Decision Made for Vikings

Vikings trade for Josh Dobbs, who just went 1-7 with the Cardinals. Hold that thought. 

Let's jump back to 2009. The 2008 Vikings won their division and were riding high on incredible seasons from Adrian Peterson. They had a real window to contend for the Super Bowl. In 2009 they signed Brett Favre. 

From Hoagie Central in 2009:

Here's the remainder of Peterson's career with the Vikings:

They went all-in with Favre in 2009, won one playoff game, before Favre choked the game with a vintage interception. They got one more year out of Favre and they went 6-10. Never found a QB and wasted Adrian Peterson's Super Bowl window.

Jump forward to 2016. Bridgewater gets hurt so they give up a first round pick for Sam Bradford.

Hoagie Central panned the move:

They got two seasons of Sam Bradford in exchange for that first round pick. 

That playoff game they won? That's the Minneapolis Miracle which was led by Case Keenum.

Bradford only played 2 games for the Vikings in 2017.

And now that brings us to 2023.

The Kirk Cousins era has been solid but only one playoff win to show for it. The Vikings had a chance to take their lumps with Jaren Hall and reload next year, but instead are going to claw their way to a mid-record and not be any better off a year from now.

Week 8 Decisions

The Vikings are at a crossroads. 

They're 4-4 and firmly in the hunt for a wild-card spot, with only 5 NFC teams with a better record. At the moment the only trail the Lions by one win, prior to the Lions playing tonight. 

In the standings, their season still has hope. 

But they just lost Cousins for the year AND it was his last year of his contract. So they needed a new QB of the future before this Achilles injury. Plus, Justin Jefferson is dealing with a hamstring injury and is a couple weeks away from returning. 

So you have two paths. 

1) Replace Cousins with a stop-gap solution. Spend draft capital to go get someone like Jacoby Brissett or someone of that quality. Get Jefferson back in the building as soon as you can and push to make the playoffs this year. Very possible to get a wild-card spot. Maybe even win a first-round playoff game if everything falls right. 

2) Play out the rest of the year with the QB room you have. Save your draft capital, and in fact, accept that you could end the year with a top-10 pick if you essentially tank from here on out. Let Jefferson get all the way healthy. Don't risk any further injury. Ya know what, take December off too Justin. Finish at 5-12 and draft a new QB in the top 10 next year. 

I realize it sucks to give up on the season before Halloween. But I would extend the coach and just say hey, let's build something next year. 

- - -

Three weeks ago, the 49ers were fresh off stomping the Cowboys by 32 and were 5-0. Seemed like the best team in the league. The discussion was who would get the #1 seed, 49ers or Eagles. Now they're not even in 1st place in their division. 

Literally, the 49ers lost to the Eagles last year in the playoffs because the 49ers were too injured. And once again, the 49ers get banged up and are struggling. 

Your QB that couldn't lose a game, now can't win a game. 

Suddenly, whiffing on Trey Lance seems like a much bigger failure. Of course, in a league with so few quarterbacks playing well, it's not like they can upgrade during the season. Perhaps the only thing they can do is spend money on the medical staff at this point.

- - -

Speaking of so few good QBs, let's dive into that. Here's my current top ten with the Ringer's rankings mostly intact after the top ten. 

The point of this is not to debate Baker Mayfield vs Mac Jones, (though I'd rather have Mayfield) but just to show the sheer drop off. 

Dak is not a QB you'd be thrilled to have locked up for a guaranteed 5-year deal. 

Goff is a QB the Rams had to trade away to win the Super Bowl. 

And they're still in my top 10!

Geno is in my mind a solid average starter. He should be the 16th best QB in the league. 

Stafford is old and just got hurt. Cousins is out for the year. Anything after Cousins is something you absolutely do not want. With the exception of Stroud looks good for a rookie. Richardson is talented but too fragile. Levis isn't even on the website yet. He's only had one good game. But because of the bleak situation I'd rather have him than Carr, or either Jones.

