It was posted by reddit user flyman01. (Don't know how old he is, but he's a flyfisher who's been married for 35 years.) There he is near Reliance, TN, smoking ribs on an Akorn, drinking Maker's Mark and enjoying the sunset.
More recently, I took on a freelance writing project that involved me interviewing 5 people from Highlands, NC and writing stories about them. Turns out Highlands is a hidden gem that people stumble across and never leave.
So seeing these posts, I now have long-term goals of learning how to smoke meat and either living or at least visiting these parts of Eastern Tennessee/Western North Carolina.
I've thought about grilling/smoking more often, but for my health I need to lose weight, not eat more meat. But boy, this is enticing.
Before you know it I'm on youtube looking at pros and cons of owning a truck camper. So many things to do, so little time.
1000 on Texans to win division at +185 WIN. PAYOUT = $2850 (includes original 1000 staked)
1000 on Chiefs to win division at +265 WIN. PAYOUT = $3650
1000 on Steelers to win division at -230 LOSS
1000 on Patriots to win division at -800 WIN. PAYOUT = $1125
1000 on Saints to win division at +155 WIN. PAYOUT = $2550
1000 on Rams to win division at -160 WIN. PAYOUT = $1625
1000 on Cowboys to win division at +375 WIN. PAYOUT = $4750
1000 on Packers to win division at +140 LOSS
1000 on Saints to get to the Super Bowl at +900 LOSS
1000 on Steelers to get to the Super Bowl at +450 LOSS
Payout = 16,550
Original Stake = 10,000 Result = UP 6,550
Method B
$500 on 49ers +300 LOSS
$500 on Cowboys +375 WIN. PAYOUT = $2375
$500 on Chiefs +265 WIN. PAYOUT = $1825
Then load up on heavy favorites:
$3000 on Patriots -800 WIN. PAYOUT = $3375
$4000 on Steelers -230 LOSS
Then some fliers on making the Super Bowl:
$200 on Chiefs +1400 LOSS
$300 on 49ers +1100 LOSS
$500 on Saints +900 LOSS
$500 on Falcons +1000 LOSS
Payout = 7,575
Original Stake = 10,000 Result = DOWN 2,425
Method C
1000 on Chiefs to win division +140 WIN. PAYOUT = $2400 1000 on Rams to win division -290 WIN. PAYOUT = $1344 2000 on Chiefs to win division +130 WIN. PAYOUT = $4600
1000 on Patriots to win division at -300 WIN. PAYOUT = $1333
500 on Rams to win NFC at +250 WIN. PAYOUT = $1750
1000 on Chiefs to win AFC at +210 LOSS 1000 on Pats to win AFC at +230 WIN. PAYOUT = $3300 500 on Ravens to win division at +350 WIN. PAYOUT = $2250 2000 on Chiefs to win division at -900 WIN. PAYOUT = $2222
Payout = 19,199
Original Stake = 10,000
Result = UP 9,199
Takeaways
Loading up on heavy favorites is never worth it. Method B lost a bunch on the Steelers. Method C came close to losing a -900 bet on the Chiefs when the Chargers came roaring back. And even when it wins, it's so paltry. Never do this again.
Trying to predict a Super Bowl team before the season starts is a fool's errand. I went 0 for 6.
There is value in picking division winners 1 and 2 weeks into the season. Before the season, Chiefs were +265. At 2-0 with wins over Chargers and Steelers, they were +130. Obviously the odds were better before, but +130 is still a nice value.
You do have to be careful though, I thought Jaguars were a lock for a playoff team after 2 weeks. Luckily I didn't put anything on them at -160.
At the end of November I put 1000 on Chiefs and Pats to make the Super Bowl with both having odds over +200. That move profited 1300 and never was really in doubt.
My flier on the Ravens came through and was based on the Steelers tough schedule to close the season.
Before the season starts, pick division winners only and look for the teams +150 to +400. I didn't feel confident in the Cowboys per se, but I knew the Super Bowl hangover was real and didn't trust Giants or Washington. +375 was great value for Cowboys.
Mark correctly predicted Method A was better than Method B. (Method C came later)
Every Chiefs fan wanted Bob Sutton fired. They also wanted him replaced with someone who would be aggressive. They wanted an up and coming hire with fresh ideas.
