So with the tiebreaker now and games remaining against the Bills and Jets, let's pencil the Patriots in as the #1 seed, Steelers as #2. Jags get #3 and Chiefs #4. (None of this is set in stone, we're just using pencil.)
5 and 6 are up for grabs. Titans, Bills, Ravens, Chargers are all vying for 2 spots.
For the sake of this let's say the Chiefs win their home playoff game against the 5th seed. I think they'd be favored at home against any of the wild-card teams by at least 3-4 points.
The worst seed then has to go to Gillette in the Divisional Round.
If the #3 Jags win at home against a wild-card team, that means the Chiefs play the Patriots.
If the #3 Jags lose at home against a wild-card team, that means the Chiefs play the Steelers.
By not getting the bye, the Chiefs ensured they would have to play both the Pats and Steelers, both on the road.
If they had closed out the Raiders, Giants, Bills and Jets (all close games in the 4th where the Chiefs were favored) they would be 12-2. If that were the case....
Chiefs would be #1, Pats #2, Steelers #3, Jags #4.
Divisional round would be Jags at Chiefs. They'd only have to play one of Pats/Steelers and it would be at Arrowhead.
I know when the Chiefs are 8-6, pointing out if 4 games had flipped is kind of stupid. I mean, flip 4 the other way and they are 4-10. The Bears are 4-10. But those 4 games were there for the taking. That's what you have to do to have the easy championship road.
For now, KC gets Cutler and the 6-8 Dolphins coming to Arrowhead on Christmas Eve. Win that and they secure back to back division titles for the first time in the franchise's 58-year-history. One game at a time.
At the core of it, the Power Five conferences get an automatic entry. He also makes a caveat for a non-Power Five team that goes unbeaten gets in automatically.
I initially included the conference champions (back then there were 6 power conferences) and two years later removed them because we were excluding good teams in favor of champions from weak conferences.
Basically, I've been in favor of the 8-team for 11 years and we still don't have it. If I were in charge today, I'd roll with Dan's plan. Good stuff.
I thought it would go through the results and our draft to see who the best draft picks were. This will involve performance and draft value, since it's not that helpful to point out Bell was the #2 RB but the #1 pick taken.
Best RB Picks
Gurley - #1RB - 17th
Kamara - #3RB - undrafted
Hunt - #4RB - 43rd
Ingram - #6RB - 72nd
Elliot - #7RB - 36th
Best WR Picks
Hopkins - #2WR - 24th
Allen - #4WR - 28th
Thielen - #5WR - 90th
Jones Jr. - #8WR - 113th
Best QB Picks
Wentz - #2QB - undrafted
You couldn't really go wrong at QB this year. Brady was the first QB taken and had a good year. Wilson and Cousins could be had later. Wentz, Watson, Goff, even Alex Smith had good years and could be found on the waiver wire. A lot easier to find a top-ten QB replacement than a top-ten WR replacement.
I'm on track to have the most points scored this year, but I could have done better.
Bell great first pick.
Fournette great second pick.
Needed a receiver here, should have taken Hopkins instead of Hilton. Knowing Luck was injured, that's just a bad pick.
Hill not a bad pick, Adams, Fitzgerald or Landry would have all been better.
Thought I was getting a steal on Mixon and could get Hunt later. Should have grabbed Hunt.
Gore and Marshall were busts at 6/7. Could have had Ingram.
Hogan, Eifert and Cousins, all solid. Eifert got hurt but that doesn't make it a bad pick.
Late round picks are fliers. I mean with perfect hindsight I could have gotten Wentz and Jones Jr. but they're lottery tickets at that point.
The Hopkins and Hunt decisions were 2 that I should have made.
I won a ticket to the Chiefs-Bills game on Sunday. Disappointing home loss, but it was still nice to go to the stadium. It was my first time in the club level. Felt like a real big shot with the carving stations and $13 bloody mary bar.
Here's a picture I took just to the left of the glass-walled suites on the club level.
Then I walked over to my seats, Section 239, Row 1.
It was cool to be the front row and all but I wasn't thrilled with sitting in the corner again. Since it was early, I walked through the seats to get to the 50 to take this shot:
I had a hunch that a decent number of corporate seats go unfilled, so I picked the last row in this section (Section 202, Row 9) and waited for kickoff. I got lucky as there were 5 empty seats and I got a primo view of the game.
Through Week 12, there are four teams that have only two losses or less. Eagles, Steelers, Vikings, Patriots. So based on record, beating these teams would be the most impressive wins. Here are the teams with the best wins:
Chiefs (x2)
Bears
Jaguars
Steelers
Lions
Panthers
There are five teams that have less than three wins. 49ers, Giants, Colts, Bears, Broncos. (There's actually six but since the Browns haven't beaten anybody they're irrelevant to this.) Based on record, here are the teams with the worst losses:
Leading up to my 33rd birthday a year ago, I had an idea. It was to make 33 the best year of my life. I thought there was something special in the number and I was about to embark upon a new journey--a new job, a new city. So I made a document. There were 4 sections. Career, Personal, Fitness, Family. Each of the four sections had specific action items underneath. I thought if I accomplished these things, it would make it the best year of my life.
Overall I was about a 50% success rate.
I did lean into my career, going pretty well.
I did some personal writing, feel good about that.
I did go to some Chiefs games.
I didn't take my family camping.
I didn't reach any of the fitness goals.
I didn't do curling or indoor skydiving.
But sitting here as I turn 34, I don't think I should judge my year on the goals I had. Because a lot happened that I wasn't expecting.
- - -
Not only did I really try to make the most of my career, I produced more TV than I ever had before. Actually made a funny commercial and it was for the Chiefs. Got to travel to NY and LA for work. Despite the occasional to frequent stress, it's been a great year at work.
With some help from Niraj, I came up with an idea for a book to write and have completed 98% of the first draft. It makes me laugh. I feel really good about it.
I've really had a great year with the kids. We've been reading lots of books, they started soccer and swimming and tumbling. I'm so proud of them.
I got to live in Kansas City for the first time since I was 9. I did more escape rooms, I took my family hiking, took vacations, ate a lot of barbecue.
I moved into a great house and have an amazing game room that I just love to be in.
I found Unity Temple which brings me peace and perspective every Sunday.