Even though I just said Geno is solid/average, I'll be generous and say we have 11 good, healthy QBs in the league right now. That's pitiful. There are 14 playoff teams!

Let's go one notch deeper. 

Let's align my top 11 QBs by division. 

AFC East

Allen

Tua

AFC North

Lamar

Burrow

AFC South

Lawrence

AFC West

Mahomes

Herbert

NFC East

Hurts

Dak

NFC North

Goff

NFC South

(none)

NFC West

Geno

This kinda tells the whole story of the league right now, right?

Based on this alone, you would say those should be the 7 AFC playoff teams. 

And in the NFC, you're missing the 49ers. That says so much. 

Sports Fandom: Chicken or the Egg?

I really don't care about the baseball playoffs or the NBA season.

Two years ago, I proclaimed that I was becoming a Bulls fan. That really didn't take. 

I had sorta wondered about the whole chicken and egg thing with following a sport and having a team. What I mean is this: Which of these is true:

a) I don't like baseball because I don't have a team to follow

b) I don't have a baseball team to follow because I don't like the sport

Well, the Chicago Bulls thing was basically an experiment. And now I have the answer. It's b. It's always b. 

There are sports I don't like watching/following like baseball and the NBA. So identifying as a fan is not going to work. 

In 2011, I moved to Colorado. I wasn't a fan of any NBA, MLB or NHL team at the time. I became an Avalanche fan because I like hockey. The Rockies and Nuggets never did anything for me. 

It also explains why I care about Illinois basketball and football but not Illinois tennis or golf, even though we're much better at golf than football. 

- - -

So what sports do I like?

Football

Easily my favorite sport. Fantasy and gambling add to the fun.

Hockey 

Especially playoff hockey. Great live too.

College Basketball 

Specifically March Madness.

College Football

I find that the uneven scheduling makes for most games to be not that close. 

World Cup Soccer

The international format and rarity makes this a big deal. 

Is that it?

Growing up I would watch anything. Professional indoor lacrosse, professional indoor soccer, roller hockey. Handball and water polo at the olympics. But now it doesn't seem like that much. 

MLB, NBA, MLS do nothing for me. I do like watching Rugby but it's hard to do from the states. One day if I lived in Europe, I could see getting into the soccer leagues, but I don't need that much soccer in my life right now. I still like Arsenal, Barcelona and Roma but I'm not following their progress. (It would be fun to attend a game in London or Barcelona or Rome one day though.) Or one day it would be fun to attend a rugby game in person. 

Okay, so this is weird and random. I just looked up rugby tournaments and turns out the big one is called the Rugby World Cup, held every four years, and the final just happens to be tomorrow.

Maybe I can catch the All Blacks doing the Haka and see if they can beat the Springboks?

Which College Football Teams are Essential?

On the Retro Bowl subreddit, someone asked: Which are the most essential 32 college football teams? They wanted to turn their NFL game into a College game by customizing the NFL rosters. Everyone told him to just get the College Retro Bowl version, but he didn't want that. It was insane, but it did get me thinking. If you had to narrow it down to roughly 32, which are the most essential teams? And what is the real number of high-quality teams? 25? 40?

Let's figure it out. 

I'm starting with the SEC, the most essential conference. 

5 leap off the page:

Alabama

Auburn

LSU

Florida

Georgia

There are other good names but we can't take everybody. Let's move on for now.

Let's shift gears and look and the list of champions and start plucking names:

Clemson

Ohio State

Florida State

Notre Dame

Texas

Oklahoma

USC

UCLA

Miami

Tennessee

Nebraska

Penn State

Michigan

Washington

Colorado

That covers most schools claiming a championship in the last 50 years. Exceptions like SMU which I don't think most people would say are essential. 

Let's take a look at current rankings. 

Oregon

Really the only notable team that I didn't already mention in the current rankings. Wild. 

Going through the list of biggest rivalries, the only one I'm really missing is Army-Navy. Since we have the room, let's add them. 

