Harrison won the bracket for his second time, despite Mark getting 320 points for Virginia winning it all. Before the title game he was in the top 2600 out of 17.2 million brackets.
Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Monday, April 08, 2019
A Study in Bracketology
Shea Serrano pulled together a massive list of prizes for his women's bracket contest and got over 13,000 entries in his group alone. I knew the odds of winning were slim, but since the limit on entering brackets was 25, I wanted to see if I could at least get a perfect Final Four, Championship Round, and Champion.
There were 6 teams likely to make the Final Four. That made it pretty easy. I submitted 12 brackets.
The end results are skewed by all the ones picking Baylor jumping to the top. The column to watch is actually the one marked E8. This round consists of 4 games, each worth 80 points. Of my 12 brackets, 2 had all four games correct. (The others had a combination of the four that made it, plus Miss St and Louisville. Once Baylor and ND made it to the Final Four, I was covered no matter what happened in the other games.)
But that's just the Final Four. Of the 2 brackets, that had that correct, I had two remaining scenarios covered: Baylor over Notre Dame and Notre Dame over Baylor. Luckily, those teams met in the Championship. You can see the 2 brackets that earned 320 in E8 also earned 320 in F4.
Once that happened, I was covered either way. The question was would the points go to bracket #8 or bracket #4.
With only 6 teams in contention for the Final Four and two teams heavily favored to meet each other, I only needed 8 brackets to finish 320-320-320. (Brackets 9-12 were covering the bases of the other more unlikely scenarios.)
So I managed to finish 136th out of 13,000+. Not bad.
By comparison, the winner got 100 more points. 6 more games correct in the first three rounds.
There were 6 teams likely to make the Final Four. That made it pretty easy. I submitted 12 brackets.
The end results are skewed by all the ones picking Baylor jumping to the top. The column to watch is actually the one marked E8. This round consists of 4 games, each worth 80 points. Of my 12 brackets, 2 had all four games correct. (The others had a combination of the four that made it, plus Miss St and Louisville. Once Baylor and ND made it to the Final Four, I was covered no matter what happened in the other games.)
But that's just the Final Four. Of the 2 brackets, that had that correct, I had two remaining scenarios covered: Baylor over Notre Dame and Notre Dame over Baylor. Luckily, those teams met in the Championship. You can see the 2 brackets that earned 320 in E8 also earned 320 in F4.
Once that happened, I was covered either way. The question was would the points go to bracket #8 or bracket #4.
With only 6 teams in contention for the Final Four and two teams heavily favored to meet each other, I only needed 8 brackets to finish 320-320-320. (Brackets 9-12 were covering the bases of the other more unlikely scenarios.)
So I managed to finish 136th out of 13,000+. Not bad.
By comparison, the winner got 100 more points. 6 more games correct in the first three rounds.
Thursday, March 21, 2019
March Madness Calcutta What Ifs?
I thought it would be fun to go through the transcript and explore some what ifs.
Matt really wanted Duke and went up to 10, but Mark went to 10.25.
I went up to 3.50 for the 9 seeds, but Matt went to 3.60
Mark bid 1.10 on Virgina Tech after it was sold to Niraj for 1. It's a good team at a low price but they're in the Duke bracket. Could be a crazy steal.
Matt got Kansas for 1.75...another possible steal.
Iowa State for 1.3 is another steal, but I already had too many teams in that region
I didn't want LSU but got a 3 seed for 1.55
Pick I was excited about was Nevada for .90
The last big what if was the 11 seeds. I really wanted them for Belmont and St Mary's....but Matt and I were the only teams with money left. So I decided that either I would get them, or I would make Matt use all his money and I could take what's left.
I could have probably gotten Louisville, Wisconsin and Marquette if Matt had outbid me for the 11s.
And my very last pick, I got Miss State over the 15 seeds.
Friday, March 01, 2019
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
A Super Bowl Caliber Team
In a given year, there might be 4 or 5 Super Bowl Caliber teams for only 2 spots. Last season, I think it's safe to say there were 4 SB Caliber teams. The two that made it, plus the Saints and Chiefs were both one play away. The Bears were a kicker away from finding out if they were in the conversation. The Chargers were more than a few plays away. (The year before, the Eagles and Pats were SB Caliber, but also the Jags and Saints were one play away.)
Which goes to show that you can build a Super Bowl Caliber team, but that doesn't mean you're going to win it or even make the game. The Saints have seen their Super Bowl hopes end on fluke plays in back to back years. But the goal is to do what the Patriots have done. If you have a SB Caliber team for 4 years, hopefully you make at least 2 and win at least 1. If you can build a SB Caliber team for almost 20 years, that's how you build a dynasty.
When you think of building a SB Caliber team on paper, usually we think of what the Rams did last year, bringing in multiple great free agents. Sometimes that doesn't work (Eagles 2011 Dream Team) but last year, the Rams won the offseason and then went to the Super Bowl. But another way of building a top team is through the coaches. The Patriots success belongs to Brady's Offense and Belichick's defense. Usually they're both pretty great. Sometimes one is hall of fame level, which can carry the other side.
- - -
First they got the DL coach from the Patriots, Brendan Daly. You know, the defense that just won the Super Bowl by allowing 3 points.
And DB coach Merritt, who's also won Super Bowls.
I don't claim to be an expert on defensive fronts, but I like what I see:
Based on this, I feel like Chiefs could absolutely be a top 15, maybe top 10 defense next year. That might sound crazy from where we were last year, but the Chiefs D has good players. I think these coaches will make a serious difference.