And most importantly of all, I was able to repair the primary relationship in my life. Every day Brittany brings me joy and love in a way that can't be replicated. I'm excited to be with her, I'm excited every day for our life together. My family is whole again and that's really all that matters in life.
- - -
So was it the best year of my life? Well, what's the competition?
When I was 18, I started dating Brittany and made life-long friends in my first year in college.
When I was 21, I graduated early from college, proposed to Brittany, got to experience an Illinois Final Four run, and moved to Chicago for an internship.
When I was 27, I became a dad, got a new job and moved to Colorado.
Those were all pretty great and influential years. There's really no need to split hairs and try to claim one was better than another. But I will say it's true that you don't know what you have until it's gone. When I was 27, I was on top of the world. Hadn't felt what it was like to go through something truly difficult and come out the other side. Now I try my best to appreciate everything that I have and take nothing for granted.
CHIEFS. They started the season 5-0 and there was actually Alex Smith MVP talk. But now they're 6-3 along with the Titans and Jags. The optimist would look at how their schedule eases up after the bye and could see a path to 13-3 or 12-4 and getting a playoff bye. A pessimist could see them dropping more games and ending up 9-7. Still, fun season, fun games.
ILLINI BASKETBALL. The Underwood era kicked off by the Illini scoring 100. Mr. Basketball Mark Smith is actually really good at basketball. He's a freshman. The starting five of Smith, Lucas, Finke, Alstork and Black is really strong. Goals: make the tournament this year. Sweet 16 in 2018-2019. Final Four in 2019-2020.
AVALANCHE. Had a surprising 4-1 start to the season but cooled off. The big news is they finally traded Matt Duchene. Sucks because he's an awesome guy and was my favorite player. They allegedly got a good return but I never think you're going to be better by trading away the best player. What it really means is that they're even more years away from being competitive. Although Duchene didn't prevent them from being the worst in the league last year so I understand trying to rebuild. I don't think the coach is the answer it will probably be 5+ years before this team wins a playoff series. Will Landeskog or MacKinnon ever win a series in Colorado?
ILLINI FOOTBALL. They're bad. Lovie was a great hire, but he's not a miracle worker. They'll get better but it's still a sport dominated by the blue-blood programs. In 10 years, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois will still be bad. ALionEye thinks in the fall of 2019 that Michigan-Illinois will be a big national game, we'll see.
USMNT. And just when you think that there couldn't be a team doing worse than Illinois football...in the 2015 Gold Cup they lose to Jamaica, didn't even make the finals. Since They won the previous Gold Cup there was a special playoff vs Mexico to see who would represent CONCACAF in the 2017 Confederations Cup. USMNT would lose that as well. In 2016, they had a decent showing at the Copa America, finishing 4th. But then the wheels came off and they didn't qualify for the 2018 World Cup. (For what it's worth Mexico finished 4th at the Confederations Cup.)
And my Calcutta roster is strong and fantasy is doing well. I won the fantasy title this year, so it's all gravy from here on out.
I'm going to start with a little research/analysis.
Illinois actually had some good starts during the Groce era. The best was in 2012-13, when the Illini went 12-0 including winning the Maui invitational and a road win against #10 Gonzaga.
In 2014-15 they started 6-0 and were #1 in scoring through the first couple weeks.
So the question I want answered is: does a good start or non-conference translate to end of the year success?
- - -
(For the rest of this I'm going to use the fall number year for ease of use.)
So based only on that, yeah it seems like if you have 5 losses, don't make any postseason plans. And if you want to go to the tournament, try not to lose more than one non-conference game.
So here's what this means. The Chiefs are going to be the 3rd seed.
I know, there's another 9 games to be played. Way too early. But I believe this.
The Chiefs will win their division. They will have a better record than the AFC South winner. And looking at the Patriots + Steelers schedules, I think it's going to be hard for the Chiefs to pass them after losing 3 of their last 4.
(I mean it's still possible for the Chiefs to grab the top seed or miss the playoffs entirely, but let's go with this.)
So if it's Pats-Steelers 1-2 in some order, that means the Chiefs don't get a bye. They get a home playoff game but on wild-card weekend against the 6 seed. That could be an annoying game but let's assume they win.
They have to go on the road to Heinz Field or Gillette. That's a loss. Even if they pull off a miracle, they have to go to the top seed on the road the week after.
So yeah, this Chiefs team isn't winning the Super Bowl. The path to winning was getting a bye and getting only one of the Patriots/Steelers AND facing them at home. That's out the window. So...sucks.
Having just introduced my Point Differential in Losses metric, I thought it would be worthwhile to test it out.
I'm going to compare it to wins and standard point differential over the last three games of the year for the last three years, to see which metric is a better predictor in the playoffs. For each game, I'll state if the particular metric correctly predicted the winner.
2016
Pittsburgh vs New England
Wins: yes
PD: yes
PDwL: yes
Green Bay vs Atlanta
Wins: yes
PD: yes
PDwL: yes
Atlanta vs New England
Wins: yes
PD: yes
PDwL: no
(Editor's Note: so my metric looks a lot cooler if Atlanta doesn't blow a 28-3 lead, just saying. Pretty interesting that the Falcons in 5 losses had less PDwL than the Patriots did in two.)
2015
New England vs Denver
Wins: N/A tied
PD: no
PDwL: N/A tied
Carolina vs Arizona
Wins: yes
PD: yes
PDwL: yes
Carolina vs Denver
Wins: no
PD: no
PDwL: no
2014
New England vs Indianapolis
Wins: yes
PD: yes
PDwL: yes
Green Bay vs Seattle
Wins: N/A tied
PD: yes
PDwL: yes
New England vs Seattle
Wins: N/A tied
PD: yes
PDwL: no
(Editor's Note: Goddamnit. The Patriots win 2 Super Bowls in three years that they shouldn't have and it ruins my metric. Fuck.)
I came up with a new stat: Point Differential in Losses. It rewards wins and close losses, punishes big losses. You don't get credit for blowing out bad teams, but it does punish the bad teams. Take the recent game where the Ravens beat the Dolphins by 40. The Ravens aren't that good (before that game they had a -18 point differential). So instead of acting like they're really a +22 team now, let's just punish the Dolphins for being shitty.
There is one caveat, if you've only played 7 games, you're at an advantage to a team that's played 8 games. So I'll put an asterisk by the 7 game teams. If you see an asterisk, you probably want to mentally move them down a slot or two.
