Bills at Chiefs: Playoff OT Thriller

 

I've seen Chiefs-Rams in 2018 where both teams lit up the scoreboard for 105 points. 

I've seen Chiefs-Broncos in 2016 that ended with a doink in overtime. 

And now I've seen Chiefs-Bills in the 2022 playoffs.

- - -

With 11 minutes to go in the game, the Chiefs were up 23-21 and had a drive starting at the Bills 16 following a great punt return from Hill. 

The path to victory is to score a touchdown, make it a two-possession game. On 3rd and 1, the Chiefs run a cute option play but the Bill sniff it out. A little too cute. Chiefs settle for a field goal and now the Bills get the ball with 8:55 to go, down 21-26. 

A Bills touchdown here feels inevitable. My only concern is getting the ball back so that Mahomes has a chance. With 9 minutes to go, it seems like a certainty. But the Bills play this drive patiently. Convert 3rd and 3, 3rd and 4, 3rd and 1. All of a sudden there are only 4 minutes remaining. I'm freaking out. Just blitz so you can get the ball back. 

There's a 4th and 4 with 2:48 where Josh Allen is a hero. 

And then 4th and 13 at the two minute warning. For a second it actually looks like the Chiefs could win the game on a defensive stop. Hahaha.

Allen converts this one by throwing it to Davis wide open in the end zone. Davis had already caught two touchdowns at this point, but sure he's wide open in the end zone. 

But whatever. The Chiefs get the ball back with 1:54. At least Mahomes gets a chance. I'm thinking the Bills scored too soon. 

And then the Chiefs did something really silly. They scored too soon. 

Earlier this year, I wrote about scoring too soon. Your goal is not to score. You have to score and consider the clock. 

Tyreek scores from 64 yards out with 1:02 remaining. If he slides down inside the 5, could have tried to let some clock run or force the Bills to use timeouts. If the refs had whistled Tyreek for taunting, it would have been 15 yards from the 15. Honestly I think that helps the Chiefs' chances of winning. 

The Chiefs' secondary was banged up and had no chance of stopping the Bills with a full minute remaining and three timeouts. The Chiefs couldn't even force a third down on that drive. My family came in to watch at this point and I told them before the Bills had crossed midfield that the Chiefs were going to lose on a touchdown. 

Sure enough with 13 seconds left, Davis catches his 4th touchdown of the night. A playoff record!

The announcers are talking about everything that Allen did to win the game. The Bills kick the xp and kick it deep. No squib. 

Mahomes get the ball at his 25. Pass to Hill gets 19 yards in 5 seconds. Pass to Kelce gets 25 yards in 5 seconds. Butker 49 yarder to tie at the buzzer. 

The Bills scored with 13 seconds left and it was too much time for Mahomes. 

- - -

Whoever won the coin toss was going to win this game. 

As the road team, the Bills got to call the coin toss. Allen called tails. It was heads. 

The only 3rd down the Chiefs faced in OT was a 3rd and 1. 

Mahomes 4 tds, 378 passing yards, 69 rushing yards
Allen 4 tds, 329 passing yards, 68 rushing yards

If this game had college OT rules, it could have gone to 7 OT. 

I saw a Bills fan tweet that Mahomes wasn't better than Allen, he was just luckier because the Chiefs won the coin toss. The thing is...he's not wrong. Allen would have gone down and scored, 100%. And the current OT rules make the coin toss more valuable than they should be. The Chiefs got screwed in the 2019 AFC Championship game when Mahomes didn't touch the ball in OT. And now Allen got screwed tonight by the same rules. 

By the way, if the Bills had won one more game in the regular season, this game would have been in Buffalo. And if it went to OT, Allen wouldn't have been able to call tails. 

- - -

The theme of the year was Never Count Out The Chiefs. It started in Week One when KC came back against Cleveland. 

In the middle of the season KC lost to the Bills and Titans and everyone started counting them out.

It came back in Week 15 when the Chiefs came back vs the Chargers that would help get them homefield.

I think most people counted them out with 13 seconds left. But turns out, that wasn't necessary. 

Earlier in the week, I had saved screenshots of everyone picking the Bills and Buffalo fans talking trash. I wasn't convinced that Allen-Mahomes was a rivalry yet. But after winning like this, Bills fans don't deserve my chirping. If it couldn't be the Chiefs, the fans of Buffalo and Cincinnati would be very deserving. 