Andy Reid wanted (I'm inferring here) someone who has extensive DC experience and someone that he trusts.
- - -
He knows how to coach a Super Bowl winning defense.
He knows how to beat Tom Brady in the playoffs. That 2007 Pats offense is the gold standard for offenses. They were 18-0. Then 18-1. Considering the Patriots beat the Chiefs twice this year and we will likely have to play them twice next year, knowing how to pressure Tom Brady is a good thing.
He's been a DC before in two stints with the Giants and had success both times. He was DC for a year with the Saints following Bountygate, and they were a mess. I'm willing to overlook that as the team was a mess and the Saints were not known to have good defensive players.
I'm not expecting Chiefs to have a top ten defense. But I do think that they're going to have an influx of defensive draft picks. And if they can get a middle of the pack defense that would make them the team to beat in the AFC.
Look, this hire isn't flashy, like a national champion winning college DC or a young hotshot DB coach. It's someone who has experience running a defense and someone who has a Super Bowl ring. The ceiling might not be super high like some Chiefs wanted, but I think there's less risk too.
If you were GM of the Broncos or Bucs, you probably want to take the risk on a first-time DC with the hope that you can build a top-5 defense. But if you're the Chiefs and you have 1-2 more years of Mahomes rookie contract, you want to contend for the Super Bowl this upcoming year. You don't want a risky hire, you want someone that has proven success and someone that you trust.
- - -
Also, he could suck. But I'm a Chiefs fan and it's the offseason and we have Pat Mahomes. So I'm going to put on my red and gold colored glasses and choose to believe that Andy Reid and Brett Veach know more about the NFL and what it takes to win than an entire army of Twitter followers.
Red Dead Redemption 2 was one of my most anticipated games ever. I remember how exciting it was to play through the first game eight years ago. Robbing banks, searching for treasure, hunting, getting surprised by a bear attack. I got RDR2 and probably put around 100 hours into it. I loved my time in the world. And yet...I have complaints.
The shooting isn't that great or fun. This has been a complaint for a longtime with Rockstar games who do so many things well. Auto-aim isn't fun but the game is built for auto-aim. I turned it off and enjoyed the shooting more. But then I had to turn it on for some hunting challenges and then ended leaving it on as missions started sending 100 people to kill. It feels like you have to use auto-aim. (Personally, I think the game would be more interesting there was no auto aim and far less enemies. Make each death feel important.) Also, Dead Eye became unsatisfying and too easy. But you felt like you had to use it when 20 enemies are spawned at once.
The biggest complaint is probably the lack of freedom. Both in missions and overall. The missions force you to play in exactly the way the designers demand. Do you want to try to flank out wide and sneak around the back? Nope, you're too far outside the mission area. In the middle of a stealth section, do you see a chance to shoot enemies or create a diversion? Nope, you can only do stealth right now, even though in 5 seconds your character will create a diversion in a cut scene. This lack of freedom is also evident when you try to turn off the radar and discover it's impossible to complete a mission because you have to go to specific spots marked only on the map, as seen in this video.
This next complaint could apply to any game, but it's never really come up before. I didn't like the choices that my character was making in the story. But they never gave me options to do what I wanted.
Also the missions are repetitive, not just in this game but across all Rockstar games. How many times are we going to do something allegedly simple and then get surprised when it goes wrong and it turns into a shootout. If I was on the team, I would say next game we don't get to do that once. Then see how creative you can get to have different missions.
The honor system. First, it doesn't make sense to lose honor for killing/looting a body in the middle of nowhere with no witnesses. That would mean that honor is something that Arthur feels about himself. But shopkeepers treat you differently based upon your honor as if it's your reputation. The reality is that honor is a system outside the world of New Hanover and is a system for the video game. And the more times you're reminded it's a game, you lose immersion.
These next 4 complaints are slightly spoilery. You've been warned.
After you complete the game's story, you unlock an entire new section of the map. It's the map from the first game. This feels like a complete wasted opportunity. This area just feels super empty. No missions or anything really worth exploring. There's no reason why this map couldn't have been incorporated halfway though the story.
Unless of course, it was designed that way for continuity. Which leads me to my next complaint. You see, this is a prequel. And that causes all kinds of story problems. Especially when you have big missions that put people in danger...when you know those characters are alive in RDR. We know they make it. There's no tension there.