Before the season if you had to pick one game to go to, it would be Broncos on Monday Night Football. Because of the way the season has gone, it became the most important game of the year so far--division race up for grabs, homefield race in the balance, divisional rival, primetime, all of it.
On Friday, I find out I'm getting tickets.
- - -
Quick aside, the tickets included access to a VIP Tailgate. Ryan and I show up and they're serving beef lasagna. So in case you're wondering, that's how VIPs roll.
Due to the beef lasagna and the ridiculous parking line and the ridiculous line to get in (note to self: only go in a express line at the gate) we were running through the concourse and entered section 108 at exactly the first play from scrimmage. It was actually amazing to be running down the steps and hear the crowd ramped the fuck up just as we see the field for the first time.
The game opened with two punts and then it was Jamaal Charles time. First play for him he gets past the line of scrimmage and there's only one man to beat. Ron Parker tackles him by the shoestrings and saves a touchdown. Game of inches man. Could have been 7-0 Broncos very easily. Instead, two plays later Marcus Peters strips Charles, recovers the fumble and returns it to the house. One man play right there. 7-0 Chiefs.
Three minutes later the Chiefs score again. They force a 3 and out and go 68 yards, including a big TD pass to Kelce. It's 14-0 with 6 minutes to go in the first quarter. Arrowhead is rocking. Both Chiefs touchdowns happened in the corner right in front of me.
Very Next Play. Interception. Peters with another big play. Chiefs have 1st and goal from the 9, just 11 minutes into the game. I said out loud, "got to cash this in." And the Chiefs decide to go for a trick play, Tyreek Hill throwing it to Ross Travis. Tyreek Hill now has more interceptions this season than Alex Smith. (1-0.)
Not only do the Chiefs squander a scoring opportunity, but this gives the Broncos momentum as they respond with the best drive of their game. They go down the field and have 1st and goal at the 9. It's only 14-0 with lots of time left...but Justin Houston comes through with a Big Mac Sack and ensures the Broncos settle for a field goal. 14-3.
Chiefs have another nice drive but settle for a field goal. 17-3. The teams would trade turnovers but that's the score at the half.
The entire rest of the game, I'm still thinking about that stupid trick play.
The Broncos would find some signs of life in the 3rd quarter and scored a TD to cut the Chiefs lead to 20-13 headed into the 4th quarter.
In the 4th, the Chiefs had a 43 yard field goal. It's a chill night with lots of swirling wind and it seemed like kickoffs had been short all night. Make it and it's a 10-point lead. Miss it and the Broncos have good field position to drive and tie the game. Harrison Butker makes it. (He now has a streak of 18-straight field goals after missing his first NFL field goal.)
With 10 minutes to go, it's 4th and 4 for the Broncos at their 48. They're going for it. I'm a little surprised with a full 10 minutes left, but here we are. They're pushing their chips in the middle. And the Chiefs shut it down.
Goddamn that felt great.
The Chiefs would add two more field goals and the Broncos would get a garbage time TD but it was never close after that. Final 29-19.
With a team like the Broncos, it was very nice to not leave any doubt about who played better. There was no whining about calls or anything they could say. The Chiefs took the lead on the Charles/Peters scoop and score and never looked back.
Here's a nice image to sum up the Broncos performance.
Surprisingly that was not after one of the Broncos 5 turnovers.
Here are pictures of the two Chiefs touchdowns.
And last but not least, I get to cross off the Broncos!
Childhood Era
11.4.1990: 9-7 win vs. L.A. Raiders (Bo Jackson)
10.11.1992: 24-17 win vs Eagles (Cunningham)
2004
Coming off a 13-3 season, I bought a pair of tickets through ticketmaster in the offseason. The Chiefs started 0-3 and by the time we were going to the game, the Chiefs were 3-7. Our seats were section 343, row 10 and they were $73 each. That game featured Brees, Tomlinson, Gates, Trent Green, Larry Johnson, Gonzalez. Plus a kickoff TD return by Dante Hall, and another that should have been. Although Priest Holmes was injured earlier in the year, and I didn't get to see him play.
11.24.04: loss vs Chargers, 31-34
2005
The following year was our first year in Chicago. We made plans to spend New Year's in Kansas City and see the Chiefs finish the season on New Year's Day. The Chiefs were 4-2 at the time we purchased the tickets. I got the tickets through ebay, section 301, row 5, $70 each. This was Vermeil's last game. It was a good season. The Bengals didn't try much and it was a blowout win. The Chiefs finished 10-6 but didn't make the playoffs. The Steelers finished 10-6, got the wild-card spot on tiebreakers, and won the Super Bowl.
1.1.06: win vs Bengals, 37-3
2007
In August, I found a great deal on lower bowl seats through a private seller. Section 122, row 10 for $90 each. Trent Green was traded, so Damon Huard was the starter. Bowe was a rookie. The Chiefs were 2-2 coming into the game, but 1-0 at home. They would lose this game, win the next two to get to 4-3, before finishing 4-12. MJD had a 52-yard TD run and it was 17-0 Jaguars, before Croyle came in for a garbage time TD in the rain. Here's the post.
10.7.07: loss vs Jaguars, 7-17
2010
The Chiefs are 3-0, which means the wife is on the bandwagon! We just got tickets through NFL.com Ticket Exchange, section 301, row 28, $64 each, to see the Chiefs host the Cardinals on the day before my birthday. Not only do the Cardinals seem quite beatable on the road, but you have to think that Haley will have extra incentive and know how to beat his old team. Here's the post.
11.21.10: win vs Cardinals, 31-13
2014
We got two tickets through Crowd Seats, Section 324, Row 28, $48 each. It was part of a 24-hour trip. Here's the post.
10.26.14: win vs Rams, 34-7
2016
First time I went to a game by myself. First night game! First time seeing the Raiders since 1990. I paid $74 on StubHub for Section 324, Row 28, Seat 5. And I froze my ass off--zero degrees. Here's the post from the game.
12.8.16: win vs Raiders, 21-13
2017
I got free tickets through work and took a co-worker Ryan. First MNF game! First game against the Broncos! Section 108, Row 27, Seat 6. Here's the post from the game.
