How To Build a Winning Bracket (Advice for Next Year)

When it was time to make a bracket, I searched in vain through my own archives for a post that would help me build a winning bracket. I found no post. I lost. 

So this year, I made 12 different brackets, partially for fun, partially to experiment and see what it takes to build a winning bracket. Currently with the title game yet to be played, my brackets range from the 4th percentile to the 96th. 

I'm going to go round by round and look at the best bracket I made, compare it to what I submitted as my primary bracket, and see how I can replicate the success in the future. 

Best First Round: 538 chalk: 240 points

Upsets picked: one 9 over an 8, one 10 over a 7

Results of upset picks: 2/2

Results of chalk picks: 22/30

Total for first round: 24/32

My First Round: Backyard Dunks: 190 points

Upsets picked: 9, 13, 10, 12, 11, 12, 10

Results of upset picks: 2/7

Results of chalk picks: 17/25

Total for first round: 19/32

It's hard to pick upsets. It's so tempting when you know there will be some. And it's fun when you get it right. I had UCLA over BYU and Ohio over Virginia. But I also missed on 5 upsets, plus all the upsets I didn't pick. It's best to go conservative early. 

Best Second Round: (tie) 160 points

Mostly BPI  2nd round picks:

1532 1462 1562 1532

Home Cookin' 2nd round picks

1562 1432 1462 1432

Backyard Dunks 2nd round picks

1532 1432 1462 1462

So my Backyard Dunks bracket got 6/16 correct, while the top two both got 8/16.  All the brackets in question picked the 1 seeds and 2 seeds to get to the sweet 16. So it really came down to which 4/5 and which 3/6 to go with. 

Best Sweet 16: 538 chalk 160 points

This bracket picked all 1 seeds and 2 seeds to advance to the elite eight and it was 4/8, which is the best I could do. Harrison used a combination of 1-3 and 1-2 to get 5/8 of correct. 

I used 1-2, 1-3, 1-2, 1-6 and only got 2/8 correct. Going with 1-2 to make every elite eight is more boring, but is going to give you the best chances here. 

Best Elite 8: I had two brackets that got Gonzaga-Baylor-Houston correct in this round, 3/4. 

Their final fours were 1-3-1-2 and 1-2-1-2. The correct answer was 1-11-1-2. 

My final four of 1-3-2-1 was in the ballpark but only got one correct. 

In the top quadrants, it's makes sense to go with the 1 seeds to make the final four as they're the two best teams overall. 

In the bottom, might as well pick the 2 seed.

Let's test that quick theory: The last 5 years, the 1 seeds on top of the bracket are 5/10 to reach the final four. 

The last 5 years, the 1 seeds on the bottom of the bracket are 3/10 to reach the final four. 

Best Final Four: 

In the last five years, every title game has featured at least one 1 seed, twice it's been both. 

How to fill out my bracket in the future. 

Start by filling out an Elite Eight that is 1-2 in every region. 

Final Four should probably have the 1 seeds on top advancing, probably a 2 from the bottom. 

Picking your title game and winner, stick to the team that was strongest all year, not someone who got hot recently.

In the Sweet Sixteen should stick to the 4/5 and the 3/6, and lean towards 3s. 

The Second Round should have hardly any upsets, literally just look at the 8-9s probably. 

Now just to keep these notes secret so only I can see them.