As for Arthur's story...I suppose it's subjective, but I didn't care for basically anything in Chapter 6.
ALSO, for all this love that Arthur gets as an amazing character, there really was never any tension in his story either. At one point, you're on a debt collecting mission and the options are (cancel the debt or cancel the debt and give them money). What if I don't want to cancel the debt?! The story makes you into a honorable person (who happens to have killed 1000 men).
So with all these complaints, why did I love my time in the game and play it so much? It does a lot of things right. The world is great. I loved the challenges, the hunting, the exploring, collecting treasure maps, upgrading my camp.
Except it manages to bungle that too...you get too much money so you can upgrade your camp fully pretty quickly on. And then the challenges are prickly. Collect 15 plants. Okay. Done. Now collect all 43. We won't give you credit for collecting the first 15 or have a system of telling you which ones you've already collected. So just wander around forever picking every plant you see. Now you've collected 22 plants. Good luck knowing which ones you still need to collect, we won't tell you.
If it was a shitty game, I'd say oh well and move on. But this game is great. So to see so many flaws in a game that is this good, is more frustrating than flaws in an average game.
Chiefs are a top 3 team. Lions are a bottom 5 team. A burger bet between the two records seems kind of unnecessary. So we're adding a wrinkle.
Until further notice, the burger bet is now regular season record + record against the spread.
It wouldn't have made a difference this year, because the Chiefs and Lions were both about the same, although the Lions were better ATS than the Chiefs.
However, in this system the Browns ended better than the Eagles, despite finishing 2 games behind in the standings. This system is designed to punish favorites and reward underdogs that have a surprising season, so it should at least give the Lions a better shot. (I'll even make the caveat that if the Lions have the better record than the Chiefs, than the ATS stuff is unnecessary--I'll honor that victory.)
Hypothesis: The Chiefs defense could help the team more even if they allowed points at the same rate, but failed/succeeded quicker.
For a long time, the Chiefs have operated under a bend but don't break defense. The idea behind this is to not allow big plays. In exchange, you allow short gains and try to hold them to field goals in the red zone.
What this looks like: Chiefs were 31st in yards allowed, 24th in points allowed. Since points are what matters on the scoreboard, that's the ranking that matters more. (Obviously you'd love it if you were a top-5 team in points allowed, middle of the pack in yards allowed, but that's not the point I'm trying to make.)
And as expected, the Chiefs defense ranks 30th in allowing time/drive.
This year the Chiefs offense was 1st in points per drive, averaging 3.25. (Also 1st in yards/drive.)
This year the Chiefs defense was 28th in points allowed per drive, averaging 2.41.
For every offensive and defensive series, the 2018 Chiefs came out .84 points ahead. (That net was #2 behind only the Saints.)
So the more possessions you get, the more chances you give the #1 offense, the more chances you give the #28 defense, the better off you are. (In fact, the Raiders had the worst defense in points/drive and they were only at 2.61. Because the Chiefs offense is more of an outlier than even the worst defense, you want to give them more possessions.)
So my advice to a new Defensive Coordinator, take more risks. Send more people after the QB. Allowing the occasional big play is worth it. You might fail just as often, but at least it will be quicker.
Sunday is the most important Chiefs game I've ever seen.
- - -
This the Patriots 8th straight AFC Championship Game. That's incredible. Every other team can only dream of that success.
In the last 7 years of this game, the Patriots were 4-1 at home. 0-2 on the road.
This year the Patriots were 8-0 at home, 3-5 on the road.
There have been lots of moments this year when they Patriots didn't look that great. And then there was Sunday where they had the game won in the 2nd quarter.
- - -
Belichick and Brady have played Reid's Chiefs 4 times and you can interpret them in any way you see fit.
The Chiefs won the only game at Arrowhead.
The Patriots won the only game vs Mahomes.
The Chiefs were the only team to win on the road.
The Patriots won the only game to win in the playoffs.
All four apply on Sunday, so the history doesn't point to a clear advantage.
- - -
I know these are rare.
Aaron Rodgers went to the Super Bowl in his 3rd year. He's now played 11 seasons and hasn't been back.