10.30.17: win vs Broncos, 29-19
And then I won a work raffle and got a free ticket. Ticket was marked Section 239, Row 1 but I sat in Section 202, Row 9. Here's the post from the game.
11.26.17: loss vs Bills, 10-16
2019
Just bought Section 346, Row 17, Seat 3 for Colts at Chiefs. First loss of a season...a season in which the Chiefs win the freaking Super Bowl. Here's the post from the game.
10.6.19: loss vs Colts, 19-13
Current Record of All-Time Games In Person: 7-4
I really prefer sitting between the 30s than in the corner or endzone. Sitting in the upper deck is really pretty good, but those seats are best in the first 20 rows.
So here's something. On the NFL opening night, the Chiefs beat the Patriots. The Chiefs also started 5-0. That's good!
And yet, since opening night, the Chiefs have gone 4-2. The Patriots have gone 5-1.
The Steelers barely squeaked by the Browns and lost to the Bears and Jaguars. And yet they're 5-2 also.
The Chiefs loss to the Steelers was not surprising. The loss to the Raiders really wasn't that surprising either because the Raiders are supposed to be good and divisional games on the road, especially on a short week, should never be considered a gimme. (These days, no game is a gimme, so nothing should surprise us.)
But when you look at those three teams tied at 5-2, it doesn't matter what's surprising, it only matters what's in the win column. The bye is huge. And while playing at Arrowhead doesn't even get close to guaranteeing a win, having to go to Heinz or Gillette in January is an absolute disaster. The Chiefs do hold the tiebreaker over the Patriots and that's still what you'd rather have, but the Steelers hold it over the Chiefs. Pittsburgh and New England will play each other on December 17 at the Steelers.
You look at the Steelers schedule and not a lot of tough opponents. Packers minus Rodgers. Colts, Titans, Bengals, Ravens, Browns. Their toughest game in the next 6 is going on the road to Detroit.
So here I am. I really really need the Lions to beat the Steelers. Of course, most of all, I need the Chiefs to win their next game...
Let's see, what's that going to be...
Oh nothing really, just a Monday Night Football game at Arrowhead against the 2nd best team in the division, the team I hate the most. A primetime nationally televised home game the night before Halloween. Where if the Chiefs lose, they lose all the momentum in the division. But if they win, they'd have a huge divisional lead. Oh man. That's the thing about winning big games. The more you win, the bigger the games get. Opening night was a big win and it just makes this game even bigger.
- - -
Oh and the Packers, Panthers and Falcons all look like shit. The Vikes are #2 in the NFC and they don't have a QB. The Seahawks have struggled. So the best teams are the Eagles with Wentz and the Rams with Goff...This really does feel like the NFL is as wide open as it's ever been.
For a team with Alex Smith or Matthew Stafford, you only get so many chances where the Bradys and Rodgers of the worlds aren't dominating. Gotta make them count.
There are 27 major resorts on the Las Vegas Strip. So many choices, right?
Sure. But 19 out of 27 are owned by just 2 companies. Here's a breakdown of who owns what resorts. MGM Resorts
MGM Grand
Luxor
Excalibur
Aria
Bellagio
Circus Circus
Mandalay Bay
Mirage
Monte Carlo
New York New York
Delano
Vdara
Caesars Entertainment
Flamingo
Caesars Palace
Paris
Bally's
Harrah's
Linq
Planet Hollywood
Wynn Resorts
Wynn
Encore
Las Vegas Sands Inc
Venetian
Palazzo
The Blackstone Group
Cosmopolitan
Phil Ruffin
Treasure Island
American Casino & Entertainment
Stratosphere
Penn National Gaming
Tropicana
- - -
Here are the 27 resorts, ranked by number of Hotel Rooms, labeled if part of one of the two conglomerations.
MGM Grand - MGM Resorts
Luxor - MGM Resorts
Venetian
Excalibur - MGM Resorts
Aria - MGM Resorts
Bellagio - MGM Resorts
Circus Circus - MGM Resorts
Flamingo - Caesars Entertainment
Caesars Palace - Caesars Entertainment
Mandalay Bay - MGM Resorts
Palazzo
Mirage - MGM Resorts
Monte Carlo - MGM Resorts
Cosmopolitan
Paris - Caesars Entertainment
Treasure Island
Bally's - Caesars Entertainment
Wynn
Harrah's - Caesars Entertainment
Linq - Caesars Entertainment
Planet Hollywood - Caesars Entertainment
Stratosphere
Encore
New York New York - MGM Resorts
Vdara - MGM Resorts
Tropicana
Delano - MGM Resorts
I have to start this post by acknowledging that the Chiefs were the #2 seed in the AFC last year and had a home game against the Steelers and lost. So you could look at that and conclude playing at home isn't a big deal. Well, for starters, that was a 2-point game that ended with the Chiefs completing a 2-point conversion, only to see it called back to a holding penalty. And more convincingly, the Patriots were the #1 seed and got to face their Houston Texans with Brock Osweiler. So yeah, getting the #1 seed and homefield matters. For the last four years, the #4 seed has been from the AFC South.
(This year, anything could happen. The Patriots and Steelers and Jags are all 3-2. It's entirely possible that the Chiefs could earn the coveted #1 seed and the Pats or Steelers could be #4. But for the sake of discussion, let's assume that #1 is still clearly the best possible outcome as you are ensured you won't play on the road and you get the opponents with the worst record.)
In the race for homefield, the Chiefs are 2.5 games ahead of the Patriots after 5 weeks. I say this because KC beat NE and therefore has a tiebreaker. That's huge.
If the Chiefs beat the Steelers this week, they will be 3.5 games ahead of the Steelers.
If they lose... only half a game ahead. (5-1 vs 4-2 with the tiebreaker edge).
Since this game is worth 1.5 games in the homefield standings, it's a 3-game swing.
So yep, big game. And it happens to be at Arrowhead. Chiefs are favored by 4.
I drafted Kirk Cousins to be my every week fantasy starter. During the draft, I wanted a backup for injury that could be a starter, but also someone that I knew I would play in week 5, when Cousins is on bye. I saw Big Ben had the Jaguars at home and thought this was perfect.
Who knew that Jaguars would turn out to be an elite pass D after four weeks? I was tempted to stick with Big Ben despite his struggles because of the whole thing where he's a lot better at home than on the road...but then Deshaun Watson emerged as a real fantasy star. So I grabbed him with on the waiver wire as my first priority.
