so valuable. 

- - -

In the NFC, there are a lot of questions. 

Is Jordan Love healthy? Is Jalen Hurts healthy?

Campbell told KOC that he'd see them in two weeks, but I'm not convinced the Bucs, Eagles and Vikings all win their games this weekend to make that possible. 

The Commanders have a knack for winning games impossibly late. Does that mean that will continue in the playoffs or does that mean they're ready to get exposed?

Neither the Bucs of Commanders really belong in the final 4 NFC teams but that's what we're getting.

Seems very likely we could be getting an All NFC North NFC Championship.

Anything can happen, and the defensive injuries are still a concern, but that #1 seed is so valuable. Gotta like the Lions with homefield advantage. 

- - -

Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl is a great storyline for the country and for Hoagie Central. Let's cross our fingers. 

The Top Ten of 2024

Another great year with a ton of travel and exciting accomplishments. It feels like I say that every year, but I guess that's a good thing.

Honorable Mentions:

My Deep Dive into Playoff Overtime Rules

Sportsbook in Vegas

10. Lions Playoff Coverage from Mark and Me, Twice

Who knew Detroit was even eligible to win playoff games?

9. Mark Fever 2024

Mark and I met up in STL for our best owner's meeting yet. 

8. Weekly NFL Column

I said I wasn't going to do this but I did it anyways. 

7. A Masterful Super Bowl 59 Prediction

This hasn't been proven wrong yet!

6. Five Years Ago

To really appreciate the Chiefs success, you have to understand what it was like before Mahomes.

5. Niraj Fever in San Diego

An incredible guy's weekend trip, one of the best!

4. A White Whale Update

I made new music that was creatively fulfilling. Fun!

3. At Peace

A very satisfying point to reach in my life.

2. The Chiefs Win Back-to-Back Super Bowls

18 posts documenting something I never even dreamed of.

but what could be better than that?

The Number One thing from this year. 

Best Movies I Saw in 2024

Time for my annual movie-watching roundup. 

I watched 100 movies this year.

47 I had seen before. 

53 I watched for the first time.

I intentionally tried to rewatch some of my favorite movies, leading the ratio being different than previous years.

Instead of linking to my reviews, I'm just including screenshots directly.

Top 5 Movies That Came Out in 2024

Honorable Mention to Trap, Monkey Man, and Argylle, which I liked even though everyone else hated it.

5. Deadpool & Wolverine

3. Hit Man (it says 2023 because it premiered at a festival, but it didn't get released until 2024)

3. Carry-On

2. Wolfs

1. The Fall Guy

Top 10 Movies I Saw in 2024

Honorable mention to Dumb and Dumber, Now You See Me, Lucky Number Slevin, Talladega Nights and Deadpool 2. 

10. 12 Angry Men

9. The Manchurian Candidate (2004)

8. Wolfs

(see above)

7. The Fall Guy

(see above)

6. BlackBerry 

5. Ocean's Eleven

(This is my review from a 2022 rewatch, but I did rewatch it in 2024.)

4. The Dark Knight

3. Anchorman

2. The Truman Show

1. Interstellar

Most Watched TV Programs of All Time

New Adventures of Old Christine did not make the cut.

So of the top two most watched TV shows, one was an American hero reaching the pinnacle of human achievement, and the other was some dude named Armstrong walking on a rock.

Week 15: Injured

Let's check in on the injury report:

Injury Report: 

Mahomes, Patrick. (QUESTIONABLE)

Lions, Detroit. (OUT)

- - -

AFC

In: Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Broncos, Chargers

Likely In: none

Up In The Air: none

Likely Out: none

Crossed Off: Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Colts

NFC

In: Lions, Commanders, Eagles, Vikings, Packers

Likely In: Rams, Bucs

Up In The Air: Seahawks

Likely Out: Falcons

Crossed Off: Giants, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys, Bears, 49ers, Cardinals

- - -

Concerns for Contenders:

Chiefs: Offense still not clicking yet and Mahomes ankle

Eagles: Can everyone just get along?

Bills: Defense and can they overcome playoff ineptitude

Lions: Injuries. Defense is decimated. 