The Dolphins had Marino from '83 to '99 and went to exactly one Super Bowl, his second season.
Rivers hasn't made it to the AFC Championship game in 13 seasons.
The point is, you can't take anything for granted and assume you're going to get a Tom Brady like run of Super Bowl appearances just because you have a great QB.
Can I go back to that for a second though? Mahomes is 23 and has already gotten the Chiefs farther than Rivers has gotten the Chargers and he's 37. That's nuts.
But despite how rare these chances are, no matter what happens this weekend, I'm happy with the season. I wouldn't have been with another first round playoff bounce. But Mahomes got the team over the home playoff hump and into the first AFC Championship game of my life.
(If they lose this week, then the bar becomes making the Super Bowl. If that ever happens, the bar becomes winning it. There's only two more steps possible. And they're both up for grabs in the next two games.)
- - -
Probably no one has noticed, but over the last couple years, I've been predicting the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl or at least the AFC title game. I've been making posts like this in:
I didn't really do that this year. I talked about earning home-field for a potential rematch vs the Patriots, but didn't predict it was going to happen. And now it's here. And the Chiefs did get home-field. And they're the favorite. And it kinda seems like they should win.
- - -
Look, if the Patriots win, well, they're good. Brady and Belichick and everyone else has set the standard. Tip of the cap. Mahomes will have more chances. One day he won't be competing with Brady anymore. (I think Mahomes vs Watson could be the new Brady vs Manning) He'll be competing against Watson, Luck, Mayfield, Jackson, and then one day against kids that are still in high school right now.
But if the Chiefs win, they become the team to beat in the AFC for the next 10 years, starting right now. Not that they can make 8 straight title games like the Pats, but 4 or 5 out of 10 is on the table.
(They also have 2 more years left on Mahomes rookie contract, so if I was the GM, I would be thinking about how to get a top 10 defense to pair with Mahomes, but what do I know?)
- - -
Sunday is the most important Chiefs game I've ever seen. Hopefully, in a month it's #2.
I'm awake in bed at night thinking about how the leagues were named.
You've got your National Football League. National Hockey League.
So you'd think we'd have the National Baseball League and the National Basketball League. But instead of 2 NBLs, we have zero.
Back in 1876, we had the National League of Professional Base Ball Clubs. As much fun as it is to tune into a NLPBBC game, it got shortened to National League. Once the AL came around, they just called the whole thing Major League Baseball. It's always annoyed me when writing about it that in any other sport you can refer to "the league" to talk about all teams at once, and you can't do that for baseball. They don't even have a term for the whole thing. On ESPN, for NFL standings, they have division, conference, league. For MLB, they have division, league, overall.
So NBL was open for basketball, but in 1948 they started the Basketball Association of America. My inference is that they didn't envision themselves as fully baked as a league, so they had a looser term of association. But the association part stuck, when it was later renamed NBA.
The very first time I ever wrote Mahomes name on this blog was September 12, 2017.
The post was called: QB First Contract Super Bowl Window. The Chiefs had just beaten the defending champs in Foxboro with Alex Smith, but I was already looking forward to Mahomes. The Chiefs had traded up to get him and the fans had seen enough in the 2017 preseason to be excited.
The next time I mentioned him was after the playoff collapse to the Titans. I called him a Pro Bowl level QB and the guy hadn't played a meaningful game in the NFL yet.
Before the Pats lost to Philly Philly, I was writing about the Chiefs Super Bowl window with Mahomes.
So yes, it's a chance for the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl.
They can win the AFC for the first time ever.
They can hoist the Lamar Hunt Trophy for the first time.
Mark proposed a bet in the comments. Chiefs vs Lions, which team gets to the Super Bowl first. Winner gets rewarded with a steak dinner at the restaurant of their choosing.
At the time, the Chiefs were coming off a division win with Cassel and Haley. But they were about to crater to 2-14. Of, course nobody knew that Andy Reid would come and Save Our Chiefs.
As for the Lions, their best year was 2014 when they got screwed in the wild-card round vs the Cowboys. They haven't won the Central in the last 8 seasons.
This is the first chance in the 8 years the bet has been active that either one of our teams is playing in the conference championships. Let's eat!
I'm going to start with a brainteaser. The Chiefs have been to two Super Bowls. They've won one. How many AFC Championships do they have?