I figured Chiefs are decent against the pass but struggle against the run and give up lots of yards no matter what. So a running QB would give them fits, he could get 10 points just in rushing. So I plugged in Watson.
Big Ben vs Jaguars: 2 points
Watson vs Chiefs: 45 points
The Chiefs-Texans game was basically over at 39-20 with 7 minutes to go, but Watson managed to get me two more touchdowns in the final 3 minutes to win me $15.
I also appreciate Fournette's 90-yard touchdown run over the Steelers in garbage time. Garbage time is amazing.
I heard something on Against All Odds, that didn't seem quite right to me.
In September, Cleveland went on a 22-game winning streak. A Yankees fan on the podcast said Cleveland peaked too early. Me, being of sound mind and body, thought that winning 22 games in September is a good sign for winning say 12 out of 21 games in October.
So here we are. Cleveland vs New York.
My theory is Cleveland should win.
His theory is New York should win.
Last week I wanted to compare teasers to individual bets.
I went 4-1 on individual games
3-2 on 2-team teasers
2-3 on 3-team teasers
Small sample size of course, but does seem to show that adding more teams is NOT worth the extra points you get from teasing the lines. This week it was the Patriots and Cowboys not winning when heavily favored and Dolphins who couldn't cover a 13-point spread that screwed me. But when you're throwing that many teams in, every week there will be surprises.
With the vig, if you bet $100, you get $90.90 back.
So this week, if I would have bet $100 on each game:
I'll admit right up front I care a lot more about the AFC (obvious Chiefs bias) and therefore probably know a lot more about the AFC. But let's take a crack at the NFC anyways.
49ers, Giants, Bears you're done. That leaves 13 teams separated by only 1 game. Damn.
I'll go ahead and eliminate the Cardinals, just don't trust them.
The teams I do trust? Falcons and Packers. Panthers with an impressive win in Foxboro.
So if I count those three in, that leaves 9 teams fighting for 3 spots.
Let's give the Seahawks the benefit of the doubt because of past history and cross off the Vikings because of injuries.
Washington looked like a really good team last night. I know they're 2-2 but I think they make it.
6 teams for the last spot.
Eagles, Lions, Rams, Bucs, Cowboys, Saints.
Oof, that's really tough. Any of those teams could make it. Lots of decent to strong teams out there with only a few stinkers. I'll say the Cowboys but don't feel great about it.
We're one-fourth of the way through the season and the AFC is pretty interesting, to me at least.
We're not using to seeing the Patriots sitting outside the the playoff projections.
This week, the Texans looked like the best team in the league, and they're sitting outside the playoff projections.
Something's going to give.
- - -
Let's start from the bottom.
Browns, Chargers, Bengals, Colts, Dolphins are done. They're bad, with bad records, and just way too many good teams.
The Jets have the same record as the Patriots, but I'm still writing off the Jets.
That leaves 10 AFC teams for 6 Playoff spots.
Raiders...they're 2-2 with a tough schedule and Derek Carr is going to be out with an injury. I know they could still make the playoffs, but I'm betting against it. Because of the injury...I'm counting them out. Let's sort the remaining 9 by division.
Chiefs
Broncos
Texans
Titans
Jags
Steelers
Ravens
Bills
Patriots
The Ravens wins are over the Bengals and the Browns.
The Jags beat the Texans and the Ravens.
Based on that, I'm kicking the Ravens out.
So I've got three solid in:
Patriots
Steelers
Chiefs
That leaves 3 spots for these 5 teams:
Broncos
Bills
Texans/Titans/Jags
One of the AFC South teams has to make it and I'm thinking Texans win the division with Watson.
So now two more playoff teams from:
Broncos
Bills
Titans
Jags
Broncos and Bills already have a one game advantage on the Titans and Jags.
Glad we figured that out. I'll come back to this in January.
- - -
Oh and by the way, Chiefs already played the Patriots. They go on the road to Houston this week. Back home for the Steelers. Then on the road 4 days later for a Thursday game in Oakland. Which does give them 11 days to prepare for the Broncos on Monday Night Football. That's a rough stretch. Chiefs also will play the Bills and Broncos again. So based on my projections, I've got the Chiefs playing 6 games against the 5 other AFC playoff teams.
Getting the playoff bye is huge. Having home field advantage is huge. That's why every game is crucial. Especially a game like the Steelers. Having that tiebreaker could determine which team gets a bye or which team gets home field.
I won on Ravens +3 and Lions +2 and Panthers -5 but lost on Steelers -9.5 because the Browns were better than expected. My Chiefs +9 pick doesn't count, something about that I posted it after they already won. 3-1, not bad.
- - -
Just for fun, I thought I would try some 2-team teasers and 3-team teasers and compare how they do against individual bets. 2-team teaser swings the lines by 7 points but both have to win. 3-team swings by 10, all three have to win. I'd do 5 of each and see which does the best.
Individual Games
Eagles +1.5 WIN
Bucs -3 LOSS
Saints -3 WIN
Jets +3.5 WIN
49ers +7 WIN
2-TEAM
Packers PK and Chiefs PK WIN
Seahawks -6 and Patriots -2 LOSS
Eagles +8.5 and Saints +4 WIN
Cowboys +.5 and Ravens +10 LOSS
49ers + 14 and Jets +10.5 WIN
3-TEAM
Falcons +2 and Browns +13 and Patriots +1 LOSS
Chiefs +3 and Seahawks -3 and Ravens +13 WIN
49ers +17 and Jets +13.5 and Saints +7 WIN
Packers +3 and Patriots +1 and Chiefs +3 LOSS
Dolphins +13 and Falcons +2 and Eagles +11.5 LOSS
So I'm thinking about how the Chiefs stack up against the other good teams in the league. Just beat the Patriots on the road this year. Beat the Falcons on the road last year. Beat the Panthers on the road last year. Beat the 2-1 Eagles this year. Swept the Raiders and Broncos last year. Last time the Chiefs played the Seahawks, the Chiefs won in 2014 when Seattle went to the Super Bowl.
You go down the list and the Chiefs have come out on top a lot lately. So I looked it up over their last 30 games, including the playoffs, the Chiefs are 24-6.
