So this isn't going to be about the Chiefs.
I'm awake in bed at night thinking about how the leagues were named.
You've got your National Football League. National Hockey League.
So you'd think we'd have the National Baseball League and the National Basketball League. But instead of 2 NBLs, we have zero.
Back in 1876, we had the National League of Professional Base Ball Clubs. As much fun as it is to tune into a NLPBBC game, it got shortened to National League. Once the AL came around, they just called the whole thing Major League Baseball. It's always annoyed me when writing about it that in any other sport you can refer to "the league" to talk about all teams at once, and you can't do that for baseball. They don't even have a term for the whole thing. On ESPN, for NFL standings, they have division, conference, league. For MLB, they have division, league, overall.
So NBL was open for basketball, but in 1948 they started the Basketball Association of America. My inference is that they didn't envision themselves as fully baked as a league, so they had a looser term of association. But the association part stuck, when it was later renamed NBA.
Monday, January 14, 2019
Sunday, January 13, 2019
Hoagie Central history on Mahomes
The very first time I ever wrote Mahomes name on this blog was September 12, 2017.
The post was called: QB First Contract Super Bowl Window. The Chiefs had just beaten the defending champs in Foxboro with Alex Smith, but I was already looking forward to Mahomes. The Chiefs had traded up to get him and the fans had seen enough in the 2017 preseason to be excited.
The next time I mentioned him was after the playoff collapse to the Titans. I called him a Pro Bowl level QB and the guy hadn't played a meaningful game in the NFL yet.
Before the Pats lost to Philly Philly, I was writing about the Chiefs Super Bowl window with Mahomes.
In March, I was predicting big things for the KC offense. They just put up the 3rd most points in NFL history.
In April, I was pretty damn spot on in running through the whole schedule.
So yeah, I've been in on Mahomes since the beginning. Feels good. Not so much the being right, just that this is real life.
The post was called: QB First Contract Super Bowl Window. The Chiefs had just beaten the defending champs in Foxboro with Alex Smith, but I was already looking forward to Mahomes. The Chiefs had traded up to get him and the fans had seen enough in the 2017 preseason to be excited.
The next time I mentioned him was after the playoff collapse to the Titans. I called him a Pro Bowl level QB and the guy hadn't played a meaningful game in the NFL yet.
Before the Pats lost to Philly Philly, I was writing about the Chiefs Super Bowl window with Mahomes.
In March, I was predicting big things for the KC offense. They just put up the 3rd most points in NFL history.
In April, I was pretty damn spot on in running through the whole schedule.
So yeah, I've been in on Mahomes since the beginning. Feels good. Not so much the being right, just that this is real life.
What's at stake?
So yes, it's a chance for the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl.
They can win the AFC for the first time ever.
They can hoist the Lamar Hunt Trophy for the first time.
But also...there are steaks at stake.
On May 6, 2011 I made this post.
Mark proposed a bet in the comments. Chiefs vs Lions, which team gets to the Super Bowl first. Winner gets rewarded with a steak dinner at the restaurant of their choosing.
At the time, the Chiefs were coming off a division win with Cassel and Haley. But they were about to crater to 2-14. Of, course nobody knew that Andy Reid would come and Save Our Chiefs.
As for the Lions, their best year was 2014 when they got screwed in the wild-card round vs the Cowboys. They haven't won the Central in the last 8 seasons.
This is the first chance in the 8 years the bet has been active that either one of our teams is playing in the conference championships. Let's eat!
They can win the AFC for the first time ever.
They can hoist the Lamar Hunt Trophy for the first time.
But also...there are steaks at stake.
On May 6, 2011 I made this post.
Mark proposed a bet in the comments. Chiefs vs Lions, which team gets to the Super Bowl first. Winner gets rewarded with a steak dinner at the restaurant of their choosing.
At the time, the Chiefs were coming off a division win with Cassel and Haley. But they were about to crater to 2-14. Of, course nobody knew that Andy Reid would come and Save Our Chiefs.
As for the Lions, their best year was 2014 when they got screwed in the wild-card round vs the Cowboys. They haven't won the Central in the last 8 seasons.
This is the first chance in the 8 years the bet has been active that either one of our teams is playing in the conference championships. Let's eat!
Saturday, January 12, 2019
Exorcising The Demons: Chiefs To Host AFC Championship
I'm going to start with a brainteaser. The Chiefs have been to two Super Bowls. They've won one. How many AFC Championships do they have?
Two is the obvious answer. It's wrong. The answer is zero.
The two Super Bowls the Chiefs went to were SB I and SB IV. The AFL and NFL merged in 1970 which means the first AFC Championship game was played in the 1970-71 season and the winner would play in Super Bowl V.
Which is a long way of getting to the point: In 8 days, two teams will play the 49th AFC Championship game.
It is the second appearance by the Kansas City Chiefs.
It is the first at home, Arrowhead Stadium.
The only other time the Chiefs were in this game was in the 1993-94 playoffs. Joe Montana was the Chiefs QB. (Montana was 37 and got a concussion in the game. He would only play one more season before retiring.) And notably for me, I was a 10-year-old who had just moved away from KC to Peoria. I had been to two Chiefs games in person but didn't have anyone in my life to guide me through what it means to be a fan. When I lived in Peoria, I didn't feel like I had a team. So this is the first AFC Championship game that I get to watch as a Chiefs fan.
By the way, if you're scoring at home, 49 AFC title games means a total of 98 appearances. With 16 teams in the league, each team should expect a little over 6 appearances.
The Ravens have 4 but they were only established in 1995. The Jaguars have 3 since 1993.
The Bills have 5 and the Dolphins and Colts each have 7.
The Broncos, Raiders, Patriots and Steelers are all in double digits.
Then you have the dregs. The Chargers and Jets each have 4. The Browns have 3. The Bengals have 2.
In 8 days, the Chiefs will have 2.
Even Seattle has 1 and they left the AFC in 2002. The Texans have 0 but they started in 2002.
And what's crazy, is that the Chiefs have an all-time winning record. They have more regular season wins than the Raiders. The Chiefs have 40 more wins than losses and the Jets have 90 more losses than wins. The Chiefs should have been to this game more often. But they haven't.
They reason they haven't is a playoff history full of games that have their own name and kickers that can not be named. Three years ago, the Chiefs beat the Texans to win their first playoff game since that aforementioned 93-94 season. They got the playoff win monkey off their back. But another one remained: playoff games at home.