Oh and one more thing: the Chiefs drive to get a field goal following a touchback took less time than Dak's run last week.

Go to hell, Isabel

This Costa Rican bot gave me so much trouble. Every time she puts you in check, this is what you see. The exclamation point really rubs it in.

I was winning and was down to a rook vs knight endgame. And then I blundered my rook in a fork. But somehow I was able to promote a pawn and win the game. 

I've now beaten two advanced bots. And I'll never have to hear Jaque! again.

Lions Playoff Update

I thought of this post over the weekend but didn't do it because I was getting the hint that I was too mean to my friends. So I let it go. 

And then I got this comment:

Ask and ye shall receive. 

Here is a chart from 2015 showing the last playoff win for each NFL team. 

If you direct your attention at the left side of the chart there are 5 teams that as of 2015 hadn't won a playoff game in the 21st century. 

Well since this chart was made, the Chiefs have won 8 playoff games including a Super Bowl.

The Bills have won 3.

The Browns have won 1. 

The Bengals have won 1.

In fact, the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals are all still active in the playoffs this year and the Browns were a preseason favorite who's season got derailed due to injuries.

Which leaves one franchise who hasn't won a playoff game since Silence of the Lambs came out. 

1 year of Bush.

8 years of Clinton. 

8 years of Bush. 

8 years of Obama.

4 years of Trump.

2 years of Biden.

Okay fine, it's been a long time. But because they've been bad for so long, I'm sure they've spent one of their top picks on a good QB and are ready to turn things around.

Wild-Card Weekend Update

Let's start here: From 1994 to 2013, the Chiefs were 0-7 in the playoffs. Seven times they were good enough to make the playoffs and they lost their very first playoff game every time. 

Three of those seasons, the Chiefs went 13-3 in the regular season. Let's go deeper. Here are the playoff seeds during that run:

6
1
1
2
6
4
5

So 4 of those losses were at Arrowhead. Three were as a team with a playoff bye. You're not supposed to lose those. The 2003 loss (no punt game) and 2013 loss (epic comeback), both against the Colts, stand out in my mind.

This franchise couldn't win a playoff game no matter what.

- - -

This is Year 4 of Mahomes being the starter and the Chiefs have won a playoff game every year. 

7-2 so far. (Only two losses were to Brady.)

Here is the list of QB playoff wins. Mahomes has already passed Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Unitas. He's one away from Steve Young and Marino. He's halfway to Peyton and Elway. One more win and he's halfway to Montana. The only QB with more wins and a better winning percentage is Jim Plunkett.

You want another stat? Here.

He already has the record for most 400 yard, 5td games.

- - -

8 teams left. A lot of good stories left to be written on the field.

Antonio, Suck on this

Over the last week, I've played this smug Paraguayan bot at least 50 times. He's rated 1500 and the first advanced level bot. Today, I finally beat him.

I traded queens early, he blundered a rook, and I played a solid endgame to close the deal.

No guarantees that I get better enough to beat any of the other three advanced bots, but at least I beat one once. 

2021 NFL Prediction Recaps

Calcutta Draft Thoughts I feel like these have held up pretty well. Even nailed the general order of how we would finish. To be accurate, I did need the help of an all-time choke job from Matt's teams. Not long ago the Ravens were the #1 seed, the Chargers were playing for a division title, and the Colts were going to be the team no one wanted to face. Yikes. Oh yeah, and the Cardinals dropped from the best record in the league to a wild-card spot. Oof.

2021 NFL Preview Before the seasons started, I went 6 of 8 on division winners. I picked the Chiefs over Packers which is looks like a ticket you'd want to own right now. Hard to believe I give these picks out for free.

Early Playoff Picture After Week 6, I wrote that 5 NFC teams seemed safe (Cardinals, Bucs, Packers, Cowboys and Rams), that Giants and Lions were a cross-off, and that the two wild-card spots would come down to Saints, Vikings, Bears, Panthers. The 49ers were 2-3 and the Eagles were 2-4. Good job by both to fight back.

On the AFC side, I thought there were 5 safe teams (Bills, Ravens, Chargers, Chiefs and Titans) with the Raiders seeming fine without Gruden and the Bengals and Browns fighting for a wild-card spot. I mentioned every AFC North team except the Steelers and nobody would have mentioned the Patriots. 