In that stretch here are the teams that have beaten them: Steelers twice, Titans, Bucs, Texans, Patriots.
Titans, Bucs and Texans were all close games that don't scare me. But the Steelers and facing the Pats in the Playoffs? I'd prefer not to have to play either of them.
The Steelers come to Arrowhead on October 15. It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs can conquer their Pittsburgh demons.
"Super Bowl Window" is a phrase thrown around to describe when a NFL team has a collection of good players in their prime and how long they can keep them together at a high level.
The Seattle Seahawks won a Super Bowl through a very specific blueprint. They drafted a great quarterback and paid him peanuts, enabling the team to pay for great players around him, specifically on defense. Russell Wilson entered the NFL in 2012 on a 4-year contract.
This morning, thinking about this, I had 2 questions.
1. What did his First Contract Super Bowl Window look like?
2. Did he get/need playoff experience?
In 2012, they were good out of the gate. 11-5 record. They went to the playoffs and Wilson started 2 playoff games on the road, going 1-1.
In 2013, they were even better. 13-3 and 3-0 in the playoffs, winning the Super Bowl.
In 2014, 12-4, returned to the Super Bowl and really should have won it again.
In 2015, not as good, 10-6 and lost to the Panthers in the Divisional Round
His contract extension became active in 2016, they still won 10 games and made the playoffs losing to the Falcons.
If my theory was perfect, you would have seen a larger drop off from 2015 to 2016. But the larger point stands, that drafting a Pro Bowl QB and not paying him much, is a great start to building a Super Bowl contender.
- - -
The Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes this year and signed him to a 4-year contract for
2017
2018
2019
2020
(Teams have a fifth-year option, but because he was a top-10 pick, that option would be very expensive and no better financially than a contract extension.)
So there you go. The Chiefs best chance to win a Super Bowl in my lifetime is the next 4 years. In 2018, Alex Smith has to go and ideally would be replaced with immediate-impact players on the defense.
Of course, if Alex Smith goes and leads the 2017 Chiefs to a Super Bowl win, we'll take that too.
This wasn't a football game. This was a heavyweight bout.
Leading up to it, Collinsworth described the Chiefs as counter-punchers. We knew going into it that it was going to be a tough place to play. The Super Bowl champs opening at home, with the trophies, with the banners, with Mark Wahlberg. Al and Chris said they've never heard Gillette as loud as it was before the game.
And the Patriots came out swinging hard. No huddle down the field, 73 yards in under 3 minutes. It's 7-0.
First Chiefs play of the season, first career snap for Kareem Hunt and he fumbles. Never lost a fumble in 4 years of college.
Patriots are 32 yards from the endzone. 6 plays later, Tom Brady throws a touchdown to Gronk and it's 13-0 before Alex Smith has even thrown a pass.
Except that it wasn't. After the commercial break they take the touchdown away. That leads to a 4th and 1 from the 10.
They're going for it. KC Star writer Terez Paylor calls it disrespectful to go for it. The Chiefs stop them on 4th down and take over at the 10.
The Chiefs counter-punch and go 90 yards for a score with only getting to 3rd down once.
That was a huge sequence. Gronk completes that pass and it's 14-0. But defense steps up and boom, it's 7-7 after the first quarter. The Chiefs stop the bleeding and prove this is going to be a fight.
Next drive ends with a 4th and 1 for the Pats from the 8. The Chiefs have them gunshy and they settle for a field goal. That initial 4th down stop still providing benefits.
But the Patriots get it back after a punt and take a 17-7 lead. And the Chiefs punt again. Just like that it feels inevitable. The Patriots are the Champs. They've scored on 3 out of 4 drives. The Chiefs have only scored on 1 out of 4 drives. To stop them from scoring, we needed a key 4th down stop—you can't count on those.
With 3:44 to go in the first half, the Pats have the ball and could extend their lead before the half. But the Chiefs force their first punt.
The Chiefs now have 2:47 to salvage something. And I've always liked Alex Smith in these situations. I think he's best when he's forced to throw down the field. They quickly chip down the field, picking up key 3rd downs and with 13 seconds left Alex Smith checks down to Kareem Hunt for his first career touchdown.
It's Halftime and it's 17-14 Patriots. The Chiefs just executed a two-minute drill on the road in Foxboro against the Champs. KC gets the ball back to start the second half. The Chiefs hung in there and fought back from the second wave of punches.
Against a normal team, I'd feel reasonably confident. Against the Patriots, just nothing but dread. It still feels inevitable. But at least we didn't get blown out. At least we're not a national laughingstock.
After two punts, the Chiefs start a drive on their own 25 and this happens:
I really can't say enough about this. This feels SO MUCH like a play that I've seen happen over and over without the same result. The one where Alex checks down to RB and then the broadcast shows a replay that he had a wide open Maclin or Kelce or Hill that could have had a score. Or the one where Alex sees an opportunity like this but the pass is a little long or a little short. Or the one where he makes the throw but the ball bounces off a normally sure-handed receiver. I've seen countless variations of the wide open receiver—but I've rarely seen this version.
This is the version where Alex scans left and then continues to scan right where Hill is. When he sees Hill breaking open and doesn't hesitate. He fires it perfectly deep hitting him right in stride. And Hill catches it, oh my goodness he catches it. This is the version where the Chiefs take the lead for the first time. Just wow.
I saw the angle from Alex's point of view (wish I could find it again) and when Alex starts to throw it, Hill is not nearly that open. He's got him beat, but he's basically even with the defender. It's a thing of beauty.
And then, oh by the way, it's 21-17 Chiefs. With 9 minutes to go in the 3rd. It feels great, but I know that 24 minutes of football is an eternity. I expect the Patriots to come back.
The Chiefs lead lasted for 4 minutes. Patriots 24-21 with 5 to go in the 4rd. Damn.
Chiefs go back to back punts. Patriots open a drive with a 54-yard pass to Cooks. This is the 3rd wave of punches from the champ. A touchdown here would make it a two-possession game going into the 4th. Limit them to a field goal and it's only a 6 point game.
Chiefs Red Zone defense comes up huge again. Patriots 27-21. After a penalty it's 1st and 15 from their own 5 for the Chiefs. This feels like a punting situation. But Kareem Hunt goes 13 yards up the middle, gets the team some breathing room. Nice, underrated play. If he doesn't do that, then he can't do this:
Holy shit. Kareem Hunt is my new best friend. Alex Smith is a gunslinger. The Chiefs have counterpunched for the 3rd time. They've retaken the lead.
