Bon Voyage

I'll be back in a week. Just in time for the playoffs. Happy New Year!

Parisian Picks

A little early, but wanted to get the last week in, before I'm off to France.

Redskins +2.5 over Giants
Bills +9 over Ravens
Bears -2.5 over Packers
Steelers +6 over Bengals
Lions +12.5 over Cowboys
Texans -4 over Browns
Dolphins +9 over Colts
Chiefs -2 over Jags
Rams -1.5 over Vikes
Raiders +13 over Jets
Falcons +7.5 over Eagles
Seahawks +3 over Bucs
Pats +3 over Titans
Broncos -10.5 over 49ers
Cardinals +14 over Bolts

Week 16 Recap: Only One Week Left

Week 16
Dave: 11-5 = Up $120
Mark: no picks
Sports Guy: 8-7-1 = Up $20
Sports Gal: 8-7-1 = Up $20

On the Season
Dave: 119-121 = Down $40
Mark: 90-103 = Down $260
Sports Guy: 119-114-7 = Up $100
Sports Gal: 122-111-7 = Up $220

The Importance of the Bye Week

And I'm not talking about the bye week that comes in week 3, I'm talking about playoffs! The goal for teams is usually just to make the playoffs, hopefully by winning the division. But my guess is that if you really want to make it to the Super Bowl, being the #1 or #2 seed and getting the bye is really advantageous. But how much so? Last year the Steelers proved you can win it all by being a wild-card team. Let's find out how important a playoff bye really is.

In 1990 the playoffs expanded to 12 teams, and is the beginning of the modern format, and our analysis of the bye weeks.

There are 16 years to study, meaning 32 Super Bowl teams. Here's the breakdown by seed:

#1 seed: 16 appearances, 8 winners
#2 seed: 10 appearances, 5 winners
#3 seed: 1 appearance, 0 winners
#4 seed: 3 appearances, 2 winners
#5 seed: 0 appearances, 0 winners
#6 seed: 1 appearance, 1 winner

• The odds of a Super Bowl team or Super Bowl winner having a playoff bye is 81.25%.
• The #2 seed has fared much better than the #3 seed, despite that the difference could come down to a tiebreaker.
• All 3 of the #4 seeds to advance to the Super Bowl were Wild Card teams, as they occured before the NFL switched to the 4 division lineup in 2002. The winners were the 2000 Ravens and the 1997 Broncos. The loser, 1992 Buffalo, which only made it to the Super Bowl because of "The Comeback" against the Oilers.
• The only other Wild Card team to make it to the Super Bowl -- the 2005 Steelers. That makes Wild Card teams 3 out of 4 when playing in the Super Bowl.
• The only divisional winner to make the Super Bowl without getting a bye -- the 2003 Panthers.

There have been 64 teams that got playoff byes. 26 of them made it to the Super Bowl. 40.625% success rate.
There have been 40 divisional winners that didn't get byes. 1 of them made it to the Super Bowl. 2.5% success rate.
There have been 88 wild card teams. 4 of them have made it to the Super Bowl. 4.55% success rate.

Overall, only 2 of the 12 playoff teams can make it. A 16.66% rate.

Clearly, it's not good enough to win your division. You have to go out and get that bye. The numbers are even more impressive than I thought they would be.

What I'm All About

In this world of sports blogging, that's become all the rage, you can expect to find certain things. You'll find a fair amount of recapping games with the blogger's reactions. I suppose I do a fair bit of that, but that's not my bread and butter. And you're bound to find lots of predictions, which I plead "no contest" to. And apparently, people like to compare teams or athletes to certain things in pop culture, for example Simpsons characters. I never saw the point of this, and I don't think I ever will.

The posts that I find I'm most proud of, usually fall in to one of three categories:

1. Offbeat or philisphical writing that at times has only a vague or non-existent connection to sports
(examples: here, here and here)
2. Ideas and strategies that I think would work
(examples: here, here, here, here, and here)
3. In-depth analysis using personally gathered, real statistics
(examples: here, here, and here)

Sure I love to throw in some filler youtube clips or talk about how the Chiefs are letting me down, but it's these 3 categories that I think make my little site here a little different than what else is out there.