Vikings: Is Darnold really going to go to the Super Bowl?

Packers: The path as a wild-card team

Steelers: Can TJ Watt and Pickens be healthy? Can they win the division?

Ravens: Can they trick Lamar into thinking the regular season lasts 22 games?

Eagles and Packers concerns seem the mildest. At this point either one seems like a good bet for the Super Bowl considering the Lions injuries. 

In the AFC, who knows what we're going to get? Josh Allen is the MVP but his defense is having trouble. I'm not betting against KC. 

DVOA says the Ravens are the best. I could maybe believe in them if they had the 1 seed, but they're not going to have it. 

Winningest NFL Coaches

Bill Belichick appears to be done coaching in the NFL. This opens the door for Andy Reid. 

Regular Season Only

Andy is averaging around 13 regular season wins a year. On pace to pass Belichick in 2027. Would take 5 more seasons at that clip to pass Shula. Reid is currently 66. 

Playoffs Only

Reid is 5 behind Belichick. Reid has added 14 wins in the last 5 years, minimum of 2 every year. Hard to count on playoff wins, but technically on pace to pass Belichick in 2026 or 2027.

Regular Season + Playoff Wins Combined

1. Don Shula, 347 wins
2. Bill Belichick, 333 wins

3. George Halas, 324 wins

4. Andy Reid, 296 wins

Averaging 15 combined wins a year, Reid is on track to become number one in 2028.

24 best memes of 2024

non-paywalled link

I figured out Super Bowl 59

Ten years ago, I had perhaps my best prediction ever. 

Two weeks before the Malcom Butler goalline interception in the Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl, I wrote this.

I've done it again. I've seen the future. I know how Super Bowl 59 will unfold.

- - - 

This season has been dominated by two teams of destiny, one in each conference. Two 12-1 teams on the verge of clinching the first round bye and home field advantage, who couldn't be different in how they're winning.

The Kansas City Chiefs are winning ugly and close. After two straight years of winning the Super Bowl, it's almost as if the NFL script writers got bored and desperate. Instead of just having the Chiefs win normal games, someone decided it would be more interesting if every week the Chiefs found a new way to win on a last second play, most of which might happen every couple of years or so in the entire league. 

The Likely toe on the game-tying TD

Getting pass interference on 4th and 16

Overtime vs Tampa

Blocked field goal to win

Botched snap by Raiders

Doink and in vs Chargers

Some call it Tayvoodoo. Some call it black magic or dark magic. Some say that the Chiefs have sold their soul to the Devil. 

I don't care what you call it. But you'd be a fool to ignore it at this point. 

On the other hand, you have the Detroit Lions. They are winning pretty and big. Point differential of +183 through 13 games, best in the league. Next closest is Buffalo at +129. (The Chiefs are down at +56. Which is third in the AFC West behind two teams with only 8 wins.)

Detroit is a breakthrough. Aesthetically pleasing and with the best motivational coach in the league, aggressive and tough. They are looking to go to the Super Bowl for the first time. And they're doing it in style. 

These two teams are destined to meet in the Super Bowl this year. And where is it being held? No other city than New Orleans, the epicenter of voodoo magic and the dark arts.

Here's how it will unfold:

We already know it's going to be a close game. The Chiefs don't know how to be in anything else. But every time, it hinges upon a new element. So there won't be any repeats. No toes on the line or botched snaps. No it will be something we haven't seen yet. 

I was running though a mental list of possibilities of unusual ways to win...when it hit me. The inverse of what we just saw. 

We were given foreshadowing a month ago. Bates, the kicker for Detroit, has a knack of kicking it just inside the uprights. 

Here's a composite of two kicks narrowly sneaking by the upright.

So imagine you take a kicker that does THAT, but instead they are kicking in the voodoo capital of the universe against a team that has mastered the dark arts?

The Detroit Lions will lose the Super Bowl by doinking a kick to the Kansas City Chiefs. 

You might assume it's a field goal, and it might be. But it came to me in my vision as a doinked extra point. The most aggressive team in the Lions will lose by going for one.