QB Rankings: Playoff Lessons

So I updated this post now that the playoff field is set. 

But I'll insert the relevant update here:

First off, there's one playoff team not represented on this list: Pittsburgh Steelers. They made the playoffs without having a top-24 qb. Impressive in its own fucked up way. 

So you can look at this when analyzing the upcoming playoffs. Like, we really shouldn't be taking the Browns, Bucs or Packers seriously as contenders. And that's coming from someone who thinks the Browns could beat the Ravens. Let me come back to this a moment....

But we can also look at this in terms of how does your team do if you have a top 10 qb. 8 of 10 made the playoffs. Burrow got injured, so we can put an asterisk on the Bengals. The other real exception is the Chargers. I mean Herbert also got injured, but they weren't on track to make the playoffs anyways. But it was a poorly-run roster and a poorly-coached team. The Chargers GM and Head Coach got fired. So that's what happens if you miss the playoffs with a top-ten QB. It shouldn't happen.

The 9 best QBs that were healthy all made the playoffs. The reason I focus on QBs so much is because it's that simple. If you have a QB in the top four tiers and they didn't get injured, you're in the playoffs. It's that easy. 

And the Browns are trotting out a QB in the bottom of tier 7.

Really, the dividing line for Super Bowl contenders should be top three tiers. 

49ers, Eagles in the NFC. Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins in the AFC. 

Just another reason to put your faith in the 49ers this year.

Week 18: Team by Team NFL Recap

This year, I did something new for the NFL season. I did weekly blog posts, and throughout the season (in weeks 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 14, 15) I evaluated the playoff picture and divided teams into Playoff Teams, Cross-Off Teams, and In The Middle

So that's 8 Check-Ins where I really sorted teams. I thought it would be fun to go back and see how teams performed, how I performed, see what can be learned from this exercise. I'll go in reverse order of league finish. 

Team by Team: Non-Playoff Teams

Panthers: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins. 

Commanders: They were in the middle in Week 2 at 2-0 but then crossed-off in Weeks 5 and 7. Back to in the hunt at Week 9, before being crossed-off in Week 11, 14 and 15. 

Cardinals: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins. 

Patriots: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins. 

Chargers: In the Middle through week 9, Crossed-off in Week 11 and remained crossed-off.

Giants: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.

Titans: In the Middle through week 7, Crossed-off in Week 9 and remained crossed-off.

Vikings: In the Middle Week 2, Crossed-off for Weeks 3, 5, 7. In the Middle for the rest of the season.

Bears: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.

Falcons: In the middle for the first 7 check-ins, finally crossed off in Week 15.

Jets: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for 7 check-ins. The exception was in week 9 when they lived in the nether space between Crossed-Off and In The Middle. 

Raiders: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.

Broncos: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off until Week 11. In the Middle for Weeks 11 and 14. Crossed-off for good in Week 15. 

Bengals: In the Middle for weeks 1-7. Playoffs for Week 9. Then they lost Burrow. Cross-off for Week 11. But then back to in the middle for weeks 14 and 15. 

Seahawks: In the Middle for the whole season until Crossed-off in Week 15. 

Saints: In the Middle for the whole season. 

Jaguars: In the Middle for the first three check-ins. Playoff Team from Week 7 to Week 14. Down to In the Middle for Week 15.

Colts: Crossed-off Week 2. In the Middle through Week 7. Nether space week 9. In the Middle rest of the way. 

Of the 18 teams that missed the playoffs, 2 teams received the Playoff Team designation. The Bengals and then they lost Burrow. And the Jags who choked down the stretch.

Of the 18 teams that missed the playoffs, I crossed-off 16 at one point. The two teams that I never crossed-off: Saints and Jaguars.

5 teams were correctly crossed-off from the very beginning and I never wavered on.

Team by Team: Playoff Teams

Bucs: In the middle through week 7. Crossed-off in Week 9. In the Middle in 11 and 14. Playoff team in 15. 

Packers: In the middle through week 5. Crossed-off in Week 7 and 9. In the middle in 11. Playoff team in 14. Crossed-off in 15. 

Texans: Crossed-off in week 2. In the middle in week 3 and for the rest of the season.

Rams: In the middle through week 7. Crossed-off in Week 9. In the middle in 11. Playoff team in 14 and 15.

Steelers: In the middle the whole season through week 14. Finally crossed-off in Week 15. 