You pair that with a top 5 offense (last year Chiefs were #1) and that's a Super Bowl Caliber team. Doesn't guarantee they make it or win it. But you have a chance.
- - -
The Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl.
Which goes to show that you can build a Super Bowl Caliber team, but that doesn't mean you're going to win it or even make the game. The Saints have seen their Super Bowl hopes end on fluke plays in back to back years. But the goal is to do what the Patriots have done. If you have a SB Caliber team for 4 years, hopefully you make at least 2 and win at least 1. If you can build a SB Caliber team for almost 20 years, that's how you build a dynasty.
When you think of building a SB Caliber team on paper, usually we think of what the Rams did last year, bringing in multiple great free agents. Sometimes that doesn't work (Eagles 2011 Dream Team) but last year, the Rams won the offseason and then went to the Super Bowl. But another way of building a top team is through the coaches. The Patriots success belongs to Brady's Offense and Belichick's defense. Usually they're both pretty great. Sometimes one is hall of fame level, which can carry the other side.
- - -
A couple weeks ago, I wrote about the Chiefs new DC Spags. I noted that while he's not an up and coming younger guy, he brings a lot to the table. Well, Spags has brought in up and coming guys who were sought-after candidates for Defensive Coordinator positions.
And DB coach Merritt, who's also won Super Bowls.
And then they added Matt House, the guy that turned around Kentucky's defense.
I don't claim to be an expert on defensive fronts, but I like what I see:
Based on this, I feel like Chiefs could absolutely be a top 15, maybe top 10 defense next year. That might sound crazy from where we were last year, but the Chiefs D has good players. I think these coaches will make a serious difference.
You pair that with a top 5 offense (last year Chiefs were #1) and that's a Super Bowl Caliber team. Doesn't guarantee they make it or win it. But you have a chance.
- - -
The Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl.
Wednesday, February 06, 2019
Tuesday, February 05, 2019
The Farthest I've Ever Seen The Chiefs Go
Let's start here. Here are the Quarterbacks that have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl since Brady started playing. (It's easier to do QBs than teams because Peyton switched teams.)
01-02 - Brady
02-03 - Gannon
03-04 - Brady
04-05 - Brady
05-06 - Roethlisberger
06-07 - Manning
07-08 - Brady
08-09 - Roethlisberger
09-10 - Manning
10-11 - Roethlisberger
11-12 - Brady
12-13 - Flacco
13-14 - Manning
14-15 - Brady
15-16 - Manning
16-17 - Brady
17-18 - Brady
18-19 - Brady
Since Brady has entered the league, it's either been him or Peyton or Big Ben, plus one year of Flacco and one year of Gannon. In a league of parity, that's crazy. On the other side, only Wilson and Eli have multiple appearances.
(And just for fun, Brady has won MVP three times. Those years he is 0-2 in the Super Bowl.)
- - -
You hear the question a lot in sports conversations: "Would you take this?" It's usually in the context of "If I had told you before the season that the Chiefs would go 6-1 in their first seven, would you take this?" Now I think I've figured out what that means, but I don't know that I've ever heard it fully explained.
As in, what is the opposite of not taking it? Well the opposite would be to let the season play out and be stuck with the results. (Of course, fans are always in this boat. We're always stuck with the results. We never get a chance to take any of these hypotheticals.
So before the 2018-2019 season, if you had offered me two scenarios:
Scenario A: The Chiefs were going to host the AFC Championship in Arrowhead and lose.
Scenario B: Let the season play out. Chiefs could finish anywhere from first to last in the league.
I would have picked Scenario A. That means that we won a playoff game, I got to see them in the AFC Championship for the first time, they get to host the AFC Championship for the first time and that Mahomes must be pretty good.
All of this is true. I'm happy with the season.
- - -
In 2012, Russel Wilson went to the playoffs in his first season as a starter. The Seahawks went 1-1 in the playoffs that year. The next year they came back and made it to the Super Bowl and won it, 43-8 over the shitty Broncos.
In 2014, the Kansas City Royals went to the World Series. They lost. The next year they came back and won it all.
Sometimes people say that playoff experience is important. Well, if it is or isn't, the Chiefs got some good experience this year.
I've always sort of imagined that this might happen one step at a time. Which means the Chiefs might have to get to the Super Bowl and lose before they can go and win.
- - -
There's also the case that this needed to happen. If they beat the Patriots and go to the Super Bowl and the defense plays great but they still lose (let's say to the Saints, lol) maybe Andy Reid feels like he can't fire Bob Sutton. And then it keeps going on for years, where Sutton's D costs Mahomes best Super Bowl window.
And yep, the Patriots are still the team to beat. Tom Brady will be 42 next season and says he wants to play to 45. So maybe it was best in the long run to lose this one, fire Sutton, replace with Spags who's had Super Bowl success against Brady.
- - -
If you asked me this year, would you take a Super Bowl appearance and loss or would you let it play out...I'd let it play out. The bar has been raised.
- - -
With a minute to go in the AFC Championship, there was a brief moment where I thought "the Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl." Here is that moment:
This play could have been known as Ward's Interception. Or Brady's 3rd pick. But instead it's known as Dee Ford offsides.
It's crazy how perceptions are formed, legends are written, on fragile circumstances. I've written this before how if the helmet catch doesn't happen, Tom Brady gets to 19-0.