The Chiefs Path to Super Bowl LVI

Here's what we know for sure. The #2 seed Chiefs will be hosting the #7 seed Steelers at Arrowhead stadium on Sunday night. 

Win that and the Chiefs will host the best remaining team of seeds 3-5 while the lower seeded team will head to Tennessee to the play the Titans. The Bills is the likely matchup for the Chiefs here, although could be Bengals or Raiders.

After that is the AFC Championship. If the Titans lose their first game, the Chiefs host their 4th straight AFC Championship Game vs the team that upset the Titans. If the Titans win, then it's a rematch of the AFC Championship from two years ago, but this time in Nashville.

Chess Progress

In late November, our family got into chess. In early December, I was playing on Chess.com vs the computer bots and I could beat the beginner bots with ratings of 250, 400 and 700. I could beat the first intermediate bot rated 1000 but not the 1100 or 1300 intermediate bot. So around December 10 I would say I would be rated 1050.

Now after playing about 100-200 games with Mrs. Hoagie Central, I've beaten the 1100 and 1300 bot.

The three crowns means I beat them without any assistance, including taking back a move. So currently I've beaten all the intermediate bots. Next up is advanced: 4 bots at 1500, 1600, 1800 and 2000. 

(After that there are two master bots at 2200 and 2300 and a grandmaster at 2650.)

So currently between I'm between intermediate and advanced.

The Top Ten of 2021

Year two of a pandemic in the books and it feels like we're just getting started. 

Personally, the first half of my year was defined by a lot of healthy cooking and weight loss progress. And the second half of my year was defined by a lot of great travel experiences. (Which meant gaining some of the weight back, so it goes.)

Before we get to the top ten posts of 2021, here are some other notable posts that missed the cut:

Honorable Mentions

Big Ten Champs

Deep Dive on Big Ten Championships

Chicago Sights

Disc Golf Resurgence

The Poblano Incident

10. Hot Carnitas Hoagie
While the whole collection appears later, had to recognize my signature recipe I created this year.

9. Pasta Journey
This was short lived, but paved the way to a bigger cooking project.

8. Moments to Hang Onto
Capturing feelings from trips to Chicago and Asheville.

7. Mark Fever 2021
Mark bought me the best steak of my life and didn't win a single disc golf hole. What a guy.

6. Niraj Fever 2021
Just like the Lions, Mark comes up one notch short of Niraj. 

5. Living My Best Life
Keeping track of all the ways I'm trying to live well.

4. Remastered Vacation Pics
I went back and gave new life to old international photos. 

3. Daily Favorites: The Collection
My pandemic project was creating over 50 easy, healthy recipes to help me lose weight. I'll be using these forever.

2. Work Trip to Rome and Greece
Truly a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. 

and the best thing I accomplished this year: Number One

Ironman Fantasy Football Champion - Inaugural Season

Mark and I have competed in a head-to-head weekly fantasy contest since 2018. Every week we pick different players but can only use a player once per season. It closely resembles our first fantasy football experience, NFL Home Team Challenge, that we started in 2003. Each week you get the chance to pick a new lineup and the challenge is predicting who's got a good matchup, when's the best time to take elite players, etc.

At the Owner's Meeting in August, we discussed the possibility of a second league that could scratch the itch that the first league doesn't quite cover: planting your flag on players for a whole season, specifically  having to find gems outside the known elite players. 

The solution was to do a head-to-head league with 2 key restrictions: You have a salary cap to spend for the draft AND there are no pickups after the draft. The 16 players you draft in August are the only players you can use the whole year. You have to plan ahead for bye weeks and injuries. Since you need to draft players with the endurance to last all year, I christened this the Ironman League. Here were the rosters we drafted, with their salary cap price.

Head to head weeks were the only thing that mattered. With an 18-game season, I made Week 17 worth double. The idea was that after 16 weeks, if it was 8-8 it would act as a Super Bowl or if it was 9-7, it would give the trailing team a chance to tie it up and turn Week 18 into a winner take all. 

Here's our week 1 scores:

After 6 weeks, I was up 6-0 and none of the games were close. Derrick Henry, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Mahomes and Kelce were all lighting it up.