What Chocolate Covered Pretzels Reveal About Life

I love chocolate. Especially a good bar of real, dark chocolate. But what makes chocolate taste even better. Putting it on a pretzel. The combination of sweet and salty. Put them together and they are even better than they are separate.

It's just like everything else in the world. Everything is better with balance. Football wouldn't be as great if it was played 12 months of the year. For most people spending time with their family is the best thing in the world, and yet everyone needs a little time alone. The salty makes the sweet taste even better.

As the holidays are approaching, we should all remember to enjoy the sweetness of the season, and take time to reflect on any saltiness that you've experienced. Happy Holidays.

Happy Holidays Picks

Packers -3.5 over Vikings
Raiders +6.5 over Chiefs
Falcons -5.5 over Panthers
Bears -4.5 over Lions
Pats +2.5 over Jags
Saints +2.5 over Giants
Texans +9.5 over Colts
Rams -2.5 over Redskins
Ravens +3.5 over Steelers
Bucs +2.5 over Browns
Titans +4.5 over Bills
Niners -4.5 over Cards
Bengals +2.5 over Broncos
Chargers -4.5 over Seahawks
Eagles +6.5 over Cowboys
Jets +2.5 over Dolphins

Week 15: Watch Out!

Week 15
Dave: 9-7 = Up $40
Mark: 11-5 = Up $120
Sports Guy: 6-10 = Down $80
Sports Gal: 8-8 = Even

On the Season
Dave: 108-116 = Down $160
Mark: 90-103 = Down $260
Sports Guy: 111-107-6 = Up $80
Sports Gal: 114-104-6 = Up $200

Favorites and Dogs

I would love to do a league wide analysis, but that would take forever. So lets just look at the Chiefs and see how they do when favored, and when not.

-2.5 vs Bengals. Bengals win by 13. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.
+10.5 at Broncos. Broncos win by 3. Chiefs were underdog, lost, and covered.
-7 vs 49ers. Chiefs win by 41. Chiefs were favorite and won and covered.
-3.5 at Cardinals. Chiefs win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and won, but did not cover.
+6.5 at Steelers. Steelers win by 38. Chiefs were underdog, lost, and did not cover.
+5.5 vs Chargers. Chiefs win by 3. Chiefs were underdog and won game.
-5.5 vs Seahawks. Chiefs win by 7. Chiefs were favorite and won and covered.
+2.5 at Rams. Chiefs win by 14. Chiefs were underdog and won game.
-3.5 at Dolphins. Dolphins win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.
-11 vs Raiders. Chiefs win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and won, but did not cover.
+1 vs Broncos. Chiefs win by 9. Chiefs were underdog and won game.
-5 at Browns. Browns win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.
-1.5 vs Ravens. Ravens win by 10. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.


Of the 13 games they have played so far:

8 times the Chiefs were favorites.

• 4 times they lost.
• 2 times they won and covered.
• 2 times they won but did not cover.

So that makes them 2-6 ATS as a favorite.


5 times the Chiefs were dogs

• 3 times they won.
• 1 time they lost and covered
• 1 time they lost and did not cover.

That makes them 4-1 ATS as a dog.



In only 3 out of 13 games did the spread come into play. (+10.5 at Broncos, -3.5 at Cardinals, -11 vs Raiders)
Also, and the biggest note for gamblers, in Chiefs games, the underdog is 10-3 ATS. If you bet $20 on the underdog in Chiefs games every week, you would be up $140.

It Is What It Is

It's easier to fix the BCS than it is to fix what's going on in Darfur. I can spit out what's wrong with soccer and hockey and I have no idea how to really solve what's wrong in Iraq. It's fun to hypothesize about playoff pictures, and agonizing to look at pictures of world poverty.

I spend so much time thinking about trivial things...and sometimes I have observations without an agenda or a thesis. It is what it is.

The Top Ten Of 2005/2006

You know the drill: They say it's going to be a new episode, but it's just a clip show some rookie editor slapped together. Well, this collection of writing really took hold at the start of the 2005 NFL season, and 258 posts later, I think I can find at least 10 good posts. So here's my holiday clip show, my top ten list, or the best 3.88% that I have to offer.