Well, if Dee Ford scoots back a foot, Brady throws three picks and is blamed. Gronk is blamed. They're both washed up.
The previous Pats Super Bowl win was the Falcons comeback. The Falcons really should have held on to that one. And the one before that was the Seahawks passing from the 1.
You change three plays. Dee Ford. Falcons sack. Seahawks pass. Now the Patriots haven't won a Super Bowl since the 2004 season. It would be 6 straight Super Bowl losses for them. How different a legacy for Brady and Belichick, if you change 3 plays.
(Of course, it's just as easy to go the other way. Change the helmet catch, change one play from Giants in 2011, change Philly Special. Now the Pats are 9-0 in Super Bowls, including 19-0. Barf. Legends are written based on what happens, not what could have been.)
- - -
Another thing about the Dee Ford play...this wasn't the Super Bowl. I know, it would have put the Chiefs there. And the Rams looked shitty against the Pats, but you never know. This cost them a chance at a title, not the title itself. There are plays in week 11 or sometimes 4 that cost you a chance at a title.
What I'm trying to say, it's not as hurtful as it would have been in the actual Super Bowl. It's not the Falcons collapse or the Bills wide right. (Honestly, I don't know how a Falcons fan doesn't walk away after that game.)
- - -
Back in November I posted this list of QBs to make an appearance in the AFC Championship game. This was back when it looked like the Chargers might bump the Chiefs to the 5th seed.
Brady: 12
Manning: 5
Roethlisberger: 5
Flacco: 3
Sanchez: 2
Stewart: 1
Gannon: 1
McNair: 1
Plummer: 1
Rivers: 1
Luck: 1
Bortles: 1
Trent Green/Matt Cassel/Alex Smith: 0
Well now it's time to make updates.
Brady: 13 out of 18 seasons
Mahomes: 1 out of 1 season
01-02 - Brady
02-03 - Gannon
03-04 - Brady
04-05 - Brady
05-06 - Roethlisberger
06-07 - Manning
07-08 - Brady
08-09 - Roethlisberger
09-10 - Manning
10-11 - Roethlisberger
11-12 - Brady
12-13 - Flacco
13-14 - Manning
14-15 - Brady
15-16 - Manning
16-17 - Brady
17-18 - Brady
18-19 - Brady
Since Brady has entered the league, it's either been him or Peyton or Big Ben, plus one year of Flacco and one year of Gannon. In a league of parity, that's crazy. On the other side, only Wilson and Eli have multiple appearances.
(And just for fun, Brady has won MVP three times. Those years he is 0-2 in the Super Bowl.)
- - -
You hear the question a lot in sports conversations: "Would you take this?" It's usually in the context of "If I had told you before the season that the Chiefs would go 6-1 in their first seven, would you take this?" Now I think I've figured out what that means, but I don't know that I've ever heard it fully explained.
As in, what is the opposite of not taking it? Well the opposite would be to let the season play out and be stuck with the results. (Of course, fans are always in this boat. We're always stuck with the results. We never get a chance to take any of these hypotheticals.
So before the 2018-2019 season, if you had offered me two scenarios:
Scenario A: The Chiefs were going to host the AFC Championship in Arrowhead and lose.
Scenario B: Let the season play out. Chiefs could finish anywhere from first to last in the league.
I would have picked Scenario A. That means that we won a playoff game, I got to see them in the AFC Championship for the first time, they get to host the AFC Championship for the first time and that Mahomes must be pretty good.
All of this is true. I'm happy with the season.
- - -
In 2012, Russel Wilson went to the playoffs in his first season as a starter. The Seahawks went 1-1 in the playoffs that year. The next year they came back and made it to the Super Bowl and won it, 43-8 over the shitty Broncos.
In 2014, the Kansas City Royals went to the World Series. They lost. The next year they came back and won it all.
Sometimes people say that playoff experience is important. Well, if it is or isn't, the Chiefs got some good experience this year.
I've always sort of imagined that this might happen one step at a time. Which means the Chiefs might have to get to the Super Bowl and lose before they can go and win.
- - -
There's also the case that this needed to happen. If they beat the Patriots and go to the Super Bowl and the defense plays great but they still lose (let's say to the Saints, lol) maybe Andy Reid feels like he can't fire Bob Sutton. And then it keeps going on for years, where Sutton's D costs Mahomes best Super Bowl window.
And yep, the Patriots are still the team to beat. Tom Brady will be 42 next season and says he wants to play to 45. So maybe it was best in the long run to lose this one, fire Sutton, replace with Spags who's had Super Bowl success against Brady.
- - -
If you asked me this year, would you take a Super Bowl appearance and loss or would you let it play out...I'd let it play out. The bar has been raised.
- - -
With a minute to go in the AFC Championship, there was a brief moment where I thought "the Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl." Here is that moment:
This play could have been known as Ward's Interception. Or Brady's 3rd pick. But instead it's known as Dee Ford offsides.
It's crazy how perceptions are formed, legends are written, on fragile circumstances. I've written this before how if the helmet catch doesn't happen, Tom Brady gets to 19-0.
Well, if Dee Ford scoots back a foot, Brady throws three picks and is blamed. Gronk is blamed. They're both washed up.
The previous Pats Super Bowl win was the Falcons comeback. The Falcons really should have held on to that one. And the one before that was the Seahawks passing from the 1.