For all the talk of how Arrowhead is the loudest stadium in the NFL and how tough it is it to play there, you wouldn't know it looking at the playoff history.
0-6 at home from 95 to 2017. Colts. Broncos. Colts. Ravens. Steelers. Titans.
Six times in a row a team came to the feared Arrowhead and went on to play another playoff game. A history full of losing by missing kicks, losing as the #1 seed, losing without punting, losing while only allowing field goals, losing by giving up a huge comeback. Losing, losing, losing. Losing in every which way possible. Chiefs fans are scared of playoff games at Arrowhead and with good reason.
When Chiefs fans found out the Colts were coming to town, every single one was nervous. How could you not be?
All week experts were picking Indy. Not giving the Chiefs any respect as a #1 seed. And I didn't blame them.
Indy had been the #1 team by some metrics over the previous 11 weeks. They had come in hot, winning 10 of 11. Their offensive line was perfectly situated to negate the Chiefs defensive strength, the pass rush. The Chiefs defense gave up a historic amount of first downs. The Colts offense gained 26 first downs over the Texans. This was Mahomes first playoff game. Those usually end in losses.
I went back and forth in my mind. I was worried that the Chiefs D would never get a stop. That the Colts could just keep picking up first downs, drive down the field and eat up clock. And then came the weather reports. The biggest snowstorm in 5 years in KC.
This Mahomes offense has yet to play in a dome, but on paper it seems like this fast passing offense is suited better for a dome than anyone. What if it turns into a slippery game where teams need to run the ball? What if the Colts pound the ball like they did against the Texans? Has Mahomes ever in seen snow, let alone play in it? And then came the injury reports. No Ware. No Berry.
When this game kicked off, there was nothing that could surprise me. I was prepared to win or lose big, to come back or blow a lead, to have the game come down to the final play.
The first series for each team set the tone.
Dee Ford tackles Mack for a loss on the game's first play. Colts go 3 and out.
Mahomes goes 3 for 3 to Hill, Kelce, Watkins. Williams runs in the TD. 90 yards in 5 plays.
Another Colts 3 and out, followed by a Chiefs 70-yard TD drive.
Both scoring drives included Mahomes getting the Colts to jump offsides with a hard count. The second one included a 4th down conversion. And the Chiefs kicker made both kicks.
It's the first quarter and it's 14-0 Chiefs. Will this be a repeat of the 2013 or 2018 Chiefs collapse special?
When I was growing up, the two biggest curses in sports were the Red Sox and Cubs not able to win the World Series. They had histories full of folklore and painful playoff moments. Fans believed they were real because they seemed real.
Curses aren't real. But to overcome something that people believe is real, it takes special circumstances. The Red Sox needed to comeback from 0-3 to the Yankees and a Dave Roberts steal. The Cubs needed to go to extra innings after a rain delay in Game 7.
So as a Chiefs fan, even though you know in all parts of your logical brain that curses aren't real, you're bracing for the moments that will test your soul. And boy did they come.
I was expecting a Butker extra point miss. I wasn't expecting Mahomes to get injured.
Soul-Testing Moment #1: With 13 minutes to go in the second quarter, the Colts knock Mahomes down and his knee gets twisted and lands on a helmet. He's limping. You think, this is it. It's only a 14-point lead. With Chad Henne in the game, the Colts will come back. This is awful. But the kid plays on.
Soul-Testing Moment #2: After the Chiefs D had forced four consecutive 3 and outs, the Chiefs punt for the first time. It's blocked. Recovered for a TD. It's now 17-7. The Colts don't have a first down but they have a touchdown. And the Chiefs are supposed to be #1 in special teams DVOA. That hasn't happened all season. But it happens in the playoffs at home.
You think the Chiefs can't blow a 10-point lead?
What does Mahomes do? Throws it to Kelce for 30 yards. Then to Watkins. Hill. Two runs by Williams. On 3rd and 6, he throws it to Kelce for 7. Pass to Williams. Pass to Watkins. Watkins run. And then Mahomes runs it in himself from the 4.
Mahomes was 6 for 6 and gained 73 yards on the 75 yard scoring drive. The drive took the first half under the two minute warning and the Colts used all their timeouts.
Luck and the Colts offense finally got going on the last drive of the first half. It sure looked like it was going to be 24-14 at the half. But they didn't have any timeouts. The Colts drove down to the Chiefs 5 but settled for a field goal attempt on 3rd down. It's a 23-yarder for Vinatieri so it's going to be 24-10 at the half.
And then it happened.
To fully appreciate this moment, you have to understand the history of Chiefs kicking in the playoffs. The long version is this article. The short version is this stat from the article:
Since 1971, both the Chiefs and their opponents have attempted 29 field goals from 0-46 yards in the playoffs.
The Chiefs had made 18 of 29. Their opponents had made all 29.
When I saw that glorious Vinatieri kick hit the upright, I knew this was the game that was going to break the cycle. At halftime, I went outside with my sons to build a snowman.
But just because I had that thought, didn't mean that the Chiefs were in the clear. There would be the Mahomes fumble and then recovery. The Hill fumble and then recovery. And then...
Soul-Testing Moment #3: With 16 minutes to go in the game, Watkins fumbles at the Chiefs 20. It's still 24-7. You think this will be how the Colts make this a game. Their offense can't do anything, but a blocked punt and a fumble recovery will make this a 10 point game.
But then that doesn't happen. Dee Ford knocks the ball away. Justin Houston recovers it. All season, whenever the Chiefs offense have made a rare miscue, the Chiefs D have stepped up their game to get it back for them. As if, we know you've been carrying the team, so we got your back.
The last test? Finishing the game.
The Colts scored to make it 24-13. Over 5 minutes left. Anything could happen. We needed one more good drive to close the deal. Mahomes didn't even have to complete a pass. Damien Williams ran the ball 8 times for 48 yards (plus a little help from a roughing the punter penalty).
And then the game-clinching play:
Mahomes is there to symbolically push the Chiefs over the line.
Two is the obvious answer. It's wrong. The answer is zero.
The two Super Bowls the Chiefs went to were SB I and SB IV. The AFL and NFL merged in 1970 which means the first AFC Championship game was played in the 1970-71 season and the winner would play in Super Bowl V.
Which is a long way of getting to the point: In 8 days, two teams will play the 49th AFC Championship game.
It is the second appearance by the Kansas City Chiefs.
It is the first at home, Arrowhead Stadium.