Bills: Playoff team through week 7. In the middle from Week 9 on. 

Chiefs: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.

Browns: In the middle for all 8 check-ins. 

Eagles: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.

Dolphins: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.

Cowboys: Playoff team in 7 out of 8 check-ins. Were in the middle in week 3 after their loss to the Cardinals.

Lions: In the middle for 2 and 3. Playoff team from week 5 through the rest of the season.

49ers: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.

Ravens: Playoff team in 6 out of 8 check-ins. In the middle in weeks 3 and 5. 

5 out of 14 playoff teams got crossed-off at one point. Whoops.

11 out of 14 playoff teams got called a playoff team at one point. Exceptions: Texans, Steelers, Browns.

Teams I crossed off at one point: 21 (max should have been 18)

Teams I designated as playoff teams at one point: 13 (out of 14-team field)

- - -

Week 2 Evaluation

10 teams were crossed-off. 9 missed the playoffs. (Texans)

7 teams were playoff teams. All 7 made the playoffs. 

16 out of 17 correct after Week 2.

Week 3 Evaluation

9 teams were crossed-off. 9 missed the playoffs. 

5 teams were playoff teams. All 5 made the playoffs. 

14 out of 14 correct in Week 3.

Week 5 Evaluation

10 teams were crossed-off. 10 missed the playoffs. 

7 teams were playoff teams. All 7 made the playoffs. 

17 out of 17 correct in Week 5.

Week 7 Evaluation

11 teams were crossed-off. 10 missed the playoffs. (Packers)

9 teams were playoff teams. 8 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)

18 out of 20 correct in Week 7.

Week 9 Evaluation

11 teams were crossed-off. 8 missed the playoffs. (Packers, Rams, Bucs)

9 teams were playoff teams. 8 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)

17 out of 20 correct in Week 9.

Week 11 Evaluation

11 teams were crossed-off. 11 missed the playoffs. 

8 teams were playoff teams. 7 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)

18 out of 19 correct in Week 11.

Week 14 Evaluation

10 teams were crossed-off. 10 missed the playoffs. 

10 teams were playoff teams. 9 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)

19 out of 20 correct in Week 14.

Week 15 Evaluation

15 teams were crossed-off. 13 missed the playoffs. (Steelers, Packers)

9 teams were playoff teams. 9 made the playoffs. 

22 out of 24 correct in Week 15.

- - - 

This is so eye-opening. If you just look at the team-by-team, there's so much variance. It's up and down. It feels like it's impossible to get a grasp on a team. 

But then if you look at how I did by week, and only focus on playoff vs cross-off, it's actually wild. 

In any given week, I'm close to 95% accurate, and that started immediately in weeks 2 and 3. At the end of the season, there's no value to be had...But knowing 16 out of 17 teams futures in week 2? You can easily bet teams to make playoffs or miss playoffs, and even if a team is +250 or whatever, you're going to come out of ahead of you can go 16 out of 17. 

NFL Playoffs Brain Dump

I hate this draw for the Chiefs. Dolphins is a tough matchup out the gate. If they manage to get past Miami, then the Chiefs will have to go play in Buffalo. They'll want revenge. So I don't see the Chiefs getting to the AFC Championship. Barring a miracle where the Browns/Texans can beat the Ravens, then the AFC Championship is going to be in Baltimore. 

As a petty Chiefs fan who wants Mahomes to be the clear-cut best QB of his generation without even an argument, I don't really want Lamar or Josh Allen to win the Super Bowl. From a pure pettiness aspect, at least one of them will fall short of the Super Bowl, and even if one of them makes it, there's a good chance they lose to the 49ers. 

- - - 

The 14-team playoff field started in 2020-21. So this is year four of the current format. 

Here are the Super Bowl teams by seeds for the first three years:

Year One: AFC 1, NFC 5

Year Two: AFC 4, NFC 4

Year Three: AFC 1, NFC 1

So limited sample size, but so-far this system gives the 1 seed a 50-50 shot of making it. In the AFC 1 seeds have been 2/3 to make it, NFC only 1/3. 

Both one seeds to make it, only 1/3. 

No one seeds to make it, 1/3.

One of the one seeds to make it, 1/3. 

Right now, it seems like 49ers and Ravens are almost a shoo-in, but history says it's more likely that one makes it and one doesn't. 