You change three plays. Dee Ford. Falcons sack. Seahawks pass. Now the Patriots haven't won a Super Bowl since the 2004 season. It would be 6 straight Super Bowl losses for them. How different a legacy for Brady and Belichick, if you change 3 plays.
(Of course, it's just as easy to go the other way. Change the helmet catch, change one play from Giants in 2011, change Philly Special. Now the Pats are 9-0 in Super Bowls, including 19-0. Barf. Legends are written based on what happens, not what could have been.)
- - -
Another thing about the Dee Ford play...this wasn't the Super Bowl. I know, it would have put the Chiefs there. And the Rams looked shitty against the Pats, but you never know. This cost them a chance at a title, not the title itself. There are plays in week 11 or sometimes 4 that cost you a chance at a title.
What I'm trying to say, it's not as hurtful as it would have been in the actual Super Bowl. It's not the Falcons collapse or the Bills wide right. (Honestly, I don't know how a Falcons fan doesn't walk away after that game.)
- - -
Back in November I posted this list of QBs to make an appearance in the AFC Championship game. This was back when it looked like the Chargers might bump the Chiefs to the 5th seed.
Brady: 12
Manning: 5
Roethlisberger: 5
Flacco: 3
Sanchez: 2
Stewart: 1
Gannon: 1
McNair: 1
Plummer: 1
Rivers: 1
Luck: 1
Bortles: 1
Trent Green/Matt Cassel/Alex Smith: 0
Well now it's time to make updates.
Brady: 13 out of 18 seasons
Mahomes: 1 out of 1 season
Mahomes MVP
Youngest NFL MVP since Marino in 84. That's the company Mahomes is in now.
And Chiefs get their first MVP which means they are no longer on this list:
So now and forever, if you ever here a Chiefs fan chanting M-V-P, there's only one person we're thinking of.
And Chiefs get their first MVP which means they are no longer on this list:
So now and forever, if you ever here a Chiefs fan chanting M-V-P, there's only one person we're thinking of.
Sunday, January 27, 2019
Squad Goals
This post stirred up some things.
It was posted by reddit user flyman01. (Don't know how old he is, but he's a flyfisher who's been married for 35 years.) There he is near Reliance, TN, smoking ribs on an Akorn, drinking Maker's Mark and enjoying the sunset.
More recently, I took on a freelance writing project that involved me interviewing 5 people from Highlands, NC and writing stories about them. Turns out Highlands is a hidden gem that people stumble across and never leave.
So seeing these posts, I now have long-term goals of learning how to smoke meat and either living or at least visiting these parts of Eastern Tennessee/Western North Carolina.
I've thought about grilling/smoking more often, but for my health I need to lose weight, not eat more meat. But boy, this is enticing.
Before you know it I'm on youtube looking at pros and cons of owning a truck camper. So many things to do, so little time.
Ribs
It was posted by reddit user flyman01. (Don't know how old he is, but he's a flyfisher who's been married for 35 years.) There he is near Reliance, TN, smoking ribs on an Akorn, drinking Maker's Mark and enjoying the sunset.
More recently, I took on a freelance writing project that involved me interviewing 5 people from Highlands, NC and writing stories about them. Turns out Highlands is a hidden gem that people stumble across and never leave.
So seeing these posts, I now have long-term goals of learning how to smoke meat and either living or at least visiting these parts of Eastern Tennessee/Western North Carolina.
I've thought about grilling/smoking more often, but for my health I need to lose weight, not eat more meat. But boy, this is enticing.
Before you know it I'm on youtube looking at pros and cons of owning a truck camper. So many things to do, so little time.
Friday, January 25, 2019
NFL Sportsbook 2018 Recap
This year I did three different methods of NFL futures betting.
Method A was the simplest, trying to predict each division winner.
Method B was looking for value.
Method C was ongoing wagers throughout the season.
Time to see which one was best.
Method A
Payout = 16,550
Original Stake = 10,000
Result = UP 6,550
Method B
Payout = 7,575
Original Stake = 10,000
Result = DOWN 2,425
Method C
1000 on Chiefs to win division +140 WIN. PAYOUT = $2400
1000 on Rams to win division -290 WIN. PAYOUT = $1344
2000 on Chiefs to win division +130 WIN. PAYOUT = $4600
Method A was the simplest, trying to predict each division winner.
Method B was looking for value.
Method C was ongoing wagers throughout the season.
Time to see which one was best.