But in Week 7, I started having running back availability issues. Gus Edwards was out for the season. Chris Carson was now hurt. And Robinson was on bye. Derrick Henry was my only healthy running back. And he would soon get injured, out for the season.

Mark would win 6 of the next 7. So after 13 weeks, I was up 7-6. 

In Week 14, I had zero healthy running backs. But Lamar got injured and put up a zero for Mark. 

In Week 15, Mahomes and Kelce combined for 71 fantasy points on Thursday and basically clinched the week for me before it started. I was extra excited when Kelce made these moves to win the game.

So heading into Week 16, I was up 9-6. But job's not finished. 

If Mark wins the last three weeks, he takes the title. 

By 12:45 on Sunday, my only healthy RB James Robinson gets carted off with an Achilles injury. Which means that for the rest of the season, I've got no running back points. If he wins 16, he'll be favored in 17 + 18. 

In the last game that mattered, Mahomes came through for me and Stafford let Mark down. Poetry.

Never Count Out the Chiefs: Big Thursday Night Win vs Chargers (10-4)

In a season with only 17 games, one week can take a #4 seed to the #1 seed. If the Chiefs lost to the Chargers on Thursday night, they would be #2 in the division. Instead, they're the only team in the AFC with 10 wins and control their destiny for homefield advantage in January and the crucial only team to get a bye. 

There were many points in the game when it seemed like the Chargers were going to win. 

When Mahomes throws a 4th and 1 pass into the dirt.

Or when the Chargers pick off Mahomes inside the 5.

But really on the final drive, the Chargers caught this pass to get 1st and 10 at the 43 and only need a field goal to win.

And on this pass, if the red throws a flag, the Chargers win and the Chiefs would currently be the 5th seed. 

The biggest missed opportunity of the night was right here:

Ekeler just scored making it 20-13 pending the conversion. If you go for two and get it you make it a two-possession game. If you don't get it, you're still up 7. A Chiefs TD will only tie you. If you go for one, a Chiefs TD can still tie you. This is a beautiful risk/reward situation for LA and they don't take it. 

Instead, KC finds themselves down 21-13 with under 9 minutes to go. So what happens?

Touchdown Hill. 

Touchdown Kelce.

Touchdown Kelce in OT.

On the game winner, Kelce catches the ball at the 30 with three unblocked defenders nearby.

He gets by them and then has another unblocked defender to deal with.

Gets by him too.

Ballgame.

What a great win. What an important win.

This is year 4 of Mahomes as the starter. Which means he's played 12 divisional games on the road. 

12 wins, zero losses. Not a single fan of the Chargers, Raiders or Broncos has been able to go to a game  in Los Angeles, San Diego, Oakland, Las Vegas, or Denver and see their team beat Mahomes.

King on the Run

The last time I used the chess tag on this blog was in January 2007. This probably sets a record for longest times between tag uses. In this game, I was white and looking for a way to attack and capture the black queen.  

The move? Queen to h8. Black moved the king to f7 so I respond with knight to d6, forcing king to f8. Good start. So how do I get the queen from the board below?

Bishop to h6. Again puts the king in check so he has to move to e7.

From there it's simple. Bishop to g5, again putting the king in check. Allowing a queen capture without sacrificing anything.

Four moves in a row where black had their king on the run, ending with a queen capture. From here, easy to close out.

Bucket List Progress

I've always been one for pursuing new endeavors, but in 2014 I started a legit bucket list. Entering 2021, I had accomplished 13 items on the list. Some notable ones include cooking a 5-course dinner, making a cookbook, and moving to Kansas City. 

And then in the last 5 months I checked off 5 new items on my list:

• go zip-lining
• lose weight and take new work pictures
• take photos of the stars
• visit Greece
• take a Mediterranean cruise

Three of the things were work trips that fell into my lap (and of course the Greece cruise is a 2 for 1). For context I've currently got about 20+ more items left on the list, but most are travel destinations to visit. (So my current line of work seems fortuitous.)

So yeah, things are working out pretty well.

Raiders Karma

Sometimes you don't even have to say anything.

Work Trip to Cancun

I wrote some commercials and had to go to Cancun to film them. Tough job but somebody has to do it.

Okay, so the food wasn't very good and the pictures make the resort look nicer than it actually is. But I'm not complaining.