- - -

I think the Cowboys will win and I hope the Lions win. That will setup a Detroit at Dallas fun Divisional round of the Thanksgiving opponents. 

Eagles/Bucs are both ass and will get crushed by 49ers.

49ers will host the NFC title game and I think they get by Detroit or Dallas. But Dallas always chokes in the Divisional Round. So if the Lions can put together two wins and make a NFC title game, that'll be serious progress for them. 

Of course, the Rams are hot so there's a world where they advance and I wouldn't put it past Dallas to choke in the first round, so who knows. But 49ers are the best team, they'll be rested, healthy (in theory) and at home. Seems like an easy path to Super Bowl LVIII. 

The greatest Chiefs game of my lifetime will always be Super Bowl LIV, and that day the 49ers were my mortal enemies. But I've watched the highlight DVD and Kittle has a quote that he'll be back, he's not going to let this loss define him. So if the 49ers win it all, I'll be happy for them. (Also, they were my preseason pick and my Calcutta team, and it blocks Lamar/Allen so this is the best case scenario for me)

- - -

It's hard to be objective about the AFC side of things. 

The Chiefs have not been on their game. 

I've never believed in the Ravens, and they've proved me wrong all year. 

The Bills are back from the dead and on a winning streak, and they've yet to put it all together. 

The Browns are a fun story and I could see them beating the Ravens, but I can't see them in the Super Bowl. 

Based on recent performance, I basically have to rule out KC and Miami (even though betting against Mahomes is inherently stupid) so that leaves Bills and Ravens as best teams to represent the AFC. Both Lamar and Allen have poor playoff track records, so one could get their monkey off their back and get to the Super Bowl, and one will have another season thinking about how close they got. Despite everything I said about one seeds not making it, I think the Ravens have the best chance. 

Plus, you know, the whole purple and red logo thing.

- - -

My NFL preview wasn't as accurate as previous installments. 

In the AFC, I only got 3 out of 7 playoff teams correct, thanks to the Jags choking down the stretch. Although I did correctly predict Buffalo would be the 2 seed and Steelers would be the 7 seed. 

I was right about Patriots being the worst team in the division and right to be skeptical about Deshaun Watson. I didn't see a Lamar MVP season coming but was right that Russ Wilson would be better. 

In the NFC, I got 4 out of 7 teams correct, nailing the 49ers as the top seed, Cowboys as NFC East Winners, and Eagles as the 5 seed wild card team. My other wild-card teams were Saints and Seahawks who were in it to the end and even won in week 18 but it wasn't enough. 

I was completely right on the NFC East and completely wrong on the NFC South.

Generally I was decently accurate overall, but not super dialed in on playoff teams.

2023-2024 NFL Playoffs are Set

First let's take a look at the Calcutta matchups:

NFC 

1 49ers (bye) DAVE

7 Packers DAVE at 2 Cowboys DAVE

6 Rams KIRAT at 3 Lions MARK

5 Eagles MATT at 4 Bucs KIRAT

AFC

1 Ravens (bye) KIRAT

7 Steelers DAVE at 2 Bills MATT

6 Dolphins KIRAT at 3 Chiefs KIRAT

5 Browns MARK at 4 Texans MATT

- - -

The matchups really worked out. 

You get Stafford returning to Ford Field. Stafford was 0-3 in the playoffs on the Lions. He is 4-0 in the playoffs on the Rams. Lions trying to win their first playoff game since January 1992. They're 0-8 since but 7 of those were on the road. Last home playoff game for Detroit? January 1994 in the Pontiac Silverdome.

You get Tyreek Hill returning to Arrowhead. The Chiefs beat the Dolphins in Germany but I don't think this game is going to look much like that game. 

Packers and Cowboys is a classic NFL matchup. Feels good just to see the logos lined up next to each other. And we get Mike McCarthy facing his old team.

And Texans vs Browns, the Deshaun Watson trade teams.

cricket?

I've made 3636 posts on Hoagie Central and never mentioned cricket. Until now. 

I saw this highlight from reddit/r/sports which got me intrigued. 

Then I found this video and it explained a number of things that never made sense. So now I feel like I can appreciate the situations. 

Then I watched this highlight video and it had some good moments. And I'm like, okay, is this actually better than baseball? It's no secret I think baseball is kinda ass and I know I'm not about to go deep into cricket, but there is something kinda cool about it. 