Army 

Navy

We also have room for these two:

Cal

Stanford

We're up to 25. 

Let's do a quick check by conference. 

Wisconsin has been pretty big for a while. Michigan State too I guess. Iowa is a maybe.

Texas A&M is a decent name. Baylor's a good one. Texas Tech for Mahomes. 

At this level there's a lot of maybes. You could argue Illinois for Red Grange and Dick Butkus. 

You could argue Pitt and West Virginia for the rivalry. Same for BYU and Utah. Or adding Oregon State for the Oregon rivalry. Same for Oklahoma State. South Carolina, Georgia Tech.

Here's how I have to approach it. If a neutral fan was buying a mobile game, hoping to replicate the best college football experience, which ones would I be disappointed to be excluded?

Of the maybes, I think Baylor, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Texas A&M, probably make the cut. So that's 30 essential teams. 

After that you could throw in Pitt, West Virginia and Iowa I guess, but it's really more fan/region-specific. 

Really, if you had the top 21 on the list before I added Army-Navy, you'd be doing pretty good. 

Top 5 in All Phases

That's a long time. 

But it begs the question, how meaningful is it, especially this early in the season. 

1999 Rams: Won Super Bowl

1996 Packers: Won Super Bowl

1991 Washington: Won Super Bowl

1990 Giants: Won Super Bowl

1985 Bears: Won Super Bowl

1984 Washington: Lost Divisional Playoffs

Ummm, okay, so that's a wildly meaningful stat. Carry on.

best song of 2023

Week 7 New Super Bowl Favorite

The 6-1 Kansas City Chiefs are the new favorite to win the Super Bowl, ahead of 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys. 

The Bills looked dominant in weeks 2-4, then went to London and have looked like shit since then. They're 4-3 and just don't seem like a contender at the moment. Which they have time to fix that...but their best hope of making it to the Super Bowl was getting that #1 seed and the only bye, forcing the Chiefs/Dolphins* (or whoever the other top teams are by January) to play each other. But with a 4-3 record, even if they round into form, their odds of getting the bye are not ideal. 

The Dolphins just lost to the Eagles. Like, it's cool to drop 70 on the Broncos. It really is. But Miami needs to beat a good team before we're sure they're a Super Bowl contender. 

I can't say it enough, the November 5 Germany game between KC and Miami is huge. If Miami wins that, it would vault them into first place in the AFC via head-to-head tiebreaker. Lose, and Chiefs might be able to secure the #1 seed and rest players in the regular season. 

- - -

Coming into the season, I wasn't confident that the Chiefs would be the same Super Bowl contender we saw last year. I know how hard it is to repeat AND there were bad vibes around Kelce's injury and Chris Jones' holdout. Well the bad vibes are gone. The defense is legit good, the only team to hold every opponent to 20 or less. The offense looked sharp again. Hardman already made an impact with a 50-yard punt return and Charles Omenihu helped the defense in his first game for the Chiefs. At this point, it feels like all the pressure is on other teams to prove they belong in the same conversation with the Chiefs. Pretty nice spot to be in at week 7. (Of course, there's 11 more weeks in the regular season. It can all go to hell for tons of reasons, including injuries. Nothing is guaranteed. Et cetera.)

- - -

Who's the second best team in the division?

The Raiders? With the -49 point differential and just got blown out by TYSON BAGENT and the Bears?

The Chargers? Who have 2 wins after week 7? And are 14th out of 16 in the AFC standings?

Or the Broncos? Who also have 2 wins and gave up 70 points this year?

Okay, it's the Chargers. But still. 2-4 is not where you want to be after choking a playoff game.

- - -

AFC

Cross-Offs: Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, Jets

Playoff Teams: Chiefs, Dolphins, Ravens, Jaguars, Bills.

I know it's early but it looks your four division winners are in this group. I'm not ready to believe in Steelers or Browns. As of right now, I would put the Bengals and Texans as more likely to be wild-card teams. 