Method A
1000 on Texans to win division at +185 WIN. PAYOUT = $2850 (includes original 1000 staked)
1000 on Chiefs to win division at +265 WIN. PAYOUT = $3650
1000 on Steelers to win division at -230 LOSS
1000 on Patriots to win division at -800 WIN. PAYOUT = $1125
1000 on Saints to win division at +155 WIN. PAYOUT = $2550
1000 on Rams to win division at -160 WIN. PAYOUT = $1625
1000 on Cowboys to win division at +375 WIN. PAYOUT = $4750
1000 on Packers to win division at +140 LOSS
1000 on Saints to get to the Super Bowl at +900 LOSS
1000 on Steelers to get to the Super Bowl at +450 LOSS
Payout = 16,550
Original Stake = 10,000
Result = UP 6,550
Method B
$500 on 49ers +300 LOSS
$500 on Cowboys +375 WIN. PAYOUT = $2375
$500 on Chiefs +265 WIN. PAYOUT = $1825
Then load up on heavy favorites:
$3000 on Patriots -800 WIN. PAYOUT = $3375
$4000 on Steelers -230 LOSS
Then some fliers on making the Super Bowl:
$200 on Chiefs +1400 LOSS
$300 on 49ers +1100 LOSS
$500 on Saints +900 LOSS
$500 on Falcons +1000 LOSS
Payout = 7,575
Original Stake = 10,000
Result = DOWN 2,425
Method C
1000 on Chiefs to win division +140 WIN. PAYOUT = $2400
1000 on Rams to win division -290 WIN. PAYOUT = $1344
2000 on Chiefs to win division +130 WIN. PAYOUT = $4600
1000 on Patriots to win division at -300 WIN. PAYOUT = $1333
500 on Rams to win NFC at +250 WIN. PAYOUT = $1750
1000 on Chiefs to win AFC at +210 LOSS
1000 on Pats to win AFC at +230 WIN. PAYOUT = $3300
500 on Ravens to win division at +350 WIN. PAYOUT = $2250
2000 on Chiefs to win division at -900 WIN. PAYOUT = $2222
1000 on Pats to win AFC at +230 WIN. PAYOUT = $3300
500 on Ravens to win division at +350 WIN. PAYOUT = $2250
2000 on Chiefs to win division at -900 WIN. PAYOUT = $2222
Payout = 19,199
Original Stake = 10,000
Result = UP 9,199
Takeaways
- Loading up on heavy favorites is never worth it. Method B lost a bunch on the Steelers. Method C came close to losing a -900 bet on the Chiefs when the Chargers came roaring back. And even when it wins, it's so paltry. Never do this again.
- Trying to predict a Super Bowl team before the season starts is a fool's errand. I went 0 for 6.
- There is value in picking division winners 1 and 2 weeks into the season. Before the season, Chiefs were +265. At 2-0 with wins over Chargers and Steelers, they were +130. Obviously the odds were better before, but +130 is still a nice value.
- You do have to be careful though, I thought Jaguars were a lock for a playoff team after 2 weeks. Luckily I didn't put anything on them at -160.
- At the end of November I put 1000 on Chiefs and Pats to make the Super Bowl with both having odds over +200. That move profited 1300 and never was really in doubt.
- My flier on the Ravens came through and was based on the Steelers tough schedule to close the season.
- Before the season starts, pick division winners only and look for the teams +150 to +400. I didn't feel confident in the Cowboys per se, but I knew the Super Bowl hangover was real and didn't trust Giants or Washington. +375 was great value for Cowboys.
- Mark correctly predicted Method A was better than Method B. (Method C came later)
Thursday, January 24, 2019
Spags.
Every Chiefs fan wanted Bob Sutton fired. They also wanted him replaced with someone who would be aggressive. They wanted an up and coming hire with fresh ideas.
Andy Reid wanted (I'm inferring here) someone who has extensive DC experience and someone that he trusts.
- - -
He knows how to coach a Super Bowl winning defense.
He knows how to beat Tom Brady in the playoffs. That 2007 Pats offense is the gold standard for offenses. They were 18-0. Then 18-1. Considering the Patriots beat the Chiefs twice this year and we will likely have to play them twice next year, knowing how to pressure Tom Brady is a good thing.
He's been a DC before in two stints with the Giants and had success both times. He was DC for a year with the Saints following Bountygate, and they were a mess. I'm willing to overlook that as the team was a mess and the Saints were not known to have good defensive players.
I'm not expecting Chiefs to have a top ten defense. But I do think that they're going to have an influx of defensive draft picks. And if they can get a middle of the pack defense that would make them the team to beat in the AFC.
He needs to be aggressive. When he fails, he needs to fail fast.
Look, this hire isn't flashy, like a national champion winning college DC or a young hotshot DB coach. It's someone who has experience running a defense and someone who has a Super Bowl ring. The ceiling might not be super high like some Chiefs wanted, but I think there's less risk too.
If you were GM of the Broncos or Bucs, you probably want to take the risk on a first-time DC with the hope that you can build a top-5 defense. But if you're the Chiefs and you have 1-2 more years of Mahomes rookie contract, you want to contend for the Super Bowl this upcoming year. You don't want a risky hire, you want someone that has proven success and someone that you trust.
- - -
Also, he could suck. But I'm a Chiefs fan and it's the offseason and we have Pat Mahomes. So I'm going to put on my red and gold colored glasses and choose to believe that Andy Reid and Brett Veach know more about the NFL and what it takes to win than an entire army of Twitter followers.
Red Dead Redemption 2
Red Dead Redemption 2 was one of my most anticipated games ever. I remember how exciting it was to play through the first game eight years ago. Robbing banks, searching for treasure, hunting, getting surprised by a bear attack. I got RDR2 and probably put around 100 hours into it. I loved my time in the world. And yet...I have complaints.
The shooting isn't that great or fun. This has been a complaint for a longtime with Rockstar games who do so many things well. Auto-aim isn't fun but the game is built for auto-aim. I turned it off and enjoyed the shooting more. But then I had to turn it on for some hunting challenges and then ended leaving it on as missions started sending 100 people to kill. It feels like you have to use auto-aim. (Personally, I think the game would be more interesting there was no auto aim and far less enemies. Make each death feel important.) Also, Dead Eye became unsatisfying and too easy. But you felt like you had to use it when 20 enemies are spawned at once.