The only other time the Chiefs were in this game was in the 1993-94 playoffs. Joe Montana was the Chiefs QB. (Montana was 37 and got a concussion in the game. He would only play one more season before retiring.) And notably for me, I was a 10-year-old who had just moved away from KC to Peoria. I had been to two Chiefs games in person but didn't have anyone in my life to guide me through what it means to be a fan. When I lived in Peoria, I didn't feel like I had a team. So this is the first AFC Championship game that I get to watch as a Chiefs fan.
By the way, if you're scoring at home, 49 AFC title games means a total of 98 appearances. With 16 teams in the league, each team should expect a little over 6 appearances.
The Ravens have 4 but they were only established in 1995. The Jaguars have 3 since 1993.
The Bills have 5 and the Dolphins and Colts each have 7.
The Broncos, Raiders, Patriots and Steelers are all in double digits.
Then you have the dregs. The Chargers and Jets each have 4. The Browns have 3. The Bengals have 2.
In 8 days, the Chiefs will have 2.
Even Seattle has 1 and they left the AFC in 2002. The Texans have 0 but they started in 2002.
And what's crazy, is that the Chiefs have an all-time winning record. They have more regular season wins than the Raiders. The Chiefs have 40 more wins than losses and the Jets have 90 more losses than wins. The Chiefs should have been to this game more often. But they haven't.
• • •
They reason they haven't is a playoff history full of games that have their own name and kickers that can not be named. Three years ago, the Chiefs beat the Texans to win their first playoff game since that aforementioned 93-94 season. They got the playoff win monkey off their back. But another one remained: playoff games at home.
For all the talk of how Arrowhead is the loudest stadium in the NFL and how tough it is it to play there, you wouldn't know it looking at the playoff history.
0-6 at home from 95 to 2017. Colts. Broncos. Colts. Ravens. Steelers. Titans.
Six times in a row a team came to the feared Arrowhead and went on to play another playoff game. A history full of losing by missing kicks, losing as the #1 seed, losing without punting, losing while only allowing field goals, losing by giving up a huge comeback. Losing, losing, losing. Losing in every which way possible. Chiefs fans are scared of playoff games at Arrowhead and with good reason.
• • •
When Chiefs fans found out the Colts were coming to town, every single one was nervous. How could you not be?
All week experts were picking Indy. Not giving the Chiefs any respect as a #1 seed. And I didn't blame them.
Indy had been the #1 team by some metrics over the previous 11 weeks. They had come in hot, winning 10 of 11. Their offensive line was perfectly situated to negate the Chiefs defensive strength, the pass rush. The Chiefs defense gave up a historic amount of first downs. The Colts offense gained 26 first downs over the Texans. This was Mahomes first playoff game. Those usually end in losses.
I went back and forth in my mind. I was worried that the Chiefs D would never get a stop. That the Colts could just keep picking up first downs, drive down the field and eat up clock. And then came the weather reports. The biggest snowstorm in 5 years in KC.
This Mahomes offense has yet to play in a dome, but on paper it seems like this fast passing offense is suited better for a dome than anyone. What if it turns into a slippery game where teams need to run the ball? What if the Colts pound the ball like they did against the Texans? Has Mahomes ever in seen snow, let alone play in it? And then came the injury reports. No Ware. No Berry.
When this game kicked off, there was nothing that could surprise me. I was prepared to win or lose big, to come back or blow a lead, to have the game come down to the final play.
• • •
The first series for each team set the tone.
Dee Ford tackles Mack for a loss on the game's first play. Colts go 3 and out.
Mahomes goes 3 for 3 to Hill, Kelce, Watkins. Williams runs in the TD. 90 yards in 5 plays.
Another Colts 3 and out, followed by a Chiefs 70-yard TD drive.
Both scoring drives included Mahomes getting the Colts to jump offsides with a hard count. The second one included a 4th down conversion. And the Chiefs kicker made both kicks.
It's the first quarter and it's 14-0 Chiefs. Will this be a repeat of the 2013 or 2018 Chiefs collapse special?
• • •
When I was growing up, the two biggest curses in sports were the Red Sox and Cubs not able to win the World Series. They had histories full of folklore and painful playoff moments. Fans believed they were real because they seemed real.
Curses aren't real. But to overcome something that people believe is real, it takes special circumstances. The Red Sox needed to comeback from 0-3 to the Yankees and a Dave Roberts steal. The Cubs needed to go to extra innings after a rain delay in Game 7.
So as a Chiefs fan, even though you know in all parts of your logical brain that curses aren't real, you're bracing for the moments that will test your soul. And boy did they come.
I was expecting a Butker extra point miss. I wasn't expecting Mahomes to get injured.
Soul-Testing Moment #1: With 13 minutes to go in the second quarter, the Colts knock Mahomes down and his knee gets twisted and lands on a helmet. He's limping. You think, this is it. It's only a 14-point lead. With Chad Henne in the game, the Colts will come back. This is awful. But the kid plays on.
Soul-Testing Moment #2: After the Chiefs D had forced four consecutive 3 and outs, the Chiefs punt for the first time. It's blocked. Recovered for a TD. It's now 17-7. The Colts don't have a first down but they have a touchdown. And the Chiefs are supposed to be #1 in special teams DVOA. That hasn't happened all season. But it happens in the playoffs at home.
You think the Chiefs can't blow a 10-point lead?
What does Mahomes do? Throws it to Kelce for 30 yards. Then to Watkins. Hill. Two runs by Williams. On 3rd and 6, he throws it to Kelce for 7. Pass to Williams. Pass to Watkins. Watkins run. And then Mahomes runs it in himself from the 4.
Mahomes was 6 for 6 and gained 73 yards on the 75 yard scoring drive. The drive took the first half under the two minute warning and the Colts used all their timeouts.
Luck and the Colts offense finally got going on the last drive of the first half. It sure looked like it was going to be 24-14 at the half. But they didn't have any timeouts. The Colts drove down to the Chiefs 5 but settled for a field goal attempt on 3rd down. It's a 23-yarder for Vinatieri so it's going to be 24-10 at the half.
And then it happened.
• • •
To fully appreciate this moment, you have to understand the history of Chiefs kicking in the playoffs. The long version is this article. The short version is this stat from the article:
Since 1971, both the Chiefs and their opponents have attempted 29 field goals from 0-46 yards in the playoffs.
The Chiefs had made 18 of 29. Their opponents had made all 29.
When I saw that glorious Vinatieri kick hit the upright, I knew this was the game that was going to break the cycle. At halftime, I went outside with my sons to build a snowman.