It's at this point 28-27, where I first thought: "Okay we're in this game. It would really, really suck to get to this point, to have this lead on the road, and have it all be wasted. We need to win this."
Ensuing drive. 3rd and 2, key tackle by Peters/Berry leaves NE with a 4th and 1 from the KC 40. They have to go for it. They try to run it like they did back in the first quarter. The Chiefs defense stops them again. The same defense that on the opening drive couldn't stop anything, is now a stone wall.
After exchanging punts, Chiefs get the ball and go to work. Short passes, deep passes, it's all working. They score again. I wish they would have gone for 2 to try and put it out reach, but they kick the extra point and it's 35-27 with 5 minutes to go.
At this point, having seen three waves of punches from the champs, I thought there was a 99% chance that Brady goes down the field and scores a touchdown.
First play of the drive is the first sack of the game for the Chiefs. #BigMacSack. Houston beats the edge rush and finally gets home on Brady.
Chiefs force a punt and get the ball back with 4 minutes to go. Still nervous. Need to close it out.
So the Chiefs run the ball twice for 79 yards and go up 42-27. Is this real life?
Like can I start celebrating yet? Holy shit.
The Chiefs sack Brady twice more on the final drive and get to victory formation.
The game is over.
Can I stop being nervous now?
- - -
For the record, there were two times this decade where the teams involved in the kickoff game reached the Super Bowl.
In 2013, the Broncos beat the Ravens on opening night. The Broncos would end up reaching the Super Bowl, but losing.
In 2014, the Seahawks beat the Packers on opening night. The Seahawks would end up reaching the Super Bowl, but losing.
So that's not exactly as exciting as I would have hoped, but...based on this alone, it seems more likely that the Chiefs would reach the SB than the Patriots, so I'll take it.
- - -
Here are some random fun stats:
The 4th Quarter by Pats was reverse of Super Bowl: 4 drives, 2 first downs, 0 points. Outscored 21-0.
The Patriots were 81-0 at Gillette when leading at half during the regular season before last night (95-1 when including playoffs).
42 points is the most allowed by the Patriots in the Bill Belichick era.
The Chiefs have won 7 straight road games, including wins over all 4 teams from the last 2 Super Bowls (CAR, DEN, ATL, NE)
Players with 300+ pass yards, 4+ passing TD and 0 INT against a Bill Belichick defense: Drew Brees (2009), Alex Smith (tonight)
Kareem Hunt has set an NFL record for yards from scrimmage in the first game of a career with 246.
Alex Smith last 2 games vs. New England (48 of 61 for 616 YDS 7TD 0 INT.)
- - -
Chiefs Offense in the Red Zone: 3 times = 3 touchdowns
Chiefs Defense in the Red Zone: 6 times = 3 touchdowns, 2 fg, 1 turnover on downs
- - -
- - -
It's easy to start thinking just about the emotional part. The opening night national TV win, coming back against the Patriots who spent the offseason rubbing it in the Falcons faces...
But this is a huge win for the season.
For starters of course, the Chiefs are 1-0 and have a few extra days to practice for their next game. They already got a road win, in the hardest game on the schedule. Plus, it's a tiebreaker against the Patriots that could easily impact the playoffs. It's not even ridiculous to think that the AFC Championship could be these two teams and because of this game (maybe both finish 12-4) that game is at Arrowhead because of Week 1. Holy crap.
I'm pretty sure that tonight was my first time eating Lemon Pepper seasoning in any form. It's great. I wouldn't be writing about it if it wasn't. But my Lemon Pepper Dry at BWW had two clear flaws.
First, wings are better wet. These were crunchy which is good, but too crunchy. All crunch not enough flavor. The texture is just off.
Second, lemon pepper, like any seasoning, needs to stick to something wet/sticky. It's obvious, sure. If they were fresh coming out of the fryer, you'd get some decent seasoning to stick, but if you wait a minute, not much is going to stick. I had a huge pile of lemon pepper left over at the bottom of my plate. (Which I then dipped my Jerk wings and fries in—both were great.)
I also noticed flaws in Babish's preparation as far as I'm concerned. For one batch he tossed the the wings in lemon pepper dry and then coated with buffalo sauce. This may be authentic, but I'd flip it. Toss the wings in buffalo sauce, get them sticky, and then hit them with the lemon pepper.
His second batch he added dry seasoning directly to the wings, then added butter and tossed. Which I feel like would sort of work. Again, flipping it would get more of a coating...but there's a huge missed opportunity. He peeled lemon zest and did all this stuff to make his own lemon pepper seasoning. Instead of doing all that work to get to a dry powder, why not create one lemon pepper sauce from the beginning. Something with lemon juice, lemon zest, butter, olive oil, garlic and lots of black pepper would make a killer wing sauce. (Or the lazy way would be to melt some butter and stir in lemon pepper seasoning.)
So here's what I'm thinking moving forward. I'm going to pick up some lemon pepper. I imagine being able to season cut up chicken for tacos and other things.
Next time at Buffalo Wild Wings I might get some medium or hot wings and ask for lemon pepper on the side so I can coat how I want to.
Some day I should try to at least make the lazy version of lemon pepper sauce.
EDIT: So 12 hours later, I made some Lemon Pepper Wings 2 ways.
I wasn't trying to impress anybody, I just wanted some quick lemon pepper wings. So I bought some frozen Friday's ready to eat buffalo wings. Microwaved them up. Half of them I just sprinked generously with the dry lemon pepper seasoning. Because they were fresh out of the microwave, they were soft, sticky, ready for seasoning to adhere. The other half I wiped with paper towels and made a quick lemon pepper butter sauce and coated them.
The butter sauce ones looked better.
As for the taste, they were both really great, but the butter sauced ones tasted like too much butter. A little too greasy. Turns out adding lemon pepper to buffalo wings is fantastic, much better than adding it to bone dry wings.
I like the idea of a master BBQ list that I can continually update, but I also like the ability to look back at previous lists. So I'll leave the 2016 post as is, and this will be a flexible document throughout 2017.
Visited their original location (on 39th street) on 7/15/16. Brisket and ribs were both killer. They're opening a second location that just happens to be minutes from my apartment. Weird.