The Justin Fields Dilemma

The Bears had the #1 pick in the 2023 draft. They traded it away for an incredible haul. 

Now the Bears again own the #1 pick in the 2024 draft. 

We've seen three seasons of Justin Fields at QB. There have been some highs and lows. In the esteemed Hoagie Central ranking, Fields came in as the 16th best QB heading into 2024. 

So there are two main paths ahead for the Bears:

Keep Fields

1. Trade down from #1 like you did last year, get a package of picks, maybe a player

2. Use this haul to build around Fields, offensive line, defense, etc.

3. Extend Fields to a Daniel Jones level contract if you can

Trade Fields

1. Take Caleb Williams at #1, take OL with their other first rounder

2. Trade Fields for a 2nd rounder 

3. Reset the clock with a QB on a rookie contract for the next 4 years

So let's dive in a little bit. 

If you keep Fields, he's a known quantity. He's not a bust. He's shown signs of brilliance. If he had a better team around him, it's easy to see how he could grow into being a top 8 QB. By not spending the #1 pick on a single player, you can get a lot of help for the value of the pick. The Lions have shown that you can build a team from the trenches and get some good receivers and elevate a Goff from a top 20 guy to a top 10 guy. 

On the other hand, having a QB on a rookie contract is the most valuable thing in the NFL. With the cap space, you can add talent around Williams. You kick the can down the road and start over with a rookie that's an unknown NFL quantity. He could be Mahomes. He could be a bust. Anything's in play. You get the value that you can from Fields now without having to pay him. If Williams isn't significantly better than Fields, you've saved money on the contract but you've also given up the draft haul that trading the pick could have brought in. 

- - - 

So what do you do?

A lot will come down to the contract. If Fields wants a Hurts level contract, it's better to move on now. If he'll take a Jones or Carr level contract, then you can extend him and have stability at the position instead of starting over. 

Keeping Fields will lead to steady growth, giving you a good chance of competing for division titles and building a steady winner. But can you win a Super Bowl against Lamar or Mahomes with Fields?

Trading Fields is riskier. You're hitching your star to the fortune of a new guy. There's maybe a 15% chance that the new guy is a huge improvement over Fields but there's also a 15% chance that the new guy is a bust. 

Active QBs with Rings

How many active QBs have Super Bowl rings? 

Well let's see... there have been 57 Super Bowls...

Quarterbacks generally play around 15 years...

Got your answer?

It's five. 

Rodgers didn't play this year and is at the end of his career. 

Wilson missed the playoffs this year. 

Flacco's last full season was 2019, but he's still active.

So headed into the 2023-24 playoffs, your playoff qbs with a ring: Mahomes, Stafford, Flacco. 

I bet that's going to change. 

- - - 

One more time, because it's fun, here are those QBs with rings, sorted by draft year. 

Rodgers (2005)

Flacco (2008)

Stafford (2009)

Wilson (2012)

Mahomes (2017)

So yep, Mahomes is still the only QB drafted in the last 10 years to win a ring. 

Again, I bet that's going to change. 

Links to previous similar posts:

Super Bowl-winning QBs (from 2020)

Trivia (from February 2022)

Super Bowl-winning QBs (from September 2022)

- - -

Here's my NFL QB Rankings (but based on health of Week 1 2024) in tiers.

1. Mahomes

2. Allen

3. Burrow

4. Lamar

5. Hurts

6. Herbert

7. Tua

8. Purdy

9. Stroud

10. Goff

11. Dak

12. Lawrence

13. Cousins

14. Rodgers

15. Stafford

16. Fields

17. Kyler

18. Richardson

19. Love

20. Mayfield

21. Geno 

22. Russell

23. Carr

24. Flacco

Here's the same list, but teams making the 2023-24 playoffs are in bold.

1. Mahomes

2. Allen

3. Burrow

4. Lamar

5. Hurts

6. Herbert

7. Tua

8. Purdy

9. Stroud

10. Goff

11. Dak

12. Lawrence

13. Cousins

14. Rodgers

15. Stafford

16. Fields

17. Kyler

18. Richardson

19. Love

20. Mayfield

21. Geno 

22. Russell

23. Carr

24. Flacco

Chiefs Division Titles Turnaround

Here's a tweet from early December:

So after 2015, the Chiefs were in last place for division titles. KC had won it 8 times in 53 seasons of the AFC West.

Now they've won it 8 times in a row. 