Adam Vinatieri hits the upright on a 23-yard FG to end the first half.— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) January 12, 2019
Another week, another Doink. pic.twitter.com/vEj8kqIIku
But just because I had that thought, didn't mean that the Chiefs were in the clear. There would be the Mahomes fumble and then recovery. The Hill fumble and then recovery. And then...
Soul-Testing Moment #3: With 16 minutes to go in the game, Watkins fumbles at the Chiefs 20. It's still 24-7. You think this will be how the Colts make this a game. Their offense can't do anything, but a blocked punt and a fumble recovery will make this a 10 point game.
But then that doesn't happen. Dee Ford knocks the ball away. Justin Houston recovers it. All season, whenever the Chiefs offense have made a rare miscue, the Chiefs D have stepped up their game to get it back for them. As if, we know you've been carrying the team, so we got your back.
The last test? Finishing the game.
The Colts scored to make it 24-13. Over 5 minutes left. Anything could happen. We needed one more good drive to close the deal. Mahomes didn't even have to complete a pass. Damien Williams ran the ball 8 times for 48 yards (plus a little help from a roughing the punter penalty).
And then the game-clinching play:
Darrel Williams adds a late TD to give the @Chiefs a 31-13 lead! #LetsRoll— NFL (@NFL) January 13, 2019
📺: #INDvsKC on NBC pic.twitter.com/ouWHok0Mqn
Mahomes is there to symbolically push the Chiefs over the line.
• • •
So there it is. The Chiefs have won a playoff game at Arrowhead for the first time since January 1994. The Chiefs beat the Colts in the playoffs for the first time ever. And instead of carrying losing streaks, they are now starting ones. Mahomes is 1-0 in the playoffs.
By the way, all that talk about the Chiefs defense? The Colts finished 0-9 on 3rd down. The Chiefs D is better at home. They get one more home game to prove it.
By the way, all that talk about the Chiefs defense? The Colts finished 0-9 on 3rd down. The Chiefs D is better at home. They get one more home game to prove it.
Tuesday, January 08, 2019
Red Team Redemption
I've been playing a lot of Red Dead Redemption 2. Yesterday, when I was thinking about the Chiefs path to the Super Bowl, something clicked.
Their first opponent is the Colts. The team that's haunted us specifically in the playoffs the most.
After that is either the Patriots or the Chargers. The Patriots beat the Chiefs this year 43-40 and the Chargers beat the Chiefs 29-28 on that crazy ending.
To get to the Super Bowl, the Chiefs will need to find redemption twice.
And waiting for them? Possibly, the Rams. At one point the Rams and Chiefs were the only undefeated teams. Then the Rams beat the Chiefs 54-51 in the highest scoring game of the year, the game that most people have called the game of the year.
(Now, it could be the Saints or even Eagles or Cowboys.)
But facing the Rams in the Super Bowl would be the ultimate test of redemption on the biggest stage.
Their first opponent is the Colts. The team that's haunted us specifically in the playoffs the most.
After that is either the Patriots or the Chargers. The Patriots beat the Chiefs this year 43-40 and the Chargers beat the Chiefs 29-28 on that crazy ending.
To get to the Super Bowl, the Chiefs will need to find redemption twice.
And waiting for them? Possibly, the Rams. At one point the Rams and Chiefs were the only undefeated teams. Then the Rams beat the Chiefs 54-51 in the highest scoring game of the year, the game that most people have called the game of the year.
(Now, it could be the Saints or even Eagles or Cowboys.)
But facing the Rams in the Super Bowl would be the ultimate test of redemption on the biggest stage.
Sunday, January 06, 2019
Chiefs vs Colts
How do you not start with the history? Like, how would a Chiefs fan hear that playoff matchup and not start thinking about the past. So let's get it out of the way.
The Chiefs are 0-4 vs the Colts in the playoffs.
Five years ago, the Chiefs were up 38-10 in Indy. The Colts would come back to win with the help of a play where Luck runs in a fumble for a TD.
In 2006, the Colts beat the Chiefs but that was an injured Trent Green and Herm Edwards coaching so...
In 2003, the Chiefs earned a bye by going 13-3. This was the infamous no-punt game vs vintage Manning.
And then in 1995, the Chiefs were the #1 seed. The Colts came to Arrowhead in the divisional round. It was 14 degrees in Kansas City. The sideline guy is talking about how the field is frozen and the footballs are frozen. The kicker who should not be named missed from 35, 39 and 42. The Chiefs lost 10-7.
- - -
So you've got a kicker who missed 3, a shootout loss to one of the best QBs of all time, a game where you didn't have a chance, and a comeback that you should have won. That's the history.
- - -
The last loss, Pat Mahomes was in high school. The first one, he was 4 months old.
- - -
In fact, almost the entire rosters have turned over completely. On the Colts side, the players I recognize are Luck and Hilton. On the Chiefs, Houston, Berry and Andy Reid. It's not a lot.
- - -
Colts record vs playoff teams: 2-3
Colts record vs non-playoff teams: 8-3
Chiefs record vs playoff teams: 2-4
Chiefs record vs non-playoff teams: 12-0
Combined points outscored in Colts losses: 46
Combined points outscored in Chiefs losses: 14
- - -
If you're a Colts fan, you could say that both offenses are strong but the Colts D is playing better than the Chiefs. That it could turn into a shootout and you'd rather have the better defense. Or that you believe that winning 5 years ago is good luck.
If you're a Chiefs fan, you could say that a healthy Eric Berry makes this defense better, and they played their best game in week 17 when they needed a win. You could point to the short week for Indy and the extra rest for the Chiefs. That Arrowhead should actually be an advantage one day in the playoffs. But hopefully all we need to say is that we have Pat Mahomes and you don't and that in a shootout or with the game on the line, I'd rather have the MVP than anyone else.
The Chiefs are 0-4 vs the Colts in the playoffs.
Five years ago, the Chiefs were up 38-10 in Indy. The Colts would come back to win with the help of a play where Luck runs in a fumble for a TD.
In 2006, the Colts beat the Chiefs but that was an injured Trent Green and Herm Edwards coaching so...
In 2003, the Chiefs earned a bye by going 13-3. This was the infamous no-punt game vs vintage Manning.
And then in 1995, the Chiefs were the #1 seed. The Colts came to Arrowhead in the divisional round. It was 14 degrees in Kansas City. The sideline guy is talking about how the field is frozen and the footballs are frozen. The kicker who should not be named missed from 35, 39 and 42. The Chiefs lost 10-7.