The biggest complaint is probably the lack of freedom. Both in missions and overall. The missions force you to play in exactly the way the designers demand. Do you want to try to flank out wide and sneak around the back? Nope, you're too far outside the mission area. In the middle of a stealth section, do you see a chance to shoot enemies or create a diversion? Nope, you can only do stealth right now, even though in 5 seconds your character will create a diversion in a cut scene. This lack of freedom is also evident when you try to turn off the radar and discover it's impossible to complete a mission because you have to go to specific spots marked only on the map, as seen in this video.
This next complaint could apply to any game, but it's never really come up before. I didn't like the choices that my character was making in the story. But they never gave me options to do what I wanted.
Also the missions are repetitive, not just in this game but across all Rockstar games. How many times are we going to do something allegedly simple and then get surprised when it goes wrong and it turns into a shootout. If I was on the team, I would say next game we don't get to do that once. Then see how creative you can get to have different missions.
The honor system. First, it doesn't make sense to lose honor for killing/looting a body in the middle of nowhere with no witnesses. That would mean that honor is something that Arthur feels about himself. But shopkeepers treat you differently based upon your honor as if it's your reputation. The reality is that honor is a system outside the world of New Hanover and is a system for the video game. And the more times you're reminded it's a game, you lose immersion.
These next 4 complaints are slightly spoilery. You've been warned.
After you complete the game's story, you unlock an entire new section of the map. It's the map from the first game. This feels like a complete wasted opportunity. This area just feels super empty. No missions or anything really worth exploring. There's no reason why this map couldn't have been incorporated halfway though the story.
Unless of course, it was designed that way for continuity. Which leads me to my next complaint. You see, this is a prequel. And that causes all kinds of story problems. Especially when you have big missions that put people in danger...when you know those characters are alive in RDR. We know they make it. There's no tension there.
As for Arthur's story...I suppose it's subjective, but I didn't care for basically anything in Chapter 6.
ALSO, for all this love that Arthur gets as an amazing character, there really was never any tension in his story either. At one point, you're on a debt collecting mission and the options are (cancel the debt or cancel the debt and give them money). What if I don't want to cancel the debt?! The story makes you into a honorable person (who happens to have killed 1000 men).
So with all these complaints, why did I love my time in the game and play it so much? It does a lot of things right. The world is great. I loved the challenges, the hunting, the exploring, collecting treasure maps, upgrading my camp.
Except it manages to bungle that too...you get too much money so you can upgrade your camp fully pretty quickly on. And then the challenges are prickly. Collect 15 plants. Okay. Done. Now collect all 43. We won't give you credit for collecting the first 15 or have a system of telling you which ones you've already collected. So just wander around forever picking every plant you see. Now you've collected 22 plants. Good luck knowing which ones you still need to collect, we won't tell you.
If it was a shitty game, I'd say oh well and move on. But this game is great. So to see so many flaws in a game that is this good, is more frustrating than flaws in an average game.
The shooting isn't that great or fun. This has been a complaint for a longtime with Rockstar games who do so many things well. Auto-aim isn't fun but the game is built for auto-aim. I turned it off and enjoyed the shooting more. But then I had to turn it on for some hunting challenges and then ended leaving it on as missions started sending 100 people to kill. It feels like you have to use auto-aim. (Personally, I think the game would be more interesting there was no auto aim and far less enemies. Make each death feel important.) Also, Dead Eye became unsatisfying and too easy. But you felt like you had to use it when 20 enemies are spawned at once.
The biggest complaint is probably the lack of freedom. Both in missions and overall. The missions force you to play in exactly the way the designers demand. Do you want to try to flank out wide and sneak around the back? Nope, you're too far outside the mission area. In the middle of a stealth section, do you see a chance to shoot enemies or create a diversion? Nope, you can only do stealth right now, even though in 5 seconds your character will create a diversion in a cut scene. This lack of freedom is also evident when you try to turn off the radar and discover it's impossible to complete a mission because you have to go to specific spots marked only on the map, as seen in this video.
This next complaint could apply to any game, but it's never really come up before. I didn't like the choices that my character was making in the story. But they never gave me options to do what I wanted.
Also the missions are repetitive, not just in this game but across all Rockstar games. How many times are we going to do something allegedly simple and then get surprised when it goes wrong and it turns into a shootout. If I was on the team, I would say next game we don't get to do that once. Then see how creative you can get to have different missions.
The honor system. First, it doesn't make sense to lose honor for killing/looting a body in the middle of nowhere with no witnesses. That would mean that honor is something that Arthur feels about himself. But shopkeepers treat you differently based upon your honor as if it's your reputation. The reality is that honor is a system outside the world of New Hanover and is a system for the video game. And the more times you're reminded it's a game, you lose immersion.
These next 4 complaints are slightly spoilery. You've been warned.
After you complete the game's story, you unlock an entire new section of the map. It's the map from the first game. This feels like a complete wasted opportunity. This area just feels super empty. No missions or anything really worth exploring. There's no reason why this map couldn't have been incorporated halfway though the story.
Unless of course, it was designed that way for continuity. Which leads me to my next complaint. You see, this is a prequel. And that causes all kinds of story problems. Especially when you have big missions that put people in danger...when you know those characters are alive in RDR. We know they make it. There's no tension there.
As for Arthur's story...I suppose it's subjective, but I didn't care for basically anything in Chapter 6.
ALSO, for all this love that Arthur gets as an amazing character, there really was never any tension in his story either. At one point, you're on a debt collecting mission and the options are (cancel the debt or cancel the debt and give them money). What if I don't want to cancel the debt?! The story makes you into a honorable person (who happens to have killed 1000 men).