It's the second-longest streak in NFL history behind Patriots 11 division titles from 2009-2019. 

It was a really big deal for me in 2010 when the Chiefs won the division. 8 in a row is insane. 

For the last 13 years, I've lived in the city of the team that's won the AFC West. 

Now the Chiefs have gone from least division titles to most division titles. 

Here are the current stats, at the conclusion of the 2023 regular season:

Super Bowl Wins

Chiefs 3

Raiders 3

Broncos 3

Chargers 0

Division Titles 

Chiefs 16

Raiders 15

Broncos 15

Chargers 15

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

AFC

The Ravens have clinched the #1 seed. 

The AFC East winner is the #2 seed. Bills at Dolphins next week for the division.

The Chiefs are locked into the #3 spot and can rest guys next week if they want to. 

The AFC South winner is the #4 seed. Jaguars are 3.5 point favorites at Titans. 

Browns are locked in as the #5 seed. 

The Bills can miss the playoffs if they lose and Jaguars and Steelers win. Steelers are playing Ravens, but they've already locked everything up. So Ravens should rest Lamar. They could win if they want to hurt the Steelers, but it's entirely possible that Jags and Steelers win. That scenario sets up Bills win and they get the #2 seed. Lose and they miss the playoffs. 

Dolphins have clinched a playoff spot, so even if they lose the division, they're still in the field. But #6 seed means going to Arrowhead. #2 seed gets a home game vs....likely the winner of Colts/Texans. 

Chiefs ended the 2022 Bengals season in Burrowhead Arrowhead in the AFC Championship. 

Chiefs ended the 2023 Bengals season in Arrowhead in week 17. 

Chiefs also ended the 2023 Broncos season today. 

So yeah, that was a big win. 

Eliminated: Raiders, Broncos, Chargers, Patriots, Jets, Bengals, Titans

In: Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, Chiefs. 

Winner of Colts/Texans is in. 

That leaves 2 spots for Jaguars, Bills, Steelers. 

Jags and Bills control their destiny: win and in. Steelers will need help. 

NFC

49ers secured the #1 seed and the bye.

Thanks to some rigged bullshit calls, the Cowboys just need to scoot past Commanders to claim the #2 spot.

Which would mean Chiefs and Lions are both #3 seeds, what a world. 

Tampa is going to beat the Panthers and get the #4 spot. 

Eagles will get #5. 

The Rams have clinched. 

So the final spot can be drama-free if the Packers can beat the Bears in Lambeau. Of course, the Bears have been playing well, so if they pull the upset, then it opens the doors to Seahawks. 

Here's the playoff picture, if all the Vegas favorites win their games:

Just for fun...let's say this is the playoff field and KC beats Miami. Bills would get by Colts, and Chiefs would go to Buffalo in round 2, then Baltimore in round 3. (Of course, the Chiefs of the last month do not get by the Bills of the last month.) 

But if the Bills happen to stumble, then Colts would go to Baltimore and Jags/Browns would come to Arrowhead. 

The path to a 6th straight AFC Championship in Arrowhead is very slim. It requires Ravens to lose their first game in round 2, plus the 2 seed has to lose in one of the first two rounds, plus the Chiefs have to win two games. 

Also, this is way premature as the playoff field isn't even set. Sorry for wasting your time!

The Top Ten of 2023

Another great year full of personal accomplishments, incredible travel, work success, seeing these kids grow up and become amazing people. These are for sure the good times. The years that I'll look back on when I'm old and remember how much fun, how rewarding it was to have everything that is in my life right now. 

Turns out I post a lot during football season and not so much in the off-season. That's okay. Lots of good posts this year. 

Honorable Mentions

Red Robin Trivia Champion

NYT Connections

Soundscapes

favorite bands, revisited

Ironman Season 2 Recap

2023 Work Trip to Asheville

Best Chiefs Seasons

I'm a man. I'm 40.

10. Rare Soda Reviews

I love getting some craft sodas, tasting and rating them. 

9. Skateboarding Mixtapes: Tony Hawk and Session

I can't skateboard in real life, but I can on the PS5. 

8. Andy Reid: Mount Rushmore Coach and a special Thank You

Two posts about an all-time coach. 

7. Chiefs January 2023 Playoff Run

• buffaLo biLLs
• Redemption at Arrowhead
• Go Off, Travis Kelce
• Super Bowl Preview

6. Weekly NFL Columns

A recurring post where I tried to make sense of what's going on in the NFL. 