Two is the obvious answer. It's wrong. The answer is zero.
The two Super Bowls the Chiefs went to were SB I and SB IV. The AFL and NFL merged in 1970 which means the first AFC Championship game was played in the 1970-71 season and the winner would play in Super Bowl V.
Which is a long way of getting to the point: In 8 days, two teams will play the 49th AFC Championship game.
It is the second appearance by the Kansas City Chiefs.
It is the first at home, Arrowhead Stadium.
The only other time the Chiefs were in this game was in the 1993-94 playoffs. Joe Montana was the Chiefs QB. (Montana was 37 and got a concussion in the game. He would only play one more season before retiring.) And notably for me, I was a 10-year-old who had just moved away from KC to Peoria. I had been to two Chiefs games in person but didn't have anyone in my life to guide me through what it means to be a fan. When I lived in Peoria, I didn't feel like I had a team. So this is the first AFC Championship game that I get to watch as a Chiefs fan.
By the way, if you're scoring at home, 49 AFC title games means a total of 98 appearances. With 16 teams in the league, each team should expect a little over 6 appearances.
The Ravens have 4 but they were only established in 1995. The Jaguars have 3 since 1993.
The Bills have 5 and the Dolphins and Colts each have 7.
The Broncos, Raiders, Patriots and Steelers are all in double digits.
Then you have the dregs. The Chargers and Jets each have 4. The Browns have 3. The Bengals have 2.
In 8 days, the Chiefs will have 2.
Even Seattle has 1 and they left the AFC in 2002. The Texans have 0 but they started in 2002.
And what's crazy, is that the Chiefs have an all-time winning record. They have more regular season wins than the Raiders. The Chiefs have 40 more wins than losses and the Jets have 90 more losses than wins. The Chiefs should have been to this game more often. But they haven't.
• • •
They reason they haven't is a playoff history full of games that have their own name and kickers that can not be named. Three years ago, the Chiefs beat the Texans to win their first playoff game since that aforementioned 93-94 season. They got the playoff win monkey off their back. But another one remained: playoff games at home.
For all the talk of how Arrowhead is the loudest stadium in the NFL and how tough it is it to play there, you wouldn't know it looking at the playoff history.
0-6 at home from 95 to 2017. Colts. Broncos. Colts. Ravens. Steelers. Titans.
Six times in a row a team came to the feared Arrowhead and went on to play another playoff game. A history full of losing by missing kicks, losing as the #1 seed, losing without punting, losing while only allowing field goals, losing by giving up a huge comeback. Losing, losing, losing. Losing in every which way possible. Chiefs fans are scared of playoff games at Arrowhead and with good reason.
• • •
When Chiefs fans found out the Colts were coming to town, every single one was nervous. How could you not be?
All week experts were picking Indy. Not giving the Chiefs any respect as a #1 seed. And I didn't blame them.
Indy had been the #1 team by some metrics over the previous 11 weeks. They had come in hot, winning 10 of 11. Their offensive line was perfectly situated to negate the Chiefs defensive strength, the pass rush. The Chiefs defense gave up a historic amount of first downs. The Colts offense gained 26 first downs over the Texans. This was Mahomes first playoff game. Those usually end in losses.
I went back and forth in my mind. I was worried that the Chiefs D would never get a stop. That the Colts could just keep picking up first downs, drive down the field and eat up clock. And then came the weather reports. The biggest snowstorm in 5 years in KC.
This Mahomes offense has yet to play in a dome, but on paper it seems like this fast passing offense is suited better for a dome than anyone. What if it turns into a slippery game where teams need to run the ball? What if the Colts pound the ball like they did against the Texans? Has Mahomes ever in seen snow, let alone play in it? And then came the injury reports. No Ware. No Berry.
When this game kicked off, there was nothing that could surprise me. I was prepared to win or lose big, to come back or blow a lead, to have the game come down to the final play.
• • •
The first series for each team set the tone.
Dee Ford tackles Mack for a loss on the game's first play. Colts go 3 and out.
Mahomes goes 3 for 3 to Hill, Kelce, Watkins. Williams runs in the TD. 90 yards in 5 plays.
Another Colts 3 and out, followed by a Chiefs 70-yard TD drive.