So with all these complaints, why did I love my time in the game and play it so much? It does a lot of things right. The world is great. I loved the challenges, the hunting, the exploring, collecting treasure maps, upgrading my camp.
Except it manages to bungle that too...you get too much money so you can upgrade your camp fully pretty quickly on. And then the challenges are prickly. Collect 15 plants. Okay. Done. Now collect all 43. We won't give you credit for collecting the first 15 or have a system of telling you which ones you've already collected. So just wander around forever picking every plant you see. Now you've collected 22 plants. Good luck knowing which ones you still need to collect, we won't tell you.
If it was a shitty game, I'd say oh well and move on. But this game is great. So to see so many flaws in a game that is this good, is more frustrating than flaws in an average game.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Burger Bet in the Mahomes era
There's odds for the 2020 Super Bowl already.
Chiefs are a top 3 team. Lions are a bottom 5 team. A burger bet between the two records seems kind of unnecessary. So we're adding a wrinkle.
Until further notice, the burger bet is now regular season record + record against the spread.
It wouldn't have made a difference this year, because the Chiefs and Lions were both about the same, although the Lions were better ATS than the Chiefs.
However, in this system the Browns ended better than the Eagles, despite finishing 2 games behind in the standings. This system is designed to punish favorites and reward underdogs that have a surprising season, so it should at least give the Lions a better shot. (I'll even make the caveat that if the Lions have the better record than the Chiefs, than the ATS stuff is unnecessary--I'll honor that victory.)
Chiefs are a top 3 team. Lions are a bottom 5 team. A burger bet between the two records seems kind of unnecessary. So we're adding a wrinkle.
Until further notice, the burger bet is now regular season record + record against the spread.
It wouldn't have made a difference this year, because the Chiefs and Lions were both about the same, although the Lions were better ATS than the Chiefs.
However, in this system the Browns ended better than the Eagles, despite finishing 2 games behind in the standings. This system is designed to punish favorites and reward underdogs that have a surprising season, so it should at least give the Lions a better shot. (I'll even make the caveat that if the Lions have the better record than the Chiefs, than the ATS stuff is unnecessary--I'll honor that victory.)
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Memo to new Chiefs Defensive Coordinator: Fail Faster
Hypothesis: The Chiefs defense could help the team more even if they allowed points at the same rate, but failed/succeeded quicker.
For a long time, the Chiefs have operated under a bend but don't break defense. The idea behind this is to not allow big plays. In exchange, you allow short gains and try to hold them to field goals in the red zone.
What this looks like: Chiefs were 31st in yards allowed, 24th in points allowed. Since points are what matters on the scoreboard, that's the ranking that matters more. (Obviously you'd love it if you were a top-5 team in points allowed, middle of the pack in yards allowed, but that's not the point I'm trying to make.)
And as expected, the Chiefs defense ranks 30th in allowing time/drive.
This year the Chiefs offense was 1st in points per drive, averaging 3.25. (Also 1st in yards/drive.)
This year the Chiefs defense was 28th in points allowed per drive, averaging 2.41.
For every offensive and defensive series, the 2018 Chiefs came out .84 points ahead. (That net was #2 behind only the Saints.)
So the more possessions you get, the more chances you give the #1 offense, the more chances you give the #28 defense, the better off you are. (In fact, the Raiders had the worst defense in points/drive and they were only at 2.61. Because the Chiefs offense is more of an outlier than even the worst defense, you want to give them more possessions.)
So my advice to a new Defensive Coordinator, take more risks. Send more people after the QB. Allowing the occasional big play is worth it. You might fail just as often, but at least it will be quicker.
For a long time, the Chiefs have operated under a bend but don't break defense. The idea behind this is to not allow big plays. In exchange, you allow short gains and try to hold them to field goals in the red zone.
What this looks like: Chiefs were 31st in yards allowed, 24th in points allowed. Since points are what matters on the scoreboard, that's the ranking that matters more. (Obviously you'd love it if you were a top-5 team in points allowed, middle of the pack in yards allowed, but that's not the point I'm trying to make.)
And as expected, the Chiefs defense ranks 30th in allowing time/drive.
This year the Chiefs offense was 1st in points per drive, averaging 3.25. (Also 1st in yards/drive.)
This year the Chiefs defense was 28th in points allowed per drive, averaging 2.41.
For every offensive and defensive series, the 2018 Chiefs came out .84 points ahead. (That net was #2 behind only the Saints.)
So the more possessions you get, the more chances you give the #1 offense, the more chances you give the #28 defense, the better off you are. (In fact, the Raiders had the worst defense in points/drive and they were only at 2.61. Because the Chiefs offense is more of an outlier than even the worst defense, you want to give them more possessions.)
So my advice to a new Defensive Coordinator, take more risks. Send more people after the QB. Allowing the occasional big play is worth it. You might fail just as often, but at least it will be quicker.
Thursday, January 17, 2019
AFC Championship: Patriots at Chiefs
I'm going to try not to bury the lede this time.
Sunday is the most important Chiefs game I've ever seen.
- - -
This the Patriots 8th straight AFC Championship Game. That's incredible. Every other team can only dream of that success.
In the last 7 years of this game, the Patriots were 4-1 at home. 0-2 on the road.
This year the Patriots were 8-0 at home, 3-5 on the road.
There have been lots of moments this year when they Patriots didn't look that great. And then there was Sunday where they had the game won in the 2nd quarter.