5. Sports Fandom: Chicken or the Egg?

Finally answered one of the biggest questions in sports fandom.

4. Best Sportsbook Day Ever

I actually made a bunch of money in Vegas. Was this close to something crazy. 

3. Niraj's KC Visit

A really great visit full of games, nightlife, and good eats.

2. Super Bowl LVII Coverage

• Holy Crap, Chiefs Won Another Super Bowl
• The Parade
• Rings

and for the first time ever, the best post of the year wasn't written by me: Number One

Christmas Bourbon Cocktail Review

The truth is that I don't drink that much. Hardly ever at home. Hardly ever in Kansas City, unless Niraj is visiting. I'll have a few drinks on a vacation or a work trip. 

But I do look forward to my Christmas Bourbon Cream every holiday season. This year, it occurred to me as I was opening a new bottle of Maker's Mark, that I could do a little bourbon cocktail review, kind of how I did with rare sodas this year. It would let me figure out what drinks I actually prefer. Plus, it would give me an excuse to try to take some good photos.

Ginger Bourbon

bourbon

ginger ale

I'm starting with the simplest one. No garnishes or methods. This one was Maker's Mark and Canada Dry Zero Sugar Ginger Ale, on the rocks. A classic for a reason. The two flavors go so good together, much better than bourbon and coke. Fresh, crisp. The carbonation is a plus for me. 

Rating: 9.5

Bourbon Limeade

bourbon

limeade

lime wedge garnish

So this one was fine. Good. But I was missing the carbonation. Just not as crisp as the one with ginger ale. 

Rating: 8.4

Kentucky Mule

bourbon

ginger ale

fresh lime juice

lime wedge garnish

I was so excited for this one. It's basically the Ginger Bourbon plus lime, which is one of my favorite flavors. So I was shocked that this one didn't work. The fresh lime juice felt sour, not in a good way, and overpowered the ginger ale. I even like Moscow Mules, but this one didn't hit right.

Rating: 6.5

Bourbon Sidecar

bourbon 

grand mariner

fresh lime juice

fresh orange juice

splash of ginger ale

I wasn't sure if this was going to work at all. I started with the bourbon, grand mariner, squeezes of lime, squeezes of orange and tasted it. Was okay, a bit strong, and missing something. So I just added a splash of ginger ale. Just a little, I didn't want to overpower the other ingredients. And it worked. It's pretty nice. The hints of orange play nice with the liquor and there's not too much lime or ginger to be dominant. Pleasingly balanced. (Though more ingredients than the others. Probably going to be a while before I revisit this one.)

Rating: 8.8

So what did I learn? Somehow the best drink is also the simplest. All I need for a good cocktail is a good ginger ale and a good bourbon like Buffalo Trace or Maker's Mark.

Best Movies I Saw in 2023

I started doing this last year, so let's do it again. 

As of today, I've marked that I've watched 1141 films all-time, and 111 this year.

Last year, I was at 1070 all-time films. So of the 111 this year, 71 were new and 40 were ones I had seen before.

Top 5 Movies That Came Out in 2023

For the record I saw both Barbie and Oppenheimer and they're not sniffing this list. 

5. The Killer

4. Derren Brown: Showman

3. John Wick 4

2. Missing

1. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

I was about to do a top 5 I saw for the first time in 2023, but the only addition would have been Top Gun Maverick (2022). 

So instead I'll just do this, without any restrictions on when it came out or whether or not I had seen it before.:

Top 10 Movies I Saw in 2023

This year was different because I rewatched all the Wick and MI movies in preparation for their latest installments. Honorable mention to The Next Three Days and Law Abiding Citizen. 

10. Minority Report

9. Missing

8. John Wick Chapter 3 Parabellum

7. Back to the Future

6. Back to the Future: Part Two

5. Mission Impossible: Fallout

4. John Wick Chapter 2

3. Almost Famous

2. Groundhog Day

1. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation

- - -

As a little bonus content, I also made 4 lists to capture my personal favorites and preferences across different franchises.

Clearing Out My Saved Memes Folder

Here's a low-effort end of the year post for you. I went through my images saved from Reddit folder. Here you go. 

Chiefs WR Room

Ever since Tyreek left, the Chiefs haven't had a WR1. For the last two years, it's been WR by committee. In training camp I thought it felt like we had five WR2s. But that's not the case. 