- - -
So you've got a kicker who missed 3, a shootout loss to one of the best QBs of all time, a game where you didn't have a chance, and a comeback that you should have won. That's the history.
- - -
The last loss, Pat Mahomes was in high school. The first one, he was 4 months old.
- - -
In fact, almost the entire rosters have turned over completely. On the Colts side, the players I recognize are Luck and Hilton. On the Chiefs, Houston, Berry and Andy Reid. It's not a lot.
- - -
Colts record vs playoff teams: 2-3
Colts record vs non-playoff teams: 8-3
Chiefs record vs playoff teams: 2-4
Chiefs record vs non-playoff teams: 12-0
Combined points outscored in Colts losses: 46
Combined points outscored in Chiefs losses: 14
- - -
If you're a Colts fan, you could say that both offenses are strong but the Colts D is playing better than the Chiefs. That it could turn into a shootout and you'd rather have the better defense. Or that you believe that winning 5 years ago is good luck.
If you're a Chiefs fan, you could say that a healthy Eric Berry makes this defense better, and they played their best game in week 17 when they needed a win. You could point to the short week for Indy and the extra rest for the Chiefs. That Arrowhead should actually be an advantage one day in the playoffs. But hopefully all we need to say is that we have Pat Mahomes and you don't and that in a shootout or with the game on the line, I'd rather have the MVP than anyone else.
Tuesday, January 01, 2019
Initial Thoughts on Chiefs Divisional Game
We're now in the postseason and the Chiefs divisional game is scheduled. Here are some initial thoughts.
The Chiefs were given the early Saturday slot. This felt like disrespect to some fans. But...it is the least possible rest for the opponent. If the Texans win on Saturday, the Chiefs will play the winner of Ravens-Chargers which is a Sunday game.
The Chiefs were 10-0 in day games this year. They were 2-4 in night games.
The Eagles were in this time slot last year and won the Super Bowl.
In fact, the home team in this time slot has won the last 5 games.
AFC No. 1 seeds last decade
09 Indy/Manning*
10 NE/Brady
11 NE/Brady*
12 Den/Manning
13 Den/Manning*
14 NE/Brady*
15 Den/Manning*
16 NE/Brady*
17 NE/Brady*
18 KC/Mahomes
* Super Bowl
So in the last 10 years, the only teams that earned the #1 seed had Manning, Brady or Mahomes. And those teams made it to the Super Bowl 7 out of 9 times.
The Chiefs were given the early Saturday slot. This felt like disrespect to some fans. But...it is the least possible rest for the opponent. If the Texans win on Saturday, the Chiefs will play the winner of Ravens-Chargers which is a Sunday game.
The Chiefs were 10-0 in day games this year. They were 2-4 in night games.
The Eagles were in this time slot last year and won the Super Bowl.
In fact, the home team in this time slot has won the last 5 games.
AFC No. 1 seeds last decade
09 Indy/Manning*
10 NE/Brady
11 NE/Brady*
12 Den/Manning
13 Den/Manning*
14 NE/Brady*
15 Den/Manning*
16 NE/Brady*
17 NE/Brady*
18 KC/Mahomes
* Super Bowl
So in the last 10 years, the only teams that earned the #1 seed had Manning, Brady or Mahomes. And those teams made it to the Super Bowl 7 out of 9 times.
Monday, December 31, 2018
The Top Ten of 2018
Just when I thought I was completing another normal, uneventful year...I lost my job in October. Turns out, your life can get turned upside down in a moment. Going through a challenge reminds you of all you have to be thankful for and not take any blessings for granted. Here's to a new year and a more prosperous 2019.
Honorable Mentions
Names
I tried new BBQ places.
I ranked Chiefs seasons.
I stayed up past 3am to watch USA win curling gold.
2016 Proportional Electoral College Results
Scoring in Soccer
Defining My Beer Palate
10. Choose Your Own Trump
I wrote another book and I think it's my best yet.
9. My First Computer
A look back at my introduction to computing 22 years ago.
8. The Bullshit They Feed Us
A response to thoughts and prayers.
7. Dante
I edited my first highlight reel video.
6. Solutions for Eliminating Kickoffs
I always enjoy exploring solutions to sports problems.
5. Niraj Influenza 2018
A long weekend packed with games and food.
4. The Future of Sports
A #longread trying to predict the most popular sports in 50 or 100 years.
3. NFL Preview
I kinda nailed these predictions.
2. Mahomes Magic in Mile High
This year will be remembered for Mahomes breakout season and this was the best post of the bunch.
and the number one realization of 2018.
Honorable Mentions
Names
I tried new BBQ places.
I ranked Chiefs seasons.
I stayed up past 3am to watch USA win curling gold.
2016 Proportional Electoral College Results
Scoring in Soccer
Defining My Beer Palate
10. Choose Your Own Trump
I wrote another book and I think it's my best yet.
9. My First Computer
A look back at my introduction to computing 22 years ago.
8. The Bullshit They Feed Us
A response to thoughts and prayers.
7. Dante
I edited my first highlight reel video.
6. Solutions for Eliminating Kickoffs
I always enjoy exploring solutions to sports problems.
5. Niraj Influenza 2018
A long weekend packed with games and food.
4. The Future of Sports
A #longread trying to predict the most popular sports in 50 or 100 years.
3. NFL Preview
I kinda nailed these predictions.
2. Mahomes Magic in Mile High
This year will be remembered for Mahomes breakout season and this was the best post of the bunch.
and the number one realization of 2018.
Sunday, December 30, 2018
The Mahomes Effect
Patrick Mahomes in his first season as a starting quarterback, became the 2nd QB in NFL History to throw 50 touchdowns and 5000 passing yards. Peyton Manning did it once in 2013. Brady, Brees, Marino, Rodgers have never done it. Mahomes is 1 for 1 on the 50/5000 club.
When you have a QB like this, you're not the only one going to make records.
Tyreek Hill set the Chiefs franchise record for yards in a season.
Travis Kelce set the NFL record for TE yards in a season (Kittle would break Kelce's record an hour later.)
And the Chiefs set a franchise record for points scored. It was also #1 in the NFL season. And #3 in history only behind the 2013 Broncos and 2007 Patriots.
At this point, Mahomes is the heavy favorite to win NFL MVP.
All of this is incredible, career-defining stuff. And then you remember it's his first season and you don't know what to say.
