Final Four Home Cookin'

I looked at Sweet 16 Home Cookin' 2 years ago, but now with Michigan State playing in a Final Four 90 miles from campus, it's time to dig deeper.

20 Years of Final Four Home Cookin'

2008
Closest School: Memphis - 733 miles
Champion: Kansas - 779 miles

2007
Closest: Florida - 330 miles (Champion)

2006
Closest: George Mason - 594 miles
Champion: Florida - 863 miles

2005
Closest: Illinois - 178 miles
Champion: UNC - 797 miles

2004
Closest: Oklahoma State - 528 miles
Champion: UConn - 1965 miles

2003
Closest: Texas - 509 miles
Champion: Syracuse - 1382 miles

2002
Closest: Indiana - 523 miles
Champion: Maryland - 647 miles

2001
Closest: Michigan State - 628 miles
Champion: Duke - 1194 miles

2000
Closest: Michigan State - 259 miles (Champion)

1999
Closest: Duke - 697 miles
Champion: UConn - 1297 miles

1998
Closest: Kentucky - 1147 miles (Champion)

1997
Closest: Kentucky - 185 miles
Champion: Arizona - 1474 miles

1996
Closest: UMass - 170 miles
Champion: 704 - miles

1995
Closest: UCLA - 1133 miles (Champion)

1994
Closest: Duke - 143 miles from Durham, NC to Charlotte, NC
Champion: Arkansas - 941 miles

1993
Closest: Kentucky - 745 miles
Champion: UNC - 848 miles

1992
Closest: Indiana - 634 miles
Champion: Duke - 1194 miles

1991
Closest: Kansas - 524 miles
Champion: Duke - 608 miles

1990
Closest: UNLV - 750 miles (Champion)

1989
Closest: Illinois - 2167 miles [nothing's close to Seattle]
Champion: Michigan - 2306 miles

1988
Closest: Kansas - 41 miles to Kansas City (Champion)

Case Studies

Since there are four teams involved, random probably would suggest that 5 times in 20 years the closest team would win. And in fact it happened a statistically insignificant 6 times.

But let's look a little closer. It's extremely rare to have any team close to the Final Four site. So let's examine the true cases relevant to this year's Spartans.

First, I'll weed out the irrelevant years. In 1996, UMass was under 200 miles to East Rutherford but that's basically a New York market. Since Syracuse was also in that Final Four, I doubt that it felt too much like a home atmosphere for UMass.

In 1997, Kentucky was the closest school to Indianapolis by far. But this is the Hoosier state. I'm sure plenty Wildcat fans made the trip but I'm guessing that it still felt like Indiana turf. Likewise in 2000 when MSU was there.

2007 is a borderline year. Since the Gators won in 2006, I'm sure there where plenty of bandwagon fans in Georgia and UF was the only team in the region/SEC. But it's still in Georgia.

So the three comparable years for the 2009 Spartans are:

1988 Kansas Jayhawks in Kansas City

KU was a 6-seed in the Midwest regional (Pontiac, MI) and beat a 4th-seeded K-State team in the Elite Eight to advance. Led by Danny Manning they beat the 2-seed Duke from the East regional 66-59. In the championship game, KU faced off against heavily favored Oklahoma who had already beaten them twice that year. The Jayhawks won the title 83-79.

1994 Duke Blue Devils in Charlotte

As a 2-seed, Duke beat Purdue at the Knoxville regional to advance to the Final Four in Charlotte. They beat Florida 70-65 but fell to the Razorbacks 72-76 in the Championship.

2005 Illinois Fighting Illini in St. Louis

After their amazing 15-point comeback over Arizona in the Chicago regional final, Illinois beat Louisville 72-57. This set up a championship game between the top 2 teams in the country and was tied at 70 with under 2 minutes remaining. UNC won 75-70.

Conclusion

Well, based on those three case studies, it would seem to bode well that Michigan State would at least advance to the Championship game. And in that case, look for the game to be decided by 4 or 5 points, but not necessarily with MSU on top.