Here's where the room stands right now, in Week 15 2023:

Rashee Rice is WR1

Justin Watson is WR2

Toney is WR3

MVS is WR4

Skyy Moore is WR5

That's their position on the team as of this moment. But where do those players actually fit on a decent offense?

Rashee Rice should be a WR3. The exciting rookie emerging, learning from 2 established guys.

Justin Watson should be a WR4. He can come up with a big play on 3rd down once or twice a game, but he's not a go-to guy.

Toney should be off the team. I'm not joking.

MVS should be a WR5. He's basically Justin Watson with worse hands. Send him deep to keep them honest, should only be used as a decoy.

Skyy Moore should be inactive. If there was an injury above, sure next man up. Otherwise, healthy scratch.

So there you go. Rice is good enough to see consistent snaps. If your WR2, has a hamstring injury, Rice could fill that role for a few weeks. 

Basically we're nicely filling out the WR3, WR4, and WR5 positions. 

Just have two open slots at the top of the room. No biggie. 

- - -

Look, obviously every fan would want a top 10 receiver on their team. Let's name some guys.

Hill, Jefferson, Kupp, AJ Brown, Amon Ra, Keenan Allen, Diggs, Chase, Deebo, Evans. There's 10 names. 

I'm not even asking for a top 10 guy. 

But an average WR1, someone like Garrett Wilson or Michael Pittman.

And then a WR2 like Tee Higgins or Tyler Lockett.

Two guys would be the difference between getting the bye and not. 

Week 15 Playoff Picture

There are 5 teams with a point differential above 100+. And the defending champions are not one of them. 

If you sort by winning percentage instead, here are the top teams:

So the Cowboys are frauds who can't beat good teams or win on the road. 

Look at the Eagles and Lions point differential. Red flag. Not to mention the Lions playoff history doesn't inspire confidence.

So the actual good teams are:

49ers

Ravens

Dolphins

Bills

Except the Bills are 9th in the AFC. So they're essentially a top-5 team in the NFL but they have work to do to make the playoffs. 

Here's the live look at Super Bowl odds:

So if you believe them, we're headed for a rematch of Super Bowl 47, the Blackout Bowl, featuring 49ers and Ravens.

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There's only 3 weeks left in the regular season. Which means only two more times after today to be thinking about cross-offs and hopefuls. So let's get into it.

AFC

Actually eliminated: Patriots, Jets, Titans

Cross-Offs: Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Steelers

Playoff Teams: Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, AFC South Winner

The next most likely playoff team according to the NYTimes is the Browns, who are on their 4th QB of the year. And it's Joe Flacco. Real football analysis is really hard. So I tend to focus on the quarterback first and foremost and I tend to be right more than I'm wrong on my NFL predictions. So to see this Browns team winning despite the QB room, it shows that sometimes you have to consider more than one position. 

NYT gives the Bills a 71% chance to make the playoffs, which is good, but not as high as you would think for a team that might be the scariest in the league. 

So beyond Ravens/Dolphins/Chiefs, there are 4 AFC spots up for grabs for 6 teams. Here they are in order of NYT percentages:

Browns. Jaguars. Bills. Texans. Colts. Bengals. 

Looking at the schedule, it still looks like Jaguars division to lose. 

Okay, so I just did a quick ESPN Playoff Machine just to see. I see the Broncos winning out over Patriots, Chargers, Raiders. If that happens, the Bills would have to beat the Dolphins, 2-1 does not get Bills in over Broncos. 

So if I have the Broncos lose their last game to the Raiders, and Bills lose to Dolphins, then the Colts grab the 7th seed. 

But then you let the Bills win out and all of a sudden they're the 4th seed and Miami is a wild-card team. 

Then I switched the Ravens losing to the Dolphins in week 17, going along with Ravens losing to the 49ers next week. 

That's all it took to get this:

Chiefs get the bye and Ravens are a wild-card. The work for the Ravens is not done yet.

For now, I'd say yes to Browns, Jags, Bills. Quiet yes to Texans assuming they get Stroud back. Bengals would not surprise me at all.

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NFC

Actually eliminated: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders

Cross-Offs: Bears, Giants, Packers, Falcons, Seahawks

Playoff Teams: 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Bucs, Rams

1 spot left for Vikings, Saints

Vikings schedule is harder. So Saints and Bucs make the playoffs? Wild.