NFC

Cross-Offs: Giants, Bears, Vikings, Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders, Packers

Packers are a new addition. I was believing through 3-4 weeks. Last two weeks, back to back losses to Raiders and Broncos. Yeesh.

7 out of 16 crossed-off in Week 7, including every NFC North team except the Lions. 

Playoff Teams: Eagles, 49ers, Lions, Cowboys, probably Seahawks, probably Falcons

Week 6 Chiefs vs Lions Super Bowl

There are no undefeated teams in the NFL. 

There are 5 teams tied with the best record: 5-1. 

Chiefs and Dolphins in the AFC. 49ers, Eagles and Lions in the NFC. 

I know we're not halfway through the season yet, but still...this is the closest we've ever been to a Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl. How close are we?

Chiefs are the AFC favorite at just +230. Lions are behind the Cowboys but only because Dallas is a public team. Lions at +600 to go to the Super Bowl. 

And if you parlay the two tickets, the odds are +2210. So sure, still a longshot. 22-1 odds. But it's not a longshot like Leicester when they were 5000-1 to win the Premier League. 

There are exactly 7 AFC teams with a point differential over 10: Bills, Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens, Texans, Jaguars and Browns. 

Likewise, exactly 7 NFC teams with a point differential over 10: 49ers, Lions, Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Seahawks, Saints. 

Is it that simple? Are those our 14 playoff teams? If it is that simple, remind me just to make money off of this.

favorite bands, revisited

back in 2014, I did a full top 80 bands

in 2020 census, I did a top 10 bands

I thought maybe I could make an update focused on being helpful to me, just to keep tabs on the bands I like. (Also, like just in case my Spotify got deleted or something, I'd have a backup.)

All of these are based on the reality of how much I like/listen to them, not a judgment on absolute quality. 

Tier One

311

Alkaline Trio

Dashboard Confessional

Motion City Soundtrack

New Found Glory

Panic! at the Disco

Vampire Weekend

Tier Two

Death Cab for Cutie

Jimmy Eat World

Fall Out Boy

Weezer

Jack Johnson

Ozma

Third Eye Blind

The Hold Steady

Tier Three

AJR

New Politics

The National

The Stereo

Brand New

Saves The Day

Unwritten Law 

Midtown

Tommy Prine

Waterparks

Seaway

Blink 182

Tier Four

Reel Big Fish

Sugarcult

Less Than Jake

Sublime

Strike

The Starting Line

The Impossibles

The Pixies

Jimi Hendrix

Forever the Sickest Kids

The Get Up Kids

My Chemical Romance

State Champs

Sum 41

Twenty One Pilots

Tier Five

Bracket

American Hi-Fi

Incubus

Flaming Lips

The Anniversary

The Juliana Theory

Flickerstick

Cartel

Hey Mercedes

Zebrahead

Tier Six

Just Surrender

Lucky Boys Confusion

Ultimate Fakebook

The Red Hot Valentines

The Audition

All Time Low

The Promise Ring

The Urge

Hit The Lights

The Menzingers

Reggie and the Full Effect

Milencolin

Against Me

Pedro the Lion

When Did the Patriots Dynasty End?

Let's work through it.

The Patriots won Super Bowls in the 2014, 2016 and 2018 NFL seasons. 

If you are a strict judge, going by their last title, you could make the argument that their last successful moment was winning Super Bowl LIII. 

But Brady and Belichick were still going strong in the 2019 NFL season. The Patriots went 12-4 and won the AFC East. Just because they didn't win the Super Bowl doesn't end a dynasty, as they didn't win in the 2015 and 2017 seasons also. Winning the AFC East here is crucial. This was the 11th season in a row that the Pats won the division. From 2001 to 2019, the Patriots won the division 17 out of 19 seasons. Insane. 

So we're in agreement that the Patriots dynasty was still active in the 2019 season. 

But look at what happens in 2020. 

Tom Brady leaves.