#10. Pardon the Interruption, but I'm Smarter than Mark

If only for the Photoshop job.


#9. Introducing the 9 Day Week

Perhaps the first of my many suggestions for fixing the world.


#8. The Gaucho Way of Preparing Meat

A recap of a meatravaganza!


#7. The Greatest Game Ever Played

A tribute to gutsy coaching of Dick Vermeil and the 2005 Chiefs.


#6. Six Degrees of Kyle Orton

A serious look at NFL quarterbacks.


#5. Why I Married a Vegetarian

A semi-serious cost benefit analysis of marrying someone who doesn't eat meat.


#4. You Must Be Fucking With Me

A satiric look at how Blockbuster patronizes me.


#3. How Far We've Come

A personal timeline of football video games.


#2. Here's what a BCS Playoff would look like

How I solved one of the biggest problem in sports.


#1. Buying a Cow

"Why buy the cow, when you can get the milk for free?"

This is why I don't ever eat fruits or vegetables

First it was spinach, then scallions, now the FDA says that lettuce is the probable cause of the Taco Bell E. coli outbreak. You know what doesn't have lettuce? The delicious Chicken Enchilada Stuft Burrito. Mmm.

Week 15 Picks

Niners +9.5 over Seahawks
Cowboys -3.5 over Falcons
Ravens -11.5 over Browns
Saints -9.5 over Redskins
Bills -1.5 over Dolphins
Bears -13.5 over Bucs
Titans +3.5 over Jags
Jets +3.5 over Vikings
Patriots -11.5 over Texans
Packers -5.5 over Lions
Steelers -2.5 over Panthers
Cardinals +2.5 over Broncos
Rams +1.5 over Raiders
Giants -5.5 over Eagles
Chiefs +8.5 over Chargers
Bengals +3.5 over Colts

Parallel Reality

The Rams should have had 1st and 10 on the Bears 23 with 35 seconds left in the first half, trailing 13-14.

Instead, the refs kept the clock moving after Bruce ran out of bounds, forcing the Rams to spike the ball. Now they had 2nd and 10, with 20 seconds remaining. A penalty ensued, and the Rams missed a long field goal: halftime score Bears 14, Rams 13.

But under the first scenario, their playcalling would have been different, and who knows if they would have scored a touchdown or a field goal, but any score would be likely.

That would mean that the Rams would have more momentum and the lead, when they get the ball in the second half. Now the 2nd half that actually happened would never have existed.

Just like in Back to the Future, there is no way to predict what would happen next, but it's probable that the game wouldn't have unfolded the way it did.

Outcoached and Oversaturation

There has been a heavy anti-ESPN backlash recently, and for the most part, I have been supportive of the Network/Website. I think they still do a lot of stuff right, and I can't say that it would be easy to do what they do. But their worst offense maybe their over saturation of Monday Night Football, which is in its first year on ESPN. The entire day of Monday is devoted to that night's game, including updates on the teams every 20 minutes! And just moments after NBC's Sunday night showdown between the Saints and Cowboys, I turned to ESPNews for highlights. Instead, they are already previewing the Monday night game. Enough is enough.

Furthermore, if it's not MNF, they reiterate the same stories over and over when there isn't anything new to report. How many days can they lead with "no word yet on where Iverson will go"? And yet, despite how much sports coverage I get, I haven't heard anything talking about one of the gutsiest calls, in the middle of a complete example of outcoaching.

The call -- an onside kick with the Saints leading 35-17. They've got all the momentum in the world in the 3rd quarter. Kick away and there should be no problem to hold on to win. But an onside kick? Recovering it would really seal the deal, but lose it, and give them great field position? The cowboys could cut it to a 11-point game in the 3rd quarter and regain some momentum. The risk doesn't seem to be worth the reward.

But Payton was confident that he could catch the Cowboys sleeping, and recover the kick easily. They did. And would score on the drive. How come no one in media is praising his coaching call? They would be ready to rant and rave, if they lost that kick and it backfired. So how come the media prefers to attack instead of praise?

And you know what, that wasn't the coaching call that made me say "I really like this coach."

Earlier in the game, down 0-7, Saints had a 4th and 1 from the DAL39. They called a reverse using Bush as a decoy. Risky play, but it worked.