- - -
OH YEAH, and for the first time since I went to high school, the Chiefs are the #1 seed in the AFC. They will have one more game in Arrowhead. If they win that, they host the AFC Championship. They've never hosted the AFC Championship. (The last time the Chiefs went to that game was in Buffalo in 1993-94.)
The Chiefs finished 12-4. The Chargers are 12-4 and the Patriots are 11-5 with the tiebreaker over KC. Which means that for the Chiefs to take the #1 seed, ALL of these things needed to happen:
The Miami Miracle lateral win over the Pats
The Patriots losing to the Lions, Jaguars, Steelers and Titans (all 5 losses to non-playoff teams)
The Ravens beating the Chargers in week 16
That's crazy. The Chiefs needed ALL of that to happen. And all of it did.
So now the Chiefs won't play any road games. They will only have to play one of Texans/Patriots.
The Chargers and Bears also finished 12-4 and are playing wild-card weekend.
They have two weeks to study, get Eric Berry, Kendall Fuller (and maybe Sammy Watkins) healthy. We know anything can happen and the Chiefs carry a history of playoff failures. But then again, hopefully they learned something from the late-game collapse vs the Chargers.
And it's kind of nice to have to be wondering if the MVP can win the Super Bowl instead of wondering if good Alex Smith can show up in January.
When you have a QB like this, you're not the only one going to make records.
Tyreek Hill set the Chiefs franchise record for yards in a season.
Travis Kelce set the NFL record for TE yards in a season (Kittle would break Kelce's record an hour later.)
And the Chiefs set a franchise record for points scored. It was also #1 in the NFL season. And #3 in history only behind the 2013 Broncos and 2007 Patriots.
At this point, Mahomes is the heavy favorite to win NFL MVP.
All of this is incredible, career-defining stuff. And then you remember it's his first season and you don't know what to say.
- - -
OH YEAH, and for the first time since I went to high school, the Chiefs are the #1 seed in the AFC. They will have one more game in Arrowhead. If they win that, they host the AFC Championship. They've never hosted the AFC Championship. (The last time the Chiefs went to that game was in Buffalo in 1993-94.)
The Chiefs finished 12-4. The Chargers are 12-4 and the Patriots are 11-5 with the tiebreaker over KC. Which means that for the Chiefs to take the #1 seed, ALL of these things needed to happen:
The Miami Miracle lateral win over the Pats
The Patriots losing to the Lions, Jaguars, Steelers and Titans (all 5 losses to non-playoff teams)
The Ravens beating the Chargers in week 16
The Broncos last second win over the Chargers in week 11
And 12 Wins by the Chiefs, including the 4th and 9 comeback over the Ravens, the opening win over the Chargers, the Mile High MNF left-handed pass win, and crushing the Raiders today.That's crazy. The Chiefs needed ALL of that to happen. And all of it did.
So now the Chiefs won't play any road games. They will only have to play one of Texans/Patriots.
The Chargers and Bears also finished 12-4 and are playing wild-card weekend.
They have two weeks to study, get Eric Berry, Kendall Fuller (and maybe Sammy Watkins) healthy. We know anything can happen and the Chiefs carry a history of playoff failures. But then again, hopefully they learned something from the late-game collapse vs the Chargers.
And it's kind of nice to have to be wondering if the MVP can win the Super Bowl instead of wondering if good Alex Smith can show up in January.
Monday, December 17, 2018
Chiefs-Chargers: Point/Counterpoint
Point: The Chiefs really screwed up their season by choking away the Chargers game.
Classic Chiefs. A few years ago, they collapsed in the playoffs vs the Colts. Last year they collapsed in playoffs vs the Titans. This time they collapsed with the #1 seed within their grasp. They now have the same record as the Chargers and if they shit the bed against the Raiders, the Chargers will own the tiebreaker. They could have clinched the #1 seed in week 15 and now can't even do that in week 16. If they Chargers win the division, the Chiefs drop to the #5 seed and will have to play every playoff game on the road and don't get a bye. They were one play away from resting up. This kills their playoff hopes.
Counterpoint: The Chiefs season is going to be just fine.
Comebacks happen. The previous week the Chiefs came back vs the Ravens. The Patriots gave up a last second miracle lateral play to the Dolphins. The Bears choked away the week 1 game vs the Packers and still won their division. These things happen. The Chiefs are still in a good position. Normally at this time of year, the Chiefs have to win out and hope for other teams to lose to try to get in or get a bye. This time if they win both they secure home field. If the Chargers lose to the Ravens, the Seahawks game doesn't matter. If they lose to the Broncos, the Raiders game doesn't matter.
Normally, when the Chiefs have a huge collapse, it's in the playoffs and they have to think about it all offseason. Now they have a chance to go out and redeem themselves. They had tough losses to the Patriots and Rams but were able to come back the following week and win. If the Chiefs were bound to have a choke, better to get out of the way in the regular season, not the playoffs.
Besides, it's probably better to play through week 16 and week 17 competitively, and earn a bye, than to rest starters in the regular season anyways. Eric Berry has two more weeks of regular season to shake the rust off before we really need the defense to be at a top level.
Point: This shows the Chiefs can't win the big games.
They lost to the Patriots, Rams and Chargers. Against good teams in close games, the Chiefs don't have what it takes.
Counterpoint: Not so fast.
They beat the Chargers and Steelers and Broncos, all on the road. They broke the Jaguars. They broke the Bengals. Hell, they even seem to have broken Goff and the Rams. They've won close games, comebacks and blowouts. Every team has bad losses.
Point: This one stings though, right?
To be so close and to choke it away to a division rival?
Counterpoint: Sure.
It stings. It may prove fatal. But first of all, they're not even a rival. Second, The Chiefs are 9-1 vs the Chargers in their last 10 games. The Chargers are printing up shirts just for beating the Chiefs in the regular season. We're okay. Plus, no regular season game will ever hurt more than week 2 of 2015. That's when the Chiefs were beating the Broncos by 7, gave up a last minute touchdown and then Charles fumbled away the game in regulation, when I was living in Denver and the Broncos would go on to win the Super Bowl, in part because that win earned them the #1 seed. If the Chargers steal the #1 seed and go on to win the Super Bowl, that will sting but I'm not living in LA, so it still won't be as bad as 2015.