The Patriots go 7-9. 

They miss the playoffs, which is essentially unheard of during their 19-year run.

And they go from winning the AFC East every year to finishing 3rd in the division. 

Since the start of the 2020 season, the Patriots have yet to win the division or win a playoff game. 

By 2020 the Patriots dynasty was over. 

- - -

The simplest way to mark the ending would be to say in the off-season when Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay. Perhaps it's the best. 

But...

Another way of looking at it would be that a dynasty doesn't just end. The torch has to be passed. 

It just so happens in the four years since the Patriots won their last Super Bowl, one team has won multiple Super Bowls. And they did it at the end of the 2019 season, marking the start of the 2020 off-season. 

So when the Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV, the torch was passed to the new kings of the league. 

- - -

So those are really the two best answers. Either when Brady left the Patriots on March 20, 2020 or when the Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV on February 2, 2020. And yeah, they're only 6 weeks apart with no games being played in between, so we're really splitting hairs. 

- - -

Just for fun though. If we roll with the theory that Super Bowl LIV ended the Patriot dynasty...it really requires a closer look at the 2019 Week 14 game where the Chiefs went into Gillette and beat the Patriots. The two teams ended the season at 12-4 and without the playoffs arranging itself just the way it did, the outcome could have been wildly different.

Point / Counterpoint: Are the 2023 Chiefs Good?

Point: The Chiefs look sloppy. Mahomes has thrown 5 interceptions in 6 games. Their offense could only score 19 vs the Broncos. They barely beat the Zack Wilson Jets. Their game vs the Vikings came down to the wire. They don't have any good wide receivers. The Chiefs are not very good.

Counterpoint: The Chiefs are 5-1. The one game they lost was to the Lions by one point, and that was without both Chris Jones and Travis Kelce. Mahomes has had some strange throws, but no reason to think it will continue all year—he plays best when the pressure is on. The defense has been excellent. The offense has been doing enough to win while experimenting with trick plays. Rashee Rice is emerging as a good receiver. They Chiefs are good. 

Point: It's super hard to repeat as Champions. You've said it yourself, you don't see the Chiefs as winning the Super Bowl. 

Counterpoint: That's true. This Chiefs team, especially right now, doesn't seem like a Super Bowl-winning team. 

The first step is seeing who gets the #1 seed and the bye in the AFC, as with only one bye and potentially 3 elite teams, that bye is huge. 

The second step is getting to the Super Bowl. 

The third step is winning that game. 

With a 5-1 record and their only loss being to a NFC team, the Chiefs are super well positioned to contend for the AFC top seed. Their games vs Miami and Buffalo will be huge and it would help if Miami can drop a random game here or there. 

As for the second step, it's all about how you're playing in January. So if the offense is sloppy and they don't have any good receivers in January, that's a red flag. But they've got time to figure that out. 

As for the Super Bowl, we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Right now Eagles or 49ers would be favored but it depends on injuries and luck and everything else. 

Point: Right now Chiefs are 5-1 to win the Super Bowl. So Vegas is giving them a 20% chance. 80% chance they don't win it. 

Counterpoint: Yeah. The favorite is the 49ers at 4.5-1. Chiefs are 2nd. It's correct for any team that the field is more likely than that team. But having the best odds in the AFC is still a good place to be.

Week 5 Power Poll

AFC

Cross-Offs: Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, Jets

I think Richardson is made of glass so I'll stick with Jags as AFC South Favorite. (Although I don't love the Jags this week after two weeks in London.)

I'm not convinced any team in the AFC North is good yet. 

Still seems like Dolphins, Bills and Chiefs are the top 3. Can't cross any more teams off because they're all so mediocre. 

NFC

Cross-Offs: Giants, Bears, Vikings, Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders

These teams stink. 6 out of 16 crossed-off in Week 5. 