Went back for the first time as a resident on 2/4/17. Ordered the appetizer labeled: best wings on the planet. Also, got the brisket/burnt end plate, fries and beans. First time having their burnt ends. Wings were good but nothing that special.
The burnt ends are really great, brisket is good. Beans weren't my favorite. I feel good about having Q39 in the top spot now, but there are a couple of cons. There's always a wait, it's pricey. Parking is tight. Only one sauce on the table and isn't as good as Char Bar's.
Just ordered a half rack of ribs for the first time, (3/23/17 carryout):
SO GOOD. SO MANY! I couldn't even at them all. Saved a big one for later. Fries were good, beans still not that good. I guess I should stop ordering the beans. But damn. 1/2 Rack is a great freaking order.
Took my Mom here on 4/22. I had a 1/2 rack of ribs w/fries at the restaurant and then I ordered a Mr. Burns sandwich to go. It was the first time having the sandwich and it was brilliant.
Took Mark here on 7/27. We got the Macaroni and Cheese to start, and then we split a half rack of ribs and the Mr Burns sandwich. It was all so good, but the Mr Burns sandwich was the star of the show. Mark called it "one of the best sandwiches he's ever had."
2. Char Bar
Just tried this place for the first time on 12/6/16. Mercy. The burnt end and ribs were stellar. Brisket and beans, also good. But I'm going back for the burnt ends and ribs. And the atmosphere/drinks is the best I've been to.
Went here on 1/13/17 and had the Burnt Heaven sandwich and fries. Quality was still very good, but it was hard to taste the meat because there was so much going in that sandwich. Fries were awesome and this place has a killer spicy sauce (I had to buy a bottle to take home). Even though the sandwiches are good value and the descriptions are awesome, I think it's better to just get the meat on a plate.
Took Mark here on 7/25. We split a Holy Trinity plate as well as a pulled pork and sausage plate. Burnt ends are still the star here. Ribs great too. Love the sides and the sauce. Nothing to complain about.
3. Jack Stack
Bridget came to town and we got carryout for everyone (2/19/17). I had the KC Combo with burnt ends and pork ribs, fries, coleslaw and bread. We also had beans and potato salad so I got to try a ton of food.
Ribs were great. The beans were truly incredible, the best beans can be. Some burnt ends were good, some were a little tough and stringy. If it wasn't for that, I'd be considering #1 or #2 spot.
With Bridget in town we got another round of carryout 9/2/17. Ribs, brisket, chicken. Beans, potato salad, cole slaw, cheesy corn, fries.
Everything was solid. Really loved the beans and potato salad. Liked all the meats, but not as much as my top 2.
4. Burnt End BBQ
Tried this place on a whim on 7/16/16, burnt ends and brisket, beans and fries. Burnt ends were the star of the show, hence the name.
Turns out my apartment is just a few minutes away from this place as well. Weird. Dropped in for the jumbo burnt end sandwich and fries today 12/11/16. Since I knew what I liked, I didn't feel pressured to get the 3-meat combo with 2 sides like I usually do when I'm trying a place. Great burnt ends and plenty of meat on the sandwich. I like their sauce assortment and nice atmosphere. Very chill.
Took the boys here on 1/7/17. Burnt ends were much drier than pictured above. Seemed to just get an off portion. I'll still go back, but it seemed to solidify that this place isn't going to be breaking into the top 2 spots any time soon.
Got carry out on 1/28/17. Real good. Ribs and burnt ends are good, as they are at Char Bar and Q39. Guess I just like ribs and burnt ends a lot, eh?!
5. Arthur Bryant's
Went with co-workers on my first day at work, 11/30/16. Didn't take a picture but had the burnt end sandwich and fries. Funny thing was I ordered the lunch special: brisket sandwich. But they gave me a burnt end sandwich. It was awesome, so I should be thanking them. Their sauce is distinctive, and I like it, but it's not my absolute favorite. Still, this is a classic.
(gaping chasm)
6. Joe's
If you ask around, this is many people's favorite place. For me it's always been solid, but never amazing. Had the brisket, ribs and beans on 7/14/16. I don't think I've had their burnt ends because they only serve them on certain days. I'll certainly go there but I doubt this will ever be my favorite place.
Finally tried their burnt ends on 12/14/16. I've given this place so many chances over the years, and it never quite matches up with the competition. It's never bad. Just a 4-star place in a 5-star city. You can see it the picture. Compare Joe's burnt ends with Burnt End BBQ. See how uniform and cube-like they are at Joe's. They're dry. See how unique and juicy the ones at Burnt End are. I'm not eager to go back here. If I do go back, I think you have to stick with the Z-man sandwich. It's tasty, but I still think it's the barbecue sandwich for people who don't really love barbecue.
I've had this a few times at work (carryout) and it continues to be good not amazing. I think because people say it's their favorite and it's not my favorite, I'm always going to be a bit resentful and knock it down a peg.
7. Gates
My only review for this place that counts (2016-present) is a bad one. I went on the way to the airport, so I went to the State Ave location on 12/2/16. Ordering was a mess. I got a beef on bun with fries and the beef was dry, and a weak portion. Unsatisfied. And then I remembered my other trip to this location was bad as well. So I'm optimistic that this is just a poor spot and I'll try elsewhere.
This one hurts. Just two years ago, I was convinced Gates and Arthur Bryant's were the two best barbecue places on the planet. And I thought if I could only go to one, I'd pick Gates. I had the burnt ends at my usual Overland Park location on 12/15/16. Disappointed. Just not in the same ballpark as Char Bar, Q39, Burnt End BBQ or Arthur Bryant's. Next time I go, I think I should stick with the Double Decker, but man...I'm wondering what happened. Was it just that nostalgia and vacation excitement blinded me in the past, or did it really go downhill? Either way, I'm not dying to go back.
_________________________________________
Places I Want To Try
Danny Edward's
Slap's
Brobeck's
Plowboy's
Jon Russel's
Woodyard
Blind Box
Roscoe's Official BBQ Map
_________________________________________
I've gotten pretty good and being able to look at yelp pictures and tell if the burnt ends look good or not. This post was created 12/11/16, but I expect to edit and repost occasionally. And the good news is that even not-the-best barbecue is still pretty good.