- - -
Belichick and Brady have played Reid's Chiefs 4 times and you can interpret them in any way you see fit.
The Chiefs won the only game at Arrowhead.
The Patriots won the only game vs Mahomes.
The Chiefs were the only team to win on the road.
The Patriots won the only game to win in the playoffs.
All four apply on Sunday, so the history doesn't point to a clear advantage.
- - -
I know these are rare.
Aaron Rodgers went to the Super Bowl in his 3rd year. He's now played 11 seasons and hasn't been back.
The Dolphins had Marino from '83 to '99 and went to exactly one Super Bowl, his second season.
Rivers hasn't made it to the AFC Championship game in 13 seasons.
The point is, you can't take anything for granted and assume you're going to get a Tom Brady like run of Super Bowl appearances just because you have a great QB.
Can I go back to that for a second though? Mahomes is 23 and has already gotten the Chiefs farther than Rivers has gotten the Chargers and he's 37. That's nuts.
But despite how rare these chances are, no matter what happens this weekend, I'm happy with the season. I wouldn't have been with another first round playoff bounce. But Mahomes got the team over the home playoff hump and into the first AFC Championship game of my life.
(If they lose this week, then the bar becomes making the Super Bowl. If that ever happens, the bar becomes winning it. There's only two more steps possible. And they're both up for grabs in the next two games.)
- - -
Probably no one has noticed, but over the last couple years, I've been predicting the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl or at least the AFC title game. I've been making posts like this in:
2017
2016
2015
I didn't really do that this year. I talked about earning home-field for a potential rematch vs the Patriots, but didn't predict it was going to happen. And now it's here. And the Chiefs did get home-field. And they're the favorite. And it kinda seems like they should win.
- - -
Look, if the Patriots win, well, they're good. Brady and Belichick and everyone else has set the standard. Tip of the cap. Mahomes will have more chances. One day he won't be competing with Brady anymore. (I think Mahomes vs Watson could be the new Brady vs Manning) He'll be competing against Watson, Luck, Mayfield, Jackson, and then one day against kids that are still in high school right now.
But if the Chiefs win, they become the team to beat in the AFC for the next 10 years, starting right now. Not that they can make 8 straight title games like the Pats, but 4 or 5 out of 10 is on the table.
(They also have 2 more years left on Mahomes rookie contract, so if I was the GM, I would be thinking about how to get a top 10 defense to pair with Mahomes, but what do I know?)
- - -
Sunday is the most important Chiefs game I've ever seen. Hopefully, in a month it's #2.
Sunday is the most important Chiefs game I've ever seen.
- - -
This the Patriots 8th straight AFC Championship Game. That's incredible. Every other team can only dream of that success.
In the last 7 years of this game, the Patriots were 4-1 at home. 0-2 on the road.
This year the Patriots were 8-0 at home, 3-5 on the road.
There have been lots of moments this year when they Patriots didn't look that great. And then there was Sunday where they had the game won in the 2nd quarter.
- - -
Belichick and Brady have played Reid's Chiefs 4 times and you can interpret them in any way you see fit.
The Chiefs won the only game at Arrowhead.
The Patriots won the only game vs Mahomes.
The Chiefs were the only team to win on the road.
The Patriots won the only game to win in the playoffs.
All four apply on Sunday, so the history doesn't point to a clear advantage.
- - -
I know these are rare.
Aaron Rodgers went to the Super Bowl in his 3rd year. He's now played 11 seasons and hasn't been back.
The Dolphins had Marino from '83 to '99 and went to exactly one Super Bowl, his second season.
Rivers hasn't made it to the AFC Championship game in 13 seasons.
The point is, you can't take anything for granted and assume you're going to get a Tom Brady like run of Super Bowl appearances just because you have a great QB.
Can I go back to that for a second though? Mahomes is 23 and has already gotten the Chiefs farther than Rivers has gotten the Chargers and he's 37. That's nuts.
But despite how rare these chances are, no matter what happens this weekend, I'm happy with the season. I wouldn't have been with another first round playoff bounce. But Mahomes got the team over the home playoff hump and into the first AFC Championship game of my life.
(If they lose this week, then the bar becomes making the Super Bowl. If that ever happens, the bar becomes winning it. There's only two more steps possible. And they're both up for grabs in the next two games.)
- - -
Probably no one has noticed, but over the last couple years, I've been predicting the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl or at least the AFC title game. I've been making posts like this in:
2017
2016
2015
I didn't really do that this year. I talked about earning home-field for a potential rematch vs the Patriots, but didn't predict it was going to happen. And now it's here. And the Chiefs did get home-field. And they're the favorite. And it kinda seems like they should win.
- - -
Look, if the Patriots win, well, they're good. Brady and Belichick and everyone else has set the standard. Tip of the cap. Mahomes will have more chances. One day he won't be competing with Brady anymore. (I think Mahomes vs Watson could be the new Brady vs Manning) He'll be competing against Watson, Luck, Mayfield, Jackson, and then one day against kids that are still in high school right now.
But if the Chiefs win, they become the team to beat in the AFC for the next 10 years, starting right now. Not that they can make 8 straight title games like the Pats, but 4 or 5 out of 10 is on the table.
(They also have 2 more years left on Mahomes rookie contract, so if I was the GM, I would be thinking about how to get a top 10 defense to pair with Mahomes, but what do I know?)
- - -
Sunday is the most important Chiefs game I've ever seen. Hopefully, in a month it's #2.
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