Playoff Teams: Eagles, 49ers, Lions, probably Cowboys

That leaves 3 playoff spots for these 6 teams: Bucs, Seahawks, Falcons, Saints, Packers, Rams. At this point, Seahawks seem most likely. Then Saints. I would have said Packers if they would have beaten the Raiders. 

Calcutta Power Poll

1 49ers

2 Eagles

3 Chiefs

4 Dolphins

5 Bills

6 Lions

7 Cowboys?

It gets pretty murky around here. Vegas still likes the Ravens above the Lions but I don't. And it likes the Cowboys just behind Dolphins and Bills which seems too high. (Public team tax I guess). 

Feeling good about my Calcutta 49ers and Cowboys. Jaguars and Falcons both moving in the right direction. Steelers and Chargers still doing fine. Jets are who they are without Rodgers. And Packers would have been a lot better with a win last night. 

Mark desperately needs Burrow to get Bengals back into form. Lions are his best team. Saints and Browns have signs of life, but that Chubb injury hurts.

Matt's a two team roster with Eagles and Bills leading the way. 

And Kirat's got Chiefs and Dolphins with Ravens plus Seahawks and Bucs doing fine. 

You gotta be kidding me

In our Eliminator league, Mark had won the first 4 weeks in a row.

In week 5, I had good games from Breece Hall, De'Von Achane and Sam LaPorta. Entering Monday Night Football, I only trailed Mark by 5 points. And I had Jordan Love at QB facing the Raiders, a bottom 5 defense. 

Here's Jordan Love so far this season:

If Love put up 25 or more, it would push my team to the 2nd highest score of the season and into bonus money territory. 

But all I really need is 5.5 out of him to win the week. 

Long story, short, he's struggling. He gets to 7 points late in the 4th quarter and I think it's sealed up. But then he throws his 2nd pick of the night. Back to 5. 

We don't even have rules for a tie because it's never happened. 

With 2 minutes left, the Raiders have a 4th and 2. If they go for and pick it up, that ends the game and Mark and I tie. I'm desperately hoping they kick, so Love can get the ball back. I only need a few passing or rushing yards. 

They kick. They miss. 

Love gets his 5 passing yards and is up to 6 points. 

There's 44 seconds left. All I need him to do is not fumble or throw an interception. I don't even need a touchdown. Like a turnover on downs is fine. 

You already know what happens.

Chucks it deep, interception in the end zone. 

I lose week 5 by 1 point.

Niraj KC Visit - 2023

Niraj got in late Thursday so the only thing we did that night was play a 1am game of Camel Up with Mrs. Hoagie Central. 

Friday we started with lunch at Chicken n Pickle. Tasty food and cornhole too.

They let me play in the Gameyard just fine.

From there we headed to the brand new Black Hoof Disc Golf in Lenexa.

I took each of the first 5 holes and seemed like it might be a blowout. But Burnsy shook off the rust and we tied the next 5 holes. And then on 11, he wins the hole and is now up 6-5 despite winning just one hole. Now it's a ballgame.

After 15 holes, Niraj was still up 8-7. We tied on 16. On 17, we both had putts that were about 10 footers. His hit the front rim, and mine found the chains. So I'm up 9-8 heading into the final hole.

On 18, there was minimal drama and we tied the hole, so that left the final score as 9-8. 

Closest disc golf game I've ever had.

From there we went to Alma Mader brewing and we met up with one of Niraj's friends, Chris. We had a few beers and then had burgers at Green Room for dinner. 

Saturday, Niraj and I took the boys to BRKthrough. This is the place with 30-40 challenge rooms and you're competing to get the high scores.

And sure enough, the four of us earned First Place on the leaderboard.

From there we went to Meat Mitch to load up on KC barbecue.

Seriously fun day out with the kids.

We came back home and regrouped a bit, board games, etc. 

Then for the evening portion, we ventured downtown. We started at Taps on Main, which had a self-service beer wall that we were very into. I got to try 5 different beers and we had some good wings and nachos.

From there we made our way on foot to the Green Lady Lounge, a jazz club I'd always wanted to visit. It was pretty rad.