Both scoring drives included Mahomes getting the Colts to jump offsides with a hard count. The second one included a 4th down conversion. And the Chiefs kicker made both kicks.
It's the first quarter and it's 14-0 Chiefs. Will this be a repeat of the 2013 or 2018 Chiefs collapse special?
• • •
When I was growing up, the two biggest curses in sports were the Red Sox and Cubs not able to win the World Series. They had histories full of folklore and painful playoff moments. Fans believed they were real because they seemed real.
Curses aren't real. But to overcome something that people believe is real, it takes special circumstances. The Red Sox needed to comeback from 0-3 to the Yankees and a Dave Roberts steal. The Cubs needed to go to extra innings after a rain delay in Game 7.
So as a Chiefs fan, even though you know in all parts of your logical brain that curses aren't real, you're bracing for the moments that will test your soul. And boy did they come.
I was expecting a Butker extra point miss. I wasn't expecting Mahomes to get injured.
Soul-Testing Moment #1: With 13 minutes to go in the second quarter, the Colts knock Mahomes down and his knee gets twisted and lands on a helmet. He's limping. You think, this is it. It's only a 14-point lead. With Chad Henne in the game, the Colts will come back. This is awful. But the kid plays on.
Soul-Testing Moment #2: After the Chiefs D had forced four consecutive 3 and outs, the Chiefs punt for the first time. It's blocked. Recovered for a TD. It's now 17-7. The Colts don't have a first down but they have a touchdown. And the Chiefs are supposed to be #1 in special teams DVOA. That hasn't happened all season. But it happens in the playoffs at home.
You think the Chiefs can't blow a 10-point lead?
What does Mahomes do? Throws it to Kelce for 30 yards. Then to Watkins. Hill. Two runs by Williams. On 3rd and 6, he throws it to Kelce for 7. Pass to Williams. Pass to Watkins. Watkins run. And then Mahomes runs it in himself from the 4.
Mahomes was 6 for 6 and gained 73 yards on the 75 yard scoring drive. The drive took the first half under the two minute warning and the Colts used all their timeouts.
Luck and the Colts offense finally got going on the last drive of the first half. It sure looked like it was going to be 24-14 at the half. But they didn't have any timeouts. The Colts drove down to the Chiefs 5 but settled for a field goal attempt on 3rd down. It's a 23-yarder for Vinatieri so it's going to be 24-10 at the half.
And then it happened.
• • •
To fully appreciate this moment, you have to understand the history of Chiefs kicking in the playoffs. The long version is this article. The short version is this stat from the article:
Since 1971, both the Chiefs and their opponents have attempted 29 field goals from 0-46 yards in the playoffs.
The Chiefs had made 18 of 29. Their opponents had made all 29.
When I saw that glorious Vinatieri kick hit the upright, I knew this was the game that was going to break the cycle. At halftime, I went outside with my sons to build a snowman.
Adam Vinatieri hits the upright on a 23-yard FG to end the first half.
But just because I had that thought, didn't mean that the Chiefs were in the clear. There would be the Mahomes fumble and then recovery. The Hill fumble and then recovery. And then...
Soul-Testing Moment #3: With 16 minutes to go in the game, Watkins fumbles at the Chiefs 20. It's still 24-7. You think this will be how the Colts make this a game. Their offense can't do anything, but a blocked punt and a fumble recovery will make this a 10 point game.
But then that doesn't happen. Dee Ford knocks the ball away. Justin Houston recovers it. All season, whenever the Chiefs offense have made a rare miscue, the Chiefs D have stepped up their game to get it back for them. As if, we know you've been carrying the team, so we got your back.
The last test? Finishing the game.
The Colts scored to make it 24-13. Over 5 minutes left. Anything could happen. We needed one more good drive to close the deal. Mahomes didn't even have to complete a pass. Damien Williams ran the ball 8 times for 48 yards (plus a little help from a roughing the punter penalty).
And then the game-clinching play:
Darrel Williams adds a late TD to give the @Chiefs a 31-13 lead! #LetsRoll
Mahomes is there to symbolically push the Chiefs over the line.
• • •
So there it is. The Chiefs have won a playoff game at Arrowhead for the first time since January 1994. The Chiefs beat the Colts in the playoffs for the first time ever. And instead of carrying losing streaks, they are now starting ones. Mahomes is 1-0 in the playoffs.
