draft 09 talk

Mark: Certainly, we'll be better than last year. Or at least we won't be worse.

After the Chiefs got the best post-draft grade last year, what do you seem them doing this year? What do you want to see happen?

For the Lions, I'm hoping we DON'T take Stafford with the #1 pick. Either trade down or take a lineman/linebacker. I don't want somebody at a skill position. At #1 you can't gamble and waste tons of money. Make the pick a sure-thing.

Dave: So everyone thinks the Chiefs are going to take Curry, which is fine with me because according to the experts, he's the #1 prospect. Just like we got Dorsey last year at 5 even though he was the top rated player. The only snag with Curry and Dorsey is that the Chiefs are moving to a 3-4 and people don't think those guys can be effective in a 3-4.

The Chiefs got their QB and have a decent backfield. And special teams are okay. The biggest problems are the defense, O-line and receivers beyond Bowe. Even thought it seems that receivers are more important these days (See Fitz in 08 and the record year Brady had with Moss/Welker in 07) I still think that's a position you address last.

So if they could get some good defensive guys and at least one solid O-line guy, I'd be happy.

As for the Lions, we saw how a 1-15 team improved when they went O-Line #1. So of Course I expect Detroit to draft Harrington, I mean Stafford.

Here are some cherry-picked stats I found:

College Stats: completion percentage, and ratio of TD:INT, sorted by ratio

Aaron Rodgers (63.8%) 3.30:1
Phillip Rivers (63.5%) 2.79:1
Peyton Manning (62.7%) 2.73:1
Kyle Orton (59.3%) 2.54:1
Jamarcus Russell (61.8%) 2.48:1
Ben Roethlisberger (65.5%) 2.47:1
Joey Harrington (54.7%) 2.38:1
Eli Manning (60.8%) 2.31:1
Vince Young (61.8%) 1.57:1
Matthew Stafford (57.1%) 1.55:1

Notice that completion percentage seems to be a pretty reliable indicator, based on this small sample. Manning, Big Ben, Rivers, Rodgers all with percentages around 63. Stafford looks like a bust. But think how great he'll look in that new fierce logo!

Mark: Taking the best player available seems like the best thing to do when you suck. Maybe if I knew more about 3-4 vs. 4-3 defenses, I would understand how the best player in the draft might not fit a certain defense. It seems to me that if you're a great linebacker prospect, you'll be able to back lines in any kind of defense. Or am I an idiot?

In any case, I actually read TMQ for the first time in perhaps 2 years and he says that the #1 indicator of a QBs success in the pros is his number of college starts. In that case, Stafford is a much better pick than Sanchez, but I still don't want him. Take a LT or the linebacker.

It appears as though the Lions will have agreed with whoever they pick on a contract before the draft. I see this as a good sign that the Lions are trying and preparing for the draft.

Oh, and Culpepper has been impressing in off-season workouts. Like every year, I'm predicting 9-7 with a visit to the playoffs.