Classic Chiefs. A few years ago, they collapsed in the playoffs vs the Colts. Last year they collapsed in playoffs vs the Titans. This time they collapsed with the #1 seed within their grasp. They now have the same record as the Chargers and if they shit the bed against the Raiders, the Chargers will own the tiebreaker. They could have clinched the #1 seed in week 15 and now can't even do that in week 16. If they Chargers win the division, the Chiefs drop to the #5 seed and will have to play every playoff game on the road and don't get a bye. They were one play away from resting up. This kills their playoff hopes.
Counterpoint: The Chiefs season is going to be just fine.
Comebacks happen. The previous week the Chiefs came back vs the Ravens. The Patriots gave up a last second miracle lateral play to the Dolphins. The Bears choked away the week 1 game vs the Packers and still won their division. These things happen. The Chiefs are still in a good position. Normally at this time of year, the Chiefs have to win out and hope for other teams to lose to try to get in or get a bye. This time if they win both they secure home field. If the Chargers lose to the Ravens, the Seahawks game doesn't matter. If they lose to the Broncos, the Raiders game doesn't matter.
Normally, when the Chiefs have a huge collapse, it's in the playoffs and they have to think about it all offseason. Now they have a chance to go out and redeem themselves. They had tough losses to the Patriots and Rams but were able to come back the following week and win. If the Chiefs were bound to have a choke, better to get out of the way in the regular season, not the playoffs.
Besides, it's probably better to play through week 16 and week 17 competitively, and earn a bye, than to rest starters in the regular season anyways. Eric Berry has two more weeks of regular season to shake the rust off before we really need the defense to be at a top level.
Point: This shows the Chiefs can't win the big games.
They lost to the Patriots, Rams and Chargers. Against good teams in close games, the Chiefs don't have what it takes.
Counterpoint: Not so fast.
They beat the Chargers and Steelers and Broncos, all on the road. They broke the Jaguars. They broke the Bengals. Hell, they even seem to have broken Goff and the Rams. They've won close games, comebacks and blowouts. Every team has bad losses.
Point: This one stings though, right?
To be so close and to choke it away to a division rival?
Counterpoint: Sure.
It stings. It may prove fatal. But first of all, they're not even a rival. Second, The Chiefs are 9-1 vs the Chargers in their last 10 games. The Chargers are printing up shirts just for beating the Chiefs in the regular season. We're okay. Plus, no regular season game will ever hurt more than week 2 of 2015. That's when the Chiefs were beating the Broncos by 7, gave up a last minute touchdown and then Charles fumbled away the game in regulation, when I was living in Denver and the Broncos would go on to win the Super Bowl, in part because that win earned them the #1 seed. If the Chargers steal the #1 seed and go on to win the Super Bowl, that will sting but I'm not living in LA, so it still won't be as bad as 2015.
Friday, December 14, 2018
Thursday, December 13, 2018
Uncharted Territory
I've opened a lot of blog posts to write about the Chiefs. I've never been here.
For starters, the Chiefs are the favorite to go to the Super Bowl in the AFC.
With 3 games to go, they are in a fantastic position to get the #1 seed.
And just for good measure, Mahomes is the favorite to win MVP.
Here's something I've never even had to think about before...was is the best regular season in Chiefs franchise history?
1966. They went 11-2-1 in 14 games for a winning percentage of .821 and went to Super Bowl I.
The best they've done in a 16 game schedule is 13-3 (.813). But 14-2 (.875) is in play. That's right. Mahomes first year as the starter in KC and all of this in play.
- - -
The Chiefs only chance of getting the #1 seed this century was 2003. Both the Chiefs and Pats were 11-2 with 3 games to play.
This year, well it could get really complicated if they lose tonight and really simple if they win, but they're not losing, so let's just skip this part for now and say they're in good shape.
- - -
How did we get here? A whole season just like the Ravens game. That was the most thrilling win of the season, with the other thrilling games coming in their 2 losses.
It featured among other things, a wicked side-arm in a tight window, a freaking no-look pass and a 4th and 9 heave that of course found it's way into Tyreek Hill's arms. All our lives we watch sports and think that we have a chance even if we're down a touchdown and facing 4th and long. And all our lives we realize that's a bad position to be in. And then one day your team drafts Patrick Mahomes and suddenly there's no such thing as a position where you don't have faith in him.
Which brings us to tonight...
let's see anything going on tonight....
Chiefs are wearing red on red
it's a primetime game at Arrowhead
it's a divisional game with the AFC West on the line
Chiefs are riding a 9-game win streak over the Chargers
the Chiefs are inducting Tony Gonzalez into the Ring of Honor and I'm betting he'll be beating the drum during pre-game introductions
and it's the season debut of Eric Berry
For starters, the Chiefs are the favorite to go to the Super Bowl in the AFC.
With 3 games to go, they are in a fantastic position to get the #1 seed.
And just for good measure, Mahomes is the favorite to win MVP.
Here's something I've never even had to think about before...was is the best regular season in Chiefs franchise history?
1966. They went 11-2-1 in 14 games for a winning percentage of .821 and went to Super Bowl I.
The best they've done in a 16 game schedule is 13-3 (.813). But 14-2 (.875) is in play. That's right. Mahomes first year as the starter in KC and all of this in play.
- - -
The Chiefs only chance of getting the #1 seed this century was 2003. Both the Chiefs and Pats were 11-2 with 3 games to play.
This year, well it could get really complicated if they lose tonight and really simple if they win, but they're not losing, so let's just skip this part for now and say they're in good shape.
- - -
How did we get here? A whole season just like the Ravens game. That was the most thrilling win of the season, with the other thrilling games coming in their 2 losses.
It featured among other things, a wicked side-arm in a tight window, a freaking no-look pass and a 4th and 9 heave that of course found it's way into Tyreek Hill's arms. All our lives we watch sports and think that we have a chance even if we're down a touchdown and facing 4th and long. And all our lives we realize that's a bad position to be in. And then one day your team drafts Patrick Mahomes and suddenly there's no such thing as a position where you don't have faith in him.
Which brings us to tonight...
let's see anything going on tonight....
Chiefs are wearing red on red
it's a primetime game at Arrowhead
it's a divisional game with the AFC West on the line
Chiefs are riding a 9-game win streak over the Chargers
the Chiefs are inducting Tony Gonzalez into the Ring of Honor and I'm betting he'll be beating the drum during pre-game introductions
and it's the season debut of Eric Berry
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
AFC Champ QBs
Since 2001 when Tom Brady entered the league, here's a list of AFC Championship appearances by QB:
Brady: 12
Manning: 5
Roethlisberger: 5
Flacco: 3
Sanchez: 2
Stewart: 1
Gannon: 1
McNair: 1
Plummer: 1
Rivers: 1
Luck: 1
Bortles: 1
Trent Green/Matt Cassel/Alex Smith: 0
- - -
A few takeaways:
Brady: 12
Manning: 5
Roethlisberger: 5
Flacco: 3
Sanchez: 2
Stewart: 1
Gannon: 1
McNair: 1
Plummer: 1
Rivers: 1
Luck: 1
Bortles: 1
Trent Green/Matt Cassel/Alex Smith: 0
- - -
A few takeaways:
- Brady is to date, 12 out of 17 for making the AFC title game.