By the way, all that talk about the Chiefs defense? The Colts finished 0-9 on 3rd down. The Chiefs D is better at home. They get one more home game to prove it.
I've been playing a lot of Red Dead Redemption 2. Yesterday, when I was thinking about the Chiefs path to the Super Bowl, something clicked.
Their first opponent is the Colts. The team that's haunted us specifically in the playoffs the most.
After that is either the Patriots or the Chargers. The Patriots beat the Chiefs this year 43-40 and the Chargers beat the Chiefs 29-28 on that crazy ending.
To get to the Super Bowl, the Chiefs will need to find redemption twice.
And waiting for them? Possibly, the Rams. At one point the Rams and Chiefs were the only undefeated teams. Then the Rams beat the Chiefs 54-51 in the highest scoring game of the year, the game that most people have called the game of the year.
(Now, it could be the Saints or even Eagles or Cowboys.)
But facing the Rams in the Super Bowl would be the ultimate test of redemption on the biggest stage.
How do you not start with the history? Like, how would a Chiefs fan hear that playoff matchup and not start thinking about the past. So let's get it out of the way.
The Chiefs are 0-4 vs the Colts in the playoffs.
Five years ago, the Chiefs were up 38-10 in Indy. The Colts would come back to win with the help of a play where Luck runs in a fumble for a TD.
In 2006, the Colts beat the Chiefs but that was an injured Trent Green and Herm Edwards coaching so...
In 2003, the Chiefs earned a bye by going 13-3. This was the infamous no-punt game vs vintage Manning.
And then in 1995, the Chiefs were the #1 seed. The Colts came to Arrowhead in the divisional round. It was 14 degrees in Kansas City. The sideline guy is talking about how the field is frozen and the footballs are frozen. The kicker who should not be named missed from 35, 39 and 42. The Chiefs lost 10-7.
- - -
So you've got a kicker who missed 3, a shootout loss to one of the best QBs of all time, a game where you didn't have a chance, and a comeback that you should have won. That's the history.
- - -
The last loss, Pat Mahomes was in high school. The first one, he was 4 months old.
- - -
In fact, almost the entire rosters have turned over completely. On the Colts side, the players I recognize are Luck and Hilton. On the Chiefs, Houston, Berry and Andy Reid. It's not a lot.
- - -
Colts record vs playoff teams: 2-3
Colts record vs non-playoff teams: 8-3
Chiefs record vs playoff teams: 2-4
Chiefs record vs non-playoff teams: 12-0
Combined points outscored in Colts losses: 46
Combined points outscored in Chiefs losses: 14
- - -
If you're a Colts fan, you could say that both offenses are strong but the Colts D is playing better than the Chiefs. That it could turn into a shootout and you'd rather have the better defense. Or that you believe that winning 5 years ago is good luck.
If you're a Chiefs fan, you could say that a healthy Eric Berry makes this defense better, and they played their best game in week 17 when they needed a win. You could point to the short week for Indy and the extra rest for the Chiefs. That Arrowhead should actually be an advantage one day in the playoffs. But hopefully all we need to say is that we have Pat Mahomes and you don't and that in a shootout or with the game on the line, I'd rather have the MVP than anyone else.
We're now in the postseason and the Chiefs divisional game is scheduled. Here are some initial thoughts.
The Chiefs were given the early Saturday slot. This felt like disrespect to some fans. But...it is the least possible rest for the opponent. If the Texans win on Saturday, the Chiefs will play the winner of Ravens-Chargers which is a Sunday game.
The Chiefs were 10-0 in day games this year. They were 2-4 in night games.
The Eagles were in this time slot last year and won the Super Bowl.
In fact, the home team in this time slot has won the last 5 games.
AFC No. 1 seeds last decade
09 Indy/Manning*
10 NE/Brady
11 NE/Brady*
12 Den/Manning
13 Den/Manning*
14 NE/Brady*
15 Den/Manning*
16 NE/Brady*
17 NE/Brady*
18 KC/Mahomes
* Super Bowl
So in the last 10 years, the only teams that earned the #1 seed had Manning, Brady or Mahomes. And those teams made it to the Super Bowl 7 out of 9 times.