Payton outcoached Parcells, yet Parcells couldn't admit it. Here are his quotes after the game:

"We took a bad beating tonight," Cowboys head coach Bill Parcells said. "We got beat in about every way possible. They really outplayed us and kept us off balance. They did a good job and we didn't play well. That was a pretty good licking and I can't think of anything that we really did well."

Why is outcoached a dirty word? Players get outplayed and coaches get outcoached. It happens. Just about every game. It doesn't mean you're a bad player or a bad coach. It just happens. So admit it.

"What's his name?" "How much time is left?" and other quotes heard at a 60's football game

Sure there was no two-point conversion or instant replay, but what else was different about football in the 60's?

For starters, the goalposts were conveniently in the field of play. And there were no names on players jerseys. As for the game time? That was kept on the field, and not displayed to the crowd. Penalty flags were white until 1965. And before 1965, no one was a soccer-style kicker. And there weren't any regulations on jersey numbers based on positions. There wasn't any overtime in the regular season, and kickoffs were from the 40-yard line. And referees didn't get wireless microphones until 1975.

And I hope you lived in one of these cities, because there were only 16 teams, half of the current league:

Atlanta Falcons
Chicago Bears
Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns*
Pittsburgh Steelers*
Baltimore Colts*


*Pre-merger NFL teams that went to the AFC. Note this cities' teams feel more like the smashmouth feel of the NFC.


By the way, of the original 14 franchise from 1920, how many are still active?

Two.

Chicago Bears (originally from Decatur) and
Arizona Cardinals (originally from Chicago, via St. Louis)

Also, the "head slap" was outlawed in 1977. So, I guess the 60's was a headslapping free-for-all.

Week 14 Recap: I'm running out of time

Week 14
Dave: 8-8 = Even
Mark: 1-0 = Up $20
Sports Guy: 12-4 = Up $160
Sports Gal: 9-7 = Up $40

On the Season
Dave: 99-109 = Down $200
Mark: 79-98 = Down $380
Sports Guy: 105-97-6 = Up $160
Sports Gal: 106-96-6 = Up $200

Week 14 Picks: So I'm down 10 games, carry the one, and...

Steelers -9.5 over Browns
Jags +2.5 over Colts
Titans -1.5 over Texans
Chiefs -1.5 over Ravens
Bengals -10.5 over Raiders
Redskins +1.5 over Eagles
Vikings +2.5 over Lions
Patriots -3.5 over Dolphins
Giants +2.5 over Panthers
Bucs +3.5 over Falcons
Seahawks -3.5 over Cardinals
49ers -5.5 over Packers
Jets -4.5 over Bills
Broncos +7.5 over Chargers
Saints +6.5 over Cowboys
Bears -6.5 over Rams

AFC Wildcard Spots: Tigers and Airplanes

I haven't had the motivation to really go into this indepth, but I'm fairly sure that the 2 AFC spots will go to the Bengals and Jets.

Denver is behind the Chiefs in a tiebreaker, and have a rookie QB. I think they'll lose to the Chargers this week, and then they would need to win their remaining 3 games, and have the Chiefs only win 2 out of their remaining 4. If the Broncos do win this week against San Diego, that opens things up quite a bit.

The Jags have the toughest schedule, and have trouble winning on the road. Won't really be in it. And they'll lose to the Chiefs in their last game, so they don't have any shot anyways.

The Bengals are playing the best right now, and will likely be in without a worry.

Jets and the Chiefs.
The Jets have the easiest schedule and would own the conference tiebreaker, so all they would have to do is match the Chiefs win for win, and they're in. But they are the Jets, so 2 losses even against sorry teams isn't impossible.

The Chiefs really need to play well and get help. They would likely own the tiebreaker over the Broncos, but would lose to the rest of the conference. So they need to win at least 3 of 4, and hope the Jets or Bengals lose 2. Otherwise, they need to win all 4 games. They can beat the Ravens at home, but the Chargers on the road? And the Raiders always play the Chiefs tough.

I think the Chiefs could win 3 of 4, but I bet the Jets and Bengals can do that too.

rose bowl image dump

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