- Brady has more than Manning, Roethlisberger and Rivers combined.
- For all the comments about how Rivers is underrated and jokes about Flacco being elite, Flacco has a leg up on him.
- The Sanchez, Plummer and Bortles appearances makes the Chiefs absence that much more painful.
- Obviously, the team around you shouldn't be overlooked. Roethlisberger has 5 while Rivers only has 1, with their career stats being comparable.
- Extrapolating to what I really care about, if Mahomes is on the level of Roethlisberger/Rivers the range of AFC title appearances could be 1-5. If Mahomes is on the level of Brady/Manning, the range could be 5-12.
- As for Super Bowl appearances, it's Brady 8, Manning 4, Roethlisberger 3, Gannon 1, Flacco 1.
EDIT 1/13/19:
Brady is now 13 out of 18 for making the AFC Championship. That's insane.
Mahomes is 1 for 1.
Friday, November 16, 2018
What have you got to lose?
The Chiefs scored a TD on 3 plays vs the Cardinals.
They scored on their first 3 drives vs the Cardinals.
And yet at the end of the 3rd quarter, the Cardinals had the ball down only 14-20. They had a 4th and 1 from their own 29. There's 16 minutes left in a game that you've never had the lead. You're 2-6. You're options are try to pick up one yard to keep a drive alive to try and take the lead or give the ball back to Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Hunt.
The Cardinals punted and never scored again. (I'm glad they did. Just saying.) Now they're 2-7.
They scored on their first 3 drives vs the Cardinals.
And yet at the end of the 3rd quarter, the Cardinals had the ball down only 14-20. They had a 4th and 1 from their own 29. There's 16 minutes left in a game that you've never had the lead. You're 2-6. You're options are try to pick up one yard to keep a drive alive to try and take the lead or give the ball back to Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Hunt.
The Cardinals punted and never scored again. (I'm glad they did. Just saying.) Now they're 2-7.
The Race for #1
At the start of the year, the Chiefs weren't even the favorite to win their division. Now there's 6 games left before the playoffs and I'm sitting here writing a post about the #1 seed in the AFC.
First, we have to go back. The last time the Chiefs were the #1 seed in the AFC was 1997. They were eliminated by the Broncos who would go on to win the Super Bowl. (The other two teams in the divisional round? Patriots and Steelers.)
The last time the Chiefs played in the AFC Championship? 1993. It's also the only time since we're not counting the AFL Championship in 1970. That team had Joe Montana and Marcus Allen and won two playoff games before losing to Buffalo.
The last time the Chiefs were in this position, with a clear path to the #1 seed was 2003. Through ten games they were 9-1. The Patriots were 8-2. The Chiefs finished 13-3 but the Patriots won out and got the #1 seed. As #2, Chiefs had to face Manning and the Colts while the Patriots hosted McNair and Eddie George on the Titans. (That Chiefs team had Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Dante Hall and Tony G.) That's a long time ago. And yet, in 2018 and in 2003, the Chiefs are battling Tom Brady for home field advantage in the playoffs.
- - -
At this point, lots of things could happen. The Chargers only have one more loss than KC and get to face to the Chiefs one more time. So it's possible the Chiefs could finish 13-3 and be the 5th seed. (Might even be possible to finish 14-2 and be the 5th seed depending on tiebreakers with the Chargers.) But for now, let's assume the Chiefs will win the division.
Based on their schedules, I think the Steelers will drop a couple games and be the #3 seed. In my head, it's a race between the Chiefs and Pats for the top two seeds. The loser gets to face the Steelers in the divisional round. The winner gets one of Chargers/Texans/Bengals/Titans or worse. Plus, the home field in a potential AFC title game.
The Pats losing to the Titans on Sunday was huge. That gives New England two more losses than the Chiefs. Pats have the tiebreaker so the Chiefs margin for error is one game.
That's what makes the MNF game vs the Rams so important. Not because it's a potential Super Bowl matchup. Every game is important. The Chiefs have a one-game cushion. Lose on Monday and it's gone.
First, we have to go back. The last time the Chiefs were the #1 seed in the AFC was 1997. They were eliminated by the Broncos who would go on to win the Super Bowl. (The other two teams in the divisional round? Patriots and Steelers.)
The last time the Chiefs played in the AFC Championship? 1993. It's also the only time since we're not counting the AFL Championship in 1970. That team had Joe Montana and Marcus Allen and won two playoff games before losing to Buffalo.
The last time the Chiefs were in this position, with a clear path to the #1 seed was 2003. Through ten games they were 9-1. The Patriots were 8-2. The Chiefs finished 13-3 but the Patriots won out and got the #1 seed. As #2, Chiefs had to face Manning and the Colts while the Patriots hosted McNair and Eddie George on the Titans. (That Chiefs team had Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Dante Hall and Tony G.) That's a long time ago. And yet, in 2018 and in 2003, the Chiefs are battling Tom Brady for home field advantage in the playoffs.
- - -
At this point, lots of things could happen. The Chargers only have one more loss than KC and get to face to the Chiefs one more time. So it's possible the Chiefs could finish 13-3 and be the 5th seed. (Might even be possible to finish 14-2 and be the 5th seed depending on tiebreakers with the Chargers.) But for now, let's assume the Chiefs will win the division.
Based on their schedules, I think the Steelers will drop a couple games and be the #3 seed. In my head, it's a race between the Chiefs and Pats for the top two seeds. The loser gets to face the Steelers in the divisional round. The winner gets one of Chargers/Texans/Bengals/Titans or worse. Plus, the home field in a potential AFC title game.
The Pats losing to the Titans on Sunday was huge. That gives New England two more losses than the Chiefs. Pats have the tiebreaker so the Chiefs margin for error is one game.
That's what makes the MNF game vs the Rams so important. Not because it's a potential Super Bowl matchup. Every game is important. The Chiefs have a one-game cushion. Lose on Monday and it's gone.
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