After two hours of jazz, we went to Tom's Town for a high-end night cap. Kansas City nightlife at its best.

By Sunday, we had done almost everything on our list. 

We started with a little RedZone and a video call with Mark.

Then we went out on what ended up being a sportsbar bar crawl. 

Maloney's was a bust because they didn't have Sunday Ticket (wtf) so we audibled to a nearby Buffalo Wild Wings. 

We saw the end of the Noon games there and the start of the Chiefs game. But in the 2nd quarter we went looking for something a bit livelier. 

We tried Westport Ale House but it was both crowded and charging $15 cover. So then we tried Fountain Haus because we saw a sign promoting a 200" screen which both of us read as 200-foot screen. We go inside and realize it's 200 inches. 

So then we tried Tin Roof and even though it was packed, we secured a table right in front of a giant screen and had the best vibes, no cover. Win.

We watched the 2nd half of Chiefs-Vikings and it was a good game down to the wire, plus a Chiefs win. Not much more you can ask for.

And then we went across the street, to one of my favorite restaurants, and now a Niraj staple, Beer Kitchen. I got the Hogtied sandwich.

Another jam-packed fun visit. Great times!

Week 4 Favorites

Let's take an updated look at the best teams in each conference. Starting in the AFC.

I was sitting in a sportsbook yesterday and saw this graphic:

So it's kinda funny right? Last week, the Dolphins were 3-0 and had just scored 70. So they had a 45% chance of going to the Super Bowl? But after one road game, they're down to 20%. And the Bills took all those odds from them. 

Look, I get it. The Bills were dominant this week, and beat the Dolphins so sure, they're ahead of them. But they also lost Tre White for the year. 

I came into the year thinking that the Chiefs might have a down year, and didn't think they were worth taking in Calcutta factoring in the price tag. But I think the Bills at 40% right now is just as artificial as the Dolphins at 45% last week. Prisoner of the moment. 

Here's the current Vegas odds:

So it's Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins and then a big drop to the Chargers. The Bengals are cooked this year, sorry. Same for Browns without Chubb. I would put the Jaguars above the Bengals, but they haven't looked good yet either. 

If you look at the top 4, we're saying the Chiefs and winner of the AFC East are the top two teams. So we could be headed toward another Bills vs Chiefs playoff game. I don't believe in the Ravens as a real playoff threat. Chargers or Jaguars could win a game but that's about it. 

It will really come down to the health of the Chiefs, Bills and Dolphins. Plus, homefield advantage. Hypothetically, if the Chiefs secure the 1 seed, and the Bills win the East, then the Dolphins would have to go through Buffalo in the cold/snow to reach Arrowhead in the cold. The track meet Dolphins wouldn't be as favored there as they would be if they could secure homefield throughout and make the winner of Chiefs/Bills come to Miami. 

Chiefs play Dolphins on Nov 5. Chiefs play Bills on Dec 10. Bills end the season in Miami.

My take: It's not about which one of these teams is the best, but who gets the #1 seed. (Also, entirely possible the Dolphins just become mediocre, or Chiefs or Bills for that matter.)

NFC

I don't have any ESPN analytics numbers for the NFC, but here's the Vegas odds:

49ers, Eagles and Cowboys all look elite. And look who's the only other team in the mix at less than 10 to 1...the Lions. As much as we all love the Lions, I don't think we can put them on the same level as the other three. 

So it's an eerily similar story in the NFC as the AFC. The 49ers are the best team, also in the West, and the two next best teams are in the East, fighting for the division. 

At this point, I trust the Eagles a lot more than the Cowboys. The Super Bowl Loss Hangover, which used to be my most reliable metric, now doesn't appear to be a thing. 

I think 49ers and Eagles are fighting for the 1 seed but ALSO that either team could win on the road. Cowboys flaming out in the playoffs seems likely. 

At this point, I think the biggest question is where will the 49ers-Eagles NFC Championship game get played.